投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-22 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

智通财经记者 | 王妤涵 智通财经编辑 | 李慎 万科迎来本轮债务重组博弈中的关键突破。 1月21日，万科披露旗下一笔余额11亿元的公司债展期方案以92.11%的高同意率获得通过，这也是万科 自2025年底陷入债券展期困境以来，首个成功落地的展期方案。 该笔债券为"21万科02"，是万科在2021年1月22日发行的公司债，主承销商为中信证券，债券余额为11 亿元，票面利率为3.98%，为七年期债券，附有第五年末发行人赎回选择权及投资人回售选择权。 从资本市场反应来看，市场情绪得到了明显修复。当日午后，万科A股价快速拉升，涨幅一度超4.5%， 截止收盘报5.01元；万科企业涨幅亦突破6%，最终收盘报3.68港元。 与此同时，万科多只境内债券价格同步回暖，此前跌至面值25%左右的"21万科04""21万科06"等债券， 报价也均出现不同程度回升。 "此次议案提供了多种方案满足了不同债券持有人诉求。既有现金兑付又有增信担保，措施切实可行， 体现出了诚意，所以债权人同意比例高。"谈及此次展期成功的原因，中指研究院企业研究总监刘水在 接受智通财经采访时指出。 具体来看展期方案，据万科方面披露，这次会议审议了五个议案，最 ...

万科一笔余额11亿元的"21万科02"债券展期事宜取得重要进展。1月21日早间，万科发布"21万科 02"2026年第一次债券持有人会议决议公告，"议案四"即"关于调整'21万科02'回售部分债券本息兑付安 排、增加固定兑付安排、提供增信措施的议案"获得高票通过。同时，万科还公告该债券将在1月22日付 息。或受此消息提振，万科A股价在1月21日交易时段一度大涨逾6%，收盘报每股5.01元，涨幅4.59%。 不过，万科另外两只债券本息兑付尚未与债权人达成一致。市场人士认为，由于相关议案内容比较类 似，"21万科02"的表决也为1月21日召开的另外两只债券的持有人会议提供借鉴。 表决结果释放积极信 号 1月21日早间，万科发布了"21万科02"债券持有人会议决议公告。其中，强调增加固定兑付安排的"议 案四"获得表决通过。 公开信息显示，"21万科02"债券余额11亿元，当前票面利率3.98%，期限为7年 期，附第5年末发行人赎回选择权、调整票面利率选择权、投资者回售选择权。 "21万科02"2026年第一 次债券持有人会议决议公告显示，五项议案中"议案一"和"议案四"获得通过。"议案一"主要涉及豁免相 关程序，优 ...

Group 1 - Apple is accelerating its AI strategy by developing an AI wearable device called "Pin" and plans to significantly revamp Siri into its first AI chatbot, codenamed "Campos" [2] - Intel has secured a substantial contract with the U.S. military for chip supply under the SHIELD project, with a maximum limit of $151 billion, boosting expectations for its defense electronics business [2] - TSMC is facing production bottlenecks in its advanced 3nm process due to surging AI demand, with all capacity booked until 2027, highlighting strong demand in the global semiconductor supply chain [2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China to revive the AI chip market, emphasizing that AI represents a "platform shift" requiring trillions in infrastructure investment, with global AI venture capital expected to exceed $100 billion by 2025 [2] Group 2 - Alibaba's Qianwen series model downloads have surpassed 1 billion, making it the most popular open-source AI model globally, reinforcing the company's technological leadership in AI [4] - Vanke's bond extension proposal for "21 Vanke 02" has been approved, marking the company's first successful bond extension, with a scale of 1.1 billion yuan [4] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 7.6 billion to 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 due to industry adjustments and project sales underperformance, focusing on core areas for business transformation [4] - Cangge Mining has voluntarily reduced its potassium chloride production capacity from 2 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons based on resource conditions, without affecting existing production and sales plans [4] Group 3 - AI startup Anthropic PBC is raising at least $1 billion from investors, with annual revenue run rate doubling since last summer and projected to exceed $9 billion by the end of 2025 [6] - Meta's Super Intelligence Lab delivered its first batch of key AI models in January, with plans to focus on consumer products over the next two years [6] - Microsoft has resolved access issues with its 365 services and has introduced a basic subscription version of Microsoft 365 in China for an annual fee of 150 yuan [6] - Tesla clarified that there are no plans for layoffs or production cuts at its Berlin factory, while its Robotaxi fleet has reached 200 vehicles [6] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics is diversifying its HBM supply chain and has reported Q4 sales of 1.29 trillion won, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with operating profit rising 62% [10] - Toyota anticipates a cost burden increase of 5 trillion yen over 4.5 years and plans to raise prices for some suppliers while sharing chip data among Japanese automakers [10] - SK Hynix is projected to achieve record revenue and profit by Q4 2025, with plans to distribute a record year-end bonus of 640,000 yuan per employee [10] - LG Electronics is testing sodium-ion battery production at its Nanjing factory and has launched AI air conditioning products overseas [10] Group 5 - Volkswagen Group expects a net cash flow of 6 billion euros in the automotive sector for FY2025, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by lower operating capital and capital expenditures [13] - Rio Tinto anticipates an 11% increase in copper production to 883,000 tons by 2025, with a strong rebound in Q4 iron ore production [13] - Mercedes-Benz will unveil the 2026 S-Class on January 29, featuring heated seat belts to enhance low-temperature range and safety [13] - ASML's target price has been raised by JPMorgan from 587 euros to 800 euros, reflecting optimistic market expectations for semiconductor equipment demand [13]

◎记者 张良 孙忠 首先，固定兑付安排，存在小额兑付。发行人将于2026年1月30日以其在本次会议债权登记日已申报回 售的债券剩余本金为限实施不超过10万元的兑付（即"固定兑付安排"）。其次，关于回售部分债券兑付 的安排。回售部分债券本金的40%将于2026年1月30日兑付，剩余60%展期1年，兑付日为2027年1月22 日。此外，还将提供增信措施。万科承诺将为本期债券未付本息提供发行人持有的对项目公司（武汉万 云房地产有限公司、西咸新区科筑置业有限公司）应收款质押作为增信担保措施。 关于回售部分债券付息的安排，2026年1月22日按期支付本期债券未申报回售部分在2025年1月22日至 2026年1月21日计息期间的利息，已申报回售部分债券的利息将在议案表决通过后2个交易日内支付，展 期部分在展期一年期间的利息于2027年1月22日随本金一起兑付。 万科一笔余额11亿元的"21万科02"债券展期事宜取得重要进展。1月21日早间，万科发布"21万科 02"2026年第一次债券持有人会议决议公告，"议案四"即"关于调整'21万科02'回售部分债券本息兑付安 排、增加固定兑付安排、提供增信措施的议案"获得高票通过。 ...

万科企业股份有限公司（以下简称"万科"）11亿元债券展期议案获得持有人会议表决通过。 1月21日，万科披露关于2021年面向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券（第一期）（品种二） （以下简称"21万科02"）2026年第一次债券持有人会议决议的公告。 公告显示，《议案一：关于豁免本次会议召开相关程序要求的议案》和《议案四：关于调整"21万科 02"回售部分债券本息兑付安排、增加固定兑付安排、提供增信措施的议案》（以下简称《议案四》） 分别获得92.36%和92.11%表决权同意，两项议案获得通过。 Wind数据显示，1月21日在交易所上市的万科债普遍上涨，"21万科06"涨超6%，"21万科04"涨超 3%，"22万科06"涨超2%。 根据此前万科披露的《议案四》，其回售部分债券本息兑付安排主要指，回售部分债券本金的40%于 2026年1月30日兑付，并注销兑付本金对应的债券；剩余60%本金展期1年，兑付日为2027年1月22日， 剩余60%本金在2026年1月22日至2027年1月21日计息期间的利息于2027年1月22日随本金一起兑付。相 当于40%本金先行兑付，60%本金展期一年。 其固定兑付安排主 ...

1月21日，"21万科02"展期议案获得债券持有人会议审议通过，这是万科首笔完成展期的债券，债券规 模11亿元。同样寻求展期的"22万科MTN004"和"22万科MTN005"持有人会议也已经召开，两只债券同 样包括与"21万科02"类似的展期方案。 根据前期披露的议案，本次获得审议通过的展期议案包括固定兑付安排、回售部分债券兑付以及付息、 提供增信措施。其中固定兑付金额为不超过10万元，回售部分债券本金、利息的40%于1月30日兑付， 剩余60%展期1年，另提供万科持有的对项目公司武汉万云房地产有限公司、西咸新区科筑置业有限公 司的应收款质押作为增信担保措施。 议案明确，上述调整不触发发行人对本期债券违约，不触发本期债券相关违约责任。 刘水分析称，足够的有效资产将是未来万科债券展期的重要考验。债券展期，目前情况下很重要的要有 增信担保措施，否则债权人很难同意展期。"近几年，全国房地产价格深度下跌，很多项目出现资不抵 债，或者难有较好的收益。万科能否提供足够多的有效资产作为增信担保，将是未来债券展期过程中的 重要考验。"刘水表示。 自去年底"22万科MTN004"被曝光寻求展期以来，"22万科MTN005"" ...

作者 | 周智宇 编辑 | 张晓玲 1月21日，万科迎来了自流动性博弈加剧以来一个标志性的时刻。 华尔街见闻了解到，"21万科02"展期议案以超过92%的赞成票获通过。这家处于风暴中心的地产龙头， 在公开债务的博弈中拿到了一个喘息的窗口，暂时避免了实质性违约。也为万科接下来两笔中票谈判提 供了可参照的样本。 过去数日，万科的股、债市场在焦虑中反复震荡。随着今日方案最终落地，股价随之涨超4.59%，境内 债也普遍上涨。 一名外资投行地产分析师认为，此次"21万科02"能拿到九成以上的赞成票，核心在于其经历了过去两个 月的博弈后，对方案进行了调整，回应了投资者的诉求。 "21万科02"能够顺利过关，但万科仍有一堵厚重的"债务墙"需要跨越。 2026年是万科境内债的兑付高峰期，全年到期或行权的本金规模超过120亿元。并且在接下来的一周， 未能达成共识的两笔中票（合计57亿元）也需要获得投资者认可，才能顺利避免短期公开债违约。 与今日通过的公司债不同，中票（MTN）的持有人大多是风控极其严苛的银行与大型机构。这些机构 的决策逻辑更为刚性。今日11亿的成功，能否在57亿的机构博弈中被成功复制，将直接决定万科在2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 real estate market is expected to continue its adjustment trend, with positive progress in inventory reduction and breakthroughs in the debt of distressed real estate companies [2] Market Adjustment and Inventory Reduction - The new residential property price index shows fluctuations, with first-tier cities experiencing slight volatility and second and third-tier cities showing a downward trend. First-tier cities had a stable but declining trend, with a decrease of -0.4% in November after a slight recovery in July and August [3][4] - The second-hand residential price index has a more significant decline than new residential properties, with first-tier cities seeing increased downward pressure in the second half of the year, maintaining a decline of around -1.0% [6] - The overall real estate market remains in a deep adjustment phase, particularly in eastern regions, while inventory reduction is steadily advancing under policy interventions. New residential sales area decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 11.1% [8] - As of the end of November, the inventory of unsold properties decreased for nine consecutive months, indicating effective supply-side adjustments and a gradual alleviation of inventory pressure [8] Sales Trends and Market Dynamics - The sales rhythm throughout the year showed a pattern of "stability followed by weakness," with significant declines in July and August, indicating traditional seasonal weakness [11] - The demand-side recovery remains fragile, with core eastern cities undergoing deep adjustments and a weak sales performance at year-end suggesting a prolonged bottoming period for the market [11] Real Estate Development Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment continued to face pressure, with a cumulative investment of 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. Residential investment also saw a decline of 15.0% [14] - The total funds available to real estate developers decreased by 11.9%, with significant declines in foreign investment and personal mortgage loans [18] Debt Restructuring Progress - Several companies, including Sunac, Yuzhou, and Country Garden, have made progress in debt restructuring, with various strategies employed to mitigate debt risks. For instance, Sunac's offshore debt restructuring plan was approved, leading to a significant reduction in its debt [21][22] - Innovative debt restructuring models are emerging, such as Rongsheng's proposal to use a combination of cash and asset-backed debt repayment [23] - Vanke faces challenges with its debt extension proposals being rejected, leading to a downgrade in its credit rating, while its major shareholder has provided substantial loans to support liquidity [23]

整体境内外债券价格仍处于不良水平，反映出投资者对其未来偿债能力的持续担忧，今年晚些时候万科 还有更多债务将到期。 近两年来大力支持万科兑付公开市场债务的深圳市地铁集团，在万科第三季度亏损进一步扩大之后，收 紧了对万科的借款条款，万科债务危机此后急转直下。据知情人士此前透露，万科近期收到来自官方指 示，要求公司尽早摸清债务情况并尽快拿出重组方案。 根据此前公告，"22万科MTN004"和"22万科MTN005"展期方案等议案的表决截止日为1月26日。万科此 前发布"21万科02"回售结果显示，逾10亿元债券被持有人执行回售权，接近这只债券全部存续金额。 自万科宣布拟调整对"21万科02"和两期中票的兑付安排以来，其境内外债券有所反弹，旗下两只美元债 每一美元成交价回到20美分上方，此前曾跌至15美分附近，境内部分公司债回到接近40元人民币的水 平。 在万科大幅改进展期条件后，这家困境房企首支债券获得了持有人同意展期，部分本金将延迟一年兑 付。 万科企业股份有限公司在深交所公告称，92.11%的持有人对调整"21万科02"回售部分债券本息兑付安排 的议案投出了赞成票。按照这个方案，回售部分债券本金的40%将于1月 ...