67元支持 vs 74元阻力：中芯國際震盪中的輪證策略 隨著全球半導體行業在人工智慧（AI）等新興應用的驅動下市場情緒回暖，港股半導體板塊近期備受關注。作為行業龍頭，中芯國際（00981）在12月22日 一度漲超8%，收盤漲逾5%，成交額活躍。然而，在急漲之後，股價正逼近關鍵的技術分水嶺，短線走勢進入敏感時刻。截止今日（29日）股价最新报72 元，升幅1.34%。以下將結合截至12月29日的最新技術圖表、市場多空觀點及衍生工具數據，為投資者提供一份聚焦短線的分析與部署策略。 技術分析與關鍵價位 從技術面審視，中芯國際的股價正處於多空力量相互角力的關鍵位置。截至12月24日的數據顯示，股價在強勁反彈後，已成功收復10天移動平均線（約 66.64元），並正挑戰作為短期生命線的30天均線（約69.13元）。市場上一個廣泛的共識是，能否有效企穩於30日均線之上，將是判斷此輪反彈能否延續的 核心依據。根據分析，股價下方的兩級重要支持位分別位於67.2元（第一支持）和更為關鍵的64.3元（第二支持）。上行空間方面，能否有效突破74.1元的 第一阻力位至關重要，若能成功，下一目標將指向77.8元。 | | | 多個技術指標 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(沪) | 351678.88 | 34913.87 | 4.24 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 303154.80 | 30491.96 | 0.84 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(深) | 253217.00 | 41028.97 | 4.24 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 234722.00 | -79781.45 | 0.84 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 港股通(沪) | 220199.57 | -61168.26 | 0.59 | | 00941 | 中国移动 | 港股通(沪) | 182904.39 | -99213.87 | 0.37 | | 01398 | 工商银行 | 港股通(沪) | 171741.58 | 35664.34 | 0.64 | | 09880 | 优必选 | 港股通(沪) ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 成交活跃股方面，今日上榜个股中，南向资金成交金额最多的是中芯国际，合计成交额60.49亿港元， 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股成交额紧随其后，分别成交53.79亿港元、38.81亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，净 买入的个股共有8只，中芯国际净买入额为7.59亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股收盘股价上涨4.24%，中 国海洋石油净买入额为4.61亿港元，工商银行净买入额为3.57亿港元。净卖出金额最多的是盈富基金， 净卖出16.12亿港元，该股收盘股价上涨0.93%，腾讯控股、中国移动遭净卖出12.79亿港元、9.92亿港 元。 12月30日恒生指数上涨0.86%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为923.00亿港元，其中，买入成交442.28亿 港元，卖出成交480.72亿港元，合计净卖出金额38.45亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 331.61亿港元，买入成交153.22亿港元，卖出成交178.40亿港元，合计净卖出金额25.18亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额591.38亿港元，买入成交289.06亿港元，卖出成交302.33亿港元，合计净卖出金额 13.27亿港元。 今日上榜个股中，中芯 ...

中国芯片产业这几年走得真稳，尤其是中端，28纳米工艺已经玩得转转的，不光能自产，还能把价格压 下来卖出去。本来国际上这级别芯片一颗卖2500美元，大家都这么定着价，谁也不想先动。 可中芯国际直接甩出1500美元的价位，差不多六折，这得益于产业链从头到尾都国产化了。原材料采购 稳了，生产效率上去了，产量一爬升，成本自然就摊薄。 2024年底，这消息一出，亚洲市场那边订单就刷刷来，韩国三星和台湾台积电虽然强，但他们眼睛盯着 高端，没工夫在中端纠缠，中国正好捡了个空子。这不是一时冲动，而是战略性布局，先在中端站稳脚 跟，抢占份额，再图高端。 谁知道这步棋一走，欧美就坐不住了，阿斯麦的股价直接跌了16%，市值缩水不是闹着玩的。作为光刻 机老大，全球九成市场在它手里，这损失得心疼。 欧美企业不是没理由慌，他们依赖中国市场大得很，新能源汽车芯片这块儿，欧洲预计2027年市场能到 176亿美元，可要是销量上不去，全是空话。中国这边新能源汽车2024年卖了1286.6万辆，自给率目标 2025年冲70%，对外国芯片依赖越来越小。 中端发力 欧美震动 结果，美国商务部2024年12月2日又加了140个中国实体到管制清单，包括设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural prosperity, with strong demand for mature processes and specialty technologies. Domestic wafer manufacturing leaders, represented by SMIC, are operating at full capacity and have implemented price increases, indicating robust performance in a tight supply-demand environment [3][34] - The demand for AI computing continues to drive upgrades in high-end storage, with HBM prices rising and major players competing for next-generation technologies, highlighting a high prosperity trend in advanced storage and packaging testing [4][36] - The overall focus should be on domestic wafer manufacturing leaders and their upstream and downstream supply chains, as well as the AI-driven high-end hardware industry chain, which are currently key areas of interest [4][36] Industry Data Tracking Semiconductor Industry - In October 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, while China's semiconductor sales were $19.5 billion, up 18.5% year-on-year, indicating sustained strong demand in the semiconductor sector [24][29] - The domestic semiconductor equipment demand remains strong as the push for domestic substitution continues [24] Storage Chip Industry - Recent trends show a strong upward movement in DRAM prices, reflecting robust demand for high-performance memory from AI servers and next-generation PCs. NAND Flash prices are stable, with a gradual increase, while the overall storage chip industry is entering a new prosperity cycle [29][33] Consumer Electronics - The smartphone market is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with a significant increase in smartphone shipments in October 2025, driven by promotional events and new product launches [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the semiconductor chip industry, is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index outperforming other technology indices significantly this year, showing a cumulative increase of over 39% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index rose over 2%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index and other technology-related indices [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C ETF (159131) recorded a daily trading volume of 77.27 million yuan, recovering its 5-day and 20-day moving averages [2] - The ETF focuses on the "Hong Kong chip" industry, comprising 70% hardware and 30% software, and includes 42 hard-tech companies [7] Group 2: Key Companies and Developments - Semiconductor company SMIC plans to acquire 49% of its subsidiary, SMIC North, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, while also receiving a cash injection of $7.778 billion for SMIC South [3] - Notable stock performances include InnoCare rising over 15%, Midea rising over 11%, and UBTECH rising over 8% [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Chinese semiconductor market is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and expected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025 [5] - The domestic semiconductor industry is advancing from downstream manufacturing to upstream core equipment, materials, and software, driven by national policies and international dynamics [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in third-generation semiconductor materials, computing chips, RF communication chips, and high-bandwidth storage [5] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) has a current P/E ratio of 33.25, which is significantly lower than the P/E ratios of the ChiNext Index (41.04) and the Nasdaq 100 (36.23), indicating a favorable investment valuation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the semiconductor chip industry, is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index rising over 2%, significantly outperforming other technology indices [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index has a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1][10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology ETF (159131) recorded a single-day trading volume of 77.27 million yuan, recovering both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages [2][11]. Group 2: Key Stocks and Movements - Notable stock performances include InnoCare Pharma rising over 15%, Midea Group increasing over 11%, and UBTECH Robotics gaining over 8% [5][15]. - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and iFlytek also saw increases of over 4% [5][15]. Group 3: Industry Developments - SMIC plans to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, and will receive a cash injection of $7.778 billion for SMIC South [3][12]. - This capital operation is expected to create opportunities for domestic chips, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure [3][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and is expected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025 [4][13]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is making progress from downstream manufacturing to upstream core equipment, materials, and software, driven by national policies and international dynamics [4][13]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) has a current P/E ratio of 33.25, which is significantly lower than the ChiNext Index at 41.04 and the Nasdaq 100 at 36.23, indicating a favorable investment valuation [6][16]. - The ETF focuses on a composition of 70% hardware and 30% software, covering 42 hard tech companies, with significant weights in SMIC (15.19%) and Xiaomi (14.21%) [8][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acquisition of a 49% stake in Zhongxin North by SMIC, emphasizing the strategic move to enhance its position in the semiconductor industry and the significance of this transaction for the domestic semiconductor sector [2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - SMIC plans to acquire 49% of Zhongxin North for approximately 40.601 billion yuan, which will result in SMIC owning 100% of Zhongxin North [2]. - Zhongxin North, established in July 2013 with a registered capital of 4.8 billion USD, focuses on 12-inch wafer manufacturing with processes ranging from 65nm to 28nm [2]. - The company has initiated a 12-inch integrated circuit production line project, covering an area of about 286,000 square meters, with a planned monthly capacity of 70,000 12-inch wafers [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Financials - The equity book value of Zhongxin North is reported at 41.8 billion yuan, with an assessed value of 82.8 billion yuan, indicating a valuation increase of 41 billion yuan and a premium rate of 98.19% [2]. - SMIC also announced a new joint venture agreement with the National Integrated Circuit Fund and other investors, increasing the registered capital of Zhongxin South from 6.5 billion USD to approximately 10.0773 billion USD [2].

12月30日港股市场，北水成交净卖出38.45亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出13.27亿港元，港股通(深)成交净卖出25.18亿港 元。 港股通(深)活跃成交股 北水再度加仓芯片股。中芯国际(00981)、华虹半导体(01347)分别获净买入7.59亿、1.77亿港元。消息面上，12月29日晚，中 芯国际公告称，公司拟向国家集成电路基金等5名中芯北方股东发行股份购买其所持有的标的公司49%股权，交易价格406亿 元。本次交易完成后，中芯国际将持有中芯北方100%的股权。国泰君安认为，随着全球半导体周期触底回升，叠加国内政 策与资金双重支持，以中芯国际为代表的制造龙头将迎来业绩与估值双修复窗口期。 中海油(00883)获净买入4.6亿港元。消息面上，华泰证券认为，美欧对俄制裁带来的风险溢价已基本消退，北半球需求淡季 叠加OPEC+前期目标增量逐步释放，供需宽松局势下26Q1油价或仍有小幅下行空间，26Q2-Q3油价有望在需求进入旺季的带 动下见底并上探，预计25/26年布伦特均价为68/62 美元/桶。 工商银行(01398)获净买入3.56亿港元。消息面上，国信证券表示，展望2026年，驱动银行春节前行情 ...