Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is experiencing stable growth, particularly in the black and clean appliance sectors, with mid-term performance being relatively strong [1] - The home appliance index has seen a 3.07% increase as of July 25, 2025, but the market is concerned about the sustainability of growth due to policy uncertainties and declining export figures [3][6] - The report highlights the impact of government policies, such as the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has provided support for domestic demand but is expected to see diminishing returns in the latter half of the year [16][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Institutional Allocation - As of July 25, 2025, the home appliance index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 4.85% [6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the home appliance sector is 14.69, below the historical average of 17.63 [6] 2. Domestic Demand and Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver for domestic sales, but its effectiveness is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025 due to funding gaps [16][23] - Retail sales in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [22] 3. Export Challenges - Home appliance exports have faced challenges, with significant declines in April, May, and June 2025, attributed to U.S. tariff policies and a high base from the previous year [4][42] - The report notes that companies with production capabilities in Southeast Asia may have a competitive advantage, while others face pressure on profit margins due to late-stage capacity expansions [4] 4. Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning market is expected to see high demand in 2024, driven by government subsidies, but June 2025 sales were below expectations [48][61] - The average selling price of air conditioners has stabilized after a decline earlier in the year, with competition expected to remain intense [81] 5. Black Appliances and Globalization - The global market for televisions is stabilizing, with TCL Electronics projecting a significant increase in mid-term profits due to rising demand [3] - The report emphasizes the trend towards high-end and large-screen televisions, with Mini LED technology expected to see substantial growth [3] 6. Clean Appliances - The clean appliance sector is benefiting from government subsidies, with strong retail growth observed [3] - Companies like Ecovacs have reported better-than-expected mid-term performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics announces a strong earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, projecting adjusted net profit to reach between HKD 950 million and HKD 1.08 billion, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The expected high growth in earnings is attributed to improved product structure and quality growth in core business, alongside rapid growth in innovative business [2] - TCL's global TV shipments reached 13.46 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, maintaining its position as the second-largest TV manufacturer globally [3] - Mini LED TV shipments surged by 176.1% to 1.37 million units, making TCL the global leader in Mini LED TV shipments [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In the Chinese market, TCL's brand upgrade and technological innovation have led to a 10.2% year-on-year increase in shipments of mid-to-high-end TCL brand TVs [4] - TCL's Mini LED TVs achieved a retail volume of over 270,000 units during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the industry [4] - TCL's global supply chain and channel advantages have been reinforced, with significant retail volume rankings in various international markets [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The global TV market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with Korean brands facing significant declines in profits, while TCL is capitalizing on this shift [6] - Samsung's video display division reported a 46% drop in Q2 operating profit, while LG Electronics is expected to incur substantial losses [6] - TCL's market share in the high-end TV segment has increased from 13% to 19%, while Samsung's share has decreased from 39% to 28% [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements - TCL's early investment in Mini LED technology has positioned it as a leader in the high-end TV market, with significant advancements in product offerings [9] - The company has developed innovative solutions to address Mini LED challenges, enhancing its market position and driving down prices [9] - TCL's vertical integration strategy has allowed it to convert technological advantages into competitive pricing, facilitating broader market penetration [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The strong growth of TCL Electronics and the decline of Korean giants indicate a significant shift in the global TV industry value chain [11] - As TCL continues to leverage its technological and supply chain strengths, it is poised to redefine industry standards and capture greater market share in the high-end segment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese television market in the first half of 2025 shows a clear trend of "stable volume and rising prices," driven by consumption upgrades and a shift towards larger and higher-end products [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the retail volume of color TVs increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while retail revenue grew by 7.5% [1]. - TCL Electronics is a market leader, with a projected adjusted net profit of HKD 9.5-10.8 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 45%-65% [1][3]. - TCL's global TV shipment reached 13.46 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, maintaining its position among the top two globally [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - TCL is a pioneer in Mini LED technology, having established a comprehensive technology chain and recently launched the "万象分区" technology, enhancing light control precision [3][4]. - The company has introduced the fourth generation of LCD TVs, achieving nearly 100% visible area and addressing industry challenges such as screen bezels [3]. - Mini LED TVs are expected to see global shipments double to 16 million units by 2025, significantly outpacing OLED TVs [4]. Group 3: Product Strategy - TCL's strategy of focusing on larger and mid-to-high-end products has led to a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in shipments of 65-inch and larger TVs, with the average shipment size reaching a record 53.4 inches [5]. - The global shipment of TCL's quantum dot TVs surged by 73.7% to 3.04 million units [5]. Group 4: Global Brand Expansion - TCL's global brand strategy includes partnerships with top sports and entertainment IPs, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition [8][9]. - The company became a global partner of the Olympics in February 2025, which is expected to boost its global exposure and brand image [8][9]. - In emerging markets, TCL's shipment volume grew by 17.9%, achieving the top market share in several countries [9]. Group 5: Future Value Drivers - TCL's dual strategy of high-end technology development and global brand penetration positions it as a key player in the smart terminal ecosystem [7][11]. - The integration of Mini LED and AI technologies creates a competitive moat in display quality and smart interaction [11][12]. - The ongoing transformation led by Chinese companies is anticipated to reshape the consumer electronics landscape over the next decade [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the public fund allocation ratio for the home appliance sector decreased by 15.4% to a market value of 99.56 billion yuan, with a public fund allocation ratio of 3.85%, down by 0.72 percentage points [9] - Among the sub-sectors, the black appliance segment saw an increase in public fund allocation, while the white and small appliances experienced declines [12] - TCL Electronics expects a net profit of approximately 950 million to 1.08 billion HKD for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% due to its focus on globalization and high-end product development [16][17] -泉峰控股 anticipates a net profit of approximately 90 million to 100 million USD for H1 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase driven by revenue growth and contributions from high-margin brands [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Q2 2025 Home Appliance Sector Fund Allocation - The public fund holding market value for the home appliance sector was 99.56 billion yuan, down 15.4% [9] - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors were as follows: white appliances (3.05%), small appliances (0.30%), black appliances (0.20%), appliance components (0.26%), kitchen and bathroom appliances (0.02%), and lighting equipment (0.01%) [12] 2. Key Company Announcements - TCL Electronics projects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by advancements in high-end display technologies and improved product competitiveness [16] -泉峰控股 expects a substantial profit increase due to growth in its proprietary brand business and favorable currency effects [18] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - LME copper price increased by 1.3% and aluminum price by 2.5% as of July 25, 2025 [19] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.24% as of July 25, 2025, with a slight decline in the USD to RMB exchange rate [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, with significant declines in construction and new starts [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [8]. Core Insights - The third batch of national subsidies has been allocated, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy continuity. The consumption upgrade policy has driven rapid growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories, with over 280 million people applying for the subsidy, resulting in sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [3][12][20]. - The retail sales of major home appliance categories have shown significant year-on-year growth, with air conditioning and audio-visual equipment increasing by 30.7% and 25.4%, respectively, contributing to a 5% growth in total retail sales [3][12][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following areas due to expected recovery in domestic demand supported by policy: 1. Major appliances benefiting from the old-for-new policy, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and TCL Electronics [5][21]. 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient against economic cycles, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [5][21]. 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see demand recovery from a low base, recommending companies like Bear Electric and Anta Sports [5][21]. 4. Electric two-wheelers, with a strong outlook for domestic sales improvement, recommending companies like Ninebot and Yadea [5][21]. Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a slight increase of 0.3% this week, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods down 0.1%, black goods up 0.8%, small appliances up 1.1%, and kitchen appliances up 2.5% [4][25]. - Raw material prices have seen a decrease, with LME copper and aluminum down by 1.46% and 1.04%, respectively [4][25]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the long-term theme of international expansion, recommending attention to leading companies in clean appliances and major appliances that are gaining global market share [6][22]. - The restructuring of global manufacturing continues to favor Chinese manufacturing, with recommendations for companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are leading in global market share for major appliances and tools [6][22]. Company Performance Tracking - The report includes detailed sales data tracking for key companies in various segments, indicating performance trends and market positioning [36][37][41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 950 million to 1.08 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Global Market Performance - The company is capitalizing on the global trend towards larger screens, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in global TV shipments, totaling 13.46 million units, maintaining a top two position globally [1] - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments reached 1.37 million units, a substantial increase of 176.1% year-on-year, securing the top global position with a market share increase of 6.6 percentage points to 10.8% [1] - In the international market, TCL TV shipments grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with shipments of 75-inch and larger TVs increasing by 57.9%, raising their market share by 2.5 percentage points to 8.1% [2] Group 2: Regional Market Insights - In the Chinese market, TCL TV shipments grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with the TCL brand specifically seeing a 10.2% increase, maintaining a top two retail position [3] - The company achieved a 13.2% year-on-year increase in shipments of 75-inch and larger TVs in China, with their market share rising by 3.1 percentage points to 36.3% [3] - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments in China surged by 154.2% year-on-year, with a market share increase of 12.7 percentage points to 20.9% [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Strategy - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation, automation, and optimized supply chain management, leading to a reduction in overall expense ratios [3] - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "TCL + Thunderbird" to penetrate the mid-to-high-end market segment [3] - The company aims to expand its global market share in the black goods sector while improving the proportion of high-end products in its portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a forecasted range of approximately HKD 950 million to HKD 1.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The midpoint of the profit forecast is HKD 1.015 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 55% [2]. - The company's stock incentive plan is highly likely to meet the performance target of HKD 2.008 billion for 2025, which represents a growth of over 25% compared to the adjusted net profit for 2024 [2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is entering a performance realization phase, driven by enhanced product competitiveness and a successful global mid-to-high-end strategy [3]. - The company has improved its supply chain and channel management, leading to better risk response capabilities [3]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant improvement in core business scale and product/channel structure, with innovative businesses maintaining high growth [3]. Group 3: Product and Market Performance - The company's television segment, particularly Miniled TV, has seen a rapid increase in shipment proportion, indicating product structure optimization [3]. - In Q2 2025, global TV shipments reached 6.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with domestic shipments at 1.4 million units (down 3.3%) and overseas shipments at 5.55 million units (up 6.2%) [3]. - The penetration rate of Miniled TVs has increased significantly, with approximately 820,000 units shipped globally in 2025, accounting for 11.8% of total shipments [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the net profit margin for the second half of 2025 will accelerate due to ongoing domestic market support and the continued push for larger and Miniled TVs in overseas markets [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company has released a positive mid-year profit forecast for 2025, expecting an adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 950 million to HKD 1.08 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% compared to the same period in 2024 [2][5]. - The company's global strategy focusing on "globalization" and "mid-to-high-end" products is showing initial success, with a significant increase in the shipment of large-screen TVs and Mini LED TVs [5]. - TCL's TV shipments reached 13.46 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, maintaining a top-two global ranking [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - TCL Electronics is experiencing a structural upgrade in its product offerings, coupled with cost optimization, leading to impressive growth in net profit [5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with projections of HKD 950 million to HKD 1.08 billion, marking a 45% to 65% increase from the previous year [2][5]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of HKD 114.65 billion in 2025, up from HKD 99.32 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [9]. Market Position - TCL's global TV shipment volume is on the rise, with a notable 176.1% increase in Mini LED TV shipments, positioning the company as a leader in this segment [5]. - The company has strengthened its market presence in both international and domestic markets, with significant growth in large-screen TV sales [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its global supply chain and brand marketing, having become a global partner of the Olympics in early 2025 [5]. - In the Chinese market, TCL is advancing its dual-brand strategy with "TCL + Thunderbird," achieving a 10.2% year-on-year increase in shipments [5]. Operational Efficiency - TCL has improved its operational efficiency through digital transformation and automation, leading to a reduction in overall expense ratios [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [6][11]. Core Views - The company's performance forecast for the first half of 2025 aligns with expectations, with a high degree of certainty in achieving the annual equity incentive targets. The shipment proportion of Miniled TVs is rapidly increasing, indicating an optimization in product structure [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 78,986 million HKD in 2023 to 116,552 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 744 million HKD in 2023 to 2,125 million HKD in 2025, with a significant increase of 137% in 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 12.19 in 2025, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to reach 1.42 [4]. Performance Drivers - The company is entering a phase of performance realization, driven by two main growth engines: enhanced product competitiveness and a global mid-to-high-end strategy, alongside improved supply chain and channel management [11]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in the shipment of Miniled TVs, with global TV shipments reaching 6.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The domestic market saw a decrease of 3.3%, while overseas shipments increased by 6.2% [11]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be between 950 million HKD and 1.08 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.84 HKD, with subsequent years showing growth to 0.99 HKD in 2026 and 1.12 HKD in 2027 [11][12]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong global competitive position, with a well-established production capacity and a focus on digital transformation and automation to enhance operational efficiency [11]. - The target price for TCL Electronics is set at 11.76 HKD, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance and market positioning [11].

Core Viewpoint - Both TCL Electronics and Crystal Integrated are expected to report significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and market strategies [1][8]. TCL Electronics - For the first half of 2025, TCL Electronics anticipates a net profit of approximately HKD 9.5 billion to HKD 10.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 45% to 65% [2]. - The substantial profit increase is attributed to two main factors: 1. Increased investment in high-end display technologies like Mini LED and artificial intelligence, enhancing product competitiveness and supporting a global mid-to-high-end strategy [3]. 2. Digital transformation initiatives that improve operational efficiency in manufacturing and logistics, alongside a reduction in overall expense ratios [3]. - TCL's TV sales data for the first half of 2025 shows strong performance in large-size TVs, with global shipments of 65 inches and above increasing by 29.7%, and 75 inches and above also growing by 29.7% [4]. - The average size of TCL TVs shipped globally increased by 1.5 inches to 53.4 inches, with Mini LED TV shipments reaching 1.37 million units, a 6.6 percentage point increase to 10.8% of total shipments [4]. - In international markets, TCL TV shipments grew by 8.7%, with significant increases in large-size products, particularly in Europe and emerging markets [6]. - In North America, despite an overall shipment decline of 7.3%, large-size TV shipments saw a notable increase, with 65 inches and above growing by 60.5% [7]. - In China, TCL TV shipments increased by 3.5%, with Mini LED TV shipments benefiting from government policies, showing a year-on-year increase of 154.2% [7]. Crystal Integrated - For the first half of 2025, Crystal Integrated expects revenue between CNY 5.07 billion and CNY 5.32 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.29% to 20.97% [8]. - The anticipated net profit is projected to be between CNY 260 million and CNY 390 million, indicating a growth of 39.04% to 108.55% [8]. - The growth is attributed to: 1. Increased product sales and high capacity utilization due to the recovering industry environment [9]. 2. Strengthening of the company's position in display driver ICs (DDIC) and the rise of CMOS image sensors (CIS) as a key product [9]. 3. A 15% increase in R&D investment, leading to the mass production of advanced chips, including 40nm high-voltage OLED display driver chips [9].