奥维云网数据显示，24Q4 线上/线下 KA 电视机行业零售量分别同比 +4.74%/+3.09%，公司份额重获增长，TCL 及雷鸟品牌市占率同比提升 3.42/4.07 个百分点。我们认为 2025 年换新政策将继续催化中高端需求， 25 年 1-2 月公司零售量份额继续强化（线上 TCL 同比+ 0.85pct、雷鸟 +3.62pct；线下 TCL+3.54pct），可以继续期待公司份额提升。同时产品结 构升级明显、盈利优化可期，公司 1-2 月 TCL 线上均价同比+12.9%。 港股通 24 年净利超预期，看好电视结构升级 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 23 日│中国香港 | 视听器材 | 证券研究报告 公司公布 2024 年业绩：收入 993.22 亿港元，同比+25.7%；归母净利润 17.59 亿港元，同比+136.6%；经调整归母净利 16.06 亿港元，+100.1%。公司着 力经营效率提升，费用率优化明显，24 年业绩大幅好于我们预期（预期归 母净利 12.3 亿元）。受益于以旧换新政策红利及显 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 99.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%[5] - Gross profit reached HKD 15.55 billion, reflecting a 13.8% increase compared to the previous year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 136.6% to HKD 1.76 billion, while adjusted net profit rose by 100.1% to HKD 1.61 billion[5] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.318 per share, representing a 98.8% increase from the previous year's dividend[5] - The company's revenue increased by 25.7% from HKD 78.99 billion in 2023 to HKD 99.32 billion in 2024[54] - Gross profit rose by 13.8% from HKD 13.67 billion in 2023 to HKD 15.55 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 15.7%[59] - The company's net profit for the year was HKD 1,848,511, which is a significant increase of 123.4% compared to HKD 826,809 in 2023[99] - The group's profit before tax for 2024 was HKD 1,759,366,000, a significant increase from HKD 743,633,000 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 136.5%[145] Market Performance - The global TV industry shipment volume is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2024, with the company’s TV shipments increasing by 14.8% to 29 million units, raising its market share to 13.9%[7][15] - TCL TV global shipment volume reached 29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, achieving a historical high[24] - TCL TV's global market share in shipment volume increased from 5.6% in 2015 to 13.9% in 2024, with sales revenue market share reaching 12.4%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year[24] - In the Chinese market, TCL TV shipment volume grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 12.4%, leading to an 18.9% rise in revenue to HKD 19.046 billion[28] - In North America, TCL TV's shipment volume increased by 6.4% year-on-year, outperforming the industry growth rate of 4.0%, with a significant growth of 67.6% in shipments of TVs 75 inches and above[33] - In emerging markets, TCL TV's shipment volume grew by 12.7% year-on-year, with specific increases of 17.6% in Latin America and 39.6% in the Middle East and Africa[33] Product Development and Innovation - The company is focusing on high-end and smart product strategies, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness and diversify revenue streams[10] - Innovative business revenue increased by 44.9% year-on-year to HKD 27.009 billion, with gross profit rising by 30.5% to HKD 3.347 billion[16] - Solar business revenue and gross profit both surged by 104.4% year-on-year to HKD 12.874 billion and HKD 1.230 billion, respectively[16] - R&D expenses reached HKD 2.335 billion, focusing on advanced display technologies and AI innovations[19] - The launch of the X11K QD-Mini LED TV showcased industry-leading technology with peak brightness of 6,500 nits and 14,000 local dimming zones[21] - The company aims to enhance its product matrix in the distributed photovoltaic market and explore innovative applications in AR/XR and smart home robots[50] Operational Efficiency - The company’s operational efficiency improved, with selling and distribution expenses decreasing by 1.0 percentage points to 7.6% of revenue[12] - The company maintained a net capital debt ratio of 0.0%, indicating a strong financial position[13] - Financing costs decreased by 11.1% from HKD 885 million in 2023 to HKD 787 million in 2024, mainly due to reduced factoring interest expenses[71] - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 10.1% from HKD 6.818 billion in 2023 to HKD 7.504 billion in 2024, primarily due to strategic investments in brand marketing and product promotion[65] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen its "mid-to-high-end + globalization" strategy, focusing on high-quality growth and expanding its market share[48] - The company has capital commitments of HKD 539,899,000 as of December 31, 2024, down from HKD 599,510,000 in the previous year[89] - The company is currently involved in a tax assessment dispute in Brazil, which is expected to last between 3 to 8 years, with no provisions made as legal counsel believes the company can effectively defend against the claims[91] - The company has not engaged in any high-risk derivative trading or leveraged foreign exchange contracts, focusing instead on natural hedging through functional currency transactions[93] Corporate Governance - The company has established and will continue to optimize its risk management and internal control systems, with regular reports to the board and audit committee on governance status and improvements[170] - The company has complied with the corporate governance code for the year ending December 31, 2024[171] - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, has reviewed the annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, including the accounting principles adopted[173] - The company is focused on enhancing collaboration between the board and management to strengthen corporate governance responsibilities[170] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 25% market share by 2025[186] - TCL plans to allocate RMB 5 billion for R&D in quantum dot display technology over the next three years[186] - The company anticipates a 30% increase in sales from its new energy-efficient product line by the end of 2024[186]

Group 1 - The company rating is "Outperform" (Initiate) [3][6] - The report date is March 19, 2025 [3] - The closing price on March 18, 2025, was HKD 7.92, with a total market value of HKD 199.66 billion [4][8] Group 2 - TCL Electronics is a leader in the black-and-white electronics sector, experiencing rapid performance growth driven by technology upgrades and demand [9][11] - The display business is the core of TCL's operations, with a global market share of 14.3% in smart screen shipments, ranking second worldwide [11][20] - In 2024, TCL's global TV shipments are expected to increase by 14.8% year-on-year, reaching 29 million units [11][20] Group 3 - The global TV industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7%, with the market size expected to reach USD 835.8 billion by 2034 [11][14] - Mini LED TV shipments are anticipated to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 194.5% in 2024 [11][14] - TCL's Mini LED TVs are expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and economies of scale, enhancing their market position [11][14] Group 4 - The company has a compound revenue growth rate of 10.9% from 2015 to 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company growing at a CAGR of approximately 26.2% [11][20] - For the fiscal year 2023, TCL's revenue was HKD 78.986 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7% [7][13] - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is HKD 94.966 billion, HKD 109.325 billion, and HKD 124.318 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.2%, 15.1%, and 13.7% respectively [6][13] Group 5 - The internet business segment is showing high growth potential, with a revenue increase of 20.2% in 2023, reaching HKD 2.76 billion [67] - The innovative business segment, including full-category marketing and distributed photovoltaics, has seen revenue growth, contributing to overall business expansion [70][71] - The solar business has reported significant revenue growth, achieving HKD 63 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 1820.3% [71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a target price based on the last closing price of HKD 6.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - TCL Electronics is expected to exceed performance expectations for 2024, with an adjusted net profit forecast of approximately HKD 1.3 billion to HKD 1.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% to 112% [4]. - The company anticipates a record high in global TV shipments, reaching 29 million units in 2024, a 14.8% increase from the previous year [4]. - The integration of DeepSeek is expected to enhance multiple business lines, including smart home and mobile communications, leading to improved operational efficiency and long-term growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, TCL Electronics expects revenue of HKD 102.7 billion, a growth rate of 30% compared to 2023 [9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be HKD 1.57 billion, with a net profit growth rate of 111% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 0.62, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.57 [9]. Business Segments - The core TV business is expected to drive growth, with a significant increase in high-margin products, including a 69.5% increase in quantum dot TVs and a 194.5% increase in Mini LED TVs [4]. - The innovative business segments, including solar energy and full-category marketing, are also projected to contribute positively to the company's performance [4]. Market Outlook - The global TV market is anticipated to see strong demand for large-screen and high-end products, with a shift in panel production capacity towards Chinese brands, potentially increasing market concentration [6]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in sectors such as solar energy, AR/XR, and AI, which are expected to benefit TCL Electronics [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [3][2]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of HKD 1.3 to 1.7 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, likely exceeding the equity incentive target of 65% growth [1]. - The company leads global TV shipments with a projected total of 29 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with domestic shipments up 5.8% and overseas shipments up 17.6% [1]. - The Mini LED segment is expected to see nearly a twofold increase in global shipments in 2024, benefiting from subsidy policies and advancements in high-end product development [1]. - TCL's diverse business segments, including TV, photovoltaic, and full-category marketing, are contributing to robust performance, with a focus on digital transformation and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is between HKD 1.3 billion and HKD 1.7 billion, with significant growth anticipated in the following years: HKD 1.52 billion in 2025 and HKD 1.89 billion in 2026 [2]. - The company’s revenue from TV business has reached a historical high, supported by rapid growth in innovative business segments [1]. Market Position - TCL Electronics is recognized as a leading player in the global television industry, with a steady expansion of market share driven by high-end product offerings and global operational capabilities [2]. Business Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its operational capabilities through digital transformation and efficiency measures, including strict cost control and improved material turnover [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 1.3 to 1.7 billion HKD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, likely exceeding the stock incentive target of 65% growth [1]. - The company leads global TV shipments with a projected total of 29 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with domestic shipments up 5.8% and overseas shipments up 17.6% [1]. - The Mini LED segment is expected to see nearly a twofold increase in global shipments in 2024, driven by subsidy policies and advancements in high-end and large-size product structures [1]. - TCL's diverse business segments, including TV, photovoltaic, and full-category marketing, are contributing to robust performance, with a focus on digital transformation and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is between 1.3 billion and 1.7 billion HKD, with significant growth anticipated [1][2]. - Profit expectations for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 1.52 billion, 1.89 billion, and 2.26 billion HKD respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment based on the latest earnings forecast [2]. Market Position - TCL Electronics is recognized as a leading player in the global television industry, with a steady expansion of market share through high-end product offerings and global operations [2][3]. - The company is also solidifying its growth in non-core areas such as photovoltaic and internet businesses, contributing to overall performance [2]. Operational Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its operational capabilities through digital transformation and efficiency measures, including strict cost control and improved turnover rates [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that TCL Electronics is expected to exceed profit expectations in H2 2024, with a projected adjusted net profit of HKD 6.5 to 10.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% to 93% [7] - The company is anticipated to achieve a full-year adjusted net profit of HKD 13 to 17 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112% [7] - The report highlights that TCL's television sales, both domestic and international, are expected to grow significantly, with a total volume increase of 15% for the year, outperforming the global television volume growth of 1.8% [6][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Domestic sales are projected to increase by 5% in Q3 and 7% in Q4, with MiniLED shipments doubling year-on-year and penetration rates reaching 15.3% and 24.4% respectively [5] - International sales are expected to grow by 24% in Q3 and 23% in Q4, with large-screen shipments increasing by 80% year-on-year in H2 [5] - By region, Europe is expected to see a 34% increase in shipments, followed by emerging markets at 13% and North America at 6% [5] Profitability Analysis - The report forecasts a significant improvement in profitability, with H2 adjusted net profit expected to increase by 56% year-on-year [8] - Factors contributing to this improvement include a favorable product mix due to MiniLED and large-screen trends, reduced cost pressures, and effective cost management [8] - The projected revenue for 2024 to 2026 is estimated at HKD 98.5 billion, HKD 114.4 billion, and HKD 130.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 14.6 billion, HKD 18.5 billion, and HKD 22.5 billion [9][11] Financial Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected revenue growth of 25% in 2024 and a net profit growth of 96% in the same year [11] - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.45% in 2023 to 8.22% in 2024 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 11.38 in 2024, indicating a low valuation with a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 26.0% in 2024 and a projected net profit increase of 101.9% [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion to RMB 1.7 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, with a midpoint estimate of RMB 1.5 billion [1]. - The company's global TV shipments are projected to reach 29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, driven by domestic subsidies and breakthroughs in overseas channels [1]. - The average screen size of the company's shipments has increased, with a notable rise in the proportion of large-screen and high-end products, contributing to improved profitability [2]. Revenue Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 99.51 billion, RMB 117.66 billion, and RMB 131.93 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 26.0%, 18.2%, and 12.1% [3][6]. - The domestic market continues to benefit from the "TCL + Thunderbird" dual-brand strategy, with a 5.8% increase in domestic shipments in 2024 [1]. Profitability Summary - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in the average size of shipped products, leading to enhanced profitability [2][3]. - The Mini LED TV segment has shown remarkable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 194.5% in global shipments [2]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the company has successfully penetrated overseas markets, with significant growth in Europe (33.8%) and emerging markets such as Latin America (17.6%) and the Middle East and Africa (39.6%) [1][2]. - The company's stock is currently valued at a PE ratio of 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [3].

TCL Electronics Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - TCL Electronics is a leading player in the global display industry, with significant scale and presence in the market [3] - The black goods industry has faced rapid technological iterations and intense competition, leading to challenges in profitability stability [6] Company Performance - In 2024, TCL Electronics' automotive electronic panel shipments are expected to reach 29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [3] - The average size of televisions sold by TCL Electronics increased by 1.3 inches to 52.4 inches, with global shipments of 65 inches and above TVs rising to 26% and 75 inches and above to 13.2% [3] - Domestic market shipments saw an average size of 63.3 inches, with 37.7% of shipments being 75 inches and above, driven by national subsidy policies [5] Market Trends - The overall television industry is expected to shrink in 2024, but leading companies like TCL Electronics are projected to achieve growth through increased market share [10] - High-quality demand is rising, leading to price segmentation in the market, with significant increases in the penetration of large screens and energy-efficient products due to government support [7] Strategic Initiatives - TCL Electronics is focusing on a smart display strategy and aims to enhance its market share in the mid-to-high-end segments through competitive pricing and global marketing strategies [8] - The company is strategically reducing its mobile and tablet business to concentrate on more profitable markets in Europe and the U.S. [12] - Cost management measures include reducing sales and administrative expenses while optimizing the overall expense structure to improve profitability [13] Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a 65% growth target for 2024, with internet business growth expected to exceed 20% [14] - Profit levels are projected to reach around HKD 2 billion by 2025, with current valuations considered low, indicating high investment value [14] Emerging Opportunities - TCL Electronics is expanding into emerging fields such as photovoltaics and full-screen displays, which are expected to generate additional orders [15] - The company holds approximately 13-14% of the global automotive battery market share, indicating potential for further growth compared to competitors [15] Risk Factors - Investors should be aware of potential stock price volatility due to LeEco's stock holdings and ongoing sell-offs, although overall business trends remain positive [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, marking the first coverage of the company [12][10][192]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve a breakthrough in high-end market share through its strategic focus on mid-to-high-end products, leveraging its advantages in product quality, channel distribution, and brand strength [2][10]. - The company's profitability is anticipated to improve as panel price fluctuations stabilize, aided by internal resources from Huaxing Optoelectronics [2][6]. - The diversification of TCL's business boundaries is ongoing, with growth driven by market share expansion, operational efficiency improvements, and industry diversification [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - TCL Electronics, originating from a tape manufacturing background, has evolved into a global leader in display technology, with a projected revenue of HKD 45.494 billion in H1 2024 and a global TV shipment market share of 13.3%, ranking among the top three worldwide [4][10]. Historical Challenges - The TV industry has faced significant profitability fluctuations due to intense competition and price wars initiated by internet brands, leading to a fragmented market and reduced margins for traditional manufacturers [5][28]. Recovery and Growth Prospects - The global TV market is stabilizing, with increasing demand for high-end and large-screen TVs. TCL's strategic focus on Mini LED technology is expected to capture a larger share of the mid-to-high-end market [6][55]. - The shift of panel production capacity to mainland China is likely to shorten price fluctuation cycles, enhancing TCL's ability to manage costs effectively [6][137]. Operational Efficiency - TCL has optimized its mobile and tablet business, focusing on profitable markets in Europe and America, which is expected to improve gross margins in 2024 [7][138]. - The company has also restructured its internet business, which is anticipated to have significant growth potential despite recent regulatory challenges [7][144]. Industry Diversification - TCL's foray into the solar energy sector is supported by favorable policies and a growing market, with significant revenue growth expected from this segment [8][180]. - The company is leveraging its existing distribution channels to enhance its solar business, which has shown rapid growth since its inception [8][181]. Value Reassessment - The 2023 stock incentive plan reflects TCL's confidence in future growth, with projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for net profit of 13%-23% from 2024 to 2026 [9][187]. - Compared to industry averages, TCL's valuation appears attractive, suggesting significant investment potential as market share and profitability are expected to improve [9][188]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that TCL's growth will be driven by market share expansion, operational efficiency, and industry diversification, with projected net profits of HKD 1.328 billion, HKD 1.639 billion, and HKD 2.014 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [10][192].