智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，3月重点城市新房成交同比增长3.5%，二手房成交同比 增长37%，二手房成交占比继续提升。核心城市表现亮眼。北上广深成杭二手房成交套数同比增速均在 30%以上。百强房企3月销售金额降幅扩大，主要系二手房替代和新开盘项目减少，但核心城市项目首 开去化率明显提升。土地市场延续火热，核心城市单价"地王"频现，推高土拍溢价率。3月全国宅地成 交溢价率为17.15%，环比提升4.4个百分点。贸易战背景下针对内需的宏观政策积极有为、靠前发力， 看好房地产行业板块整体表现。 中信建投证券主要观点如下： 新房成交延续止跌，二手房成交处于历史高位 一季度重点40城新房成交面积2580万方，同比增长4.5%。其中3月新房成交面积为1124万平，同比增长 3.5%。在新开盘项目收缩背景下，3月重点城市新房成交面积仍实现正增长，且一线城市新房成交面积 同比增速达到两位数。二手房成交景气度好于新房，一季度重点13城二手房成交面积为1960万方，同比 增长33%，成交量处于历史高位。其中3月二手房成交面积为850万方，同比增长37%，北上广深成杭六 个核心城市一季度二手房成交套数增速均在30% ...

1、一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 | ◎ 克而瑞研究中心 | | --- | | PART1 榜单发布 | 新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 0 2 2、新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 3、超过半数企业新拓面积同比增长，呈现"头部稳健、腰部发力"格局 4、品牌传播力保持强者恒强，AI、科技赋能代建业务成各家企业突破口 一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 0 1 PART2 榜单解读 2025年一季度，代建新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面4534万平方米，同比增加6%，较2024年全行业17% 的增速进一步放缓，竞争仍十分激烈，代建项目获取难度不断增加。 按一季度新增建面分布来看，绿城管理仍然以"断层"优势保持龙头地位，一季度新拓面积几乎是第二名2 倍。有3家企业新增建面超过300万平方米，分别是旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团，基本以政府代建项目 新拓为主，其中旭辉建管一季度政府代建比例达到56%，润地管理政府新签规模约301万平方米。另，有6 家房企新增建面位于200-300万区间，包括 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand situation in the commercial real estate sector does not determine individual operational results, with the ability to outperform peers being crucial for success [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased external uncertainties are expected to boost the value of shopping centers as domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic foundation for new development [1] - Shopping centers are vital physical spaces for consumer activities, and recent government initiatives aim to enhance consumption infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Major brand shopping centers are outperforming retail sales and rental growth, with projected average sales growth of 16.4% and rental income growth of 16.6% for three leading companies in 2024 [2] - The same companies are expected to see same-store sales growth of 6.2% and same-store rental growth of 3.1%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Expansion and Management - The three leading companies plan to open a total of 47 new shopping centers in 2024, with significant investments in both light and heavy asset models [3] - The average same-store sales growth for these companies exceeds the industry average by 6.2 percentage points, showcasing the effectiveness of quality management [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - There are over 6,000 shopping centers in China, but only about 25% are managed by high-quality management companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage for these firms [4] - Established brands have geographical advantages in tenant selection and consumer behavior, which helps them maintain higher rental growth compared to the overall retail sector [4] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The development of various financial instruments like public and private REITs is driving the revaluation of commercial real estate assets, with a focus on stable cash flow properties [5] - The recognition of quality management platforms is expected to expand beyond first-tier cities by 2025, enhancing their market presence [5]

文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 李俊波 刘河维 2 0 2 4年，华润万象生活、龙湖集团和新城控股的购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，同店租金跑赢行 业。优质购物中心的抗风险能力显著，购物中心的先发优势显著。我们认为，随着金融市场的发 展，资金不会成为限制商业地产公司发展的要素，商业地产公司（无论轻重）价值取决于稀缺地段 +运营能力。我们看好中国核心商业地产企业的全面向上重估，包括轻资产平台的价值发现，和重 资产公司如的估值提升。 ▍ 外部不确定性增大，提振消费利好购物中心价值。 目前，外需存在较大不确定性，提振内需是构建新发展格局的战略基点。购物中心是承载居民消 费，娱乐，体验，休闲的重要物理载体，我们预计将受益于内需提振。近期，财政部、住建部要 求加强消费基础设施建设，改造城市空间以满足文化、旅游、餐饮、休闲娱乐需求，以中央财政 支持以刺激内需。 ▍ 头部品牌购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，租金增长跑赢行业。 我们基于公司公告数据测算，三大上市公司华润万象生活、龙湖集团、新城控股2 0 2 4年在营购物 中心销售额平均增长1 6 . 4%，同店销售额平均增长6 . 2%，租金及管理费收入平均增长1 6 . 6%，同 店租金平 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group achieved a total contract sales amount of RMB 16.95 billion in the first quarter of the year, indicating strong sales performance [1] Group Summary - As of the end of March, the cumulative total contract sales amount reached RMB 16.95 billion, with a total sales area of 1.188 million square meters [1] - In March alone, the total contract sales amount was RMB 7.01 billion, with a sales area of 485,000 square meters [1] - The contract sales amount attributable to the company's shareholders in March was RMB 4.74 billion, with a corresponding sales area of 352,000 square meters [1]

龙湖集团(00960.HK)：3月累计合约销售额169.5亿元人民币，1-3月合约销售额70.1亿元人民币。 ...

Core Insights - Longfor Group announced a total contract sales amount of RMB 16.95 billion as of the end of March 2025, with a total sales area of 1.188 million square meters [1] - In March alone, the total contract sales amount reached RMB 7.01 billion, with a sales area of 485,000 square meters [1] - The contract sales amount attributable to shareholders in March was RMB 4.74 billion, covering an area of 352,000 square meters [1] Sales Breakdown - In March, the contract sales amount by region was as follows: RMB 1.75 billion in the West, RMB 1.67 billion in the Bohai Rim, RMB 1.98 billion in the Yangtze River Delta, RMB 0.72 billion in Central China, and RMB 0.89 billion in South China [1] - As of the end of March, the company achieved operating revenue of approximately RMB 6.55 billion, with a tax-inclusive amount of about RMB 7 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, technology, and service as it navigates through challenging times [1][2][17]. Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - The end of the purchase restrictions marks the most relaxed environment for the real estate sector in 20 years, signaling the conclusion of a real estate bull market [2]. - The term "bottoming out" has become common in government assessments of the real estate market, indicating a shift in focus towards stabilizing the industry [3][4]. - The government is implementing policies to ensure project delivery and financial security while exploring new development models to help companies recover from losses [4][5]. Liquidity and Delivery Challenges - The lack of liquidity in the real estate market poses significant risks, as it discourages consumer purchases and hampers cash recovery for companies [7][8]. - The period from 2021 to 2024 is critical for delivery pressures, with 2024 potentially being the last major delivery year for the industry [10]. - The government has introduced measures to stimulate liquidity, including policies focused on timely delivery, financial safety, and ensuring quality housing [9][12]. Shift in Housing Demand - There is a notable shift in housing demand from mere availability to quality, with the urban residential unit ratio reaching 1.07 in 2023, indicating a transition from "having a home" to "having a good home" [15]. - The emphasis on "good housing" is expected to intensify by 2025, prompting leading real estate companies to enhance their focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [15]. New Development Models - The concept of a "new development model" has gained traction, with government reports emphasizing the need for affordable housing and a coordinated mechanism involving people, housing, land, and finance [20][21]. - Real estate companies are encouraged to diversify their business models beyond traditional home sales, exploring areas such as rental housing, property management, and real estate agency services [22]. Financial Resilience and Business Diversification - Many companies are beginning to adopt long-term strategies and light asset operations, supported by government policies [24]. - For instance, Longfor Group has successfully integrated development, operation, and service sectors, becoming one of the few profitable companies in 2024 [26]. - Longfor's operational and service segments generated significant revenue, contributing to overall financial stability [27][32]. Future Growth and Market Potential - The expansion of the middle class in first- and second-tier cities is expected to drive demand for high-quality shopping centers and premium rental apartments [35]. - The shift towards service-oriented operations in commercial real estate is being supported by government initiatives to revitalize existing assets [37]. - The strategy of "space as a service" is being embraced by companies like Longfor, which has diversified its business portfolio to include commercial investment and asset management [40]. Conclusion - As the industry transitions from capital-driven growth to capability-driven growth, companies must leverage policy benefits to enhance service quality and operational efficiency, positioning themselves for success in a competitive landscape [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in response to the ongoing trade war, emphasizing the need for domestic demand expansion [2][3]. - It notes a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 23% week-on-week and 26% year-on-year in April [4][7]. - The report indicates that the government is implementing policies to stabilize the market, including the cancellation of housing transfer restrictions in Nanjing and the expansion of housing fund withdrawal policies [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - New housing sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.093 million square meters last week, a week-on-week decrease of 23.4% [4]. - Year-on-year, new housing sales in April are down 26%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 21% decline and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 49% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - Second-hand housing sales in 13 key cities fell by 26.2% week-on-week, with April sales down 15% year-on-year [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year to date show a 26.5% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Housing Inventory - In 15 key cities, 710,000 square meters of new housing were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 2.08, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.71 million square meters, reflecting a 0.9% decrease week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses macroeconomic policies, including the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports and the rise in manufacturing PMI to 50.5%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [32][33]. - It highlights local government initiatives, such as Nanjing's cancellation of housing transfer restrictions and the expansion of housing fund policies in various cities [32][33]. - The report also notes the active land market in core cities, with significant land sales and project launches reported in the first quarter of 2025 [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by industry fluctuations, but its diversified business model provides solid support for profits. The debt structure continues to improve, gradually alleviating repayment pressure [6][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 127.47 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 29.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The operational and service segments contributed significantly to the company's profits, with service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total revenue [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 127.47 billion yuan, down 29.6% year-on-year. The core profit was 6.97 billion yuan, a decline of 38.6% year-on-year. The gross margin was 16.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from 2023 [1][2]. - The operational and service business segments showed resilience, with a gross margin of 75.0% for the service segment [2][5]. Sales Performance - The company recorded a contract sales amount of 101.12 billion yuan in 2024, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.124 million square meters, a decrease of 34.0% year-on-year [3]. - The average sales price per square meter was 14,200 yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [3]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was 176.32 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with cash on hand at 49.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times [4]. Operational Resilience - The company's rental income from operational businesses reached 13.52 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, with shopping center rental income rising by 7% to 10.98 billion yuan [5]. - The company opened 11 new shopping centers in 2024, bringing the total to 89, with an occupancy rate of 97% [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to 7.06 billion yuan and 7.25 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.51 billion yuan [6].