全球市场：格局相对分散，电助力自行车市场广阔 1)竞争格局：按零售量/零售额计前五大公司分别占19.4%/12.0%的市场份额。零售量角度大行排名第 一，零售量份额为6.2%;零售额角度Brompton小布排名第一，零售额份额为6.2%，大行排名第二、占 2.9%。Brompton在销售额上保持领先，但其龙头地位正受到挑战;大行增长迅猛;德国品牌Birdy等则凭借 独特技术和性能服务于小众性能玩家;此外，新品牌如Viribus快速崛起。2)美国亚马逊平台：分品类 看，美国线上自行车市场的品类结构与中国有较大差别，电动自行车(E-Bike)为第一大品类，折叠车占 比较低;折叠自行车分品牌看，电商集中度与全渠道比较高，小布一超多强占比大约在20-30%;电动自行 车分品牌看，电商集中度逐渐分散竞争日渐激烈，从一超多强到群雄逐鹿。3)海外市场趋势：电动自行 车热度领先，折叠自行车品牌大行与小布热度差距收窄。 风险提示：宏观经济与消费需求疲软;国际政治经济风险;市场竞争加剧风险 折叠自行车以轻巧+便携+适应城市生活为核心特点，成为城市通勤及休闲运动的新兴工具;技术工艺迭 代路径从追求便携轻巧到兼具专业性能。2019- ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月05日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-04 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3875.79 | 13006.71 | 4546.56 | 13937.07 | 3749.90 | 1326.16 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.05 | 0.39 | 0.34 | -0.06 | 0.23 | 1.36 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 6237.12 | 9252.47 | 3487.67 | 3137.25 | 4117.28 | 487.47 | $\frac{\pi\alpha}{\pi\alpha}\pm\frac{\pi\alpha}{\pi\alpha}$ (1998) (200) 行业与公司 计算机行业 2025 年 12 月投资策略暨财报总结-2025Q3：海外大厂业绩均 超预期，资本开支持续上行 北交所 2025 年 11 月月报：北证 50 震 ...

2025年12月04日 证券研究报告 | 户外新消费研究：折叠自行车行业专题 高景气新消费赛道，龙头引领扩容与破圈 行业研究 · 行业专题 耐用消费品 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 0755-81981391 0755-81982606 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn chenweiqi@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn lijing29@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980520110004 S0980523070003 S0980525080003 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：陈伟奇 证券分析师：刘佳琪 证券分析师：李晶 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 折叠自行车行业：小而美&高增速的新消费赛道。折叠自行车以轻巧+便携+适应城市生活为核心特点，成为城市通勤及休闲运动的新兴工具； 技术工艺迭代路径从追求便携轻巧到兼具专业性能。2019-2024年全球自行车需求整体平稳，折叠自行车渗透率低、增速快，在全球的销量渗 ...

Core Insights - Dahon, established in 1982 in the USA, is a leading global brand in the folding bicycle industry, holding the top market shares in China for retail volume (26.3%) and retail value (36.5%) in 2024 [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 254 million yuan to 451 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a CAGR of 33.2%, while net profit is expected to rise from 31 million yuan to 52 million yuan, with a CAGR of 29.0% [1] - The acceleration in growth since 2024 is attributed to the rapid establishment of offline specialty stores and increased online platform coverage [1] Company Performance - Dahon's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 319 million yuan, representing a 42.6% increase, while net profit was 38.84 million yuan, up 52.3% [1] - The company has significantly increased its retail points, collaborating with 38 domestic distributors to establish 720 retail locations [1] Industry Trends - The folding bicycle market is experiencing growth due to rising outdoor activities, increased health awareness among consumers, and supportive policies, with retail volume in China expected to reach 800,000 units and retail value 1.8 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The global folding bicycle market is projected to reach 3.7 million units and 23.1 billion yuan in retail value in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.4% and 20.8% from 2019 to 2024, respectively [3] Future Growth Drivers - Dahon plans to expand its customer base and product offerings post-IPO, focusing on marketing and offline channel development [4] - The company is actively exploring new product categories, including road bikes and electric bicycles, leveraging its technological and brand advantages [4] - Dahon's overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 20.69 million yuan, marking a 49.4% increase, with significant growth in the months of May and June [4]

Core Insights - Shenzhen is promoting a "cycling economy" by developing leisure cycling paths that connect urban and natural landscapes, appealing to young people and enhancing local tourism and commerce [1][4]. Group 1: Cycling Infrastructure Development - Shenzhen has established a comprehensive cycling path system, with a focus on a "1+3+N" model that includes one coastal cycling path, three major mountain-sea loops, and various district-specific routes [3]. - The city plans to complete over 1,000 kilometers of leisure cycling networks by 2035, enhancing connectivity and recreational opportunities [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Community Engagement - The cycling paths not only facilitate recreational activities but also connect major commercial areas, parks, and cultural venues, creating new consumption hotspots [4]. - Initiatives like "cycling + events," "cycling + tourism," and "cycling + commerce" are fostering a vibrant cycling lifestyle that attracts residents from the Greater Bay Area [4]. Group 3: Cycling Culture and Community Activities - Various community events, such as cycling festivals and fitness days, are promoting cycling culture and engagement among residents [5]. - Facilities like bike rental and repair stations are becoming common, enhancing the overall cycling experience [5]. Group 4: Bicycle Manufacturing Industry Transformation - The rise in cycling popularity is driving growth in bicycle and related equipment consumption, with companies transitioning from traditional manufacturing to smart manufacturing [6]. - Notable companies like Joyride and Dahon are innovating with advanced products, including smart e-bikes, and expanding their market reach globally [6][8].

Summary of Conference Call for Daxing Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Daxing Technology - **Industry**: Folding Bicycles and Electric Bicycles Key Points Industry and Market Expansion - Daxing has actively expanded its offline store network, adding approximately 100 new stores, bringing the total to over 820, with 60% located in new second-tier and third-fourth tier cities to meet the demand for folding bicycles in lower-tier markets [2][3][5] - Online sales have increased to 30% of total sales, up from 15% last year, indicating a significant shift towards e-commerce [3][5] Product Development and Launches - Daxing's joint venture with Dajin Technology has begun mass production at its Tianjin factory, focusing on mid to low-end products, which have a gross margin advantage of 10-12 percentage points in northern markets [2][4] - The P8 model continues to show strong growth, while the new P10 model targets the mid-range market, priced 500 RMB higher than P8, with a higher gross margin due to its aluminum alloy construction [2][8] - A new three-fold bicycle is set to launch by the end of 2025 or early 2026, aimed at the leisure cycling demographic, with a price range of 5,000-7,000 RMB, expected to enhance overall gross margins [2][11] Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, Daxing reported approximately 50% growth in both revenue and net profit, with expectations for continued strong performance in the third quarter [3][5] - Revenue growth is projected to exceed 50% for both 2025 and 2026, with net profit margins expected to improve by about one percentage point due to demand growth and high-margin product adjustments [5][17] - The company anticipates a 45% growth in domestic offline channels and a 70% growth in online channels for 2025, with overseas revenue expected to reach 70-80 million RMB [5][12] Competitive Advantages - Daxing's folding bicycles are positioned against competitors like Decathlon, with a focus on high-quality and innovative designs that enhance the riding experience [14][16] - The company has established a strong brand reputation and technical advantages, making it a preferred choice among cycling enthusiasts [16][29] Future Strategies - Daxing plans to continue expanding its offline store network and strengthen its online presence, with a focus on producing cost-effective low-end products at the Tianjin factory [9][20] - The company aims to reduce reliance on outsourcing, which currently incurs higher costs, to improve gross margins and net profits [18][19] International Market Outlook - By 2026, Daxing expects its overseas market share to reach around 15%, with significant growth potential in the US and European markets [20][21] - The company has seen a 50% growth in its overseas business in the first half of 2025, with expectations for a 200%-300% increase by year-end [21] Store Development and Investment - Daxing has seen a structural change in its store network, with a significant number of flagship stores contributing to higher revenue per store [22][23] - The investment required to open a Daxing store is approximately 300,000-400,000 RMB, with a payback period of about one year based on sales performance [25][27] Conclusion - Daxing Technology is positioned for robust growth in the folding bicycle market, leveraging its product innovation, strong brand reputation, and strategic expansion plans to capture increasing market demand and enhance profitability [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Da Hang Ke Gong (02543) rebounded over 10%, reaching a high of HKD 50.8, recovering from its previous drop below the IPO price of HKD 49.5, indicating positive market sentiment and investor confidence [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, the stock increased by 8.75%, trading at HKD 50.2 with a transaction volume of HKD 11.23 million [1] - The stock's rebound follows the partial exercise of the over-allotment option by the sole global coordinator on October 4, involving a total of 1,121,000 shares, approximately 14.15% of the total offering [1] Group 2: Financial Insights - The additional net proceeds from the share issuance amounted to HKD 52.8 million [1] - The stabilization period for the global offering ended on October 4 [1] Group 3: Company Overview - Da Hang Ke Gong specializes in the research, production, and sales of folding bicycles and related accessories, with bicycle revenue dominating at 98.1% of total income [1] - The company maintains a stable gross margin of over 30% [1] Group 4: Market Position and Analyst Rating - According to Cathay Haitong's research report, Da Hang Ke Gong operates in a high-growth segment of the folding bicycle market, which is considered a prominent growth area within the two-wheeled transportation sector [1] - The company is recognized for its comprehensive product matrix and channel expansion, leading to an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of HKD 76.57 [1]

Macro Research - The core CPI continued to rise year-on-year in September, reaching -0.3%, while the PPI decreased year-on-year by 2.3%. The overall price level still requires support for recovery [6] - Recent price trends show two main characteristics: first, the core CPI's rise is driven by external factors such as consumption subsidies and rising gold prices, with no significant improvement in endogenous consumer demand [6] - The market has strong expectations for the effects of anti-involution policies, but the recent rise in industrial product prices has been structural and mainly in raw materials and upstream sectors [6] Investment Banking and Brokerage Industry - The performance of listed brokerages is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 58.63% [8] - Adjusted operating revenue for 42 listed brokerages is projected to grow by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 165.15 billion yuan [8] - The brokerage business is expected to contribute the most to revenue growth, driven by a significant increase in market trading volume [8] Insurance Industry - The net profit of listed insurance companies is expected to grow significantly in Q3 2025, with a forecasted growth rate of 57.0% for New China Life Insurance [13] - The growth in life insurance premiums is driven by the optimization of asset allocation and increased equity asset configuration [14] - The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance is expected to improve despite pressures from natural disasters, with a projected COR of 96.1% for China Property Insurance [15] Shipping Industry - China's countermeasures against the US 301 investigation are expected to alleviate the impact on Chinese shipyards and shipping companies [17] - The new regulations impose special port fees on US-owned vessels docking at Chinese ports, which may lead to a reduction in effective shipping capacity and increased freight rates [19] - The shipping market is expected to see a rise in freight rates due to the countermeasures, with a projected increase in oil shipping rates [19] Company Coverage: Zhongxin Co., Ltd. - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 3.23, 5.47, and 7.08 yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 96.97 yuan based on a 30X PE ratio [21] - The company is focusing on global expansion and enhancing its overseas production capacity, with significant progress in its biodegradable product projects [24] - Continuous investment in technology and innovation is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and production efficiency [24] Company Coverage: 361 Degrees - The company is leading the industry in revenue growth, with a projected net profit of 12.9 billion yuan for 2025 [25] - The rapid expansion of the "super premium store" model is expected to drive further growth, with a target of opening 100 new stores [26] - The company is well-positioned for continued growth in the upcoming quarters, supported by strong product offerings and market demand [26] Company Coverage: Small Commodity City - The global trade center project is accelerating its leasing process, significantly boosting market revenue from rentals and services [27] - The company has raised its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting strong performance and market demand [30] - The digital trade ecosystem is rapidly growing, with a significant increase in cross-border payment transactions [30]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Haitong highlights the strong growth potential of the folding bicycle segment, recommending a "buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 76.57, projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.76 billion, 8.86 billion, and 11.11 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.79 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.32 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 50.7%, 32.9%, and 25.8% respectively [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.49, 3.31, and 4.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a diversified channel layout, with offline distribution accounting for 68.2% of revenue in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 45.2%, while online direct sales are growing even faster, expected to reach 1.00 billion in 2024 with a 72.5% year-on-year growth [2] - The product matrix is comprehensive, covering five categories: urban commuting, outdoor exploration, fashion, high-performance racing, and practical utility, with price ranges from over 5000 yuan to under 2500 yuan [2] - The company boasts strong R&D capabilities, holding 135 domestic and international patents and participating in the formulation of the national bicycle safety standard [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the strong growth potential of the folding bicycle segment, positioning the company as a prominent player in the two-wheeled transportation market, with a target price of HKD 76.57 and an "Accumulate" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.76 billion, 8.86 billion, and 11.11 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.79 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.32 billion [1] - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are forecasted at 50.7%, 32.9%, and 25.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.49, 3.31, and 4.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a diversified channel layout, with offline distribution accounting for 68.2% of revenue in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 45.2%, while online direct sales are growing even faster at 72.5% year-on-year, reaching 1.00 billion [2] - The product matrix is comprehensive, covering five categories: urban commuting, outdoor exploration, fashion, high-performance racing, and practical utility, with a price range that includes high-end (≥5000), mid-range (2500-5000), and budget (<2500) models [2] - The company leads in R&D capabilities, holding 135 domestic and international patents as of April 2025, and has been invited to participate in the formulation of the "National Bicycle Safety Standard" [2]