Market Overview - The US dollar index has shown strong performance, leading to a pullback in Bitcoin and overseas stock markets. The A-share market experienced a rise and fall, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index declining by 2.75% this week, closing at 1088.77 points [1] Top Gainers - TCL Electronics (HK 01070) saw a weekly increase of 5.95% - Transsion Holdings (SH 688036) increased by 3.81% - Agricultural Bank of China (SH 601288) rose by 2.43%, with a market value increase of 52.5 billion yuan this week [4][1] Top Losers - Li Auto (HK 02015) experienced a significant drop of 14.03% - China Power Construction (SH 601669) fell by 9.70% - Geely Automobile (HK 00175) decreased by 9.25% [5] JD.com Developments - JD's "Seven Fresh Kitchen" platform reported over 1,000 daily orders in its first week, with a repurchase rate exceeding the industry average by 220%. The recruitment for "Dish Partners" surpassed 66,000 applicants, indicating strong market trust in JD's supply chain and traffic [6][9] Li Auto Launch - Li Auto launched its first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, with a price range of 321,800 to 369,800 yuan, aligning its pricing strategy with the existing range of hybrid models [8] Meituan's Strategy - Meituan's "Raccoon Canteen" has seen a 40-fold increase in search volume since its launch, with a 60% rise in order volume. The platform emphasizes not competing with merchants, focusing instead on infrastructure support [9] Geely's Sales Target - Geely aims for an annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, with plans to launch five hybrid models in the second half of the year, targeting the mid-to-high-end hybrid market [10] Alibaba and Standard Chartered Partnership - Alibaba and Standard Chartered have signed a strategic cooperation memorandum to enhance the integration of financial services and AI technology, supporting Alibaba's global strategy [11]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in MiniLED penetration is driven by cost reduction and government subsidies, leading to improved picture quality and profitability for manufacturers [1][2][3] Group 1: MiniLED Market Penetration - In 2024, China's MiniLED sales penetration is expected to reach 18%, with a significant increase during the 618 shopping festival, where the penetration rate reached 41%, up by 22.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The MiniLED technology is positioned to disrupt the competitive landscape of the television market, similar to past technological shifts that affected market shares [1][3] Group 2: Profitability and Pricing - The profit margin for MiniLED televisions is significantly higher than that of ordinary LCD TVs, with a price difference of nearly 2000 yuan for a 65-inch model, while the cost increase is less than 1000 yuan [2][3] - The narrowing price gap between MiniLED and non-MiniLED TVs is expected to drive higher penetration rates, as consumers are willing to pay for better display quality [3][4] Group 3: Future Projections - The estimated shipment volume for MiniLED TVs in China is around 20 million units, with an additional 34.3 million units projected for overseas markets [4] - The market share for MiniLED TVs in China is anticipated to reach 78% among the top three brands (Hisense, Xiaomi, TCL) by 2024, indicating a concentration of benefits among leading manufacturers [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is experiencing stable growth, particularly in the black and clean appliance sectors, with mid-term performance being relatively strong [1] - The home appliance index has seen a 3.07% increase as of July 25, 2025, but the market is concerned about the sustainability of growth due to policy uncertainties and declining export figures [3][6] - The report highlights the impact of government policies, such as the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has provided support for domestic demand but is expected to see diminishing returns in the latter half of the year [16][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Institutional Allocation - As of July 25, 2025, the home appliance index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 4.85% [6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the home appliance sector is 14.69, below the historical average of 17.63 [6] 2. Domestic Demand and Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver for domestic sales, but its effectiveness is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025 due to funding gaps [16][23] - Retail sales in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [22] 3. Export Challenges - Home appliance exports have faced challenges, with significant declines in April, May, and June 2025, attributed to U.S. tariff policies and a high base from the previous year [4][42] - The report notes that companies with production capabilities in Southeast Asia may have a competitive advantage, while others face pressure on profit margins due to late-stage capacity expansions [4] 4. Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning market is expected to see high demand in 2024, driven by government subsidies, but June 2025 sales were below expectations [48][61] - The average selling price of air conditioners has stabilized after a decline earlier in the year, with competition expected to remain intense [81] 5. Black Appliances and Globalization - The global market for televisions is stabilizing, with TCL Electronics projecting a significant increase in mid-term profits due to rising demand [3] - The report emphasizes the trend towards high-end and large-screen televisions, with Mini LED technology expected to see substantial growth [3] 6. Clean Appliances - The clean appliance sector is benefiting from government subsidies, with strong retail growth observed [3] - Companies like Ecovacs have reported better-than-expected mid-term performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics announces a strong earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, projecting adjusted net profit to reach between HKD 950 million and HKD 1.08 billion, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The expected high growth in earnings is attributed to improved product structure and quality growth in core business, alongside rapid growth in innovative business [2] - TCL's global TV shipments reached 13.46 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, maintaining its position as the second-largest TV manufacturer globally [3] - Mini LED TV shipments surged by 176.1% to 1.37 million units, making TCL the global leader in Mini LED TV shipments [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In the Chinese market, TCL's brand upgrade and technological innovation have led to a 10.2% year-on-year increase in shipments of mid-to-high-end TCL brand TVs [4] - TCL's Mini LED TVs achieved a retail volume of over 270,000 units during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the industry [4] - TCL's global supply chain and channel advantages have been reinforced, with significant retail volume rankings in various international markets [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The global TV market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with Korean brands facing significant declines in profits, while TCL is capitalizing on this shift [6] - Samsung's video display division reported a 46% drop in Q2 operating profit, while LG Electronics is expected to incur substantial losses [6] - TCL's market share in the high-end TV segment has increased from 13% to 19%, while Samsung's share has decreased from 39% to 28% [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements - TCL's early investment in Mini LED technology has positioned it as a leader in the high-end TV market, with significant advancements in product offerings [9] - The company has developed innovative solutions to address Mini LED challenges, enhancing its market position and driving down prices [9] - TCL's vertical integration strategy has allowed it to convert technological advantages into competitive pricing, facilitating broader market penetration [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The strong growth of TCL Electronics and the decline of Korean giants indicate a significant shift in the global TV industry value chain [11] - As TCL continues to leverage its technological and supply chain strengths, it is poised to redefine industry standards and capture greater market share in the high-end segment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese television market in the first half of 2025 shows a clear trend of "stable volume and rising prices," driven by consumption upgrades and a shift towards larger and higher-end products [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the retail volume of color TVs increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while retail revenue grew by 7.5% [1]. - TCL Electronics is a market leader, with a projected adjusted net profit of HKD 9.5-10.8 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 45%-65% [1][3]. - TCL's global TV shipment reached 13.46 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, maintaining its position among the top two globally [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - TCL is a pioneer in Mini LED technology, having established a comprehensive technology chain and recently launched the "万象分区" technology, enhancing light control precision [3][4]. - The company has introduced the fourth generation of LCD TVs, achieving nearly 100% visible area and addressing industry challenges such as screen bezels [3]. - Mini LED TVs are expected to see global shipments double to 16 million units by 2025, significantly outpacing OLED TVs [4]. Group 3: Product Strategy - TCL's strategy of focusing on larger and mid-to-high-end products has led to a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in shipments of 65-inch and larger TVs, with the average shipment size reaching a record 53.4 inches [5]. - The global shipment of TCL's quantum dot TVs surged by 73.7% to 3.04 million units [5]. Group 4: Global Brand Expansion - TCL's global brand strategy includes partnerships with top sports and entertainment IPs, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition [8][9]. - The company became a global partner of the Olympics in February 2025, which is expected to boost its global exposure and brand image [8][9]. - In emerging markets, TCL's shipment volume grew by 17.9%, achieving the top market share in several countries [9]. Group 5: Future Value Drivers - TCL's dual strategy of high-end technology development and global brand penetration positions it as a key player in the smart terminal ecosystem [7][11]. - The integration of Mini LED and AI technologies creates a competitive moat in display quality and smart interaction [11][12]. - The ongoing transformation led by Chinese companies is anticipated to reshape the consumer electronics landscape over the next decade [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the public fund allocation ratio for the home appliance sector decreased by 15.4% to a market value of 99.56 billion yuan, with a public fund allocation ratio of 3.85%, down by 0.72 percentage points [9] - Among the sub-sectors, the black appliance segment saw an increase in public fund allocation, while the white and small appliances experienced declines [12] - TCL Electronics expects a net profit of approximately 950 million to 1.08 billion HKD for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% due to its focus on globalization and high-end product development [16][17] -泉峰控股 anticipates a net profit of approximately 90 million to 100 million USD for H1 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase driven by revenue growth and contributions from high-margin brands [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Q2 2025 Home Appliance Sector Fund Allocation - The public fund holding market value for the home appliance sector was 99.56 billion yuan, down 15.4% [9] - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors were as follows: white appliances (3.05%), small appliances (0.30%), black appliances (0.20%), appliance components (0.26%), kitchen and bathroom appliances (0.02%), and lighting equipment (0.01%) [12] 2. Key Company Announcements - TCL Electronics projects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by advancements in high-end display technologies and improved product competitiveness [16] -泉峰控股 expects a substantial profit increase due to growth in its proprietary brand business and favorable currency effects [18] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - LME copper price increased by 1.3% and aluminum price by 2.5% as of July 25, 2025 [19] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.24% as of July 25, 2025, with a slight decline in the USD to RMB exchange rate [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, with significant declines in construction and new starts [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [8]. Core Insights - The third batch of national subsidies has been allocated, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy continuity. The consumption upgrade policy has driven rapid growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories, with over 280 million people applying for the subsidy, resulting in sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [3][12][20]. - The retail sales of major home appliance categories have shown significant year-on-year growth, with air conditioning and audio-visual equipment increasing by 30.7% and 25.4%, respectively, contributing to a 5% growth in total retail sales [3][12][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following areas due to expected recovery in domestic demand supported by policy: 1. Major appliances benefiting from the old-for-new policy, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and TCL Electronics [5][21]. 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient against economic cycles, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [5][21]. 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see demand recovery from a low base, recommending companies like Bear Electric and Anta Sports [5][21]. 4. Electric two-wheelers, with a strong outlook for domestic sales improvement, recommending companies like Ninebot and Yadea [5][21]. Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a slight increase of 0.3% this week, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods down 0.1%, black goods up 0.8%, small appliances up 1.1%, and kitchen appliances up 2.5% [4][25]. - Raw material prices have seen a decrease, with LME copper and aluminum down by 1.46% and 1.04%, respectively [4][25]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the long-term theme of international expansion, recommending attention to leading companies in clean appliances and major appliances that are gaining global market share [6][22]. - The restructuring of global manufacturing continues to favor Chinese manufacturing, with recommendations for companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are leading in global market share for major appliances and tools [6][22]. Company Performance Tracking - The report includes detailed sales data tracking for key companies in various segments, indicating performance trends and market positioning [36][37][41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 950 million to 1.08 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Global Market Performance - The company is capitalizing on the global trend towards larger screens, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in global TV shipments, totaling 13.46 million units, maintaining a top two position globally [1] - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments reached 1.37 million units, a substantial increase of 176.1% year-on-year, securing the top global position with a market share increase of 6.6 percentage points to 10.8% [1] - In the international market, TCL TV shipments grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with shipments of 75-inch and larger TVs increasing by 57.9%, raising their market share by 2.5 percentage points to 8.1% [2] Group 2: Regional Market Insights - In the Chinese market, TCL TV shipments grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with the TCL brand specifically seeing a 10.2% increase, maintaining a top two retail position [3] - The company achieved a 13.2% year-on-year increase in shipments of 75-inch and larger TVs in China, with their market share rising by 3.1 percentage points to 36.3% [3] - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments in China surged by 154.2% year-on-year, with a market share increase of 12.7 percentage points to 20.9% [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Strategy - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation, automation, and optimized supply chain management, leading to a reduction in overall expense ratios [3] - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "TCL + Thunderbird" to penetrate the mid-to-high-end market segment [3] - The company aims to expand its global market share in the black goods sector while improving the proportion of high-end products in its portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a forecasted range of approximately HKD 950 million to HKD 1.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The midpoint of the profit forecast is HKD 1.015 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 55% [2]. - The company's stock incentive plan is highly likely to meet the performance target of HKD 2.008 billion for 2025, which represents a growth of over 25% compared to the adjusted net profit for 2024 [2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is entering a performance realization phase, driven by enhanced product competitiveness and a successful global mid-to-high-end strategy [3]. - The company has improved its supply chain and channel management, leading to better risk response capabilities [3]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant improvement in core business scale and product/channel structure, with innovative businesses maintaining high growth [3]. Group 3: Product and Market Performance - The company's television segment, particularly Miniled TV, has seen a rapid increase in shipment proportion, indicating product structure optimization [3]. - In Q2 2025, global TV shipments reached 6.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with domestic shipments at 1.4 million units (down 3.3%) and overseas shipments at 5.55 million units (up 6.2%) [3]. - The penetration rate of Miniled TVs has increased significantly, with approximately 820,000 units shipped globally in 2025, accounting for 11.8% of total shipments [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the net profit margin for the second half of 2025 will accelerate due to ongoing domestic market support and the continued push for larger and Miniled TVs in overseas markets [3].