证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|中国财险（02328） 车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月17日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年 8 月保费收入公告，8 月当月公司实现保费收入 373.75 亿元，同比+7.0%， 其中车险同比+4.4%、非车险同比+12.2%，车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好。鉴于公司稀缺 的商业模式和较高的 ROE，我们维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522100001 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月17日 中国财险(02328) 车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|---------------------|----------------| | | | | | | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | | 当前价格： | 10.08 港元 | | 基本数据 | | | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry despite a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to frequent natural disasters in the first half of 2024. The company has a solid pricing and scale advantage, which is anticipated to enhance its market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year to 18.491 billion yuan. The underwriting profit is expected to be 8.999 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the increase in the combined ratio caused by natural disasters. Investment income is forecasted to decrease by 7.8% to 13.971 billion yuan, with a total investment return rate dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2% (not annualized) [1][3]. Combined Ratio - The combined ratio for the first half of 2024 is expected to rise by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 96.2%, with the loss ratio increasing by 1.2 percentage points to 70.1% and the expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 26.1% [1]. Premium Income - The company achieved original premium income of 311.996 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, maintaining a market share of 34%. Insurance service income reached 235.841 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year, continuing to lead the industry [1]. Business Segments - **Auto Insurance**: Insurance service income grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 145.157 billion yuan, with underwriting profit increasing by 13.3% to 5.202 billion yuan. The combined ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 96.4% [2]. - **Accident and Health Insurance**: Insurance service income rose by 7.5% year-on-year to 24.751 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 96.3% to 0.13 billion yuan due to increased compensation standards [2]. - **Agricultural Insurance**: Insurance service income decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 23.292 billion yuan, while underwriting profit increased by 14.6% to 2.572 billion yuan, driven by improved risk management [2]. - **Liability Insurance**: Insurance service income grew by 8.4% year-on-year to 18.339 billion yuan, but underwriting loss was 0.747 billion yuan due to changes in business structure [3]. - **Enterprise Property Insurance**: Insurance service income increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 8.862 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 94.3% to 0.038 billion yuan due to increased disaster losses [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to face pressure on its investment side due to anticipated fluctuations in the capital market. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 26.6 billion yuan and 29 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.38% and 8.79%, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 net profit of 31.5 billion yuan has been added [3].

PICC 中国人民财产保险股份有限公司 PICC PROPERTY AND CASUALTY COMPANY LIMITED 股份代號: 2328 2024 中期報告 . 公司簡介 本公司於2003年7月由中國人民保險集團獨家發起設立，是中國內 地最大的財產保險公司。本公司於2003年11月6日成功在香港聯交 所主板掛牌上市，成為中國內地第一家在海外上市的金融企業。目 前，本公司總股本為22,242,765,303股，其中中國人民保險集團持 有68.98%的股份，H股股東持有31.02%的股份。 主要業務 機動車輛保險、企業財產保險、貨物運輸保險、責任保險、意外傷害保 險、短期健康保險、農業保險、信用保險、保證保險、家庭財產保險、船舶 保險等人民幣及外幣保險業務；與上述業務相關的再保險業務；國家法律法 規允許的投資和資金運用業務。 目錄 財務摘要 2 經營業績和財務狀況的 討論與分析 | --- | |------------------| | | | | | 業績概覽 | | 主要業務經營分析 | | 專項分析 | | 展望 | 公司治理及 其他資料 28 未經審計中期簡 明合併財務資料 中期簡明合併利潤表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of HKD 11.59-12.20, based on a 2024E PB of 0.95-1.0x [3][4] Core Views - The company's property and casualty insurance business, particularly auto insurance, demonstrates strong competitive advantages, with a higher proportion of low-claim-rate household auto insurance and controllable channel costs [3] - Despite the impact of natural disasters and other factors, the company's comprehensive cost ratio remains superior to industry peers [1][3] - The company's Q2 net profit showed significant improvement, with a YoY increase of 17.4%, partially offsetting the 38.3% decline in Q1 [1][4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.49 billion, a YoY decrease of 8.7%, with underwriting profit of RMB 9.0 billion, down 5.0% YoY [1] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders reached RMB 242.8 billion, a 4.9% increase from the beginning of the year, with an unannualized ROE of 7.7%, down 1.3 percentage points YoY [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points YoY to 96.2%, with the auto insurance and agricultural insurance ratios improving by 0.3 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively [3][7] Business Operations - H1 2024 premium income grew steadily, with a YoY increase of 3.7%, and the company's market share rose by 1.5 percentage points to 34.0% [1] - Auto insurance service income increased by 5.3% YoY, with household auto insurance policies up 6.5% and new car insurance policies up 5.2% [1] - New energy vehicle insurance policies surged by 59.3% YoY, with household auto insurance policies in this segment up 60.6% [1] - Non-auto insurance service income grew by 4.9% YoY, with liability insurance and accident/health insurance up 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively, while agricultural insurance declined by 7.0% [1][6] Investment Strategy - The company significantly increased its allocation to fixed deposits, government bonds, and treasury bonds, while reducing its allocation to funds [4] - As of H1 2024, the total investment asset size reached RMB 641.8 billion, a 6.8% increase from the beginning of the year, with fixed income and equity investments accounting for 60.5% and 24.1%, respectively [4] - The total investment income was RMB 14.0 billion, a YoY decrease of 7.8%, with an unannualized investment return rate of 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points YoY [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company's current stock price corresponds to a 2024E PB of 0.83x, which is at a low valuation level [3] - The report forecasts a 2024E EPS of RMB 1.16, with a YoY increase of 5.1%, and a 2024E BVPS of RMB 11.13, up 7.0% YoY [5][11] - The company's net profit is expected to grow by 9.3% and 11.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with EPS reaching RMB 1.27 and RMB 1.42 [5][11] Industry Comparison - The company's 2024E PB of 0.83x is lower than the average PB of 1.44x for comparable property and casualty insurance companies [10] - The company's 2023 ROE of 10.6% is slightly below the average ROE of 11.37% for comparable companies [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current price of HKD 10.08 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's profit performance is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 8.7% for the first half of the year, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half due to a low comparative base [1]. - Insurance service revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 5% growth in auto insurance, while agricultural insurance saw a decline of 7% [1]. - The combined cost ratio (COR) improved for auto and agricultural insurance, with the overall COR at 96.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Total investment income decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, but a more stable performance is expected in the second half due to adjustments in asset allocation [1]. - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.208 per share, with a payout ratio of 25% [1]. Financial Overview - For the first half of 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 24,585 million, down 8.7% year-on-year, with total investment income of RMB 20,807 million [5][8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at RMB 1.19 [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow at a rate of 5.2% annually, with insurance service revenue expected to increase by 7.0% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [5]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 1H24 was 18.491 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to 1Q24 [4][5]. - The insurance service revenue for 1H24 increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 235.841 billion RMB, with a combined ratio (COR) improvement of 0.4 percentage points to 96.2% [4]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which have shown significant results, particularly in the auto insurance segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 net profit was 18.491 billion RMB, down 8.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in 2Q24, where net profit increased by 17.4% to 12.620 billion RMB [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.208 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 25.02% [3]. Insurance Service Revenue - Insurance service revenue for 2023 is projected at 457.203 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3]. - The company reported a 5.3% increase in auto insurance revenue to 145.157 billion RMB in 1H24, with a combined ratio of 96.4% [4]. Cost Management - The combined ratio for 1H24 improved to 96.2%, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 26.1% [4]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a 1.8 percentage point reduction in the expense ratio despite pressures from claims [4]. Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its asset allocation, increasing its holdings in government bonds and reducing exposure to funds and corporate bonds [5]. - The total investment assets as of June increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 641.834 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.69, compared to the current price of HKD 10.08 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to natural disasters, with a net profit growth in Q2 2024. The company achieved original premium income of CNY 311.996 billion in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The overall COR rose by 0.4 percentage points to 96.2%, primarily due to an increase in claims from natural disasters, which pressured the loss ratio to 70.1% [2]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in the agricultural insurance segment's COR, which decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 89.0%, contributing significantly to underwriting profits [2]. - The total investment return rate (unannualized) decreased to 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by declining interest rates and market volatility [2]. - The report projects a potential improvement in the combined ratio in the second half of the year due to reduced pressure from last year's typhoon weather [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported insurance service income of CNY 235.841 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2]. - The underwriting profit was CNY 8.999 billion, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 18.490 billion, down 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be CNY 1.37, CNY 1.54, and CNY 1.70 respectively, with a maintained PB target of 1.1x for 2024 [2][9].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 18.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [4] - The underwriting profit and investment income decreased by 5.0% and 7.8% respectively year-on-year [4] - Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 12.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 115% [4] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for 2024H1 increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 96.2%, but decreased compared to 97.9% in 2024Q1 [4] - The company announced its first interim dividend of RMB 0.21 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 25%, amounting to RMB 4.6 billion [4] - The current dividend yield (TTM) is 5.32%, and the PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 6.7x, 6.0x, and 5.6x respectively [4] Financial Performance - Total premium income for 2024H1 was RMB 235.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [5] - Underwriting profit for 2024H1 was RMB 9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, but Q2 underwriting profit was RMB 6.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 183% [5] - The COR for auto insurance decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 96.4%, with a claims ratio increase of 1.5 percentage points and an expense ratio decrease of 1.8 percentage points [5] - The COR for non-auto insurance was 95.8%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, with agricultural insurance showing improved business structure and quality [5] - Total investment income for 2024H1 was RMB 13.97 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, but Q2 investment income increased by 20% year-on-year [5] - The annualized total investment yield was 4.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the annualized net investment yield was 3.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Industry and Market Analysis - The new internet property insurance regulations, effective from August 13, 2024, set higher entry barriers for internet property insurance, which is expected to optimize the industry landscape and highlight the leading position of the company [5] - Passenger car demand remains stable, supporting medium to long-term premium growth in auto insurance, with passenger car and new energy vehicle sales in July 2024 showing year-on-year changes of -5.1% and +27.0% respectively [5] Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is RMB 306 billion, RMB 340 billion, and RMB 362 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 11.0%, and 6.5% [4] - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 1.4, RMB 1.5, and RMB 1.6 respectively [4] - The forecasted total premium income for 2024-2026 is RMB 4,244 billion, RMB 4,572 billion, and RMB 4,787 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 4.7%, and 7.6% [6] - The forecasted comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for 2024-2026 is 97.3%, 97.0%, and 96.9% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) with a current price of HKD 10.08 [1]. Core Views - The company has implemented its first interim dividend, maintaining a good level of Combined Operating Ratio (COR) [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a premium income of CNY 312 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 18.49 billion, a decrease of 8.7% [7][9]. - The company continues to lead the industry with a market share of 34.0% in the non-life insurance sector [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 22.243 billion - Total market capitalization: CNY 224.207 billion - 1-year price range: HKD 8.55 to HKD 11.54 - 3-month turnover rate: 33.9% [3]. Revenue Performance - Insurance service revenue for H1 2024 was CNY 235.84 billion, up 5.1% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of growth compared to Q1 [8]. - The breakdown of insurance service revenue includes: - Motor insurance: CNY 145.16 billion, up 5.3% - Non-motor insurance: CNY 90.68 billion, up 4.9% [8]. Cost and Profitability - The combined cost ratio (COR) increased by 0.4 percentage points to 96.2%, still maintaining a good level compared to peers [8]. - The underwriting profit for H1 2024 was CNY 9 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year [8]. - The total investment income decreased by 7.8% to CNY 13.97 billion, with a non-annualized total investment return of 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is CNY 27.9 billion, CNY 30.8 billion, and CNY 34.1 billion respectively [10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.84 for 2024, indicating it is still at a historically low level [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance achieved an insurance service revenue of 235.84 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. However, the company's underwriting profit decreased by 5% to 9 billion yuan due to rising costs in non-auto insurance services. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.7% to 18.49 billion yuan, primarily due to pressure on investment income [1]. - The auto insurance segment showed a steady performance with a revenue of 145.16 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. The combined ratio for auto insurance was 96.4%, a slight improvement from the previous year. The report notes that the company is actively managing fees to benefit consumers [1]. - Non-auto insurance segments, including health, liability, and property insurance, also demonstrated good growth, with revenue increases of 7.5%, 8.4%, and 6.3%, respectively. However, the combined ratios for these segments increased due to structural adjustments and natural disasters [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic shift towards optimizing asset allocation under the new IFRS 9 standards, increasing the proportion of FVOCI assets to 32.2% of total investment assets, while reducing FVTPL assets [1]. - The earnings forecast remains stable, with expected EPS of 1.28, 1.44, and 1.54 yuan per share for 2024 to 2026, corresponding to PB ratios of 0.92, 0.86, and 0.81 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the projected operating revenue is 504.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6.57% compared to 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 28.42 billion yuan, a 15.59% increase from the previous year [2]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.28 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 8.02 and a PB ratio of 0.92 [2][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, indicating a steady growth trajectory in revenue and profitability over the next few years [2][9].