Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its model for China Aluminum (02600) to reflect the latest forecasts for aluminum and alumina prices, resulting in increased net profit predictions for the company from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Net profit forecasts for China Aluminum have been raised by 2%, 4%, and 7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reaching RMB 14 billion, RMB 19.1 billion, and RMB 21.9 billion respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares has been revised upwards from HKD 12.41 to HKD 15.94 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Citigroup anticipates that China Aluminum will benefit from the continuously rising aluminum prices and profit margins [1] - The company remains a top pick recommendation by Citigroup [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Citigroup has updated its model for China Aluminum to reflect the latest forecasts for aluminum and alumina prices, leading to increased net profit projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Citigroup raised the net profit forecast for China Aluminum by 2%, 4%, and 7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, resulting in projected profits of 14 billion, 19.1 billion, and 21.9 billion yuan [1] - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 12.41 HKD to 15.94 HKD, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [1] Group 2 - Citigroup expects China Aluminum to benefit from the continuously rising aluminum prices and profit margins, maintaining its recommendation as a top pick [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.59%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.44%. Bank stocks strengthened, with China Merchants Bank rising nearly 1%, while the non-ferrous metals sector weakened, with China Aluminum dropping over 2%. Tech stocks were sluggish, with Alibaba and Baidu both declining by more than 1% [1] - CITIC Securities believes that due to the internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalyst and external major economies' "fiscal + monetary" dual easing, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to welcome a second round of valuation repair and further earnings recovery by 2026. It suggests focusing on technology, healthcare, resource products, essential consumer goods, paper, and aviation sectors [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that with domestic policy efforts and a weaker US dollar, the Hong Kong stock market may continue to experience a volatile upward trend. The overall profitability of the Hong Kong market is relatively strong, and assets in the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are relatively scarce. Despite several months of consecutive gains, the overall valuation remains low, making long-term allocation cost-effective [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a volatile upward phase, emphasizing the need to maintain dividends as a base and seize the technology growth market in the first half of the year. Potential incremental funds from southbound investments will continue to increase allocation to value dividends. Considering valuations and the AH comparison perspective, southbound funds will generally increase allocation to Hong Kong tech growth stocks, although the tech market will still be influenced by overseas interest rate cuts and US tech market trends, requiring dynamic observation [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities suggests actively going long, as the Hong Kong stock market is expected to start a spring offensive led by the Hang Seng Tech Index. In the medium term, the bull market in Hong Kong stocks will continue into 2026, with earnings and liquidity likely to drive the market. Changes in risk appetite may present a pattern of "rise first, then fall, and rise again" [2] - In the first quarter of 2026, the risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks is expected to "rise first" [2]

Group 1 - The prices of non-ferrous metals are on an upward trend due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply-demand dynamics, and policy support, leading to optimistic performance forecasts for the sector [1][4] - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a new round of mineral exploration actions, achieving significant results during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including the discovery of 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with substantial increases in resources like uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projects an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten major non-ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 2 - Major non-ferrous metal prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, with significant increases reported: London gold up 64.56%, London silver up 147.79%, and LME copper and tin both over 30% [3] - Investment demand, particularly from emerging fields like artificial intelligence and energy storage, is anticipated to drive a new commodity cycle, with industrial metal prices expected to rise further due to ongoing liquidity easing and supply constraints [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen net inflows of 12.981 billion yuan since December 2025, with several companies, including Ganfeng Lithium and Zijin Mining, receiving significant financing [5] Group 3 - Companies such as Chifeng Gold and Zijin Mining have announced positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with Chifeng Gold expecting a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81%, and Zijin Mining projecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [6][7] - Chifeng Gold's expected gold production for 2025 is approximately 14.4 tons, with sales prices rising by about 49%, while Zijin Mining plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120,000 tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver in 2026 [7]

（原标题：中国铝业成立铝基新材料公司，注册资本2.5亿） 企查查APP显示，近日，中铝绿材（文山）铝基新材料有限公司成立，法定代表人为姚建军，注册资本 为2.5亿元，经营范围包含：常用有色金属冶炼；有色金属铸造；有色金属压延加工；有色金属合金制 造等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由中国铝业（601600）旗下中铝（云南）绿色先进铝基材料有限公 司全资持股。 ...

| 基本信息 6 | 法律诉讼 | 经营风险 | | --- | --- | --- | | 工商信息 ● | | | | 工商信息 历史工商信息0 | | | | 企业名称 | 中铝绿材（文山）铝基新材料有限公司 | | | 法定代表人 | 姚 姚建军 怒关联企业 5 | 登记状态 ② | | | | 成立日期 | | 统一社会信用代码 ② | 91532601MAK51KH227 | 注册资本 2 | | 工商注册号 | 532621000254881 | 纳税人识别号 ② | | 营业期限 | 2026-01-05 至 无固定期限 | 纳税人资质 | | 企业类型 | 有限责任公司(法人独资) | 行业 | | 参保人数 - | | 英文名称 | | 登记机关 | 文山市市场监督管理局 | 注册地址 ② | | 经营范围 ② | 一般项目：常用有色金属冶炼；有色金属铸造；有色金属压延加工 | | | | 售。 (除依法须经批准的项目外,凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 | | | 都在用的商业查询工具 | 查公司 | 查老板 查关系 查风险 | | 国家中小企业发展子基金旗下机构 | | 中铝绿材（文山）铝 ...

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，中铝绿材(文山)铝基新材料有限公司成立，法定代表人为姚建军，注册资 本2.5亿人民币，经营范围为常用有色金属冶炼、有色金属铸造、有色金属压延加工、有色金属合金制 造、货物进出口、技术进出口、有色金属合金销售、高性能有色金属及合金材料销售。股东信息显示， 该公司由中国铝业（601600）旗下中铝(云南)绿色先进铝基材料有限公司全资持股。 ...

Group 1 - The copper-aluminum price ratio reached 4.49 on December 29, 2025, marking a new high since 2003, with potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors [2][3] - In the wire and cable industry, aluminum poses a significant substitution threat to copper due to its price advantage and favorable physical properties [2] - New standards related to aluminum heat exchangers are being developed, indicating a shift towards aluminum in HVAC applications [2] Group 2 - There are disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply, with limited short-term capacity expansion due to issues like power supply agreements and infrastructure constraints [3] - A production line in Iceland faced a temporary shutdown, reducing its capacity significantly, and another facility in Mozambique is expected to enter maintenance due to unresolved power supply agreements [3] - The aluminum consumption structure is shifting, with increased demand from transportation and power sectors, and new growth points emerging from data centers and energy storage [4] Group 3 - Domestic and international policy expectations are solidifying the bottom for alumina prices, with the Chinese government emphasizing management and optimization in resource-intensive industries [5] - China's reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, with Guinea being the largest supplier, and potential market interventions could impact alumina pricing [5] - The forecast for domestic aluminum consumption in 2026 is 57.37 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of over 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - Companies to watch include Zhongfu Industrial, Yun Aluminum, and Shenhuo, which are expected to benefit from expanding aluminum profits [6] - China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential rebound in alumina prices and high dividend expectations [6]

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks continued to rise in the morning session, with Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) up by 12.87%, trading at HKD 61.40 [1][2] - China Hongqiao (01378) increased by 3.91%, reaching HKD 36.64 [1][2] - China Aluminum (02600) saw a rise of 3.09%, priced at HKD 13.68 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector continues its upward trend, with significant stock price increases for companies like Nanshan Aluminum International, China Hongqiao, and China Aluminum, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock rose by 12.13% to HKD 61, China Hongqiao increased by 4.08% to HKD 36.7, and China Aluminum gained 3.32% to HKD 13.71 [1] Group 2: Supply Forecast - CICC forecasts that aluminum supply will initially decline before increasing, with a limited overall increment expected; the net increase in electrolytic aluminum for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1.1 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - The anticipated rollout of Indonesia's long-term electrolytic aluminum projects may be slower than expected due to power supply constraints, despite the apparent capacity [1] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with supply-side structural reforms and dual carbon goals effectively closing the expansion channel, leading to increasing supply rigidity [1] - Although there are some supply disruptions overseas, the overall increase in supply is expected to remain limited through 2026 [1] - Geopolitical factors affecting precious metals and copper prices are likely to support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating at a strong level due to low overseas aluminum inventories and supply-side disturbances [1]