7月13日至 15 日，第十六届奶业大会、奶业20强（D20）论坛暨2025中国奶业展览会在福建省厦门市举行。蒙牛集团作为大会支持单位，深度参与大会 活动系列活动，并分享了作为领军企业的经验与见解，全面助力行业创新破局、加快迎来"第二次呼吸"。 创新破局：多举措共促行业"第二次呼吸" 在13日举办的中国奶业发展战略研讨会上，蒙牛乳业党委副书记，高级执行总裁李鹏程呼吁，面向"十五五"，要通过创新破局，突破极点，加快迎来中 国奶业的"第二次呼吸"：一要打造奶业的"中国芯片"，着力破解"卡脖子"问题。二要将牛奶"吃干榨净"，向精细化深加工转型升级。三要向AI要未来，打造 新质生产力，实现行业革命性变革，四要绿色转型，实现可持续发展。 作为行业龙头，蒙牛率先垂范，以创新为核心驱动，积极引领行业破局突围：为破解上游的"卡脖子"问题，蒙牛通过自主科研攻关，培育出6个国产苜 蓿品种，建成了2座国家级核心育种场；为推动产业链纵深转型，蒙牛全面投产奶油、奶酪、乳铁蛋白、乳清粉等深加工项目；为加快数智化升级，蒙牛在 宁夏建成全球首座液态奶"灯塔工厂"，不断打造灯塔群和智慧牧场；为实现绿色转型，蒙牛坚持全产业链减碳，将200多平方 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On July 14, 22 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 10.67 million shares and an amount of HKD 186 million [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - AIA Group repurchased 2.49 million shares for HKD 171.64 million, with a highest price of HKD 69.95 and a lowest price of HKD 68.25, accumulating HKD 17.69 billion in buybacks for the year [1][2]. - Mengniu Dairy repurchased 200,000 shares for HKD 3.28 million, with a highest price of HKD 16.44 and a lowest price of HKD 16.34, accumulating HKD 213 million in buybacks for the year [1][2]. - Miniso repurchased 56,800 shares for HKD 1.99 million, with a highest price of HKD 35.45 and a lowest price of HKD 34.50, accumulating HKD 296 million in buybacks for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on July 14 was from AIA Group at HKD 171.64 million, followed by Mengniu Dairy at HKD 3.28 million [1][2]. - In terms of buyback volume, the most shares repurchased were by China Electric Power Technology at 4.63 million shares, followed by AIA Group at 2.49 million shares and China Hengyou Group at 920,000 shares [1][2]. Group 3: Additional Buyback Information - PwC's buyback was its first of the year, amounting to HKD 88.20 million [2]. - A detailed table of buybacks includes various companies, their respective buyback shares, amounts, highest and lowest prices, and cumulative buyback amounts for the year [2][3].

7月13日至7月15日，第十六届中国奶业大会在厦门举行。上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司（以下简 称"妙可蓝多"）创始人、CEO柴琇出席并发表主题演讲。在当下中国奶业面临增速放缓，奶源过剩的阶 段性矛盾状态下，更多行业领导、专家学者以及从业人员对奶酪的新发展方向予以更高关注。 7月13日下午，2025年中国奶酪产业发展研讨会举办。本次研讨会由原农业农村部党组成员、中国奶业 协会战略发展工作委员会名誉副主任毕美家主持。他在开场致辞中表示，在中国奶业转型升级向高质量 发展迈进的关键阶段，大力发展奶酪产业具有积极而且重要的战略意义。奶酪产业需要通过技术创新、 产业升级、加强品类教育等措施扩大规模，加速进入大发展的新阶段。 原农业部党组成员、总经济师、中国农产品市场协会会长张玉香在致辞中认为，奶酪是典型的技术密集 型产品，是奶业高质量发展的重要抓手。奶酪产业的发展不仅仅是人民生活水平提高的需求，同样是国 家奶制品产业高质量发展的重要担当。中国奶酪产业要在加大科研攻关力度、完善法规标准体系、讲好 中国奶酪故事三个方面下功夫。 农业农村部畜牧兽医局奶业处处长卫琳阐述了奶酪对解决奶业供需矛盾所发挥的积极作用。她认为，奶 酪 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On July 11, 32 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 25.08 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 315 million [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - AIA Group repurchased 4 million shares for HKD 280 million, with a highest price of HKD 70.60 and a lowest price of HKD 68.25, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to HKD 17.52 billion [1][2]. - Yum China repurchased 16,500 shares for HKD 6.24 million, with a highest price of HKD 381.20 and a lowest price of HKD 374.60, totaling HKD 888 million in buybacks for the year [1][2]. - Wan Ke Yi Lian repurchased 5.14 million shares for HKD 4.27 million, with a highest price of HKD 0.85 and a lowest price of HKD 0.75, accumulating HKD 790.49 million in buybacks for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on July 11 was from AIA Group at HKD 280 million, followed by Yum China at HKD 6.24 million [1][2]. - In terms of share quantity, Wan Ke Yi Lian had the highest buyback volume with 5.14 million shares, followed by China Electric Power and AIA Group with 404,000 shares and 400,000 shares respectively [1][2]. Group 3: Additional Buyback Information - Other notable companies involved in buybacks include China International Marine Containers and Mengniu Dairy, with respective buyback amounts of HKD 4.11 million and HKD 3.28 million [2][3]. - The data indicates a trend of significant buyback activity among Hong Kong-listed companies, reflecting their strategies to enhance shareholder value [1][2].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - A number of companies, including AIA Insurance, Yum China, and Mengniu Dairy, conducted share buybacks on July 11, 2025, with AIA Insurance having the largest buyback amount of 280 million yuan for 4 million shares [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - AIA Insurance (01299) repurchased 4 million shares for 280 million yuan, totaling 124 million shares repurchased this year, representing 1.157% of its total share capital [2]. - Yum China (09987) repurchased 16,500 shares for 6.24 million yuan, with a year-to-date total of 241,690 shares, accounting for 0.650% of its total share capital [2]. - Mengniu Dairy (02319) repurchased 20,000 shares for 3.28 million yuan, with a total of 365,000 shares repurchased this year, representing 0.093% of its total share capital [2]. Group 2: Other Notable Buybacks - China International Marine Containers (02039) repurchased 628,600 shares for 4.11 million yuan, totaling 5.13 million shares repurchased this year, which is 0.170% of its total share capital [2]. - Beike-W (02423) repurchased 643,500 shares for 4 million yuan, with a total of 769,010 shares repurchased this year, representing 0.213% of its total share capital [2]. - Jieli Trading (08017) repurchased 2 million shares for 2.20 million yuan, with a total of 35.99 million shares repurchased this year, accounting for 6.000% of its total share capital [2].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to enhance shareholder value and confidence in its stock performance [2][3]. Share Buyback Details - On July 11, Mengniu Dairy repurchased 200,000 shares at a price range of HKD 16.260 to HKD 16.460, totaling HKD 3.2772 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 16.240 on the same day, reflecting a 2.01% increase, with a total trading volume of HKD 580 million [2]. - Since July 10, the company has conducted buybacks for two consecutive days, accumulating a total of 600,000 shares and a total expenditure of HKD 9.6366 million, with the stock rising 2.78% during this period [2]. Year-to-Date Buyback Activity - Year-to-date, Mengniu Dairy has executed 54 buybacks, acquiring a total of 12.102 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 21 million [3]. - The detailed buyback transactions include various dates, share quantities, and price ranges, showcasing a consistent approach to share repurchase throughout the year [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a paradox where companies are launching new products despite facing significant losses due to declining raw milk prices and overall market challenges. This trend indicates a potential shift towards innovation and self-rescue among dairy brands [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 80% of dairy companies are currently operating at a loss, yet there has been a surge in new product launches, with 17 companies introducing 31 new products in the last two months [6][7]. - The domestic dairy product market is expected to see an increase in new SKU numbers for key categories like ambient milk, low-temperature yogurt, and cheese, indicating a rapid pace of innovation [6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for New Product Launches - The primary reason for the introduction of new products is the poor sales performance of existing products, prompting brands to seek new market segments and consumer groups [10][11]. - The dairy industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected 30% increase in dairy production in 2024, while consumption is only expected to grow by 3% [12]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Strategy - Dairy companies are launching new products at higher price points to maintain profit margins, as many new items exceed the average market prices of 10 yuan per liter for ambient milk and 20 yuan per liter for yogurt [13]. - There is a notable shift towards low-temperature dairy products, which now account for 60% of new launches, reflecting changing consumer preferences for fresher, healthier options [15][16]. Group 4: Target Consumer Segments - The silver-haired population and the trend of "snackification" represent significant opportunities for dairy innovation, addressing health needs and emotional value [17][18]. - The silver-haired demographic, despite being large, has low dairy consumption due to dietary habits and lactose intolerance, presenting a challenge for brands to meet their nutritional needs [18][19]. Group 5: Innovation and Marketing Strategies - Successful dairy products are increasingly driven by flavor and fun rather than just nutrition, with brands leveraging social media for marketing [20][21]. - Innovative product forms, such as the cross-category "frozen yogurt" from Jianai, exemplify how brands can extend shelf life and enhance consumer engagement through unique packaging and consumption experiences [21][22]. Group 6: Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is at a critical juncture requiring structural changes to avoid homogenization and enhance product value [24]. - Companies must focus on creating unique value propositions, whether through technological advantages or deep market understanding, to thrive in a competitive landscape [25].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing pressure from graduation banquets, but the stabilization of Moutai prices may boost confidence [2][13] - The approval of D-allohexose and the implementation of childcare subsidies are key investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.62%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54% [1][24] - Specific segments include meat products (+1.22%), liquor III (+1.20%), baked goods (+0.92%), and beverages (-1.64%) [1][24] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.20% increase, outperforming the overall food and beverage industry but underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2][13] - The price of 25-year Moutai (original) is 1935 yuan, up by 65 yuan from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in industry confidence [2][13] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The approval of new food raw materials and the rollout of childcare subsidies are expected to catalyze growth in the health products, soft drinks, snacks, and dairy sectors [4][15] - The childcare subsidy program provides 3600 yuan per child annually, which may positively impact the dairy sector [4][15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, focus on companies benefiting from concentration and strong alpha, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [5][22] - In the consumer goods sector, recommend companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, including Lihigh Food and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Coca-Cola and Mengniu for the fairlife brand has officially ended, with the joint venture "Keniule" being dissolved after failing to gain traction in the Chinese market [1][6]. Group 1: Background of the Collaboration - The fairlife brand was initially established in 2012 as a joint venture between Coca-Cola and Select Milk Producers, launching ultra-filtered milk in 2014 that doubled protein content and removed lactose [2]. - Mengniu began discussions with Coca-Cola in early 2018 to introduce fairlife to the Chinese market, leading to Coca-Cola acquiring full ownership of fairlife for $980 million in December 2019 [2][3]. - "Keniule" was officially established in October 2020, with Coca-Cola holding 51% and Mengniu 49%, and a significant investment of 2.1 billion yuan was made to build a factory in Bengbu [3]. Group 2: Product Launch and Features - The fairlife brand was launched in China in September 2021, introducing three key products: whole milk, low-fat milk, and chocolate milk, which were representative of the brand in North America [3]. - Fairlife's unique selling proposition included higher protein and calcium content, longer shelf life, and zero lactose, achieved through an "over-filtration" production process [5]. - Fairlife's pricing was positioned higher than most competitors, with whole milk priced at approximately 11.9 yuan for 195ml and 34.9 yuan for 710ml, making it about 30% more expensive than regular high-end milk [6]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Withdrawal - Despite the backing of two major companies, fairlife struggled to convince Chinese consumers to pay a premium for its products, leading to a decline in sales and eventual withdrawal from various retail channels by early 2022 [6][9]. - The brand attempted to penetrate the market through both retail and B2B channels, including a partnership with Costa Coffee, but failed to replicate the success of competitors like OATLY [7]. - By April 2023, fairlife was completely withdrawn from both online and offline sales, with the companies citing a need for strategic evaluation [9]. Group 4: Future Directions - Following the cessation of fairlife, Coca-Cola is continuing to explore the dairy market in China with the launch of a new product called "Lubeile," which focuses on high-nutrition milk [10]. - The new product, priced at 8 yuan for a 256ml bottle, emphasizes high protein content and aims to align better with the preferences of Chinese consumers [11].

Core Viewpoint - Consumer demand in the food and beverage sector is stabilizing at a low level, with structural highlights emerging despite overall weak consumer confidence. The sector is expected to improve marginally in the second half of 2025 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [1][4]. Group 1: Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a marginal improvement in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies to stimulate consumption and encourage childbirth [1]. - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March 2025, with expectations for continued growth in new consumption trends such as spicy snacks, healthy beverages, and sparkling yellow wine [1][4]. - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, is experiencing a valuation correction due to macroeconomic factors and policy impacts, with the fundamentals currently at a bottoming stage [1][4]. Group 2: Mass Food Segment - The mass food sector is expected to see stable demand growth, with high-growth sub-sectors like leisure snacks and soft drinks maintaining innovation and high market activity [4][7]. - The leisure snack market is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented and flavorful products, with ingredients like konjac and high-protein snacks gaining popularity [11][17]. - The soft drink sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly in health-related subcategories, with innovations in products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte water [19][27]. Group 3: Channel Trends - The snack retail channel is expanding, with significant growth in discount supermarkets and membership-based stores, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9]. - E-commerce channels, including short video platforms and community group buying, continue to grow, with notable sales increases during shopping festivals [9][19]. - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing transformations to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and store formats [9][10]. Group 4: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with demand expected to remain under pressure in the second half of 2025, although leading brands are focusing on long-term value creation [4][52]. - The impact of government regulations on consumption patterns is being monitored, with expectations for gradual recovery in consumer demand for baijiu [53][55]. - The pricing dynamics of leading brands like Moutai are stabilizing after significant fluctuations, indicating a potential for recovery in the market [55][57]. Group 5: Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some categories like liquid milk and cheese showing signs of improvement, while overall demand remains weak [30][31]. - The cost of raw milk has decreased, which is expected to benefit dairy companies' profit margins in 2025 [31][37]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist in emerging dairy categories and international markets, as companies expand their product lines and distribution channels [46][47]. Group 6: Frozen Foods and Condiments - The frozen food sector is expected to see revenue growth in the second half of 2025 as companies shift focus to consumer channels amid weak restaurant demand [49][50]. - The condiment industry is facing pressure from external demand but is benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may enhance profit margins [51]. - Companies are actively pursuing innovation and market expansion to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [51].