证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险(HS) 中国财险（02328.HK） 2024 年中报点评：利润降幅大幅收窄实属不 易，车险承保盈利逆势改善 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 保险服务收入（百万元） | 424,355 | 457,203 | 494,002 | 529,798 | 569,764 | | 同比 | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | | 归母利润（百万元） | 29,163 | 24,585 | 29,641 | 32,330 | 34,478 | | 同比 | 30.4% | -15.7% | 20.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | | 净资产收益率 | 13.4% | 1 ...

Financial Performance - The company achieved original insurance premium income of RMB 311.996 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Insurance service income reached RMB 235.841 billion, up 5.1% compared to the same period in 2023[5] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 18.491 billion, down 8.7% from RMB 20.256 billion in the same period last year[5] - The total insurance premium income for the top ten regions reached RMB 311.996 billion, a 3.7% increase compared to RMB 300.930 billion in the same period last year[22] - The company reported a total of 197.5 million digital risk assessment reports issued in the first half of 2024[17] - The total comprehensive income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 22,277 million, compared to RMB 19,698 million for the same period in 2023, showing an increase of 13.3%[82] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 0.831, compared to RMB 0.911 for the same period in 2023, a decline of 8.8%[81] - The company reported a net exchange gain of RMB 3,241 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 3,469 million for the same period in 2023, a decrease of 6.6%[81] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 736.639 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.7% from RMB 703.623 billion at the end of 2023[6] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 491,115 million, up from RMB 469,319 million as of December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of 4.6%[84] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 242,835 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 231,420 million as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 4.9%[84] - The total amount of insurance contract liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 382,543 million, with net insurance contract liabilities amounting to RMB 381,747 million[124] Investment Performance - Total investment income for the period was RMB 13.971 billion[15] - The total investment return rate (not annualized) was 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[38] - The company maintained a strong investment philosophy, focusing on risk control and optimizing the investment asset portfolio[41] - The company is actively investing in high-quality equity projects to enhance its investment portfolio[64] - The total amount of financial investments measured at fair value as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 206,883 million, an increase of 14.8% from RMB 180,142 million as of December 31, 2023[120] Underwriting and Insurance Services - Underwriting profit was RMB 8.999 billion, a decrease of 5.0% from RMB 9.469 billion in the previous year[5] - The combined ratio was 96.2%, with the auto insurance combined ratio at 96.4% and the non-auto insurance combined ratio at 95.8%[15] - The comprehensive loss ratio increased to 70.1%, up by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year[19] - The accident and health insurance service income was RMB 24.751 billion, a 7.5% increase from RMB 23.019 billion year-on-year[28] - The underwriting profit for accident and health insurance significantly dropped to RMB 0.013 billion, a decrease of 96.3% from RMB 0.350 billion[28] Customer Base and Market Position - The company maintained a market share of 34.0% in the Chinese property insurance market, continuing to lead the industry[15] - The number of individual customers insured exceeded 120 million, while group customers reached 4.39 million, representing growth of 1.4% and 3.8% respectively since the beginning of the year[16] - The company provided risk protection for 127,000 enterprises in industrial parks, covering risks amounting to RMB 17.4 trillion[16] - The company expanded its agricultural insurance services to 41.79 million farming households, with coverage extending to 30 provinces[16] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company’s comprehensive expense ratio improved to 26.1%, down by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year[19] - The company is committed to reducing costs and increasing efficiency across all operational areas, including sales and underwriting[63] - The total expenses for insurance services for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were CNY 217,380 million, up from CNY 204,715 million in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 6.1%[97][98] Governance and Compliance - The company confirmed compliance with all provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the reporting period[77] - The interim financial data for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was reviewed by Ernst & Young, with no significant issues identified[80] - The company has appointed a new independent director, Xue Shuang, to strengthen its governance structure[65] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness and foster new growth points by focusing on high-quality development and risk prevention in the context of a stable Chinese economy[63] - The company plans to provide comprehensive insurance services for technology enterprises and promote green insurance in sectors like clean energy and low-carbon technology[63] - The company is accelerating its digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience through AI applications in marketing and claims processing[63]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|中国财险（02328） 车险及非车险保费增速均环比提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年 7 月保费收入公告，7 月当月公司实现保费收入 327.8 亿元，同比+7.6%，其 中车险同比+3.9%、非车险同比+17.4%，增速环比 6 月均有所提升。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522100001 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月15日 中国财险(02328) 车险及非车险保费增速均环比提升 | --- | --- | |------------|----------------| | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 10.16 港元 | 基本数据 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 22,242.77/6,899.29 流通市值(百万港元) 70,096.83 每股净资产(元) 11.10 资产负债率(%) 66.72 一年内最 ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 财 险 （02328.HK） 海外财险公司的估值及中国财险 ROE 拆解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （除特别注明外，报告货币为人民币） 从全球龙头财险公司的经验看，（1）PB 估值水平和 ROE 之间具备显 著的正相关性，如前进保险的 ROE 从 2015 年的 17.8%提升至 2018 年的 26.5%，PB 从 2.1X 提升至 3X，好事达 ROE 从 2015 年的 10.6% 提升至 2019 年的 21.7%，PB 估值从 1.07X 提升至 1.35X，且短期的 ROE 下降不会影响估值中枢水平；（2）海外龙头财险公司近年来大部 分 ROE 在两位数以上，且对应 PB 在 1X 以上；（3）ROE 的变化受保 费收入增速、承保利润和投资的影响。（报告汇率 HKD/CNY=0.925） 展望中国财险 24-26 年 ROE 为 11.3%-12%。(1)保费预期：车险方面， 机动车保有量稳定增长，而人保有望凭借品牌和服务优势实现承保数 量的提升，另外短期看报行 ...

证券研究投告 中国财险 (2328 HK) A 1.00 . PhD (852) 3558 6112 +(86) 21 2897 2228 主大成都 11.00目标价 (本名) 救金命 (海令 秦王 7 月 29 日)10.06 本位 (海名百万)223,762 6 个月个均日点文辑 (港专区方)301.02 52 鸡谷格克国 (毛名)8.03-11.54 BVPS (人民名)10.40 成价大学园 28 15 2 (12) (25) Nov-23 Jul-24 Jul-23 个半多次 - S&P 1H24 巨炎带未坑的 부휴坏充 2024 年７月 30 日 | 中国香港 是新版合 体验 1H24 剁满赢网 比下半 年初的市至交客孚县中国财险 1Q24 的综合成本年 (COR) 同比上升 2.2pct 至 97.9%。考虑到二季度的基両送水灾害老和对较为领导，表们预计 1H24 的 COR 为 97.2%，高于 1H23 的 95.8%。二季度的投资市场免场后种，整 休秘为稳定且高总殷标块表现和对较好,对高总殷特色较多的险资可能有支 操作用，投资未现应好千一季度。表们预计 1H24 EPS RMB0.76，同 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 15 日 中国财险(02328) 车险增速环比回落,非车险增速环比改善 事件:公司发布 2024 年 6 月保费收入公告,6 月当月公司实现保费收入 628.75 亿元,同比+6.1%,其中车险同比+1.8%、非车险同比+9.2%。 ➢ 6 月车险保费同比+1.8%,增速环比有所回落,主因新车销量降幅扩大 6 月公司实现车险保费收入 254.29 亿元,同比+1.8%。公司的车险保费增 速环比回落(5 月为+4.4%),主要系新车销量降幅扩大。6 月我国狭义乘用 车零售销量同比-6.7%(5 月为-1.8%)。但全年来看,随着"以旧换新"政 策的效果逐步显现,新车销量仍有望实现较好增长,从而能带动公司车险 保费实现正增。对于车险 COR,2024Q2 公司的车险 COR 预计将保持在较好 水平。2024Q2 以来,得益于公司积极践行"保险+风险减量服务+科技"新 商业模式,自然灾害对公司车险赔付率的影响可控。公司的车险赔付率预 计将处于较好水平。同时车险执行"报行合一"也有望推动车险费用率同 比改善。从全年维度来看,随着公司持续升级风险减量服务水平、优化车 险业务结构,公 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of HKD 11.45 to 12.10, indicating a potential upside of over 16.6% from the current price of HKD 9.70 [3][8]. Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (China P&C) is a leading state-owned property insurance company in China, with a premium scale that ranks first in Asia and second globally. As of the end of 2023, the company's premium income exceeded RMB 500 billion for the first time, reaching RMB 515.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.26% [1][8]. - The company benefits from a strong competitive position characterized by high entry barriers, significant capital requirements, and sensitivity to new technology applications, which create a substantial "moat" effect. The top three insurers in the market account for 63.42% of total premium income, highlighting the pronounced Matthew effect in the industry [1][16]. - The company is well-positioned for growth in both auto and non-auto insurance segments, leveraging its extensive service network, business scale, and data reserves. The auto insurance segment generated RMB 285.63 billion in premiums, maintaining its industry-leading position, while non-auto insurance, including health, agricultural, liability, and corporate property insurance, is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China P&C, headquartered in Beijing, is the largest property insurance company in mainland China, with a history dating back to 1949. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2003, becoming the first financial enterprise from mainland China to go public overseas [8][12]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total premium income of RMB 515.81 billion in 2023, with a market share of 35.47% as of the first quarter of 2024. The auto insurance market share was 32.32%, while non-auto insurance reached 37.91% [1][8]. Business Segments - The auto insurance segment remains the largest contributor to revenue, with a focus on enhancing underwriting profitability through data-driven pricing models and partnerships with repair platforms. Non-auto insurance, particularly health and agricultural insurance, is also growing rapidly, with health insurance turning profitable in 2023 after previous losses [1][22][18]. Market Dynamics - The property insurance industry in China is characterized by high concentration among the top players, with the top three companies (China P&C, Ping An Property & Casualty, and Taiping Property & Casualty) dominating the market. The report notes a shift towards non-auto insurance products, driven by policy changes and increased public awareness [16][17]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for China P&C to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share projected at RMB 1.28, RMB 1.44, and RMB 1.54 for the respective years. The company's robust business model is expected to sustain profitability amid ongoing economic recovery and the rise of new energy vehicles [1][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price based on the closing price of HKD 10.08 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite fluctuations in underwriting profits due to natural disasters, the company's leading position remains strong with ongoing optimization of its business structure [1][4]. - In 2023, the company achieved original premium income of CNY 515.807 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and insurance service income of CNY 457.203 billion, up 7.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 24.585 billion, reflecting a decline of 15.7% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of CNY 5.871 billion, down 38.25% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported original premium income of CNY 515.807 billion, with a market share of 32.5% [3]. - The insurance service income for 2023 was CNY 457.203 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7% [5]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 24.585 billion, with a projected growth of 15.58% for 2024 [5]. Business Structure - The company has optimized its business structure, with non-auto insurance showing significant growth, achieving a service income of CNY 175.086 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year [3]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on a balanced development across various insurance products, with notable growth in health and agricultural insurance [3][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The underwriting profit for 2023 was CNY 10.189 billion, down 29.1% year-on-year, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [3]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the company was 97.8%, with specific ratios for auto and non-auto insurance being 96.9% and 99.1%, respectively [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The total investment assets reached CNY 600.711 billion in 2023, with a total investment return of CNY 20.807 billion, reflecting a return rate of 3.5% [3]. - The company maintains a conservative investment approach, focusing on fixed-income products and optimizing its investment portfolio [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.00 HKD, maintaining the current rating [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 38.626 billion CNY in May 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with both auto and non-auto insurance segments improving [2]. - The auto insurance premium income reached 22.853 billion CNY in May, also up by 4.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in average premiums and expected growth in new car sales due to trade-in policies [2]. - Non-auto insurance premiums increased by 4.3% year-on-year to 15.773 billion CNY, primarily supported by growth in liability and personal health insurance [3]. Summary by Sections Premium Income - In May 2024, the company achieved a total premium income of 38.626 billion CNY, with auto insurance contributing 22.853 billion CNY and non-auto insurance contributing 15.773 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [2][3]. Auto Insurance - The auto insurance segment's premium growth improved from 3.5% in April to 4.4% in May, attributed to better average premiums and anticipated growth in new car sales [2]. - The company expects the auto insurance combined ratio (COR) to improve to below 97% in 2024, supported by a favorable claims environment and regulatory guidance [2]. Non-Auto Insurance - The non-auto insurance segment saw a significant increase in liability insurance premiums by 17.1% year-on-year, while personal health insurance premiums grew by 5.5% [3]. - The company anticipates a modest single-digit growth in non-auto insurance for the year, driven by economic recovery and supportive policies [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company projects net profits of 28.244 billion CNY, 31.365 billion CNY, and 33.301 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 14.9%, 11%, and 6% [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to exceed 12% in 2024, reflecting the company's focus on high-quality development and improved investment income [4].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guolian Securities Research Institute, focusing on investment management and advisory services. Core Points and Arguments - The call is intended exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Guolian Securities Research Institute, emphasizing the selective nature of the audience [1] - It is clearly stated that the content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice, highlighting the importance of independent decision-making by participants [1] - Participants are reminded that they bear the responsibility for their investment decisions and any associated risks [1] - Guolian Securities disclaims any liability for losses incurred by individuals using the content of the meeting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call underscores the regulatory framework surrounding investor suitability, indicating a focus on compliance and responsible investment practices [1]