Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued opinions on improving housing quality, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels [1] - The policy emphasizes the construction of quality affordable housing and the transformation of old houses into "good houses" [1] Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foundational system for real estate credit, focusing on the implementation of financial policies to support the stable development of the real estate market [3] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which will focus on generating stable cash flows through asset-backed securities [4] Regional Development - Shenzhen's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality real estate development, targeting affordable housing and improved commodity housing to address housing issues for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5] Market Trends - In 2025, land sales revenue in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with Beijing's land sales amounting to approximately 142.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8% from the previous year [6] - Four major real estate companies, including Poly Developments and China Overseas, are expected to achieve sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Company News - Vanke plans to hold a meeting to discuss the extension of a domestic bond repayment, proposing to delay the principal repayment date by one year [9] - Country Garden has set December 30, 2025, as the effective date for its debt restructuring plan, which has been approved by the Hong Kong High Court [10] - CIFI Holdings announced the successful completion of its overseas debt restructuring, reducing its debt by approximately 38 billion yuan [11] - Longfor Group reported significant progress in its domestic debt restructuring, with over 62% of its remaining bonds being addressed through various options [12]

Group 1 - The overall performance of real estate companies is expected to continue bottoming out in 2025, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. Among typical real estate companies, 24% reported year-on-year growth, with 12 companies showing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The confidence and expectations of homebuyers are still in the process of recovery, prompting real estate companies to focus on improving their internal capabilities and product quality [1] - Recent meetings held by various ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, have outlined key work for 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality industrial development, and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments, such as the announcement from the Ministry of Finance regarding the value-added tax on personal housing sales and changes to purchase and loan restrictions in Beijing, are expected to enhance market activity [2] - The real estate market fundamentals remain weak, but there are small, positive developments in policy, necessitating ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals. Short to medium-term patience is advised for the real estate development sector, with a focus on core assets in commercial real estate [2] - Recommendations include real estate stocks with "good credit, good city, good product," companies that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments, local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, and property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the real estate industry chain listed on the Hong Kong stock market include Sunac China (01918), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), Longfor Group (00960), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Overseas Development (00688), and Jianfa International (01908) [3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of real estate companies is expected to continue bottoming out in 2025, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance [1] - Among typical real estate companies, 24% reported year-on-year performance growth, with 12 companies showing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The confidence and expectations of homebuyers are still in the process of recovery, prompting real estate companies to enhance their internal capabilities and product quality [1] Group 2 - Recent policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and the announcement of a new value-added tax policy on personal housing sales, are expected to boost market activity [2] - The real estate market fundamentals remain weak, but there are small, positive developments on the policy front that warrant ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals [2] - Recommendations include focusing on real estate stocks with good credit, good cities, and good products, as well as companies that can manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed real estate companies include Sunac China (01918), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), Longfor Group (00960), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Overseas Development (00688), and Jianfa International (01908) [3]

2026年翩然而至。回顾2025年，房企销售哪家强？ 岁末年初，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构分别发布销售额排行榜榜单， 2025年，保利发展蝉联销冠，与中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国位居前五位，而万科跌出前五。 虽然2025年房企整体业绩延续筑底态势，但可喜的是，部分企业业绩呈现出回暖。据克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研 究中心统计，2025年累计业绩同比增长的房企占比为24%，其中同比增幅大于30%的企业数量占到12家。 保利发展蝉联销冠，金茂晋位、万科跌出前五 根据中指研究院和亿翰智库发布的百强房企销售榜单（全口径销售额）显示，保利发展、绿城中国的销售额为 2530亿元和2519亿元，分别位居冠军和亚军。中海地产销售额为2512亿元，华润置地销售额为2336亿元，分别位 居第三位和第四位，招商蛇口以1960亿元的销售额位居第五名。 | 排名 | ग्रह के बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में कि में बाद में कि को में ब ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that in 2025, real estate companies maintain a positive attitude towards land acquisition, with the top 100 companies acquiring a total of 964 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The top three companies in terms of new value added are China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with new values of 203.1 billion yuan, 193.6 billion yuan, and 143.6 billion yuan respectively [2] - The land acquisition trend shows a "high at the beginning and low at the end" pattern, with a more than 30% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, followed by a decrease in the fourth quarter due to reduced land auction activities [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the land transfer fees in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing exceeded 140 billion yuan, leading the nation, as these cities are favored by real estate companies due to strong population inflow and resilient demand [3] - The competition for high-quality land parcels is intensifying, with some plots achieving record high total land prices or floor prices [3] - Joint acquisitions and mergers are becoming more common in first and second-tier cities, with 14 out of 40 residential land transactions in Beijing being won by joint ventures [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales for the year [3] - 24 companies reported year-on-year growth in performance, with some experiencing significant recovery [3] - Central and state-owned enterprises performed well overall, with 42% of them reporting performance growth [3] - High-quality properties and urban renewal have become new focal points, prompting companies to enhance their internal capabilities [3] Company Performance - The top companies by operational amount include: - Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan - China Overseas Land & Investment: 239.2 billion yuan - Poly Developments: 232.8 billion yuan - China Resources Land: 210.1 billion yuan - China Merchants Shekou: 185.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The top companies by operational area include: - Greentown China: 1,208 million square meters - Poly Developments: 1,126.2 million square meters - China Overseas Land & Investment: 1,044.2 million square meters - Vanke: 950.7 million square meters - China Merchants Shekou: 688 million square meters [5][6] Market Trends - The overall market is characterized by a continued bottoming trend, with a focus on quality properties and urban renewal as key areas for growth [3] - Companies are encouraged to strengthen their internal capabilities to adapt to changing market conditions [3]