证券研究报告 中国移动 (600941 CH/941 HK) 港股通 经营稳步推进，AI 直接收入高速增长 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 10 月 21 日│中国内地/中国香港 通信运营 中国移动发布2025年前三季度业绩：公司营业收入同比增长0.4%至7946.7 亿元；归母净利润同比增长 4.0%至 1153.5 亿元，延续稳健增长态势。公司 单三季度营业收入同比增长2.5%至2509.0亿元，归母净利润同比增长1.4% 至 311.2 亿元。数智化时代，公司在"AI+"赛道迎来了更广阔的发展机遇， 网、云、端各项业务均有望受益，长期而言，我们看好公司作为全球电信运 营商龙头的经营韧性与竞争力，维持"买入"评级。 个人市场进一步深化存量客户运营，家庭市场保持量价齐升态势 个人市场方面，公司进一步加强细分市场拓展，深化存量经营、价值经营， 不断巩固市场根基，截至 9M25，公司移动客户数达到 10.09 亿户，移动 ARPU 为 48.0 元。家庭市场仍然表现优异，保持着量价齐升的态势，公司 有线宽带用户数达到 3.29 亿户，家庭客户综合 ARPU 同比增长 2.8%至 44.4 元，我们认为这得益于 ...

业绩公布后，瑞银微调对其预测，维持2025至2027年收入预估不变，同时将净利润预估小幅下调0%至 1%，以反映宏观逆风下盈利能力略降。瑞银将DCF模型前移三个月，并将目标价从102港元微降至100 港元，这意味着2026年预测股息率为5.7%，而当前交易水平的股息率为6.7%。 瑞银发表报告指，中国移动第三季服务收入为2162亿元，按年增长0.8%，符合市场预期。受宏观逆风 影响，其EBITDA按年下降1.7%至794亿元，较市场预期低3%。净利润按年微增1.4%，主要因资本支出 见顶后折旧与摊销费用减少，部分抵销营运费用增加的影响。 ...

花旗发表报告指，中国移动第三季营收按年增长2.5%至2510亿元，较市场预期高1.2%；服务营收按年 微增0.8%至2160亿元。EBITDA按年下降1.7%至790亿元，较市场预期低2.1%，主要受营运费用按年增 加5%所拖累。净利润按年增长1.4%至310亿元，较市场预期低1.7%。该行予其"买入"评级，目标价为 105.1港元。 ...

具体到个股来看，中际旭创、新易盛、立讯精密获净流入35.63亿元、26.20亿元、18.62亿元。 净流出方面，寒武纪、兖矿能源、中国移动遭抛售3.75亿元、3.43亿元、2.82亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) 主力资金早间净流入电子、机械设备、通信等板块，净流出煤炭板块。 ...

Core Insights - China Mobile reported a total revenue of 250.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1][11] - The net profit for the same period was 31.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][20] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 73% [7][9] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from telecommunications services was 216.2 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while product sales and other revenues reached 34.7 billion yuan, growing by 14.8% [11] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 60.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [16] - The operating profit margin was stable, supported by a reduction in operating expenses [20] Business Segments - Mobile business revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year, despite an increase in mobile users to 1.009 billion, which grew by approximately 4 million users quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - Broadband business continued to grow, with user numbers reaching 329 million, an increase of 5.8 million users quarter-on-quarter [3][4] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was approximately 41.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The company expects a total capital expenditure of 151.2 billion yuan for the year, with an estimated 35 billion yuan for Q4 [5] - The tax-adjusted cash operating profit for the quarter was 29.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [5][20] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased shares and distributed dividends totaling 54.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, aligning closely with previous expectations [7] - The static dividend yield is approximately 6%, which is attractive compared to declining bank interest rates [9][10] Market Position and Valuation - China Mobile's market position remains strong, with a significant user base and stable performance in a competitive environment [4][9] - The current market capitalization is 1.7 trillion yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 11 times for 2026 [9]

Group 1: Technology Developments - DeepSeek-AI team released an open-source model DeepSeek-OCR, which compresses long text contexts using visual modalities, capable of generating over 200,000 pages of training data daily on a single A100-40G GPU [2] - IBM partnered with AI company Groq to enhance enterprise AI deployment, allowing customers to access Groq's inference technology on watsonx Orchestrate [7] - Baidu is set to officially launch its Xiaodu AI glasses at the Baidu World 2025 conference in November, with plans for a year-end release [16] Group 2: Market Performance - Apple's iPhone 17 series saw strong early sales in China and the US, with a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 series, leading to a historic high in Apple's stock price and a market cap of $3.89 trillion [3] - JD.com reported that over 52,000 brands experienced a sales increase of over 300% during the preliminary "Double 11" shopping event, with significant growth in consumer electronics and AI-related products [4] - Douyin e-commerce revealed that over 41,000 merchants achieved a 500% increase in live-stream sales during the first phase of "Double 11," with a 900% increase in merchants generating over 100 million yuan in sales [5] Group 3: Financial Results - CATL reported a net profit of 18.55 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a 41.21% year-on-year increase [11] - China Mobile announced a net profit of 115.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth, with a total operating revenue of 794.7 billion yuan [12] - iFlytek reported a net profit of 172 million yuan for Q3 2025, a significant increase of 202.40% year-on-year, with total revenue of 6.078 billion yuan [13] Group 4: Industry Trends - The production of industrial and service robots in China has seen significant growth, with a 9.7% increase in the value added of the digital product manufacturing industry in the first three quarters of the year [8] - Samsung is accelerating the development of HBM4, set to be unveiled at the Samsung Tech Day from October 27 to 31, while Micron's Chief Business Officer predicts a continued tight DRAM market through 2026 [9][10] - Ant Group's future Hainan information technology company increased its registered capital to 3.5 billion yuan, a staggering 34,900% increase [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US and China are set to return to the negotiation table, which has positively impacted stock markets, with US stocks rising and Hong Kong stocks opening higher [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159960) increased by 1.60%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as China Life (02628) up 6.21%, SMIC (00981) up 4.39%, and Xpeng Motors-W (09868) up 4.18% [1] - The US President has identified three major issues for negotiation: rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for equal and respectful negotiations [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a period of volatility before a potential upward trend, driven by factors such as continuous innovation in the Chinese tech industry and a low probability of high tariffs being implemented [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party discussing the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to boost risk appetite among investors [1] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to lead to sustained capital inflows, improving fundamentals and profit expectations, which may drive a slow bull market trend in Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF closely tracks the performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which includes all H-share companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - As of October 20, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index include Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and China Construction Bank (00939), collectively accounting for 55.33% of the index [2]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index (恒指) rose by 611 points or 2.4%, closing at 25,858 points[1] - National Index (國指) increased by 220 points or 2.5%, closing at 9,232 points[1] - Hang Seng Tech Index (恒生科技指數) gained 172 points or 3%, closing at 5,933 points[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 239.16 billion[1] Economic Indicators - Unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% from June-August to July-September, exceeding market expectations[3] - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a year-to-date growth of 5.2%[3] - Industrial production in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[3] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, contrary to the expected increase of 0.1%[3] Corporate Performance - JD.com (京東-SW) reported over 52,000 brands with sales growth exceeding 300% year-on-year, and AI-related products saw nearly 200% growth[4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (寧德時代) achieved revenue of CNY 283.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%[4] - China Mobile (中國移動) reported revenue of CNY 794.7 billion for the first three quarters, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Mobile reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing modest growth in revenue and net profit, with a notable increase in other business income [1] Group 2 - For the third quarter of 2025, China Mobile's operating revenue reached 250.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - The main business revenue was 216.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, while other business revenue was 34.7 billion yuan, growing by 14.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - EBITDA for the period was 79.4 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.7% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, China Mobile had a total of 1.009 billion mobile users, with 622 million being 5G network users [1] - The mobile ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for the first three quarters of the year was 48 yuan [1] Group 4 - In the home market, as of September 30, 2025, China Mobile had 329 million wired broadband users, with 288 million being home broadband customers [1] - The comprehensive ARPU for home customers in the first three quarters was 44.4 yuan [1] Group 5 - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Mobile's total operating revenue was 794.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 115.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4% [1]

Group 1 - The top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 1.284 billion, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.061 billion, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 754 million [1][2] - The top three stocks with net outflows from southbound funds are Zijin Mining (02899) with -390 million, Kuaishou-W (01024) with -342 million, and SMIC (00981) with -299 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) leads with 81.55%, followed by China National Freight (00598) with 73.16%, and Far East Horizon (03360) with 62.84% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows include Yingfu Fund (02800) at 1.284 billion with a net inflow ratio of 9.39%, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 1.061 billion with a net inflow ratio of 8.90% [2] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows include Zijin Mining (02899) at -390 million with a net outflow ratio of -15.10%, and Kuaishou-W (01024) at -342 million with a net outflow ratio of -15.96% [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflow ratios are Gushengtang (02273) at -49.31%, Weishi Jiajie (00856) at -45.22%, and Green Power Environmental Protection (01330) at -44.61% [3]