智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据数字水泥网和国家统计局数据统计，预计2024/2025水 泥熟料产能利用率53%/50%，产能严重过剩。经过过去两年时间的政策酝酿和宣导，2026-2027年将迎 来以"超产管控+碳市场"为主导的供给端政策管控，有望带来水泥超产产能和落后产能陆续退出，水泥 供给优化将带来盈利中枢提升。中长期来看，水泥行业供给有望持续优化，建议关注底部水泥资产。 广发证券主要观点如下： 超产管控：目前已有实质性产能出清 2025年9月24日，工信部联合六部门发布《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，明确水泥企业 要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。 根据数字水泥网统计，截至2025年底，全国水泥行业通过置换退出熟料产能合计为1.6亿吨(考虑超产后 估算实际退出约2亿吨)；鉴于2025年版补产能规则公示公告时间延迟至2026/3/31，预计到26Q1末，熟 料产能退出总量预计将达到2亿吨(考虑超产后估算实际退出约2.5亿吨)。即到26Q1末，实际产能有望从 21亿吨降至18亿吨，将带来2026年产能利用率提升。 碳市场：20 ...

Group 1 - The AI + programming sector has significant potential, with rapid commercialization progress observed [1] - DeepSeek is expected to launch its powerful V4 model around mid-February, which will further stimulate market expectations [1] - AI-assisted programming tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot have shown good commercialization results, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] Group 2 - Domestic AI-assisted programming tools have a higher proportion of utilizing local AI large models and offer better cost-performance ratios compared to overseas products [2] - Although domestic tools may lag in functionality compared to Cursor, their lower pricing makes them attractive [2] - Improvements in DeepSeek's V4 model capabilities and reductions in computing costs could accelerate the commercialization of AI large model applications, including AI-assisted programming tools [2] Group 3 - Zhuoyi Information has extensive technical accumulation and product refinement experience in the IDE field, with its SnapDevelop tool enhancing development efficiency by 2-3 times compared to traditional methods [3] - The tool aids enterprises in efficiently building modern applications through low-code and intelligent features [3]

责任编辑：栎树 1月27日，金山云(3896.HK)再度拉升涨超4%，高见7.3港元创逾3个月新高价，并且录得5连升行情，总市值324亿港元。 消息上，广发证券发布研报称，金山云拥有高可见度的强劲需求，小米金山加大AI投入，基础大模型、智能汽车、WPS均 需要大量AI训练和推理算力，非小米客户AI需求亦旺盛。参考可比公司估值，分别给予AI云/非AI云业务6/2倍PS，对应合 理价值10.49港元/股。维持"买入"评级。 另外，在上周举办的金山云年度Tech Talk上，金山云高级副总裁刘涛宣布，智算平台金山云星流已完成从资源管理平台向 一站式AI训推全流程平台的战略升级。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

金山云(3896.HK)再度拉升涨超4%，高见7.3港元创逾3个月新高价，并且录得5连升行情，总市值324亿港元。 消息上，广发证券发布研报称，金山云拥有高可见度的强劲需求，小米金山加大AI投入，基础大模型、智能汽车、WPS均需要大量AI训练和推理算力，非 小米客户AI需求亦旺盛。参考可比公司估值，分别给予AI云/非AI云业务6/2倍PS，对应合理价值10.49港元/股。维持"买入"评级。 另外，在上周举办的金山云年度Tech Talk上，金山云高级副总裁刘涛宣布，智算平台金山云星流已完成从资源管理平台向一站式AI训推全流程平台的战略升 级。(格隆汇) ...

广发证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据英伟达及SemiAnalysis数据，随着GPU架构迭代，单 GPU可配套的HBM与CPU DRAM容量均呈现显著上升趋势。需求端，在不同GPU代际与出货假设下测 算，若VR200出货量达1400万颗，对应DRAM容量需求约14.78EB，AI服务器正成为DRAM需求增长的 最大下游应用。供给端，据TrendForce数据，DRAM行业资本开支预计由2025年的537亿美元增至2026 年的613亿美元，但新增产能集中在2027年及以后释放。 需求端，AI服务器用DRAM为下游最大增量应用环节。根据TrendForce数据，受益于AI服务器部署节奏 加快，预计2026年DRAM需求增速为26%。在不同GPU代际与出货假设下测算，若VR200出货量达1400 万颗，对应DRAM容量需求约14.78EB，AI服务器正成为DRAM需求增长的最大下游应用。 供给端，根据TrendForce数据，DRAM行业资本开支预计由2025年的537亿美元增至2026年的613亿美 元，同比增长约14%，但新增产能集中在2027年及以后释放。具体来看，三星为优先 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio decreased to 6.1% in Q4 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from Q2 2025, with an excess allocation of +2.4 percentage points compared to Wind All A [1] - The proportion of active equity funds holding food and beverage stocks fell to 32.3% in Q4 2025, while passive funds increased to 63.3% [1] - The liquor sector has experienced a four-year adjustment period and is expected to see a "valuation + performance" double bottom [1] Group 2 - In the liquor segment, the fund holding ratio slightly decreased, with a total and active equity holding ratio of 5.1% and 2.9% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points [2] - The excess allocation for liquor funds is at +2.7 percentage points for total and +0.5 percentage points for active equity [2] - The holding ratio for consumer goods increased slightly to 0.97% in Q4 2025, although it remains in a low allocation state [2] Group 3 - The holding ratio for individual liquor stocks generally declined, with Kweichow Moutai remaining the only food and beverage company in the top 20 heavy stocks, dropping from second to fourth place [3] - The holding ratio for Shanxi Fenjiu rose to second place among liquor stocks [3] - Some leading consumer goods companies, such as Yili and Anjiexin Foods, saw a noticeable increase in fund holding ratios and the number of funds holding them in Q4 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The report from GF Securities highlights the increasing importance of AI memory as a foundational capability for context continuity, personalization, and historical information reuse, which is expected to accelerate the deployment of applications like AI Agents [1] Group 1: AI Agent and CPU Demand - The demand for CPUs is expected to increase due to AI Agents driven by three main factors: (1) Amplified application call volume as users can simultaneously engage multiple Agents, leading to higher system requests and increased CPU load [1] (2) Orchestration bottlenecks as the decision-making process involves multiple external tools, which increases CPU utilization [1] (3) Sandbox isolation raises overhead costs, necessitating additional CPU, memory, and storage configurations [1] Group 2: CPU Ratio Trends - According to a report by Semianalysis, the CPU ratio per GPU megawatt (MW) is currently below 10% but is projected to rise to 15% by Q2 2026, indicating a significant increase in CPU demand alongside GPU deployment [2] Group 3: Memory and Interface Chip Opportunities - The demand for memory modules is expected to grow as AI servers shift towards full insertion (2DPC) configurations to meet higher capacity and bandwidth requirements, leading to a doubling of DIMM demand relative to CPU growth [3] - The transition from traditional RDIMM to MRDIMM configurations will require more complex interface chips, which will drive up the average selling price (ASP) of supporting chips, thus expanding the market for memory modules and interface chips [3]

根据公司25Q4及25Q3运营公告，特步主品牌全渠道流水同比持平，环比Q3(低单增长)降速，预计主要 受Q4天气暖和、春节时间晚等因素影响冬装销售；零售折扣为70-75折，环比Q3持平；渠道存货周转为 约4.5个月，环比Q3(4-4.5个月)略有增加，但仍处于健康水平。该行预计电商渠道有望延续25H1趋势， 维持双位数增长；特步儿童在"特步少年"助力儿童运动追高的品牌定位下，推出成长鞋，有望实现较快 增速。 25Q4索康尼流水恢复高增 根据公司25Q4运营公告，索康尼全渠道流水同比增长超过30%，环比Q3(同比增长超过20%)有所提速， 预计主要系公司自Q2对电商渠道进行调整，Q4已初显成效，恢复高增趋势。索康尼定位精英跑者，聚 焦专业产品，持续在高线城市的高端购物中心开设全新旗舰店和概念店，扩大客群、提高店效。特步主 品牌和索康尼在跑步领域的协同效应有望不断加强，进一步提升跑步市场份额。根据公司微信公众号及 其引用的悦跑圈数据，特步与索康尼的集团军效应凸显，2025年国内马拉松大赛全局跑者联合穿着率第 一；在专业影响大众策略引领下，公司2025年跑鞋销量突破2500万双。 广发证券发布研报称，根据特步国际( ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that by 2025, the total electricity consumption in society is expected to increase by 5.0% year-on-year, while the regulated power generation is projected to grow by 2.2% year-on-year, with a significant shift towards renewable energy sources like wind and solar contributing 90.1% of the incremental power generation [1] - The increase in electricity consumption is shifting from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry and urban-rural residents, with the contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residents expected to account for 50.2% of the total increment by 2025 [1] - The report highlights that the growth in power generation is primarily driven by wind and solar energy, with their contributions to total generation increasing significantly, indicating a transition to a cleaner and low-carbon energy structure [1] Group 2 - The annual long-term electricity price agreements are nearing completion, with expectations for stable electricity prices and reduced competition, particularly in regions like North China and Northwest China [2] - Monthly electricity prices in December showed a decline in several provinces, with Jiangsu experiencing an 8-point drop year-on-year, while the overall annual price changes varied across regions [2] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in thermal and hydropower sectors, particularly in companies like JianTou Energy and JingNeng Power, which have shown significant stock price increases [2][3] Group 3 - The acceleration of public utility development is noted, with a focus on high-dividend and market-managed companies in the thermal power sector, such as Huaneng International Power and Huadian International Power [3] - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and Guiguan Power are highlighted for their strong performance and asset injection potential [3] - The report also mentions opportunities in gas and nuclear power sectors, particularly with companies like Jiufeng Energy and China General Nuclear Power [3]

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据特步国际(01368)25年中期报告，公司将于25H2升级零 售战略，进行DTC改革，加快响应消费者需求，提高运营效率，该行预计DTC改革将逐步推进，短期财 务影响较小。预计公司25-27年归母净利润13.62/15.14/16.58亿元，参考可比公司，给予公司26年PE10 倍，对应合理价值6.02港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 广发证券主要观点如下： 25Q4特步主品牌流水同比持平 根据公司25Q4及25Q3运营公告，特步主品牌全渠道流水同比持平，环比Q3(低单增长)降速，预计主要 受Q4天气暖和、春节时间晚等因素影响冬装销售；零售折扣为70-75折，环比Q3持平；渠道存货周转为 约4.5个月，环比Q3(4-4.5个月)略有增加，但仍处于健康水平。该行预计电商渠道有望延续25H1趋势， 维持双位数增长；特步儿童在"特步少年"助力儿童运动追高的品牌定位下，推出成长鞋，有望实现较快 增速。 25Q4索康尼流水恢复高增 根据公司25Q4运营公告，索康尼全渠道流水同比增长超过30%，环比Q3(同比增长超过20%)有所提速， 预计主要系公司自Q2对电商渠道进行调整，Q4已初 ...