华福证券 煤炭 2024年03月13日 公 司 中国神华（ ） 601088.SH 持有 （首次评级） 研 究 一体化稳健经营无畏风浪，现金奶牛持续高比例 当前价格： 37.07元 目标价格： 41.14元 分红，市值管理考核推动估值修复 基本数据 投资要点： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 19869/16491  一体化稳健经营无畏风浪 流通A股市值(百万元) 736526/611323 每股净资产(元) 19.97 公司煤炭、电力、运输、煤化工业务一体化开发，产运销一条龙经营， 资产负债率(%) 24.72 各产业板块深度合作、有效协同。煤炭业务高长协提升业绩稳定性，2022 一年内最高/最低价(元) 41/27 年，公司84.97%的煤炭通过长协（年度+月度）进行销售；电力业务发电 一年内股价相对走势 公 量和售电量稳步上升，市场化交易电量占比持续提升，在建及待建主要发 司 电机组合计10800兆瓦；一体化运输网络连通北煤南运、西煤东运通道， 深 业绩持续稳定增长；包头煤制烯烃升级示范项目开工，产能将平稳释放带 度 动营收成长。 研 究  现金奶牛持续高比例分红 公司维持优化资本结构，2021-202 ...

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2024-007 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2024 年 2 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2024 | 年 | 2023 | 年 | 同比变化(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 月 | 累计 | 2 月 | 累计 | 2 月 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 25.9 | 53.1 | 25.9 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 38.6 | 77.1 | 38.3 | 68.4 | 0.8 | 12.7 | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 24.4 | 53.5 | 24.6 | 48.4 | ( ...

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2024-005 中国神华能源股份有限公司 关于第五届董事会第二十六次会议决议公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何 虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"中国神华"或"公司"）第五届董事会第二 十六次会议于 2024 年 2 月 8 日以电子邮件及无纸化办公系统方式向全体董事和 监事发送了会议通知，于 2 月 15 日发送了议程、议案等会议材料，并于 2024 年 2 月 26 日在北京市东城区安定门西滨河路 22 号神华大厦以现场结合通讯方式召 开。会议应出席董事 8 人，亲自出席董事 7 人，其中贾晋中董事以视频接入方式 参会，袁国强董事以电话接入方式参会。许明军董事因公请假，委托吕志韧董事 代为出席会议并投票。执行董事吕志韧召集并主持会议。董事会秘书宋静刚参加 会议，监事和高级管理人员列席会议。会议的召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》 及相关法律法规、上市地上市规则和《中国神华能源股份有限公司章程》的规定。 本次会议审议并通过以下议案： （ ...

2024 年 1 月，本公司煤炭销售量同比增长的主要原因，是上年同期受 2023 年春节假期影响基数较低；自有铁路运输周转量同比增长的主要原因，是 2024 年春节假期临近，下游客户储煤量增加；航运货运量及航运周转量同比增长的主 要原因，是货运需求同比增加以及进口运输等长航线业务量增加；发电量、售电 量同比增长的主要原因，是新机组投运导致发电量增加，以及上年同期受 2023 年春节假期影响基数较低。 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计。运营数据在月度之间可能存在较大 差异，其影响因素包括但不限于天气变化、设备检修、季节性因素和安全检查等。 运营数据可能与相关期间定期报告披露的数据有差异。投资者应注意不恰当信赖 或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2024-004 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2024 年 1 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | ...

Financial Performance - In 2023, China Shenhua achieved a coal production of 324.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2] - The total power generation reached 2,122.6 million kWh, up by 11.0% [2] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is between RMB 578 billion and RMB 657 billion, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year [3] - According to Chinese accounting standards, the estimated net profit is between RMB 608 billion and RMB 627 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.6% to 16.9% [3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of the annual net profit to shareholders in cash from 2022 to 2024 [3] - The 2023 dividend plan will consider company performance, market commitments, and sustainable development factors [3] Growth and Capacity Expansion - The company is focusing on enhancing coal mining efficiency and resource utilization [4] - New projects, including the acquisition of two coal mine assets, are underway to increase coal resources and production capacity [4] - The company has initiated the construction of 4 million kW of thermal power generation capacity, with over 7 million kW under construction [4] ESG Initiatives - China Shenhua has established an ESG management system and received recognition for its ESG practices, including being rated AA in the top 100 best practices for listed companies [5] - Future plans include enhancing ESG governance, improving information disclosure, and strengthening green transformation efforts [5] Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure plan for 2023 is approximately RMB 36.1 billion, with future annual investments expected to remain between RMB 30 billion and RMB 50 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The approval of mining licenses for New Street No. 1 and No. 2 wells, each with a production capacity of 8 million tons per year, is expected to stabilize the company's mid-term coal production [2]. - The New Street mining area, with a total resource reserve of approximately 15.3 billion tons, is a key project under the national energy group's "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The company anticipates a potential increase in coal production capacity of 60.7 million tons, which includes the acquisition of coal mines with a total recoverable reserve of 1.33 billion tons [2]. - The company's financial performance is stable, with a high dividend yield supported by a strong cash position and decreasing capital expenditures [2]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2023 to 2025 is estimated at 59.89 billion, 65.28 billion, and 66.73 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.29, and 3.36 yuan per share [2]. Summary by Sections Mining Licenses and Production Capacity - The New Street No. 1 and No. 2 wells have received mining licenses with a production capacity of 8 million tons per year each, valid for 30 years [2]. - The New Street mining area is the only large-scale undeveloped coalfield in the core coal area of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, covering approximately 800 square kilometers [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net cash level that is the highest in the industry, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 24.72% [2]. - The projected revenue for 2023 is 333.31 billion yuan, with a slight decrease from 2022, followed by a recovery in 2024 and 2025 [6]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60% to 72.8%, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 4.89% to 5.92% for 2023 [2]. - The company aims to enhance its valuation through stable performance, high dividends, and policy support [2].

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2024-003 特此公告。 承中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会命 总会计师、董事会秘书 宋静刚 2024 年 2 月 5 日 中国神华能源股份有限公司 关于新街一井、新街二井采矿许可证获得批准的公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市自然资源局的信息，本公司所属神华新街能源 有限责任公司新街台格庙矿区新街一井、新街二井采矿许可证获得批准。新街一 井采矿许可证所载生产规模为 800 万吨/年，矿区面积为 70.28 平方公里，有效期 限为 30 年（自 2024 年 2 月 1 日至 2054 年 2 月 1 日）；新街二井采矿许可证所 载生产规模为 800 万吨/年，矿区面积为 67.12 平方公里，有效期限为 30 年（自 2024 年 2 月 1 日至 2054 年 2 月 1 日）。 目前，新街一井、新街二井采矿许可证领取尚需办理勘查许可证注销等手续。 本公司将推进新街一井、新街二井的项目核 ...

动力煤 中国神华（601088.SH） 买入-A(上调) 煤、电、运产销同增，股息预期稳定及市值管理纳入考核有助投资 2024年2月2日 价值提升 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  公司发布2023年度业绩预告：公司预计2023年度实现归属于本公司股 东的净利润为578亿元至608亿元，同比减少88亿元至118亿元，下降12.6% 至16.9%。预计2023年度实现归属于本公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利 润为613亿元至643亿元，同比减少60亿元至90亿元，下降8.5%至12.8%。 事件点评  归母符合预期，扣非略超预期。2023年三季度以来受安监、环保等影响 煤炭供应增速明显放缓，叠加特别国债等稳经济政策陆续出台，国内煤电需 市场数据：2024年2月1日 求有所恢复，煤炭价格回升。全年来看，煤炭价格中枢有所回落，秦皇岛年 收盘价（元）： 36.30 度长协均价713.8元/吨，同比-1.1%，公司归母利润有所下滑符合预期，但 年内最高/最低（元）： 37.19/26.76 下滑幅度预计远低于行业平均水平，体现了公司全产业链运营的优势。此外， 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 164.91 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua Energy Company [1][6][8] Core Views - The company's performance is primarily affected by the decline in coal prices, while the electricity business benefits from increased sales volume and lower coal procurement costs [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 578 billion to 608 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% to 16.9% [3][4] - The integration of the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors provides a stable revenue stream, with a high proportion of long-term coal sales contracts [6][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q4 2023, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 95 billion to 125 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 36% to 16% and a year-on-year increase of 9% to 19% [2][4] - For the full year 2023, the company expects a net profit of 578 billion to 608 billion yuan, down from the previous year [3][4] Production and Sales - In 2023, the company achieved a coal production of 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and coal sales of 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [4][5] - The total power generation reached 212 billion kilowatt-hours, up 11% year-on-year, with total electricity sales also increasing by 11% [4][5] Pricing and Market Conditions - The annual long-term contract price for thermal coal is set at 710 yuan/ton for 2024, with the market price showing a narrowing fluctuation [5][6] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in January was 913 yuan/ton, down 4.7% from Q4 2023 but still higher than Q3 2023 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with projected net profits of 593.1 billion, 618.6 billion, and 641.5 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6][7] - The integration of the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in the A-share market, China Shenhua (601088.SH), a coal stock, saw a slight increase, closing at 35.76 yuan per share, surpassing the market value of leading new energy company CATL (300750.SZ) [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of January 29, China Shenhua's stock price reached a new high of 36.03 yuan per share, the highest since early 2008 [1] - In 2024, China Shenhua's A-share market value increased by over 70 billion yuan [1] - The company has been favored by investors, likely due to the recent coal market trends [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2023, China's coal production growth slowed significantly due to reduced new capacity, frequent safety incidents, and stricter regulations [1] - National coal production in 2023 was 4.66 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The coal price peaked at around 1,050 yuan per ton in mid-October 2023, before stabilizing between 900-980 yuan per ton [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Shenyin & Wanguo coal index (801950) rebounded with a 14.19% increase over four months since September 2023 [1] - Coal imports surged to 474 million tons in 2023, with thermal coal accounting for approximately 370 million tons, an increase of 140 million tons year-on-year [1] - The coal sector's dividend yield reached 8.07% in 2023, the highest since 2015, with China Shenhua's dividend yields from 2020 to 2022 being 10.05%, 11.28%, and 9.23% respectively [1] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced plans to incorporate market value management into the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders [1] - China Shenhua expressed commitment to actively implement the requirements of the market value management assessment [2]