Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold jewelry prices among major domestic brands is attributed to a sharp decline in international gold prices, marking a rare and substantial correction after a year of rising prices. Price Movement - On December 30, major gold jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Lao Miao all saw price drops exceeding 40 yuan per gram, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a drop of over 50 yuan per gram [1] - The gold price for major brands on December 30 includes: - Chow Tai Fook: 1363 yuan/gram, down 42 yuan - Chow Sang Sang: 1353 yuan/gram, down 53 yuan - Lao Feng Xiang: 1363 yuan/gram, down 45 yuan - Six Fortune Jewelry: 1361 yuan/gram, down 42 yuan [2][3] Market Influences - The price adjustment in gold jewelry is primarily influenced by a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell over 200 USD in a single day on December 29, reaching a low of 4301.79 USD per ounce, a decline of 4.42% [3] - Other precious metals such as silver and platinum also experienced notable declines during this period [3] Trading Regulations - The rapid increase in precious and industrial metal futures prices has led to heightened volatility risks, prompting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to raise margin requirements for trading metals, effective after the close of trading on the following Monday. Gold futures margin will increase by 10%, silver by approximately 13.6%, and platinum by 23% [3] - This increase in margin requirements is expected to significantly raise the cost of speculative trading, leading some investors to liquidate positions before the new rules take effect, resulting in multiple rounds of price declines in international metal futures on December 29 [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the recent price correction is driven by technical and liquidity factors rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term outlook for precious metals. Despite the short-term market sentiment being under pressure, the bullish drivers for gold remain intact [4] - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to 5000 USD per ounce, with an expectation that prices will retreat to 4800 USD per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than previous forecasts [4]

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4,340.8 per ounce, while international palladium is at $1,608.4 per ounce, and international silver is at $72.28 per ounce. The domestic gold price is at ¥992.9 per gram [1] - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Lao Feng Xiang at the highest price of ¥1,408 per gram and China Gold at the lowest price of ¥1,312 per gram. Other notable prices include Chow Tai Fook at ¥1,405, Chow Sang Sang at ¥1,406, and Liufuk Jewelry at ¥1,405 per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in domestic gold jewelry prices and analyzes the potential for a continued bull market in gold for 2026, influenced by various economic factors and investor behavior [1][3]. Price Comparison - As of December 30, 2025, several gold jewelry brands reported a notable price drop for domestic 24K gold jewelry, with Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook both priced at 1363 CNY per gram, while Lao Miao Gold was at 1359 CNY per gram, and Chow Sang Sang at 1353 CNY per gram. Liufu Jewelry maintained a price of 1403 CNY per gram [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The international gold price has seen fluctuations, dropping from a previous high of 4550 USD to around 4350 USD. The article raises the question of whether the gold bull market can continue into 2026 [2][3]. Support for Gold Market - Key factors supporting the gold market include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with three cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025 and an anticipated 2-3 cuts in 2026. Additionally, global central bank gold purchases are expanding beyond geopolitical nations, with the share of dollar assets in global reserves decreasing from 72% to 56%, while gold reserves have increased to 25% [3]. Investor Behavior - Gold investment returns and capital inflows are positively correlated, with significant demand for gold observed in 2025, totaling 551.5 tons, 477.5 tons, and 537.2 tons in the first three quarters, respectively. Gold ETF and derivatives investments also showed strong performance, with figures of 226.6 tons, 170.5 tons, and 221.7 tons, all higher than the previous year. Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption compared to the previous year, quarterly consumption remains high at nearly 400 tons [3]. Potential Risks - Possible negative factors for gold in 2026 include easing inflation pressures in the U.S., which historically led to declines in gold prices during periods of high inflation retreat. Additionally, liquidity pressures could prompt central banks to sell gold, as seen during the 1997 Asian financial crisis when global central banks sold gold, leading to significant price drops [4].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have shown a downward trend, with mainstream market prices falling to the range of 1403-1408 yuan per gram, a decrease from recent highs [1] - Major brands' gold prices are as follows: Lao Miao at 1403 yuan, Liu Fu at 1403 yuan, and Zhou Da Fu at 1405 yuan, all reflecting a decline [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have also decreased, with Zhou Da Fu's platinum price dropping by 29 yuan per gram to 950 yuan [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have increased, with the following reference prices: 1001.40 yuan per gram for gold, 977.50 yuan for Cai Zi gold, and 967.20 yuan for Zhou Sheng Sheng gold [2] - The price differences among various brands for gold recycling are significant [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - Last Friday, spot gold reached a record high of 4549.57 USD per ounce, closing at 4533.34 USD, up 1.19% [4] - Current spot gold shows a downward trend, reported at 4514.55 USD per ounce, down 0.39% [4] - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [4] - Market sentiments have slightly eased following a meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, impacting gold prices negatively [4] - Short-term gold prices may experience downward pressure due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions, although overall prices are expected to remain high [4]

短期来看，公司作为行业龙头，能够凭借规范的采购渠道和强大的品牌议价能力传导成本压力，减低黄 金增值税扰动；中长期看，国际化进程加速，公司计划继续拓展大洋洲、加拿大及中东等新市场，为公 司品牌转型打造第二增长曲线。该行预计周大福2026至2028年可分别实现归母净利润75.7亿、86.1亿、 97.3亿元，分别对应15.1倍、13.3倍、11.8倍市盈率，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 东北证券发表研报指，周大福2026财年上半年业绩展现稳健复苏，营业额达389.86亿港元，与去年同期 基本持平；受益于费用率的改善，经营溢利实现按年增长0.7%至68.23亿港元，经营溢利率达17.5%，创 近五年新高；计提黄金借贷合约亏损31.43亿港元后，归母净利润25.34亿港元，按年基本持平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Northeast Securities indicates that Chow Tai Fook (01929), as an industry leader, is well-positioned to mitigate cost pressures through its established procurement channels and strong brand pricing power. The company is accelerating its international expansion into new markets such as Oceania, Canada, and the Middle East, aiming to create a second growth curve for brand transformation. The projected net profits for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 are expected to be 75.7 billion, 86.1 billion, and 97.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.3, and 11.8. The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of FY26, the company demonstrated a steady recovery with revenue reaching 38.986 billion HKD, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. Operating profit increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.823 billion HKD, achieving an operating profit margin of 17.5%, the highest in nearly five years. After accounting for a loss of 3.143 billion HKD from gold loan contracts, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.534 billion HKD, essentially flat year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Product Structure and Growth Drivers - In FY26 H1, revenue from priced jewelry grew by 9.3% year-on-year to 11.39 billion HKD, accounting for 29% of total revenue, which is a 3% increase year-on-year, effectively supporting overall gross margin levels. Same-store sales for priced jewelry and gold jewelry in Q1/Q2 were +0.4%/+16.6% and -2.7%/+7.3%, respectively. Notable product series such as "Chuanfu," "Chuanxi," and "Forbidden City" achieved total sales of 3.4 billion HKD, marking a significant increase of 47.8%. The introduction of high-value new products like "Hemei Dongfang" has also been successful [2]. Group 3: Store Network and Channel Optimization - As of the end of FY26 H1, there were 5,663 retail points in mainland China. Benefiting from product structure optimization and rising gold prices, same-store sales grew by 2.6% during the period. Direct stores generated approximately 10.24 billion HKD in revenue, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, accounting for 31.8% of total revenue in mainland China, up 4.5% year-on-year. The number of direct stores decreased by 16, with same-store sales in Q1/Q2 at -3.3%/+7.6%. Franchise stores generated about 21.96 billion HKD, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, accounting for 68.2% of total revenue, down 4.5% year-on-year. The number of franchise stores decreased by 595, with same-store sales in Q1/Q2 at 0%/+8.6%. Online channels maintained strong growth, with e-commerce retail value in mainland China increasing by 27.6% year-on-year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Northeast Securities indicates that Chow Tai Fook (01929), as an industry leader, is expected to mitigate cost pressures through its strong brand bargaining power and standardized procurement channels, while also accelerating its international expansion into new markets such as Oceania, Canada, and the Middle East, creating a second growth curve for brand transformation. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 75.7 billion, 86.1 billion, and 97.3 billion yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, corresponding to PE ratios of 15.1, 13.3, and 11.8 respectively, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of FY26 (ending September 30, 2025), the company demonstrated a stable recovery with revenue reaching 38.986 billion HKD, remaining flat year-on-year; operating profit increased by 0.7% to 6.823 billion HKD, achieving an operating profit margin of 17.5%, the highest in nearly five years; after accounting for a loss of 3.143 billion HKD from gold loan contracts, net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.534 billion HKD, also flat year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Product Structure and Growth Drivers - In FY26H1, revenue from priced jewelry grew by 9.3% to 11.39 billion HKD, accounting for 29% of total revenue, which supported overall gross margin levels; same-store sales for priced jewelry and gold jewelry in Q1/Q2 were +0.4%/+16.6% and -2.7%/+7.3% respectively [3] - Iconic product series such as "Chuanfu," "Chuanxi," and "Palace Museum" achieved total sales of 3.4 billion HKD, a significant increase of 47.8%, while high-value new products like "Hemei Dongfang" expanded successfully; collaborations with well-known IPs like "Black Myth: Wukong" and the NBA attracted younger customers, injecting new vitality into the brand [3]. Group 3: Store Network and Channel Optimization - As of the end of FY26H1, there were 5,663 retail points in mainland China, with same-store sales growing by 2.6% due to product structure optimization and rising gold prices; direct stores generated approximately 10.24 billion HKD in revenue, an increase of 8.4%, accounting for 31.8% of total revenue in mainland China, with a same-store sales performance of -3.3%/+7.6% for Q1/Q2; franchise stores reported revenue of about 21.96 billion HKD, a decrease of 5.5%, making up 68.2% of total revenue, with a same-store sales performance of 0%/+8.6% for Q1/Q2; online channels maintained strong growth, with e-commerce retail value in mainland China increasing by 27.6% year-on-year [4].

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4531.8 per ounce, while international palladium is at $1923.4 per ounce, and international silver is at $79.13 per ounce [1] - The domestic gold price is reported at ¥1016.5 per gram [1] Group 2 - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Lao Miao Gold at ¥1417 per gram as the highest and China Gold at ¥1312 per gram as the lowest [1] - Other notable prices include Chow Tai Fook at ¥1413 per gram, Chow Sang Sang at ¥1412 per gram, and Liufuk Jewelry at ¥1413 per gram [1] - Additional prices from other retailers include Xie Rui Lin at ¥1413 per gram, Jin Zhi Zun at ¥1413 per gram, Chao Hong Ji at ¥1413 per gram, Cai Bai Jewelry at ¥1372 per gram, Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1408 per gram, and Zhou Liu Fu at ¥1398 per gram [1]

12月28日消息，近日，周大福一款名为"牛马"的方圆牌黄金吊坠被消费者质疑"阴阳打工人"。天猫周大 福旗舰店可查询到该款吊坠链接，页面显示，2.15克黄金吊坠售价3186元，工费360元。该款产品目前 显示已售罄。 天猫周大福旗舰店客服表示，这款吊坠暂时没有库存，仓库是不定期补货，可以填写心愿工单，留下信 息。客服人员称，这款吊坠门店不一定是有售卖，周大福每家店铺的铺货款式及库存均会存在一定差 异，部分款式在门店是买不到的。 在周大福官方商城，该款吊坠也处于预售状态，价格3044.7元起，需交预定金200元。官方商城客服也 表示，目前该款暂时无库存，尾款可在2026年1月15日10点到1月19日12点之间支付，支付尾款后，进入 发货流程。官方商城客服确认，该款吊坠是线上专供，门店暂时没有。 该吊坠的一面是一个牛与马的汉字，另一面是拼音"jia"。官方商城客服人员称，该吊坠的寓意是不怕困 难，好运jia倍，有着"愿生活中都能好运常伴"的祝福。 对于吊坠汉字部分应该怎么读，上述客服表示，暂时没有数据。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 12月28日消息，近日，周大福一款名为"牛马"的方圆牌黄金吊坠被消费者质疑"阴阳打工人"。天猫 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's "Bull and Horse" gold pendant has sparked controversy on social media, with mixed reactions from consumers regarding its design and branding [1]. Group 1: Product Controversy - The pendant has been criticized by some consumers who feel that the branding is inappropriate, while others find it amusing [1][3][6]. - The product is still available for sale on Chow Tai Fook's Tmall flagship store, priced at ¥3115.35 [11]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook has raised prices for its gold products three times this year, with the latest increase occurring on December 19, where some items saw price hikes of 4% to 16% [15][19]. - The current price for gold jewelry has surpassed ¥1400 per gram, influenced by rising international gold prices and new taxation policies [15][19]. - Previous price adjustments occurred in March and late October, with increases ranging from 10% to 20% and 12% to 18%, respectively [19].