Core Insights - The coal industry in China is experiencing a recovery in profitability despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices and corporate earnings [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The total electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in Q3 reached 1.76 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1% [2]. - Coal production and sales for 23 listed companies in the first three quarters were 940 million tons and 1.11 billion tons, respectively, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 [3]. - The average price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port rose from 641.7 yuan/ton to 679 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port increased from 1315.3 yuan/ton to 1566.7 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - The total profit for the coal industry in Q3 reached 75.5 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% [2]. - Among 37 listed coal companies, the net profit for Q3 was 29.942 billion yuan, up 22.83% from the previous quarter [3]. - Leading companies like China Shenhua reported a Q3 net profit of 14.7 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, driven by strong performance in the power sector [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As of November 12, the spot price for 5500 kcal coal in the Bohai Rim region reached 828 yuan/ton, exceeding the price at the beginning of the year [5]. - The coal market sentiment is currently high, with coastal power plant inventories down 5%-6% year-on-year due to slow replenishment during the off-season [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Wanjiac ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159333) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets year-to-date [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of November 19, 2024, the ETF closed up by 0.47% with a trading volume of 16.38 million yuan [1]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50% annually, and the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The ETF's performance benchmark is the ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index return (adjusted for valuation exchange rate) [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of November 18, 2024, the ETF has 328 million shares outstanding and a total size of 485 million yuan [1]. - Compared to December 31, 2024, the ETF's shares have decreased by 23.90% and its total size has decreased by 5.48% year-to-date [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 441 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 22.07 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has recorded a total trading volume of 8.108 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 38.06 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Holdings - The current fund manager is Yang Kun, who has managed the ETF since August 21, 2024, achieving a return of 52.34% during his tenure [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, China Nonferrous Mining, China Ocean Shipping, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, China Shenhua Energy, People's Insurance Group of China, CNOOC, and Agricultural Bank of China, with respective holding percentages [2].

Key Points - On November 14, significant net inflows were observed for Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981), with net inflows of 2.247 billion, 2.160 billion, and 798 million respectively [1][2] - The top three companies with the highest net outflows were China Shenhua (01088), China Life (02628), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -259 million, -248 million, and -213 million respectively [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, ICBC South China (03167), Southern Hong Kong Technology (03442), and Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) led the market with ratios of 100.00%, 83.79%, and 78.17% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios included Kunlun Energy (00135), Tongrentang (03613), and Modern Dairy (01117), with ratios of -56.35%, -48.89%, and -48.07% respectively [1][2] Top 10 Net Inflows - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 2.247 billion, representing a 14.18% increase, closing at 154.900 with a decrease of 4.38% [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 2.160 billion, with a 16.74% increase, closing at 641.000 with a decrease of 2.29% [2] - SMIC (00981) recorded a net inflow of 798 million, with an 11.40% increase, closing at 73.500 with a decrease of 2.78% [2] - Other notable inflows included Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 611 million and a 10.30% increase, and China Construction Bank (00939) with 559 million and a 36.81% increase [2] Top 10 Net Outflows - China Shenhua (01088) experienced a net outflow of -259 million, with a -46.43% decrease, closing at 41.640 with a decrease of 2.21% [2] - China Life (02628) had a net outflow of -248 million, representing an -8.70% decrease, closing at 27.380 with a decrease of 3.25% [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) saw a net outflow of -213 million, with a -9.27% decrease, closing at 67.100 with a decrease of 2.89% [2] - Other significant outflows included Agricultural Bank (01288) with -188 million and a -27.08% decrease, and Sanofi (01530) with -176 million and a -9.38% decrease [2] Net Inflow Ratios - ICBC South China (03167) achieved a net inflow ratio of 100.00% with a net inflow of 28,900 [3] - Southern Hong Kong Technology (03442) had a net inflow ratio of 83.79% with a net inflow of 20,525,100 [3] - Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) recorded a net inflow ratio of 78.17% with a net inflow of 203,000 [3] - Other notable ratios included China Everbright Bank (06818) with 75.72% and a net inflow of 1.07 billion [3]

Core Insights - Insurance capital continues to increase its allocation to equity assets, with the proportion of equity assets reaching near historical highs in Q3 2025 [1] - The allocation structure shows a significant increase in technology and a reduction in high-end manufacturing sectors [5][6] - Insurance capital has accelerated its stake acquisitions in listed companies, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, with a notable increase in the number of acquisitions compared to previous years [9] Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation of insurance capital to various asset classes is as follows: bank deposits (7.9%), bonds (50.3%), stocks (10.0%), funds (5.5%), long-term equity investments (7.9%), and other assets (18.4%) [1] - The investment proportions in bank deposits and bonds decreased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, while the investment in stocks and funds surged to 15.5%, approaching the historical peak of 16.1% in H1 2015 [1] Sector and Stock Preferences - Insurance capital has significantly increased its allocation to banks, steel, and textile sectors, while reducing holdings in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy and military [5] - Key stocks that saw increased investment include Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Hikvision, while reductions were noted in stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aviation Industry Corporation of China [6][8] Shareholding Activities - In 2025, insurance capital has made 30 stake acquisitions in listed companies, surpassing the total for the entire years of 2020 and 2024, with 25 of these acquisitions in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The trend indicates a shift towards acquiring dividend-yielding assets in Hong Kong due to declining bond yields and rising traditional dividend assets [9]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) has dropped 3.42%, trading at HKD 27.64 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) is down 2.73%, currently at HKD 40.6 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) has decreased by 2.47%, with a price of HKD 11.46 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (01088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (01898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices in the third quarter due to the impact of "anti-involution" [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, and it is believed that the short-term unexpected rise in coal prices may be coming to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent rise in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices is unlikely to change [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction and are shifting focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [10][27]. - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, and the cost of new wells is close to current oil prices, limiting profit margins. This suggests that the growth rate of US oil production is likely to slow down, with evidence of this trend emerging in the first half of 2025 [10][27]. - OPEC+ has implemented production cuts that exceed expectations, indicating that there will be limited supply growth in the coming year [10][27]. Oil Industry - OPEC has shifted its outlook from a supply shortage to an anticipated oversupply in the global oil market, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell to $63.14 per barrel, down 2.56% week-on-week, while WTI prices decreased to $59.69 per barrel, down 0.65% [11][32]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from the mid-high price fluctuations of oil, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [11]. Coal Industry - The market for thermal coal remains stable, with prices experiencing fluctuations. The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 817.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.67% from the previous week. However, downstream demand remains cautious, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic coal companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, which are expected to benefit from the stable pricing environment and their resource advantages [13]. Natural Gas Industry - There is a growing demand for LNG imports in Asia, driven by energy transition efforts in major economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea. This has led to active negotiations for long-term contracts with major LNG exporting countries [15][16]. - The average price of natural gas in the US increased to $4.5 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 4.6% rise from the previous week [15][30]. Oilfield Services Industry - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies reached 583.3 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% since 2018 [17][18]. - The report indicates that despite falling oil prices, capital expenditures remain high, which is likely to sustain the industry's overall health [17].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in prices due to the "check overproduction" policy, benefiting thermal coal companies through improved long-term contract performance and coal-electricity integration, while coking coal companies face pressure due to lagging contract pricing [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the coal sector saw a positive revenue growth, with thermal coal companies experiencing a better net profit growth compared to coking coal companies [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. - The overall performance of the coal industry is expected to continue improving due to increased heating demand and tight supply-side policies in Q4 [1][6]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The "check overproduction" policy in Q3 2025 led to stable production among leading thermal coal companies, while coking coal production saw a noticeable decline [2]. - Most listed coal companies did not significantly reduce their output in Q3, with some midstream companies experiencing high sales growth and accelerated inventory reduction due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the self-produced coal prices decreased year-on-year by 10% to 20%, while the sales prices of coal companies showed narrow fluctuations or slight increases, with most increases being less than 10% [3]. - The lag in price transmission from market coal prices to listed companies' sales prices is attributed to long-term contract pricing mechanisms and order delivery cycles [3]. Group 4: Cost Management - In H1 2025, coal companies shifted their strategies from volume-based to cost control, which became crucial in facing low coal prices and high inventory levels [4]. - Leading thermal coal companies maintained cost control in Q3 2025, achieving a decrease in unit costs, while some coking coal companies experienced an increase in unit sales costs, negatively impacting their performance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable production, rising prices, and cost reductions for thermal coal companies is expected to lead to improved profitability, while coking coal companies may see significant price rebounds in Q4 as long-term contracts adjust to higher market prices [5]. - The coal market is currently in a phase of tightening supply and increasing demand, with winter coal prices expected to remain strong due to seasonal heating needs and ongoing supply-side policies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Shanxi Coal International [8].