Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 38.0% year-on-year to 26.75 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant rise in total investment income due to a recovery in the capital market [3][4] - The underwriting performance was under pressure due to the impact of major disasters, with the combined cost ratio rising to 98.2%, higher than expected [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality transformation, optimizing its business structure and improving risk identification capabilities [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 12.20 - H-share market value (billion HKD): 2,713.62 - 52-week high/low (HKD): 14.12/8.55 [2] Financial Performance - Insurance service income for the first three quarters increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 364.31 billion yuan [4] - The combined cost ratio for non-auto insurance increased by 2.3 percentage points to 108.3% in Q3 2024, leading to a significant underwriting loss [5] - The company’s total investment return rate for the first three quarters was 4.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to 32.67 billion, 34.84 billion, and 38.03 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The company’s price-to-book ratio for 2024E is 0.97x, indicating a relatively safe valuation cushion [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profit growth is driven by investment gains, with the company's performance nearing the upper end of its previously announced profit forecast of 20% to 40% [1] - The company achieved an insurance service revenue of CNY 364.31 billion for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Net profit for the same period reached CNY 26.75 billion, a significant increase of 38.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a recovery in the stock market boosting fair value changes [1] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 424,355 - 2023A: 457,203 - 2024E: 494,002 - 2025E: 529,798 - 2026E: 569,764 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 6.9% - 2023A: 7.7% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 7.2% - 2026E: 7.5% - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - 2022A: 29,163 - 2023A: 24,585 - 2024E: 29,641 - 2025E: 32,330 - 2026E: 34,478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 30.4% - 2023A: -15.7% - 2024E: 20.6% - 2025E: 9.1% - 2026E: 6.6% - Return on equity (ROE): - 2022A: 13.4% - 2023A: 10.8% - 2024E: 12.1% - 2025E: 12.0% - 2026E: 11.8% - Price-to-book ratio (P/B): - 2022A: 1.20 - 2023A: 1.08 - 2024E: 0.98 - 2025E: 0.90 - 2026E: 0.83 [1] Performance Analysis - The company reported a cumulative ROE of 11.1% for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The total investment return rate improved significantly from 2.7% in 9M23 to 4.4% in 9M24, which was a key factor in the net profit improvement [1] - The company experienced a decline in underwriting profit, with a total underwriting profit down 12.7% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The cumulative comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for auto insurance was 96.8% for 9M24, showing a slight improvement due to effective cost control [1] - Non-auto insurance faced challenges with a COR of 100.5% for 9M24, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [1] - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-quality development and implementing a new business model combining insurance, risk reduction services, and technology [1]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit and total investment income were 6.44 billion yuan and 27.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and an increase of 70%. The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.26 billion yuan, turning from a loss of 870 million yuan in Q3 2023, but down 35% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points to 98.2%, up from 96.2% in H1 2024. Due to improvements driven by the equity market, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 36.5 billion, 36.8 billion, and 38.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.7, and 1.7 yuan [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 364.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The revenue from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 219.5 billion yuan and 144.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 6.1%. The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters increased to 98.2%, with Q3 COR reaching 102%, influenced by natural disasters leading to higher claims [4][5]. Investment Income - Total investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, with Q3 showing a remarkable increase of 1261%. The annualized total investment return rate was 5.9%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from significant improvements in the equity market [5]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leader in the property insurance industry, with a competitive advantage. The current dividend yield is 4.39%, and the current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.8, and 6.4 for 2024-2026, and P/B ratios of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these metrics [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) [2][4][7] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, China Pacific Insurance achieved original insurance premium income of 428.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% - The net profit reached 26.75 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 38.0% - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) was 98.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in costs [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 26.75 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, which is a 38.0% increase compared to the previous year - The total investment income for the same period was 27.498 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 70.4% with an annualized investment return rate of 5.9% [6][7] Cost Analysis - The overall COR for the first three quarters was 98.2%, with the COR for auto insurance at 96.8% (down 0.6 percentage points) and for non-auto insurance at 100.5% (up 1.9 percentage points) - The company aims to achieve a target COR of around 97% for auto insurance and below 100% for non-auto insurance by the end of the year [6][7] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 33.9 billion, 35.7 billion, and 39.8 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 38%, 6%, and 11% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing asset valuation recovery and profit improvement, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 364.31 billion yuan [1]. - The underwriting profitability remains healthy, with a reported underwriting profit of 6.44 billion yuan and a combined ratio (COR) of 98.2% [1]. - The net profit for the first half of the year reached 26.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.0% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovery in the capital market and stable interest rates [1]. - The auto insurance segment shows steady growth, with a 4.7% increase in insurance service revenue, amounting to 219.51 billion yuan [1]. - Non-auto insurance business has also maintained good growth, achieving 144.80 billion yuan in insurance service revenue, but faced underwriting losses of 0.68 billion yuan due to frequent natural disasters [1]. - The company is enhancing its asset allocation strategy, increasing the proportion of FVOCI equity assets by 10.8% year-on-year, leading to a significant improvement in investment income [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 504.48 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.59% [2][7]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is 29.52 billion yuan, representing a 20.08% increase compared to 2023 [2][7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.33 yuan [2][7]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 1.04 for 2024, decreasing to 0.90 by 2026 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) with a current price of HKD 12.20 [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 26.75 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% [2][5] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 392.27 billion, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with non-auto insurance service revenue growing by 6.1% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Insurance service revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 364.31 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year, with auto insurance revenue at CNY 219.51 billion, growing 4.7% [2][3] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 0.3 percentage points to 98.2%, primarily due to natural disasters impacting non-auto insurance profitability [4] - Total investment income reached CNY 27.5 billion, a significant increase of 70.4% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in equity markets [5] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on a new business model integrating "insurance + risk reduction services + technology," enhancing its competitive edge in the market [6] - The market share in the property insurance sector reached 32.8%, maintaining its industry leadership [6] - Future net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to CNY 33.1 billion, CNY 36.9 billion, and CNY 41.3 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328 HK) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance's 9M24 performance is expected to show significant improvement with cumulative net profit increasing by 20-40% YoY, driven by capital market recovery and improved investment returns [2] - The company's 9M24 ROE is expected to reach 10 4%, up 1 6 pct YoY, primarily due to improved investment yield and stable underwriting performance [2] - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality development and its new business model of "insurance + risk reduction services + technology" [2] Financial Performance - 9M24 cumulative net profit is expected to grow by 30% YoY, with 3Q24 net profit reaching 7 745 billion yuan (3Q23: 153 million yuan) [2] - 9M24 cumulative investment yield is expected to improve to 3 4% from 2 7% in 9M23, driving a 32% YoY increase in cumulative investment income [2] - The company's 9M24 COR is expected to be 97 7%, slightly improved from 97 9% in 9M23 [2] Business Segment Analysis Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative auto insurance COR is expected to be 96 6%, with premium growth of 3 2% YoY [2] - The improvement in auto insurance profitability is attributed to the expansion of commercial auto insurance pricing coefficients and the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [2] Non-Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative non-auto insurance COR is expected to be 99 4%, impacted by natural disasters and macroeconomic fluctuations [2] - Non-auto insurance premium growth is led by property insurance (3 3% YoY) and agricultural insurance (1 0% YoY), while credit insurance premiums declined by 5 9% YoY [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company shareholders to be 29 6 billion yuan, 32 3 billion yuan, and 34 5 billion yuan respectively [2] - Insurance service revenue is expected to grow from 494 billion yuan in 2024E to 569 8 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [2] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 12% from 2024E to 2026E [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price of HKD 13.60 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit growth of approximately 20-40% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by robust business growth and significant investment income due to stock market performance [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company's original insurance premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investment performance expected to improve significantly due to the stock market rally [3][5]. - The investment income accounted for a high proportion of the company's pre-tax profit, with 75% in 2023 and 65% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong reliance on investment performance for profitability [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB 483.95 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.85% [7]. - Total investment income is expected to rise to RMB 21.91 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 41.61% compared to the previous year [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is RMB 29.60 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.41% [7]. Investment Performance - The report notes that the stock market's performance in the third quarter of 2024 is anticipated to enhance the company's quarterly profits significantly, with an estimated profit increase of 30% attributed to the stock market rally [4][5]. - The company's equity asset allocation as of the first half of 2024 was 11.4%, with a focus on high-yield stocks and funds [5]. Underwriting Performance - The original insurance premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to grow by 4.6%, with motor insurance increasing by 3.2% and non-motor insurance by 5.9% [6]. - The combined ratio (COR) for motor insurance is expected to be around 96.8% for the full year, while the non-motor insurance COR is projected to be 99.5% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][12] Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with auto insurance growing by 5.3% and non-auto insurance by 8.9% [4][11] - The growth in auto insurance is attributed to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with expectations for steady growth driven by policies promoting vehicle upgrades [11][12] - Non-auto insurance continues to show positive growth, particularly in health insurance and credit guarantee insurance, with a forecast for continued growth in the coming year [11][12] Summary by Sections Premium Income - In September 2024, the company achieved a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with auto insurance at 26.955 billion yuan (+5.3%) and non-auto insurance at 19.224 billion yuan (+8.9%) [4][11] Auto Insurance - The auto insurance premium growth is primarily due to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with a notable improvement in growth rate from August (4.4%) to September (5.3%) [11] - The company expects the combined ratio (COR) for auto insurance to improve to below 97% in 2024 due to enhanced risk management and regulatory support [11][12] Non-Auto Insurance - Non-auto insurance premiums grew by 8.9% in September, driven by health insurance (+18.3%) and credit guarantee insurance (+15.8%) [11] - The company anticipates continued growth in non-auto insurance premiums, supported by economic recovery and favorable policies [11][12] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 28.121 billion yuan, 30.728 billion yuan, and 34.063 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 11% [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance achieved steady growth in premium income and continued optimization in cost control during H1 2024 [1] - The company's market share remained leading in the property insurance market, despite a slight decline of 0.3pct YoY to 34.0% [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio was maintained at a good level of 96.2%, with effective cost control measures in place [2] - The company's investment income improved QoQ, with a stable solvency position [2] Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved original insurance premium income of RMB 311.996 billion, up 3.7% YoY [2] - Insurance service income reached RMB 235.841 billion, up 5.1% YoY, driven by growth in motor vehicle insurance (RMB 145.157 billion, +5.3% YoY), accident and health insurance (RMB 24.751 billion, +7.5% YoY), and liability insurance (RMB 18.339 billion, +8.4% YoY) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.491 billion, down 8.7% YoY, mainly due to high-frequency natural disasters impacting non-auto insurance profitability [2] Cost Control - The comprehensive cost ratio for auto insurance was 96.4%, down 0.3pct YoY, with a comprehensive loss ratio of 71.2% (+1.5pct YoY) and a comprehensive expense ratio of 25.2% (-1.8pct YoY) [2] - Non-auto insurance had a comprehensive cost ratio of 95.8%, up 1.5pct YoY, with agricultural insurance showing improvement at 89.0% (-2.0pct YoY) due to business structure optimization [2] Investment Performance - Investment income in H1 2024 was RMB 13.971 billion, down 7.8% YoY, with an annualized total investment yield of 4.4% (-0.8pct YoY but +1.2pct QoQ) [2] - Investment assets totaled RMB 641.834 billion, up 6.8% YoY, with fixed-income assets at RMB 387.962 billion (+10.9% from the beginning of the year) and equity investment assets at RMB 154.936 billion (-2.2% YoY) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 5.50%, 6.15%, and 6.32% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 7.63%, 9.17%, and 12.41% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.19, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.46 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] Valuation - The stock's PE ratio is estimated at 7.82x, 7.17x, and 6.37x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price as of September 17 [3]