Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) has shown significant market activity, with a recent increase of 3.38% and a trading volume of 170 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) reached a new high in both scale and shares since its inception as of October 31 [1] - The ETF has experienced net inflows for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 18.9 million yuan [1] - The index it tracks, the National Certificate Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, rose by 3.67%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Senhwa Biosciences (up 10.11%) and Kanglongda (up 8.80%) [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Insights - The ongoing negotiations for the National Medical Insurance drug list are complemented by a new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, aimed at providing new payment channels for high-value innovative drugs [1] - The CAR-T cell drug, Rukiyou Lunsai injection from WuXi AppTec, is making progress in negotiations to be included in the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, with a listed price of 1.29 million yuan per injection [1] - Open Source Securities notes that the current innovative drugs included in both medical insurance and commercial insurance are in the early stages of volume growth, with potential for rapid revenue increases as policies continue to support innovative drugs [2] Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - According to Guotou Securities, the proportion of all funds heavily invested in Biotech innovative drug companies has increased to 27.53%, reflecting a 2.61 percentage point rise, indicating growing institutional interest in the innovative drug sector [2] - The increasing allocation of funds to the innovative drug sector suggests a strong market recognition of its long-term development potential [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on Connora with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 92.67 [1] - The company's first commercial product, Stapokibart, has been approved in mainland China for atopic dermatitis, chronic sinusitis, and seasonal allergic rhinitis [1] - Goldman Sachs believes Stapokibart's first-mover advantage in these areas will establish a valuation foundation, with peak sales expected to exceed HKD 5 billion by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The firm anticipates greater growth momentum from CM512, which is expected to be a superior option for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [1] - Projected global sales for CM512 are expected to reach USD 3.3 billion before the point of sale (PoS) stage and USD 694 million after by 2035 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's innovative pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index rising by 1.40% as of November 3, 2025, driven by positive developments in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The index's performance is highlighted by significant gains in constituent stocks, including 康诺亚-B (02162) up 5.73%, 先声药业 (02096) up 5.66%, and 康方生物 (09926) up 5.29% [1]. - Other stocks such as 一脉阳光 (02522) and 平安好医生 (01833) also experienced upward movement, indicating a broader positive trend in the sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The introduction of the "Commercial Insurance Innovative Drug Directory" marks a significant policy shift, as it is the first time this mechanism has been officially included in the national discussions on medical insurance [1]. - Pfizer has initiated two global Phase III clinical trials for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 (PF-08634404), targeting first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer, which is expected to enhance the sector's growth prospects [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Research indicates that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is entering a new upward cycle, with accelerated overseas orders and strong upward momentum, particularly benefiting biopharmaceutical companies with robust international capabilities [1].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug sector experienced a significant rebound on November 3, with the innovative drug ETF (520880) showing a volatility of over 4.4% and a trading volume exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - Key stocks such as Kangfang Biotech, Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, and Kangnuo Ya-B saw increases of nearly 6%, while other companies like Yuanda Pharmaceutical and Rongchang Biotech also experienced substantial gains [1] - The National Medical Insurance negotiation, which began on October 30, is expected to conclude with results announced in early December, introducing a new "commercial insurance innovative drug catalog" mechanism for the first time [1] Group 2 - Fund manager Feng Chen indicated that the innovative drug market could see a resurgence, suggesting that now may be a high-probability period for medium to long-term investments in innovative drugs [2] - The recent meeting between US and Chinese leaders has alleviated previous risks that suppressed the sector's performance, potentially allowing previously withdrawn funds to re-enter the market [2] - The current earnings season has shown strong performance from companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine, boosting confidence in the sector [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) passively tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index, which focuses entirely on innovative drug R&D companies, with over 70% of its holdings in large-cap innovative drug leaders [3] - As of the end of September, the index has seen a year-to-date increase of 108.14%, outperforming other innovative drug indices [3] - The ETF has a fund size of 1.806 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 493 million yuan, making it the largest and most liquid ETF tracking this index [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds for various companies in the Hong Kong stock market, indicating significant movements in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Net Inflow Summary - The top three companies with the highest net inflow of funds are Huahong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) with 388 million, Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) with 320 million, and Qingdao Beer (青岛啤酒股份) with 305 million [1][2] - The net inflow percentages for these companies are 8.15%, 7.92%, and 58.54% respectively, indicating strong investor interest, particularly in Qingdao Beer [2][3] Net Outflow Summary - The companies with the highest net outflow of funds include Alibaba-W (阿里巴巴-W) with -523 million, Southern Hang Seng Technology (南方恒生科技) with -429 million, and Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股) with -355 million [1][2] - The net outflow percentages for these companies are -3.89%, -4.86%, and -3.36% respectively, reflecting a negative sentiment among investors towards these stocks [2][3] Net Inflow Ratio Summary - The companies with the highest net inflow ratios are Shenzhen Expressway (深圳高速公路股份) at 68.48%, Anhui Wanshan Expressway (安徽皖通高速公路) at 64.22%, and Legend Holdings (联想控股) at 59.98% [1][3] - These ratios suggest a strong demand for shares in these companies relative to their trading volume [3] Net Outflow Ratio Summary - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios are Huadian International Power (华电国际电力股份) at -62.31%, CIMC Enric (中集安瑞科) at -54.98%, and Connoisseur-B (康诺亚-B) at -52.78% [1][3] - These figures indicate significant selling pressure and a lack of confidence among investors in these stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices despite market conditions, driven by new policies and strong quarterly performances from several pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Innovent Biologics (01801) saw an increase of 8.12%, reaching HKD 87.25 [1] - Three-Sixty Biopharma (01530) rose by 11.42%, trading at HKD 30.84 [1] - Kelun-Biotech (06990) increased by 6.97%, priced at HKD 451 [1] - Connaissance-B (02162) gained 4.71%, with a price of HKD 60.05 [1] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) rose by 4.56%, trading at HKD 35.76 [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The 2025 National Medical Insurance negotiation commenced on October 30, introducing a "commercial insurance innovative drug catalog" mechanism for the first time [1] - This year's negotiations continue the regular adjustment mechanism of the medical insurance catalog [1] Group 3: Market Activity - As of October 21, 2023, there have been 115 licensing agreements for innovative drugs in China, totaling USD 101.24 billion, significantly surpassing the total of USD 51.9 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 4: Company Performance - Hengrui Medicine reported a net profit of CNY 5.751 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [1] - Innovent Biologics achieved total product revenue exceeding CNY 3.3 billion in Q3, maintaining a robust year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [1] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a potential shift in market focus towards high-growth sectors supported by performance [1] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with Q3 performance likely to exceed expectations, as well as sectors such as CXO, upstream life sciences, medical device recovery, and innovative drugs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant business development (BD) agreements exceeding $10 billion, the stock prices of innovative pharmaceutical companies remain sluggish, indicating a disconnect between positive news and market performance [2][3]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug index has declined from over 1240 points on October 9 to 1110 points, reflecting a drop of approximately 10.5% [3]. - Over the past month, the innovative drug sector has seen a 16% decline from a peak of 1326 points on September 8 [3][4]. - Notable declines in stock prices include over 21% for Innovent Biologics and over 19% for CanSino Biologics in the last 20 trading days [3]. Business Development Agreements - Recent BD agreements include a $11.4 billion collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which failed to boost market confidence, with Innovent's stock dropping by 1.96% on the announcement day [3][4]. - The trend of BD agreements previously led to significant stock price increases, with 17 innovative drug companies reaching new highs between July and September [4]. Financial Performance - Most innovative drug companies have reported revenue growth, but profitability remains a concern, with only four out of eleven companies showing positive net profits [6][10]. - For instance, CanSino Biologics reported a staggering 812.1% increase in revenue, while others like BeiGene and Innovent also showed substantial growth [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The innovative drug sector is characterized by high failure rates, with nearly half of the companies that went public on NASDAQ between 2004 and 2018 no longer in operation [10]. - The long-term nature and uncertainty of BD projects contribute to market hesitance, as evidenced by a 40% termination rate of license-out agreements [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent stock price adjustments may be a correction from overly optimistic BD expectations, with a potential for recovery as new catalysts emerge [12][13]. - The competitive advantage of domestic assets being "value for money" is highlighted, with ongoing BD transactions expected to continue despite market fluctuations [13].

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant business development (BD) agreements exceeding $10 billion, the stock prices of innovative pharmaceutical companies remain sluggish, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug index has declined from over 1240 points on October 9 to 1110 points, reflecting a drop of approximately 10.5% [1][2]. - Notable companies like 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) have seen their stock prices fall despite announcing major collaborations, with 信达生物's stock dropping 1.96% to 85.2 HKD per share on October 22 [2]. - Over the past month, the innovative drug sector has experienced a 16% decline from a peak of 1326 points on September 8, with several companies like 诺诚健华 (Nocera) and 康诺亚-B (CanSino) seeing stock drops exceeding 19% [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Many innovative drug companies have reported revenue growth, yet profitability remains a concern, with only four out of the listed companies achieving positive net profits [6][7]. - 康诺亚-B reported a staggering 812.1% year-on-year revenue increase, while other companies like 诺诚健华 and 信达生物 also showed significant revenue growth of over 40% [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The innovative drug sector is characterized by high competition and a high rate of project failure, with a significant percentage of BD agreements facing termination [8]. - The long-term outlook for the Chinese innovative drug industry remains positive, driven by an increase in BD transactions, although the market is becoming increasingly competitive [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent stock price adjustments may be a result of previously overly optimistic expectations regarding BD agreements, and the market may be entering a phase of stabilization [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant performance of domestic new drugs showcased at the ESMO 2025 conference, with several companies presenting excellent clinical data [3][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of academic conferences as key catalysts for the innovative drug sector, particularly mentioning ESMO, ASCO, and WCLC as critical events for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [20] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were: - 欧康维视 (+8.87%) - 君圣泰 (+8.21%) - 诺思兰德 (+7.07%) - 友芝友 (+4.42%) - 海创药业 (+3.73%) - The top five losers were: - 康宁杰瑞 (-17.72%) - 北海康成 (-14.42%) - 创胜集团 (-14.29%) - 宜明昂科 (-13.40%) - 来凯医药 (-12.40%) [16][17] Recommended Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with potential catalysts, including: 1. Products with high overseas volume certainty after MNC certification: - PD-1 upgraded product: 三生制药 - GLP-1 asset: 联邦制药 - ADC assets: 科伦博泰, 百利天恒 2. Potential heavyweights for overseas MNC authorization: - PD-1 upgraded products: 康方生物, 信达生物 - Breakthroughs in autoimmune fields: 益方生物, 中国抗体 - Innovative target ADC: 复宏汉霖, 石药集团 3. Stocks likely to benefit from medical insurance negotiations and commercial insurance innovative drug directories: - Beneficiaries of medical insurance directory: 恒瑞医药, 康诺亚, 迈威生物, 智翔金泰, 海创药业 - Beneficiaries of commercial insurance innovative drug directory: 药明巨诺, 科济药业 [2][20] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, four new drug or new indication applications were approved, and five new drug or new indication applications were accepted in the domestic market [9] - A total of 46 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 31 new drug clinical applications were accepted [10] Key Domestic Market Events - 信达生物 announced a global strategic partnership with Takeda to accelerate the development of new generation tumor immunotherapy and antibody-drug conjugate therapies [11] - 康宁杰瑞 and 石药集团 announced that their HER2 bispecific antibody-drug conjugate JSKN003 received breakthrough therapy designation from the CDE [11] - 和黄医药 presented clinical data for HMPL-A251 at the AACR-NCI-EORTC conference [11] Key Overseas Market Events - 罗氏 received FDA approval for Gazyva/Gazyvaro for the treatment of active lupus nephritis in adult patients [12] - Electra Therapeutics announced that its therapy ELA026 received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and PRIME qualification from the EMA [12] - 安斯泰来 announced that the FDA accepted its supplemental biologics license application for the antibody-drug conjugate Padcev in combination with Keytruda [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has been experiencing a continuous decline, with significant drops in stock prices for several companies as of October 14. Group 1: Stock Performance - Vya Bio (01873.HK) has seen a decline of 7.53%, trading at 2.58 HKD [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672.HK) has dropped by 7.09%, with a current price of 9.17 HKD [2] - Connexa-B (02162.HK) has decreased by 5.74%, now priced at 64 HKD [2]