固收点评报告 2025 年 07月 25 日 银行二永债投资机会盘点 适度信用下沉策略下的二永债投资机会 投资要点: 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC: S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张一帆 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 量占比较高,但资产规模占参评银行的比例不足 1%。分区域看,绝大多数省份存量 风险已压降,区域金融生态持续优化。 A 风险提示:金融让利,LPR下调,可能导致银行业息差进一步收窄;经济超预期下 行,使得银行资产质量显著恶化;部分数据缺失导致结果或结论不够精准的风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 A 银行二永债投资筛选框架。本报告从以下五个维度构建银行二永债筛选框架:(1) 发行人主体资质与经营指标,包含股权性质、资产规模、经营区域、资产质量、经 营业绩、同业负债占比等六大维度;(2)央行的金融机构评级结果;(3)国内系统 重要性银行（D-SIBs）名单:(4)历史上未主动赎回银行二永债情况;(5)区域财 政收入含金量及债务压力情况。 央行金融机构评级:大型银行风险较低,部分城农商行为高风险银行 ...

A股上市银行阵营已连续三年半未有"添丁"，与正在候场的银行相比，IPO"后备役"的辅导表现也值得关注。7月23日，据北京商报记者统计， 目前处于上市辅导阶段的银行有15家，辅导时长从2年多到15年不等，汉口银行更是以15年的辅导时长成为其中的"资深选手"。从辅导报告中 可见，有的银行仍在股权管理难题里打转，有的则卡在房产确权、租赁备案等问题中。面对银行A股IPO的长期断档，分析人士建议，对于长 期处于上市辅导阶段的银行，应采取"两条腿走路"，一方面继续推进整改工作；另一方面积极运用各种工具补充资本。 桂林银行的上市筹备早有铺垫。据媒体报道，该行2015年曾尝试登陆新三板，后时任行长于志才表示"出于战略调整，待条件成熟后直接冲刺 主板"，多年准备后才进入辅导阶段。 除此之外，天津银行、芜湖扬子农商行已长跑近10年。天津银行自2015年8月启动辅导备案，目前虽已完成股份清理确权、房产权属规范等基 础工作，但部分上市所需的外部批复仍未落地，辅导机构正协助其按计划推进监管申报；芜湖扬子农商行则从2015年12月进入辅导阶段，最新 一期报告显示，其第一大股东淮南矿业集团财务有限公司持股比例一度接近20%，超过了《中国银 ...

村镇银行，即按村划分设银行，是我国金融体系的重要一员，然而在21世纪头二十多年，就差不多完成了自己的使命。 笔者梳理发现，一直以来，村镇银行以服务下沉客户为主，然而现在一个确定的事情是：众多村镇银行在当下政策与快速变化市场环境的变化中快速"消 失"。 国家金融监督管理总局官网的公开数据显示，2024年年初至年末，共有超75家村镇银行被合并吸收、超55家村镇银行被收购。 较近的一次合并是，国家金融监督管理总局对天津监管局的正式批复文件，批准了天津银行对蓟州村镇银行的合并。这意味着，有着十数年历史的蓟州村镇 银行正式结束了自己的使命，并停止一切经营活动。 回顾天津市蓟州村镇银行股份有限公司的历史，其于2008年08月14日成立，为天津市首家村镇银行，注册资本金3亿元，由天津银行作为主发起行设立。有 法人股东16家，自然人股东4个，国有企业股权占比63.06%，法定代表人董晓东。 其实，不仅仅是蓟州村镇银行，全国范围内的村镇银行都在不断地消失。 根据国家金融监管总局披露的银行业金融机构法人名单，截至2023年底，村镇银行数量超过1600家，占全部银行业金融机构的比重超过三分之一。 不过，这一两年，有一个很大的转变趋 ...

Group 1 - Tianjin Bank issued a loan of 10 million yuan to Tianjin Yangliuqing Painting Society, a national-level intangible cultural heritage inheritor, to support the development of intangible cultural heritage projects and practitioners [1] - The financing will be used for cultural exchange activities related to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, including the construction of intangible cultural heritage experience scenarios and the upgrading of cultural and creative product systems [1] - This initiative aims to integrate traditional New Year painting art with international summit scenarios, enhancing the cultural heritage of Tianjin and promoting the value chain of "intangible heritage protection - industrial transformation - international dissemination" through financial empowerment [1] Group 2 - Intangible cultural heritage is a treasure of Chinese culture and plays a significant role in promoting high-quality economic and social development [2] - Tianjin Bank is exploring a new financing model of "intangible heritage + inclusive finance," which enhances the cultural depth of inclusive financial services and strengthens the strategic connection between banks and enterprises in promoting cultural city construction [2] - The allocation of credit resources to excellent traditional culture development demonstrates the cultural soft power of modern Tianjin and provides an innovative practice sample for enhancing the international influence of Chinese culture through "finance + intangible heritage" [2]

Core Insights - Tianjin Bank is focusing on the integration of port, industry, and city development, advancing the construction of the Northern International Shipping Core Area to create a new ecosystem for shipping finance that is open, innovative, and efficient [1] Product Matrix Upgrade - The bank is enhancing its product offerings to address industry pain points by integrating smart technology with cross-border finance, particularly through the "Smart Trade Pass" product matrix [2] - The "Tianxing Easy Remittance" product improves cross-border remittance experiences with features like payment pre-verification and real-time tracking, significantly enhancing fund turnover efficiency for port logistics and SMEs [2] - The "Smart Freight Pass" product digitizes the entire process of domestic USD payments for international shipping, reducing processing time to 3 minutes and improving efficiency by over 95%, while also decreasing costs by 70% [2] Strategic Collaboration Deepening - The bank is supporting the upgrade of the port economy through strategic cooperation with state-owned enterprises and has introduced the first "Shipping Themed Bond Basket" in the interbank market to broaden financing channels for port green and smart upgrades [3] - Financing to the port economy and state-owned foreign trade enterprises in Tianjin has increased by 33.31% year-on-year, while financing to shipping logistics enterprises in the region has surged by 172.41% [3] - The bank is enhancing financial support for the "Belt and Road" initiative, exemplified by a strategic cooperation agreement with Huahai Communication Technology Co., Ltd. for cross-border guarantee credit support for submarine cable projects [3] Service Ecosystem Construction - A new comprehensive shipping financial service plan has been launched, providing diversified financial services to support shipping logistics enterprises [4] - The bank has introduced a dedicated shipping wealth management product and developed a multilingual version of its mobile banking app to facilitate the lives of foreign individuals in Tianjin [4] - Future plans include strengthening the financial service ecosystem around "port + industry + city" and enhancing research and technology capabilities to support integrated development and the "Belt and Road" initiative [4]

Core Insights - The third Tianjin International Shipping Industry Expo was held, showcasing Tianjin Bank's innovative achievements and strategic layout in shipping finance [1][4] - Tianjin Bank presented a comprehensive financial service solution for the shipping industry, emphasizing integration of ports, industries, and cities [4][6] Financial Solutions - Tianjin Bank introduced a new comprehensive shipping financial service plan featuring a structure of "one access, dual core drive, and full chain connection," which includes shipping payment settlement, credit financing, and comprehensive services [4] - The bank's promotional area highlighted key themes such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, showcasing its core achievements in various sectors [4] Interactive Experience - The interactive area and service desk attracted significant attention, featuring a VR game focused on shipping finance, a rowing machine promoting low-carbon concepts, and a lottery for added engagement [6] - The reception area provided professional services, including business consultations, convenient card issuance, and precise investment management, enhancing customer experience [6] Strategic Development - Tianjin Bank has deepened strategic cooperation with state-owned enterprises and upgraded its "Smart Trade" product matrix, launching intelligent cross-border financial products [6] - The bank's financing to the port economy and state-owned foreign trade industries in Tianjin increased by 33.31% year-on-year, while financing to local shipping logistics companies surged by 172.41% [6] Future Outlook - Tianjin Bank aims to continuously improve its financial service ecosystem integrating ports, industries, and cities, while enhancing its research and technology capabilities in the shipping finance sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tianjin Bank's promotional activities in Jinan's Huanlian Night Market have successfully stimulated consumer spending, showcasing the bank's commitment to supporting local economic growth and enhancing customer engagement through financial services [1][5]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Tianjin Bank launched the "'Five' Color Dragon Boat Festival · 'Six' Arts Playful Childhood" event in Jinan's Huanlian Night Market, distributing consumption vouchers worth 15 yuan with a discount of 6.1 yuan, applicable to over 80% of the market's merchants [1]. - The event attracted nearly 1,500 customer inquiries and distributed approximately 1,300 vouchers on its first day, leading to 19,700 transactions through the "Smart Merchant Pass" system [1]. Group 2: Financial Services and Impact - Since the introduction of the "Smart Merchant Pass," Tianjin Bank has gained significant traction in the Jinan market, providing comprehensive financial services to small and micro enterprises, as well as individual businesses [3]. - As of the end of April, over 200,000 merchants in Shandong Province have adopted the "Smart Merchant Pass," with total transaction counts exceeding 847 million and transaction amounts surpassing 733 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Commitment to Local Economy - In response to the government's call to boost domestic demand and consumption, Tianjin Bank has actively organized events in popular local shopping areas, enhancing foot traffic and sales for merchants [5]. - The bank's 15th anniversary on May 28 highlights its ongoing dedication to serving the real economy and local citizens, emphasizing its role in promoting inclusive finance [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tianjin Bank has established a pension financial alliance with 10 organizations, marking a significant advancement in pension financial services in Tianjin [1] Group 1: Pension Financial Alliance - The alliance aims to enhance pension financial services, contributing to social harmony and the well-being of citizens [3] - The establishment ceremony was attended by representatives from various governmental and educational institutions, indicating strong institutional support [1] Group 2: Financial Service Development - Tianjin Bank is upgrading its "Golden Autumn Harbor" pension financial service brand, focusing on a "six-special" service system that includes specialized products, services, resources, support, research, and education [3] - The bank emphasizes the integration of research and technology to foster the "silver economy" and enhance pension financial services [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The bank collaborates with various sectors including healthcare, insurance, tourism, smart services, legal consulting, and media to create a comprehensive pension financial product matrix [6] - Partnerships with local health organizations and educational institutions aim to integrate elderly healthcare resources and innovate in elderly tourism and leisure services [6] - A dedicated radio program has been launched to provide financial knowledge and health information tailored for the elderly, enhancing community engagement [6]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of interest rate cuts for large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) has begun, with some products' rates falling below 1% for the first time in recent years, indicating a significant shift in the banking sector's approach to deposit rates [1][9]. Summary by Category Interest Rate Changes - Major banks, including state-owned banks, have reduced the annualized interest rates for 1-month and 3-month large-denomination CDs to 0.9%, marking a historic low [1][3]. - The latest issuance by Bank of China shows a reduction of 25 basis points for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year products, while the 3-year product saw a reduction of 35 basis points [3][10]. - Other banks, such as Industrial and Agricultural Banks, have also lowered their rates to 0.9% for similar products [3][6]. Implications for the Banking Sector - The reduction in deposit rates is seen as a strategy to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, which have been declining [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that lowering deposit rates will help banks stabilize their net interest margins and reduce financing costs for the real economy [10][11]. Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to adjust their expectations regarding investment returns and consider a diversified asset allocation strategy in light of the declining interest rates [1][8][11]. - The trend of decreasing deposit rates is expected to continue, prompting investors to seek alternative investment options such as cash management products, money market funds, and government bonds [11].

Group 1 - The article highlights the phenomenon of "interest rate inversion" among commercial banks, particularly affecting small and medium-sized banks, where longer-term deposit rates are lower than shorter-term rates [1][5] - Tianjin Bank's recent adjustment shows a 5-year deposit rate dropping to 1.75%, which is lower than the 2-year rate of 1.8% and the 3-year rate of 2% [1] - Similar cases are reported from other banks, such as Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank and Shandong Yinan Blue Ocean Village Bank, indicating a widespread trend of lower long-term deposit rates [1] Group 2 - Large time deposits, once seen as high-yield savings tools, are also experiencing rate cuts, with Tianjin Bank's 3-year "Happiness Deposit" rate falling to 2.05% [5] - The trend of rate adjustments reflects banks' strategies to manage interest margin pressures by reducing long-term liabilities [5] - Experts suggest that depositors should reassess their investment strategies, considering alternatives like cash management products, money market funds, or government bonds to balance yield and liquidity [5]