Supply Side - The oligopoly structure has formed, with mainland Chinese manufacturers achieving absolute dominance in the LCD sector, leading to stable profitability due to cyclical weakening [2] - The reduction in supply from panel manufacturers during the Spring Festival will further support the upward trend in panel prices [3] Demand Side - The World Cup events in North America and Mexico are driving demand, while rising storage costs are accelerating the trend towards larger TV sizes, with BOM cost for storage in TVs expected to rise from 2.5-3% to 6-7% [3] - TCL Electronics' acquisition of Sony's TV division poses a challenge to Samsung's global TV leadership, with projected shipments in 2025 showing only a 1 million unit difference between TCL+Sony and Samsung [3] Upstream Panels - Mainland China's LCD panel global market share is 72%, with TCL Huaxing and BOE holding over 50% market share [4] - The depreciation peak for TCL Huaxing's panel lines has passed, releasing profit elasticity, with overall depreciation expected to decline from 2026 onwards [4] Downstream TVs - The global shipment of MiniLED TVs is expected to exceed 20 million units by 2026, with a penetration rate surpassing 10%, which will indirectly reduce panel cost proportions [5] - The combination of MiniLED technology and larger sizes is expected to alleviate cost pressures, with TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual continuing to be favored for their global strategies and technological leadership [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the industry, anticipating a price increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [55]. Core Insights - The global TV market is expected to experience a slight decline in total shipments by 0.5% in 2026, despite a 1.6% increase in shipment area in 2025, driven by structural improvements and a shift from scale-driven to value-driven growth [11][15]. - The average TV size has increased to 53.6 inches, with OLED TV shipments growing by 6.9% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards higher-end products [11][12]. - The market is seeing a significant regional disparity, with emerging markets like Latin America, Middle East & Africa, and Asia-Pacific showing growth rates of 5.8%, 3.0%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Chinese market has declined by 8.8% [15]. - TV panel prices have seen a slight increase in early 2026, with demand from top brands rising by 5% in January, although a 7% decline was noted in February due to seasonal factors [17][18]. Market and Sector Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.98%, while the home appliance index rose by 2.11% during the week [22]. - Notable stock performances included Sichuan Changhong (+22.33%), Skyworth Digital (+17.52%), and Ecovacs (+17.40%), while Galaxy Electronics (-6.73%) and *ST Tongzhou (-5.18%) saw declines [22]. Raw Material Prices - Copper prices decreased by 1.13%, while aluminum prices increased by 0.10% during the week of February 2-6, 2026 [28]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have risen by 2.14%, and aluminum prices by 1.98%, indicating fluctuating raw material costs that could impact the industry [28]. Real Estate Data - In December 2025, new residential construction, construction in progress, completions, and sales all showed significant year-on-year declines of -19.9%, -10.4%, -20.3%, and -10.0% respectively, indicating ongoing pressure on the home appliance sector [37][43]. Investment Recommendations - Leading brands are expected to achieve stable growth due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power. The report recommends TCL Electronics, Hisense Visual, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home as key investment opportunities [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the nominal appreciation of the RMB is expected to have limited impact on export recovery and external sales profitability, as leading brands have strong pricing power, overseas production capacity, and effective foreign exchange hedging [8][11] - The report emphasizes that the home appliance sector is likely to benefit from increased foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation, with the sector's valuation and holdings at historical lows, indicating significant upside potential [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Nominal Appreciation and Dollar Price Elasticity - Since Q2 2025, the RMB has appreciated approximately 5% due to the easing of trade tensions and economic recovery expectations, with the CFETS index remaining close to its 3-5 year average [11][12] - The report discusses the impact of exchange rates on export volume and pricing, noting that during appreciation phases, exporters may adjust dollar prices or lower RMB prices to mitigate the effects of appreciation [12][22] 2. Financial Statements: External Sales Profitability and Hedging - External sales gross margins have been under pressure, with historical data showing that external sales margins are generally weaker than domestic sales margins [4][6] - The report indicates that major companies have high foreign exchange hedging ratios, which effectively mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their financials [4][6] 3. Capital: High Foreign Ownership Proportion - The report notes a strong correlation between RMB appreciation and net inflows of foreign capital, with the home appliance sector consistently attracting significant foreign investment [7][8] - The sector's Northbound trading and public fund holdings are at historical lows, suggesting ample room for upward movement [7] 4. Industry Perspective and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that under the expectation of moderate appreciation, the competitive edge of leading companies backed by domestic supply chain advantages and proactive overseas capacity expansion will remain intact [8] - Recommended stocks include high-quality white goods leaders such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV leader Hisense Visual and global leaders in robotic vacuum cleaners like Roborock and Ecovacs [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Chinese companies are significantly increasing their market share in the Japanese television market, projected to reach 60% by 2025, highlighting the need for Japanese companies to adapt their business models [1][4] - Chinese companies are outperforming Japanese firms in pricing, with TCL's 43-inch 4K LCD TV priced at approximately 50,000 yen (around 2,211 RMB), compared to Sony's price of about 100,000 yen (around 4,422 RMB) [1] - According to BCN Research, REGZA is expected to lead the Japanese TV market, while the combined market share of Hisense and TCL will account for 50%, potentially increasing to 60% if Sony's brand shifts to a TCL-led joint venture [1] Group 2 - Global television market data from Euromonitor International shows that Samsung Electronics is the leading company, with LG Electronics, Hisense, and TCL collectively holding over 50% of the global market share [3] - Chinese companies are not only enhancing their cost competitiveness but also improving their technological capabilities, moving away from the perception that "cheap products are of low quality" [3] - The earlier announcement by Sony Group regarding the spin-off of its television business into a joint venture with TCL represents a significant restructuring of its home entertainment segment [4]

FF301 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: TCL電子控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01070 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 3,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 3,000,000,000 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 第 1 頁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods companies, but historical data suggests that the negative impact on gross margins may diminish over time [1][2] Group 1: Raw Material Price Impact - Since 2008, the home appliance industry has experienced three significant raw material price increase cycles, with the impact on gross margins decreasing over time: the highest quarterly gross margin decline was 5-7 percentage points during 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and approximately 2 percentage points from 2020-2022 [1] - In January 2026, copper and aluminum prices increased by 36.7% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively, which is lower than the increases seen from 2020-2022, suggesting that the current raw material cost impact on white goods companies may be less severe [2] Group 2: Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a projected 5.0% decline for January-February combined [3] - The production performance of white goods has shown signs of recovery, with the impact of the Spring Festival timing affecting February production, but cumulative growth for January-February has slightly improved [3] Group 3: Retail Market Performance - In 2025, the retail scale of China's home appliance market is expected to decline by 4.3% year-on-year to 893.1 billion yuan, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively [4] - Small home appliances are expected to perform better, with an overall retail growth of 3.8%, indicating a relative resilience compared to larger appliances [4] Group 4: Key Data Tracking - In January, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -2.6%, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum increasing by 7.8% and 4.8% month-on-month, respectively [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the white goods sector include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, while TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are recommended in the black goods sector [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical positioning of silver indicators, noting that 93% of historical dates are below 200%, while the current level exceeds 1800%, indicating potential price adjustments during the decline phase of silver [11] - It highlights the macroeconomic narratives, including geopolitical tensions and the impact of the new Federal Reserve chair, suggesting that the current market is less influenced by overseas factors [3][12] - The investment strategy focuses on three main areas: core growth assets, global competitive advantages, and emerging growth sectors, with specific recommendations for companies in these categories [14] Company Summaries TCL Electronics (01070) - TCL Electronics is forming a joint venture with Sony, where TCL will hold 51% and Sony 49%, aiming to leverage cost and technology advantages in the large-size and mini LED sectors [15] - The joint venture is expected to enhance TCL's high-end product series capabilities [15] Mao Geping (01318) - The brand is expanding its global presence with a new store in Hong Kong and a focus on integrating Eastern aesthetics with modern art, enhancing its international brand narrative [16] Anjuke Food (603345) - The company is shifting from a reliance on large B2B clients to a selective supermarket customization strategy, collaborating with major retailers to launch tailored products, resulting in a 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase in the supermarket channel [17] Chengda Pharmaceutical (301201) - Chengda is transitioning towards biocell therapy, developing innovative drug pipelines and forming strategic partnerships, including a significant collaboration with Chiron Pharma, which has led to clinical advancements [19] Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179) - The company has established strong partnerships with major domestic truck manufacturers and is focused on expanding its automotive component offerings, leveraging over 20 years of industry experience [20] Jianghuai Automobile (600418) - Jianghuai is developing a new generation of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, integrating advanced technologies from partnerships with high-tech companies like Huawei [21] Chip Origin (688521) - The company reported significant growth in its chip design and mass production businesses, with a 290.82% quarter-on-quarter increase in design revenue and a 132.77% increase in mass production revenue [22] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's performance exceeded expectations with a 15.4% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong sales and R&D efficiency, leading to a notable increase in net profit [23] China Resources Land (01109) - The company is transitioning its real estate service platform to offer comprehensive lifecycle services, enhancing customer engagement through a new digital platform [24] China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) - The company is benefiting from rising oil shipping rates, with Q4 2025 VLCC average rates reaching $94,000 per day, marking a significant increase in operational profits [26]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics has seen a stock increase of over 5%, attributed to a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture focused on home entertainment business, which is expected to enhance both companies' market presence globally [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - TCL Electronics announced a strategic cooperation memorandum with Sony to establish a joint venture, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [1] - The joint venture will operate globally, covering product development, design, manufacturing, sales, logistics, and customer service for products including televisions and home audio systems [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that this collaboration is likely to achieve complementary advantages and accelerate the development of both companies' television businesses in overseas markets [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - TCL Electronics projected an adjusted net profit for the fiscal year 2025 to be between 2.33 billion to 2.57 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 45% to 60% [1] - Tianfeng Securities views TCL Electronics as a leading player in the global television industry, with ongoing improvements in mid-to-high-end and global operational capabilities driving steady market share expansion [1] - The company is also strengthening growth drivers outside its main business areas, including solar energy, comprehensive marketing, and internet services [1] - The earnings announcement exceeded expectations, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 2.47 billion, 2.88 billion, and 3.45 billion HKD respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics has seen a stock increase of over 5% following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture focused on home entertainment products [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - TCL Electronics and Sony have signed a memorandum of understanding to create a joint venture, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [1] - The joint venture will operate globally, covering product development, design, manufacturing, sales, logistics, and customer service for products including televisions and home audio systems [1] - This collaboration is expected to leverage the strengths of both companies, accelerating their television business growth in overseas markets [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - TCL Electronics anticipates an adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 2.33 billion to HKD 2.57 billion for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 45% to 60% [1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights TCL Electronics as a leading player in the global television industry, with ongoing improvements in mid-to-high-end and global operational capabilities driving steady market share expansion [1] - The company is also strengthening growth drivers outside its main business areas, including solar energy, comprehensive marketing, and internet services [1] - Due to better-than-expected earnings announcements, projections for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 are HKD 2.47 billion, HKD 2.88 billion, and HKD 3.45 billion, respectively [1]

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