【国联民生电子】中芯国际25Q4：悲观预期下的诸多亮点 【国联民生电子】中芯国际25Q4：悲观预期下的诸多亮点 相较于此前市场的悲观预期，公司在收入等方面仍取得了超预期增长，同时后续仍迎来成熟制程涨价+先进制 程扩产多重催化，公司作为国产算力中军，较此前高点已回撤22%，当前港股PB仅3.46x，当下建议积极布局 领导好，今日中芯公告25Q4业绩，此前市场对于Q4预期较为悲观，我们在preview中前瞻提示有望优于指引，整体 来看在收入、稼动率等方面存在诸多亮点，梳理核心要点如下： 25Q4 ➠营收：24.89亿美元，yoy+12.8%，qoq+4.5%大超此前指引0-2% ➠归母净利润：1.73亿美元，yoy+60.7%，qoq-9.9% ➠毛利率：19.2%，环比-2.8pct，同比-3.4pct 虽有环比下滑、但符合指引 ➠产能利用率：95.7%，环比减少0.1pct，同比+10.2pct ➠资本开支：24.1亿美元 领导好，今日中芯公告25Q4业绩，此前市场对于Q4预期较为悲观，我们在preview中前瞻提示有望优于指引，整体 来看在收入、稼动率等方面存在诸多亮点，梳理核心要点如下： 26Q1 25Q ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses **中泰电子 (Zhongtai Electronics)** and **中芯国际 (SMIC)**, focusing on the semiconductor industry. Core Points and Arguments - **Q4 2025 Revenue and Profit Performance** - Q4 2025 revenue reached **$2.489 billion**, a year-on-year increase of **12.8%** and a quarter-on-quarter increase of **4.5%**, exceeding previous guidance of flat to **2%** growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was **$173 million**, up **60.7%** year-on-year but down **9.9%** quarter-on-quarter [1] - Gross margin stood at **19.2%**, a decrease of **3.4 percentage points** year-on-year and **2.8 percentage points** quarter-on-quarter, above the guidance range of **18% to 20%** [1] - **Minority Shareholders' Equity** - Minority shareholders' equity was **$31 million**, down **81.3%** year-on-year and **75.3%** quarter-on-quarter, accounting for **15%** of net profit, a decline of **45.3 percentage points** year-on-year and **24.2 percentage points** quarter-on-quarter, potentially linked to capacity expansion and increased depreciation [1] - **Operational Metrics** - Utilization rate for Q4 was **95.7%**, an increase of **10.2 percentage points** year-on-year and a slight decrease of **0.1 percentage points** quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a relatively high level despite being a traditional off-season [2] - **Capital Expenditure and Guidance** - Capital expenditure for 2025 was **$8.1 billion**, exceeding expectations (previously expected to match 2024's **$7.3 billion**) [2] - Guidance for Q1 2026 indicates flat revenue quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin guidance of **18% to 20%**, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of **3.5 percentage points** and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of **0.2 percentage points** [2] - The company expects revenue growth in 2026 to exceed the average of comparable peers [2] - **Market Dynamics** - In Q4, smartphones accounted for **21.5%** of the company's wafer revenue, remaining stable compared to Q3 [2] - Concerns about storage price increases affecting downstream businesses were alleviated by the high utilization rate and optimistic revenue guidance for Q1 [2] - The company anticipates that the restructuring effects from the localization shift in the semiconductor supply chain will persist throughout the year, presenting both opportunities and challenges [2] - **Industry Outlook** - The semiconductor industry's fundamentals remain robust, with strong growth driven by AI and increased demand in the industrial automotive sector [2] - The rise of domestic wafer foundries is expected to drive demand back to local markets [2] Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Risk Factors** - Risks include the industry not meeting expected levels of prosperity and potential delays in technological advancements [3]

Group 1 - ASMPT's stock price increased by over 8% in early trading, currently at 108.1 HKD with a trading volume of 151 million HKD [1] - ASMPT announced a new order from a major client for two ultra-fine pitch thermal compression bonding (TCB) machines equipped with proprietary plasma active oxide removal (AOR) technology for chip-to-wafer (C2W) applications, reinforcing its technological leadership in the advanced packaging market [1] Group 2 - SMIC's executives indicated that the company's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be 8.1 billion USD, exceeding earlier expectations due to strong customer demand, changes in the external environment, and longer equipment delivery times [1] - SMIC provided guidance for 2026, suggesting that sales revenue growth will exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditure expected to remain roughly flat compared to 2025, assuming no significant changes in the external environment [1]

Summary of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) 4Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Quarter**: 4Q25 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: Achieved revenue of $2.489 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.5%, aligning with previous guidance [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Maintained at 95.7%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - **Wafer Shipment**: Increased by 0.6% to 2.515 million wafers (approximately 8-inch) [2] - **Gross Margin**: Reported at 19.2%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, primarily due to increased depreciation [2] - **General and Administrative Expenses**: Increased significantly by 244% to $146 million, mainly due to startup costs [2] - **Minority Interest Loss**: Decreased by 75.3% to $31 million [2] Guidance and Outlook - **Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to remain flat quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20% [2] - **2026 Full-Year Outlook**: Anticipates revenue growth exceeding the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain roughly flat compared to 2025 [3] Market Segment Insights - **Consumer Electronics**: Revenue share increased by 3.9 percentage points to 47.3%, becoming the primary revenue driver [3] - **Industrial and Automotive**: Slight increase in revenue share by 0.3 percentage points to 12.2% [3] - **Smartphones**: Revenue share remained stable at 21.5% [3] - **Computers and Tablets**: Revenue share decreased to 11.8% [3] - **Internet and Wearables**: Revenue share decreased to 7.2% [3] Additional Insights - The increase in general and administrative expenses may indicate strategic investments or operational challenges that could impact future profitability [2] - The stability in smartphone revenue share suggests a mature market, while the growth in consumer electronics indicates a shift in demand dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Huaxia Science and Technology Value ETF (589550), which opened down by 0.45% at 1.322 yuan on February 11 [1] - The major holdings of the ETF include companies such as SMIC, which opened down by 1.89%, and Cambrian, which fell by 1.09% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the Shanghai Stock Exchange Intelligent Selection Science and Technology Board Value 50 Strategy Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Since its establishment on July 16, 2025, the ETF has achieved a return of 32.87%, with a monthly return of 2.15% [1] - Other notable stock performances within the ETF include Haiguang Information down by 1.54%, Times Electric up by 0.32%, and Lanqi Technology down by 1.46% [1] - The fund manager is Yang Siqi, indicating a specific leadership in the management of the ETF [1]

中芯国际低开近2%，公司公告，2025年第四季度净利润12.23亿元，同比增长23.2%。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数小幅低开 沪指低开0.1%，深证成指低开0.17%，创业板指低开0.24%，科创综指低开0.33%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | N | 4124.43 | -3.95 | -0.10% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | M | 14186.65 | -23.97 | -0.17% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | Mm | 3312.64 | -7.89 | -0.24% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | Man | 1796.57 | -5.89 | -0.33% | 盘面上，CPO、太空光伏、AI算力、深海科技、消费电子、半导体概念股调整；AI应用题材局部活 跃。 个股方面，*ST立方复牌低开2.88%，2月10日晚间，深交所发布关于*ST立方股票交易的风险提示：近 期，*ST立方股价大幅波动，已多次触发股价异动标准 ...

Group 1 - The Digital Economy ETF ICBC (561220) opened at a decline of 0.26%, priced at 1.535 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Digital Economy ETF include companies like SMIC, which fell by 1.89%, and Haiguang Information, which dropped by 1.54% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the China Securities Index for State-Owned Enterprises in the Digital Economy, managed by ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management [1] Group 2 - Since its inception on May 21, 2025, the fund has achieved a return of 54.05%, while its return over the past month has been -0.65% [1] - The fund manager is Shi Baojiao, indicating a specific leadership in managing the ETF [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF Dongcai (159599), which opened with a slight decline of 0.35% at 2.269 yuan [1] - The major holdings of the Chip ETF Dongcai include companies such as Cambrian, SMIC, and Haiguang Information, all of which experienced declines in their stock prices, with SMIC down by 1.89% and Cambrian down by 1.09% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Chip ETF Dongcai is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, managed by Dongcai Fund Management Co., with a return of 127.89% since its establishment on April 19, 2024, and a monthly return of 0.62% [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF Southern (159325) opened down 0.30% at 1.641 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the semiconductor ETF showed mixed performance, with notable declines in stocks such as Cambrian (-1.09%), SMIC (-1.89%), and GigaDevice (-1.69%), while Tuojing Technology saw a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The performance benchmark for the semiconductor ETF is the CSI Semiconductor Industry Select Index return, managed by Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Since its establishment on October 31, 2024, the fund has achieved a return of 64.93%, but has experienced a decline of 0.24% over the past month [1]

中芯国际高管今日在业绩说明会上表示，公司持续高投入，推动了公司收入规模的快速成长，但也给毛 利率带来了很高的折旧压力。预计2026年公司总折旧同比增加3成左右。公司会在内部挖掘通过努力保 持高利用率和降本增效来对抗折旧的压力。 ...