国际摩擦再起，如何看待国产替代的投资机会 20251012 摘要 中国在贸易摩擦中采取更主动姿态，通过先出牌后退让的策略，旨在促 成双方都能接受的结果，增强国际谈判话语权，并为国内市场带来稳定 因素，投资者应关注其中蕴含的投资机会。 科技板块分化明显，消费类科技受情绪冲击可能回调，但回调即是介入 机会，如立讯精密案例；国产替代是长期机遇，尤其在半导体先进制程 和封装技术等领域，国产替代率提升迅速。 半导体产业链国产替代取得显著进展，部分设备品类国产替代率已超 50%，但光刻机等高端设备仍有差距。长存和长鑫的存储器扩产项目顺 利推进，预计将持续至明年上半年。 当前形势下，可逢低布局受情绪冲击的消费类科技和具有长期发展潜力 的国产替代领域，如半导体、信创等。中美科技博弈长期存在，这些领 域具备长期投资价值。 中美博弈促使订单回流国内晶圆厂，稼动率全球领先。成熟制程扩产问 题得到解决，28 纳米到 14 纳米扩产比例逐步提升，中芯国际和华为等 企业产能储备不断增加。 Q&A 当前中美贸易摩擦对市场的影响如何？与 4 月份相比有哪些不同？ 当前中美贸易摩擦对市场确实带来了一定的担忧，导致包括美股和 A 股在内的 多个 ...

Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance in the first two trading days after the National Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.03 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.26% and 3.86% respectively [2][3] - Over 54% of stocks rose during the week, with 47 stocks gaining over 15% and 14 stocks dropping more than 15% [2] International Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines on October 10, with the Dow Jones down 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq down 820.20 points (3.56%) [3][5] - European stock indices also fell, with the FTSE 100 down 81.93 points (0.86%), the CAC 40 down 123.36 points (1.53%), and the DAX down 369.79 points (1.50%) [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with WTI crude oil falling by $2.61 to $58.90 per barrel (down 4.24%) and Brent crude down $2.49 to $62.73 per barrel (down 3.82%) [4] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports, emphasizing that China's export control measures are a normal legal action to safeguard national security [6] - The Chinese government criticized the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and excessive use of export controls, which it claims harm legitimate business interests and disrupt international trade [6] Industry Insights - The Shanghai government announced measures to accelerate the development of industries such as silicon photonics, 6G, fourth-generation semiconductors, and brain-like intelligence [9] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that the approved loan amount for white list projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of commercial housing projects [10] Trust Industry Updates - Trust companies have been instructed to investigate their reverse repurchase leverage ratios and ensure compliance with regulatory limits [11] Service-Oriented Manufacturing - A new implementation plan aims to enhance the role of service-oriented manufacturing in high-quality development by 2028, focusing on key tasks such as technology innovation and standard system construction [12][13] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will continue its upward trend, supported by stable inflows of capital and expected earnings growth in the third quarter [18]

Group 1 - Allwinner Technology expects a net profit growth of 72.2% to 92.06% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 272.54% to 287.34% for the first three quarters [1] - Semiconductor companies like Cambrian and ASML are set to release their earnings reports [1] Group 2 - Qualcomm is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged antitrust violations [1] - China is pushing for the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. in Shanghai [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting commercial trials for satellite IoT services to enhance satellite communication market supply [1] Group 3 - The number of new A-share accounts in September reached 2.9372 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.73% [1] - SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have seen significant reductions in their margin calculation rates to 70% and 50% respectively [1] - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel have raised rare earth prices, marking the highest month-on-month increase in two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of margin trading collateral and conversion rates by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Western Securities reflects a dynamic risk control strategy in response to the high valuations and losses of certain companies, particularly focusing on the stocks of SMIC and Bawei Storage [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Trading Adjustments - On October 10, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Western Securities announced adjustments to the margin trading collateral and conversion rates, effective from October 13 [1]. - The conversion rates for SMIC and Haiguang Information were raised from zero to 70%, while several other companies saw their rates adjusted to between 30% and 65% [1]. - Conversely, the conversion rates for Tongyu Heavy Industry and Chuangyitong were reduced from 65% to zero, indicating a mixed trend in adjustments [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Valuation Changes - Following the adjustments, stocks such as SMIC and Bawei Storage experienced significant declines, with SMIC's static P/E ratio exceeding 300, leading to its conversion rate being set to zero [1][2]. - As of October 10, the static P/E ratios for SMIC, Bawei Storage, and XianDao Intelligent were reported at 276.75, 279.33, and 299.93, respectively, allowing for the re-establishment of their conversion rates to 70% and 65% [2]. - The adjustments in conversion rates are seen as a reflection of brokerage firms' risk management practices, particularly for high-valuation and loss-making companies [2]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - The zero conversion rate indicates that while investors can still finance with sufficient margin, the stock cannot be used as collateral, impacting the available margin for further financing [2]. - For example, a stock with a market value of 1 million yuan that previously had a 70% conversion rate would provide 700,000 yuan in available margin, which would be lost if the conversion rate is set to zero [2].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese exports related to rare earths and key software, prompting a response from China's Ministry of Commerce, which emphasized that high tariffs are not the correct approach for bilateral relations [1] - China reiterated its unwillingness to engage in a trade war but stated it would take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights if the U.S. persists in its actions [1] Group 2: Shipping and Port Fees - The Ministry of Transport of China announced that starting from October 14, 2025, special port fees will be charged for U.S.-owned or operated vessels, including those with significant U.S. ownership [2] Group 3: Market Regulation and Antitrust - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for allegedly violating the Anti-Monopoly Law, particularly concerning its acquisition of Autotalks without proper notification [3] - The investigation follows Qualcomm's failure to comply with notification requirements after being advised to do so, leading to a formal inquiry into its business practices [3] Group 4: Industry Responses to U.S. Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, framing these actions as necessary for maintaining fair competition in international shipping and shipbuilding markets [4] Group 5: Infrastructure and Technology Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a plan to enhance new information infrastructure and promote the integration of computing power with industry applications from 2025 to 2028 [5] Group 6: Financial Adjustments in the Market - The margin financing and securities lending rates for SMIC and Beken Technology have been adjusted back to 70% and 50%, respectively, after previously being set to zero due to high static P/E ratios [6] - Wentech Technology announced that its control over Anshi Semiconductor is temporarily limited due to a ministerial order from the Dutch government, affecting operational efficiency but not economic rights [7] Group 7: Shareholder Actions - China Unicom plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.20% through various trading methods, aiming to optimize its capital structure while maintaining a positive outlook on the company's future [8] - CATL has repurchased 15.99 million shares for a total of RMB 4.386 billion, representing 0.3629% of its total A-share capital [9] Group 8: Commodity Pricing - Northern Rare Earth announced that the trading price for rare earth concentrate for Q4 2025 will be adjusted to RMB 26,205 per ton, reflecting a 37.13% increase from the previous quarter [10]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - China strengthens its rare earth export controls, limiting exports to military users and entities on a control list, which significantly impacts the U.S. semiconductor industry as China accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth production [15][20][21] - The world's first two-dimensional-silicon hybrid flash memory chip has been developed, outperforming current flash technologies and providing faster, lower-energy data support for AI and big data applications [16][22][26] - Upcoming semiconductor industry conferences aim to explore new development paths for China's semiconductor sector, focusing on advanced packaging and wafer manufacturing, which are crucial for enhancing global competitiveness [17][42][60] Summary by Sections Section 1: Rare Earth Security - China has implemented stricter export controls on rare earth materials, particularly for military applications, which could hinder U.S. semiconductor capabilities [15][20][21] - Rare earths are essential for semiconductor manufacturing, impacting various components and processes across the industry [21] Section 2: Hybrid Flash Memory Chip - The new hybrid chip integrates two-dimensional ultra-fast memory with mature silicon-based CMOS technology, marking a significant technological breakthrough [16][22][26] - This innovation positions China at the forefront of next-generation storage technology, crucial for AI and big data [22][41] Section 3: Semiconductor Industry Conferences - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Expo will gather industry leaders to discuss future directions and innovations [17][42] - The Third Generation Semiconductor Industry Cooperation Conference will focus on collaborative development and technological advancements in the semiconductor field [55][56] - The 2025 China Semiconductor Advanced Packaging Conference will address the integration of wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging technologies [60][61] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the semiconductor sector include North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, SMIC, and Huahong Semiconductor [18] - In the chip sector, recommended companies are Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Longxin Zhongke [18]

芯片小韭菜 . 以下文章来源于芯片小韭菜 ，作者芯片小韭菜 专注芯片行业及公司基本面研究，不提供操作建议。 先回顾一下4月的情况，我们在长假期间，特朗普宣布对全球的对等关税，我们宣布反制，然后长假后 第一个交易日（4月7号），我们大跌。之后双方继续互相加关税，但市场已经没有反应了，4月8号在底 部震荡，4月9号直接拉起，之后一路向上。 再看板块，4月7号是普跌。 半导体板块，4月8号企稳，9号拉出大阳线。 达链果链，8号继续大跌，9号大跌以后V起来。 红利消费等：8号大涨，9号震荡。 可以说，当时关税战初期，很多资金跑去红利避险，之后则是大力资金冲进了半导体，自主可控走得最 好，当周就实现了反包。 再详细回顾一下当时的半导体各分支。 当时因为反制加税，市场的龙头板块是模拟芯片。它们有些甚至4月7号就已经低开高走收红。龙头是纳 芯微。 再看自主可控的分支，代工，中芯国际7号中等跌幅，8号小涨，9号直接大阳线反包。设备，北方华创7 号，8号小跌，9号直接大阳线反包。算力，寒武纪7号大跌，8号企稳，9号大阳线差一点反包。EDA， 华大九天，7号小跌，8号9号连续大涨。 针对很多人对过去的学习，个人认为这次的最大跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the margin financing ratio for SMIC from 0% to 70% indicates a significant shift in the market's perception of the company's valuation and risk, allowing investors to leverage their positions again [1][3]. Group 1: Margin Financing Ratio Adjustment - SMIC's margin financing ratio was previously set at 0%, meaning its shares could not be used as collateral for financing [3]. - The new ratio of 70% means that a market value of 1 million yuan in SMIC shares can now support 700,000 yuan in margin financing, effectively reopening leverage for optimistic investors [3]. - This adjustment follows a recent drop in SMIC's static P/E ratio from over 300 times to around 200 times, allowing it to meet the criteria for the margin ratio increase [3]. Group 2: Market Confidence and Valuation - The change in margin financing ratios reflects a decrease in perceived risk for key technology stocks, indicating renewed confidence from brokers [4]. - The adjustment is not uniform; while SMIC and Haiguang Information were raised to 70%, other stocks like Tongyu Heavy Industry and Chuangyitong were reduced to 0%, showing a selective approach based on individual stock valuations and risks [3]. - The ability of stocks like SMIC to regain leverage support suggests that the market recognizes their long-term value, especially after a period of high valuation [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Implications - For medium to long-term investors, the adjustment signals a focus on stocks with reasonable valuations and strong fundamentals, rather than short-term price movements [4]. - The margin ratio change serves as a directional indicator for identifying technology stocks that are both reasonably valued and capable of maintaining performance in line with their valuations [4].

Group 1 - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs in response to stricter rare earth mineral export controls by other countries, raising concerns among investors about worsening trade relations [2][3] - The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.9%, the Nasdaq by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 by 2.71%, marking the largest single-day drop since April [3][5] - Major tech stocks suffered significant losses, with Broadcom down nearly 6%, Tesla over 5%, and Amazon close to 5% [3][5] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks plummeted, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 6.1% and a weekly decline of 8.37%, including NIO down over 10% and Bilibili down over 9% [4] - The North Rare Earth Company expects a net profit increase of 272.54% to 287.34% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan [20] Group 3 - Qualcomm is under investigation for allegedly violating antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Autotalks, as it failed to report the business concentration as required by Chinese antitrust law [2] - The price of rare earth concentrates has been raised significantly, with a 37% increase for the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, marking the largest increase since the second quarter of 2023 [35] Group 4 - The number of new A-share accounts in September increased by 60.73% year-on-year, with a total of 2.9372 million new accounts opened, the second-highest monthly figure this year [22] - The Chinese government is considering imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels starting October 14, 2025, as part of ongoing trade tensions [24] Group 5 - ByteDance announced a new employee subsidy policy for those laid off due to organizational adjustments, providing up to 12,000 yuan per month for a maximum of six months [17][18] - WuXi AppTec sold 30.3 million shares of its subsidiary WuXi AppTec Holdings, raising over 2.3 billion HKD [16]

Macro Economy - The central bank reported liquidity injection for September: SLF net injection of 1.9 billion, MLF net injection of 300 billion, PSL net withdrawal of 88.3 billion, short-term reverse repos net injection of 390.2 billion, and no public market treasury transactions [4][5] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments adjusted the technical requirements for energy-saving and new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle and vessel tax exemptions, effective from January 1, 2026, increasing the pure electric range requirement for plug-in hybrid and extended-range passenger cars from 43 km to 100 km [4] Investment News - A-shares opened lower and continued to decline, with significant drops in sectors like power batteries and MCU chips, while cement and shipping sectors showed strength. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% to 3897.03 points, with total trading volume of 2.53 trillion [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is investigating *ST Yuancheng for serious financial fraud, proposing fines totaling 37.45 million for the company and 42 million for five responsible individuals, with potential delisting procedures initiated [8] - New A-share accounts reached 2.9372 million in September, a year-on-year increase of 60.73%, marking the second-highest monthly figure this year [9] Company Movements - On October 10, reports indicated that Zong Fuli resigned from her positions at Wahaha Group on September 12, with internal sources suggesting the resignation was due to trademark compliance issues as she plans to launch a new brand "Wah Xiaozong" [11] - Qualcomm is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for failing to legally declare its acquisition of Autotalks, potentially violating antitrust laws [11] - Northern Rare Earth announced that the trading price for rare earth concentrates in Q4 will be adjusted to 26,205 yuan/ton, with price adjustments based on REO percentage changes [11]