证券研究报告·海外公司点评·工业工程(HS) 舜宇光学科技（02382.HK） 2024年中期业绩点评：手机高端化效果凸显， 盈利能力有望持续向上 2024 年 08 月 26 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------|---------|--------|-------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33325 | 31832 | 38135 | 43340 | 48182 | | 同比(%) | (11.28) | (4.48) | 19.80 | 13.65 | 11.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2408 | 1099 | 2300 | 2914 | 3449 | | 同比(%) | (51.73) | (54.34) | 109.24 | 26.68 | 18.34 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.20 ...

Investment Rating - **Rating**: BUY (Maintained) [2] - **Target Price**: HKD 70.09 (Up from HK$49.37) [2] - **Current Price**: HKD 46.65 (Upside: +50.3%) [2] Core Viewpoints - **1H24 Results**: Sunny Optical's 1H24 revenue and net income were RMB14,279mn and RMB1,079mn respectively, beating market consensus by 12.4% and 14.3% [2] - **Key Drivers**: Recovery in smartphone demand, especially flagship models, drove volume, ASP, and GM improvements [2] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Blended GM improved to 17.2% (vs. 14.9% in 1H23), driven by HLS and optoelectronics margin improvements [2] - **High-End Products**: High-end handset product shipments (6P+ lens, periscopes, large image size modules) grew 23.2% YoY, contributing 25.6% of total shipments [4] - **XR Segment**: XR revenue surged 110% YoY to ~RMB1bn, accounting for 5.3% of total revenue [8] - **Automotive Products**: Vehicle-related sales rose 16.4% YoY to RMB2,877mn, with VLS shipment guidance raised to 10-15% YoY [8] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: 1H24 revenue grew 32.1% YoY to RMB14,279mn [2] - **Net Income Growth**: Net income surged 147% YoY to RMB1,079mn, reaching 60% of FY24E estimates [2] - **Gross Margin**: Optical components' GM rebounded 5.8ppts YoY to 31.8%, while optoelectronics' GM improved 1.3ppts to 8.2% [3] - **R&D Expense**: R&D expense accounted for 7.8% of total revenue, with FY24E CAPEX maintained at ~RMB3.0bn [9] Market Position and Strategy - **Market Share**: Sunny Optical dominates the China handset market with ~50% market share, focusing on domestic OEMs like Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi [6] - **Diversification Strategy**: Non-smartphone revenue contribution (auto + XR) increased to >30% of total revenue in 1H24, up from 15.5% in FY20 [9] - **Product Mix**: Management continues to focus on improving product mix to benefit ASP and GM, with HLS shipment guidance raised to 10-15% YoY [5] Future Outlook - **Smartphone Market Recovery**: Global smartphone shipments are expected to gradually pick up in FY24E, driven by top-tier clients' flagship models [5] - **Automotive Growth**: Sunny's automotive CCM order book reached RMB10bn, supporting mid-long term revenue growth [8] - **XR and AI**: AI technology and foldables are expected to drive high-end smartphone growth and promote a new replacement cycle [7] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Valuation**: Sunny Optical is trading at FY24E/25E 19.5x/16.0x PE, below its 10-year average [10] - **Earnings Forecast**: FY24E-26E net profit estimates raised by 35.8%/34.0%/31.7%, driven by higher sales and GM forecasts [9] - **Sales Growth**: FY24E-26E sales and net profit growth expected to accelerate to 10.7%/20.3% CAGR [10]

Company Overview - Current stock price (HKD): 48.500 [1] - 52-week high/low (HKD): 76.350/33.300 [1] - Market cap (HKD billion): 530.98 [1] - Shares outstanding (billion): 10.95 [1] - Turnover rate (last 3 months): 75.94% [1] Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (upgraded) [2] Core Views - 2024H2 profitability expected to improve, driven by XR new product launches and AI smartphone catalysts [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts revised upward to 2.3/2.9/3.6 billion yuan, representing YoY growth of 108%/26%/24% [4] - Current stock price of 48.5 HKD implies 2024-2026 P/E ratios of 21.2/16.8/13.5x [4] Business Performance - 2024H1 net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, within guidance range of 1.05-1.09 billion yuan [5] - Smartphone lens and module ASP increased 10%-15% YoY in 2024H1 [5] - Automotive revenue grew 16% YoY in 2024H1, with vehicle lens shipments up 13% [5] - AR/VR revenue surged 111% YoY in 2024H1, exceeding expectations [5] Outlook - 2024H2 smartphone optics profitability improvement trend expected to continue [6] - XR new product launches could provide positive catalysts [6] - 2024 smartphone lens shipment growth guidance revised upward to 5%-10% [6] - 2024 XR revenue growth guidance raised to 25% [6] - Automotive business maintains previous guidance: 10%-15% vehicle lens shipment growth and 25% module revenue growth in 2024 [6] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue: 38.675 billion yuan (+22.1% YoY) [6] - 2024E net profit: 2.287 billion yuan (+108.0% YoY) [6] - 2024E gross margin: 17.9% [6] - 2024E net margin: 5.9% [6] - 2024E ROE: 9.3% [6] - 2024E EPS: 2.09 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 18.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with a significant net profit growth of 147.1% to 1.079 billion RMB, exceeding the upper limit of the profit forecast range [2]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to enhanced margins across the three main business segments: optical components, optoelectronic products, and optical instruments, with gross margins increasing by 5.8%, 1.3%, and 5.2% respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end optical specifications and product structure optimization, which has significantly boosted the profitability of mobile phone optics [2]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 1.095 billion - Total market capitalization: 53.098 billion HKD - 1-year price range: 33.3 - 76.35 HKD - Recent turnover rate: 116.9% [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a substantial improvement in its financial performance for the first half of 2024, with mobile-related product revenue of 13.029 billion RMB, a 34.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 69.1% of total revenue [2]. - The global smartphone market saw a 6.5% increase in shipments in Q2 2024, with the company maintaining its position as the largest supplier of smartphone lenses [2]. - The company has raised its 2024 smartphone lens shipment growth guidance to 5%-10% due to increased orders from major clients [2]. Business Segments - The automotive-related products segment generated 2.877 billion RMB in revenue, a 16.4% increase year-on-year, with expectations for a 10-15% increase in shipments for 2024 [2]. - The VR/AR segment experienced a remarkable growth of 111.4% in revenue to 999.2 million RMB, driven by increased demand for VR pancake modules [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has revised the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 upwards by 68% and 60% respectively, projecting net profits of 2.476 billion RMB and 2.965 billion RMB [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in smartphone demand and ongoing upgrades in optical specifications [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Sunny Optical, with a target price (TP) raised to HK$72.52 from the previous HK$67.88, indicating a potential upside of 47.3% [2][23]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's 1H24 revenue and net profit grew by 32% and 145% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a recovery in average selling prices (ASP) and gross profit margins (GPM) in the smartphone segment, as well as strong growth in automotive and XR (extended reality) products [2][12]. - The company has revised its shipment guidance for HLS (High-Level Sensors) and VLS (Vehicle Lens Systems) for 2024, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5-10% and 10-15%, respectively [2][12]. - The report highlights upcoming catalysts, including the iPhone 16 launch and the rise of Android AI smartphones, which are expected to drive further growth [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue reached HK$16,225 million, with a gross profit margin of 17.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points [12][14]. - The net profit for 1H24 was HK$2,452 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 4% [12][14]. - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at HK$39,765 million, with expected growth continuing into FY25E and FY26E [14][26]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Sunny Optical is positioned as a leader in the optical components market, with significant growth expected from the smartphone and automotive sectors [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the company's ASP and GPM, particularly in the high-end smartphone segment and automotive lenses, which are projected to grow significantly [2][12]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of HK$72.52 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.9x for FY25E [2][23]. - The report assigns different P/E multiples to various business segments, with 18x for camera modules, 25x for smartphone lenses, and 35x for automotive lenses, indicating strong growth potential across these areas [2][23].

22 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Gearing up for new growth cycle; Raise TP to HK$72.52 Sunny's 1H24 revenue/NP growth of 32%/145% YoY is largely in-line with prior positive profit alert, driven by smartphone's HLS/HCM ASP/GPM recovery and rapid auto/XR growth. Mgmt. raised 2024 shipment guidance for HLS/VLS to 5-10% YoY /10-15% YoY (vs prior +5%/10% YoY), and guided ASP/GPM improvement into 2H24E and 2025. For 2025, we are positive on Ap ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Sunny Optical Technology (02382 HK) reported strong H1 2024 performance with revenue reaching RMB 18 86 billion, a 32% YoY increase [3] - Gross margin improved by 2 3pct YoY and 3 1pct QoQ to 17 2%, driven by product specification upgrades and increased production capacity utilization [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged 147% YoY to RMB 1 079 billion, with a net profit margin of 5 7%, up 2 7pct YoY and 1 9pct QoQ [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of optical specification upgrades, with further improvements in profitability anticipated for H2 2024 and 2025 [3] - The target market cap is set at HKD 69 2 billion, with a target price of HKD 63, corresponding to 20X 2025 P/E [4] Business Segments Mobile Optics - Mobile-related products revenue grew 34 5% YoY to RMB 13 billion, accounting for 69% of total revenue [3] - Shipments of 6P and above lenses increased by 23% YoY, with high-end product structure further improving [3] - Large image sensor and periscope module shipments grew 66 5% YoY to 15 02 million units [3] - Expected mobile lens gross margin for H2 2024 is 20%-25%, and mobile module gross margin is 6%-10% [3] Automotive Optics - Automotive-related products revenue increased 16 4% YoY to RMB 2 9 billion, accounting for 15 3% of total revenue [4] - Automotive lens shipments grew 13% YoY to 53 23 million units, with full-year shipment growth expected at 10%-15% [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the 8MP automotive module market, with 8MP COB module shipments leading the industry [4] - Multiple LiDAR product projects have been secured, and the PGU based on HUD chip development has received domestic customer orders, with mass production expected in H2 2024 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 38 9/42 4/44 5 billion, with YoY growth of +23%/+9%/+5% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 2 2/3 2/3 5 billion, with YoY growth of +100%/+44%/+10% [4] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14 5% in 2023 to 20 3% in 2026 [9] - ROE is projected to increase from 5 0% in 2023 to 11 6% in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 22 5X/15 6X/14 2X [5] - P/S ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 1 3X/1 2X/1 1X [5] - ROIC is expected to increase from 6 1% in 2023 to 11 6% in 2026 [8]

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：45.45 港元/股 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号： S0740521120002 Email： wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师：张琼 执业证书编号： S0740523070004 Email：zhangqiong@zts.com.cn S0740122030020 联系人：洪嘉琳 Email：hongjl@zts.com.cn S0740122030020 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 1,095 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,095 | | 市价(港元) | 45.45 | | 市值(百万港元) | 49,759 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 49,759 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 舜宇光学科技 恒生指数 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-1220 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant recovery in consumer electronics and product high-endization, contributing to a revenue increase of 32% year-on-year in H1 2024, with net profit rising by 147% [2]. - The revenue growth is attributed to the recovery in consumer electronics demand and continuous optimization of the product structure, with stable growth in the automotive sector [2]. - The company expects net profit to reach 2.2 billion, 2.6 billion, and 3.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 22, 19, and 17 times [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (Million Yuan)**: 2022A: 33,197; 2023A: 31,681; 2024E: 39,455; 2025E: 45,782; 2026E: 53,068 [1]. - **Net Profit (Million Yuan)**: 2022A: 2,408; 2023A: 1,099; 2024E: 2,225; 2025E: 2,590; 2026E: 2,959 [1]. - **Diluted EPS (Yuan)**: 2022A: 2.195; 2023A: 1.002; 2024E: 2.029; 2025E: 2.361; 2026E: 2.698 [1]. - **ROE (Diluted)**: 2022A: 11.03%; 2023A: 4.90%; 2024E: 9.03%; 2025E: 9.51%; 2026E: 9.80% [1]. - **P/E Ratio**: 2022A: 19.39; 2023A: 42.48; 2024E: 22.22; 2025E: 19.10; 2026E: 16.71 [1]. - **P/B Ratio**: 2022A: 2.14; 2023A: 2.08; 2024E: 2.01; 2025E: 1.82; 2026E: 1.64 [1]. Business Analysis - **Mobile Business**: In H1 2024, mobile camera lens and module shipments increased by 24% and 14% respectively, driven by the recovery in the smartphone market [2]. - **Automotive Business**: The company leads in global market share for automotive lenses, with a 13% increase in shipments and successful development of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) lenses [2]. - **XR Business**: The XR segment showed significant recovery, with the company being the first to mass-produce microLED optical devices, enhancing collaboration with downstream clients [2]. - **Robotics Vision**: The company's AI recognition modules are now widely used in consumer-grade robotics, with successful mass shipments to leading smart lock manufacturers [2].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's mobile phone business has significantly recovered, and the automotive and AR/VR businesses are driving further growth momentum [4] - The company's 24H1 revenue reached 18.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.1% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly, with a 24H1 gross profit of 3.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, and a gross profit margin of 17.2%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company's mobile phone lens and module businesses maintain the top global market share, with product premiumization driving profitability improvements [4] - The company's automotive business continues to advance, and its AR business collaborates with industry-leading customers to create benchmarks [4] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 34.450-75.900 HKD [5] - The Hang Seng Index has shown mixed performance over the past 3 months, with an absolute increase of 3.59% and a relative increase of 14.41% [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 38.617 billion yuan in 2024E to 47.667 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.331 billion yuan in 2024E to 3.320 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 19.3% [5] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 17.7% in 2024E to 18.6% in 2026E [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 9.57% in 2024E to 11.22% in 2026E [5] Business Segments - Mobile phone-related business: Revenue of 13.029 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 34% [3] - Automotive-related business: Revenue of 2.877 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 16% [3] - AR/VR business: Revenue of 992 million yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 111% [3] - Optical components business: Revenue of 5.48 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [3] - Optoelectronic products business: Revenue of 13.191 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [3] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 20x in 2024E to 14x in 2026E [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.90x in 2024E to 1.56x in 2026E [6] - The company's P/S ratio is expected to decrease from 1.20x in 2024E to 0.97x in 2026E [6] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to deliver returns between -10% and 10% relative to the benchmark index [8]