里昂发表研报指，中芯国际2025年第四季收入按季升4.5%至24.9亿美元，超越0%至2%的增长指引；毛 利率为19.2%，约处于18%至20%指引区间的中值；平均售价按季上升1%至每片晶圆914美元。公司指 引2026年首季收入按季持平，符合市场预期；而毛利率指引为18%至20%，略低于市场预期的20.9%。 公司预期2026年全年收入增长将高于行业平均水平，资本开支指引则大致与2025年的81亿美元持平。里 昂现予中芯国际H股目标价93.3港元，A股目标价152元，均予"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is experiencing price increases in certain product lines due to changes in market supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of reduced capacity from competitors like TSMC [1] Group 1: Price Changes and Market Dynamics - SMIC's CEO Zhao Haijun addressed concerns regarding capacity price increases, indicating that prices are influenced by market supply and demand [1] - Reports suggest that SMIC may raise prices by 10% for certain capacities by the end of 2025 due to reduced production capacity from TSMC [1] - The company is witnessing price increases in memory-related products and BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) technology due to supply shortages [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors are shifting focus from mature process capacities to advanced packaging, leading to a decrease in the supply of mature process capacities [1] - The demand from AI edge applications is consuming more capacity, contributing to the price stability or slight increases in traditionally lower-priced products like CMOS CIS and LCD Drivers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (00981) with a target price of HKD 134 for H-shares, implying a projected P/E ratio of 71.6 times for 2028, and a target price of RMB 241.6 for A-shares, indicating a premium of 196% over H-share valuation, driven by domestic foundry customer demand growth and AI opportunities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 of the previous year, SMIC's revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.5 billion, exceeding both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations by 3%, and surpassing management's guidance of 0% to 2% growth [1] - The gross margin for the period was 19%, aligning with management's guidance of 18% to 20%, and generally matching Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 1% increase in wafer shipments and average selling prices quarter-on-quarter, while the gross margin decreased from 22% in the previous quarter due to increased depreciation and amortization expenses [1] Guidance and Outlook - Management's guidance for Q1 indicates flat revenue quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with Goldman Sachs' expectation of 2% growth and market expectations of flat revenue [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 remains at 18% to 20%, slightly below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 21.7% and market expectations of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management anticipates revenue growth to exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF (159995), which opened down by 0.88% at 1.910 yuan on February 11 [1] - Major holdings in the Chip ETF include companies such as SMIC, which fell by 1.89%, Haiguang Information down by 1.54%, and Cambrian down by 1.09% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index return rate, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 92.76% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a 1.42% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF Huatai Fu (516920), which opened down by 0.96% at 1.132 yuan on February 11 [1] - The major holdings of the Chip ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including Cambricon down 1.09%, SMIC down 1.89%, and GigaDevice down 1.69% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Chip ETF is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, with a total return of 14.40% since its establishment on July 27, 2021, and a one-month return of 0.56% [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.43%, gaining 116 points to close at 27,299 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.10% [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a rise of over 4%, with the new generation SU7 expected to launch in April [1] - The first-day listing of Xian Dao Intelligent (00470) increased by 0.44%, while fishing company Lexin Outdoor (02720) surged by 33% on its second day of trading [1] - The Kintor Group (00148) and Kintor Laminates (01888) experienced gains of 5% and 14% respectively, driven by expected high growth in copper-clad laminate performance by 2025 [1] - The precious metals sector saw gains, with Wan Guo Gold Group (03939) rising over 9% to reach a new high, benefiting from increased gold prices [1] - Tungsten prices continued to rise, with tungsten oxide increasing by 20,000 yuan per ton and ammonium paratungstate rising by 10,000 yuan per ton, leading to a surge of over 12% for Jiaxin International Resources (03858) [1] - China Duty Free Group (01880) rose over 5% following a strong start to the Spring Festival travel season for duty-free shopping in Hainan [1] Group 2 - Gilead Sciences-B (01672) increased by over 6%, with plans to submit an IND for ASC36 oral tablets for obesity treatment to the FDA in the second quarter [2] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rose over 7% as rare earth prices continue to climb, with institutions predicting a dual increase in valuation and performance for the sector [3] - Mongol Mining (00975) surged over 11% as its BKH gold mine ramped up production and dividend restrictions were gradually lifted [4] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) fell by 3.63% post-earnings, with Goldman Sachs indicating that its first-quarter gross margin guidance was below expectations [5] - Health 160 (02656) plummeted by 33%, retracting most of its gains for the year, with its total market value briefly falling below 20 billion HKD [6]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.43% to 27,299.62 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,510.82 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.41% to 9,280.92 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly saw gains, with Alibaba up by 0.81%, JD.com up by 0.64%, Xiaomi up by 4.72%, and NetEase up by 1.04%, while Tencent fell by 0.54% [1] Company Earnings - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a significant increase in performance, with projected sales revenue of $9.327 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a net profit of $685 million, up by 39.1% [2] - SMIC's average capacity utilization rate reached 93.5% for the year, with Q4 utilization hitting 95.7% [2] - PCCW reported a 7% increase in revenue to HKD 40.252 billion, with a 16% reduction in losses [2] Corporate Developments - Minth Group plans to establish a joint venture with Aisin and Toyota to produce aluminum vehicle body frames, strengthening its supply chain in North America [3] - Singlomics completed a placement raising HKD 835 million, with 90% allocated for global Phase III clinical trials of its obesity drug ASC30 [5] - Huatai Securities completed a zero-coupon convertible bond issuance of HKD 10 billion [6] Market Insights - CICC noted that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is due to three pressures: hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, doubts about AI capital expenditure returns, and lower-than-expected PMI [7] - The market is expected to have limited upward space in the medium term, with a target range for the Hang Seng Index between 28,000 and 29,000 points [7] - Analysts suggest focusing on essential retail and technology hardware sectors for potential growth [7]

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to rise, with significant increases in companies such as WanGuo Gold Group (up 9.39%), Zijin Mining (up 3.5%), and Lingbao Gold (up 7.24%), driven by fluctuating gold prices and rising interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - Zijin Mining has approved a three-year production plan for major mineral products from 2026 to 2028, outlining clear production targets [1] - China Duty Free Group reported a 14.71% year-on-year increase in duty-free shopping amounts, totaling 11.585 billion yuan since the policy adjustment [1] Group 2 - Mongol Mining shares rose over 15% during trading, reflecting its transition from a single coking coal producer to a multi-mineral producer, including gold and copper [2] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a 12.8% year-on-year increase in Q4 2025 revenue, reaching $2.489 billion, with a 60.7% increase in attributable profit [2] - Health 160 experienced a significant drop of nearly 40%, with its market value falling below 20 billion HKD, indicating a major reversal in its stock performance [2] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group shares increased nearly 5% following a live broadcast by its founder, emphasizing ongoing investments in technology and product development [3] - Zhizhu shares rose over 10% this week, with a cumulative increase exceeding 70%, driven by the launch of a new anonymous model by OpenRouter [3] - Jiantao Group stocks rose due to increased demand for high-end copper-clad laminates driven by AI computing power [3] Group 4 - Jaguar Uranium's stock opened over 35% higher on its debut in the US market but later fell by 23.25%, indicating volatility in its initial trading [4] - NIO shares rose 1.43% as the CEO highlighted significant achievements and future plans for profitability by 2026 [4] - Sohu reported a 6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, with a notable reduction in losses compared to the previous year [4] Group 5 - Ferrari's Q4 2025 revenue reached €1.8 billion (approximately $2.14 billion), exceeding expectations, with a positive outlook for 2026 [5] - Philips reported a 1% year-on-year sales increase in Q4, with adjusted EBITA surpassing market expectations, particularly in its personal health segment [5]

赵海军预测，接下来存储器产能会增加，9个月后就能看到晶圆前端生产产能增加，这些产能会投放到消费类产品。 中芯国际（688981.SH）2月10日晚披露2025年第四季度业绩快报后，今日举办了业绩交流会，公司高管回应了存储缺货、产业链回流、部分产能涨价等问 题。 赵海军判断，接下来存储产能不足预计影响电脑及周边等，在手机库存偏高的情况下，预计上半年需求有一定程度的下降，公司于是将更多产能腾挪给供不 应求的领域，例如数据中心、电源、工业、汽车。在存储器相关的部分，公司感受到的需求非常急，目前已尽可能将产能转为MCU专用存储器或与存储相 关逻辑电路的部分。同时，与数据传输、端侧AI有关的电路需求也在增长。 至于中低端手机需求何时触底反弹，赵海军也作出了判断。"我经历过5轮存储周期，看到终端需求（一开始）可能被放大，就像缺少一张机票会同时去问国 航、东航、南航，售票处一下增加很多需求，但实际需求只有一张。现在大家有些慌张、焦虑，是因为需求被放大，推动价格上涨，中间商囤货议价。但 AI真正带来很多需求的部分是HBM（高带宽内存）、封装测试等，并非前端的晶圆都转去做HBM。"他表示。 赵海军预测，接下来存储器产能会增加， ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (00981) with a target price of HKD 134 for H-shares, implying a projected P/E ratio of 71.6x for 2028, and a target price of RMB 241.6 for A-shares, indicating a premium of 196% over H-share valuation, driven by domestic foundry customer demand growth and AI opportunities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 of the previous year, SMIC's revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.5 billion, exceeding both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations by 3%, and surpassing management's guidance of 0% to 2% growth [1] - The gross margin for the period was 19%, aligning with management's guidance of 18% to 20%, and generally matching Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase in wafer shipments and average selling prices, while the gross margin decreased from 22% in the previous quarter due to increased depreciation and amortization expenses [1] Management Guidance - For Q1 of this year, management expects revenue to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2% growth and market expectations [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 is maintained at 18% to 20%, slightly below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 21.7% and market expectations of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management anticipates revenue growth to exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]