港股纸业股继续强势上涨行情，其中，玖龙纸业、晨鸣纸业均涨超7%，均刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨 超3%，阳光纸业跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 4.990 7.31% | | 01812 | 昌鸣纸业 | 1.000 7.53% | | 02314 理文造纸 | | 2.850 3.26% | | 02002 | 阳光纸业 | 1.990 0.51% | v责任编辑：栎树 消息上，据悉，进入8月，造纸行业便迎来一轮涨价潮。玖龙纸业、理文造纸、山鹰国际等龙头企业近 日相继发布涨价函，宣布自8月1日起上调多款产品价格。这已是7月以来包装纸行业发起的第四轮涨 价，显示出行业调价频率明显加快。 日前，广东省造纸行业协会发布《关于推动广东省造纸行业"反内卷"促进行业高质量发展的倡议书》。 浙商证券认为，造纸行业作为产能供需失衡、盈利底部区间的周期行业，有望受益于"反内卷"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has seen its stock price increase by over 6%, reaching HKD 4.98, with a trading volume of HKD 45.85 million, following the successful commissioning of its PM56 production line in Beihai [1]. Company Summary - The PM56 production line, equipped with main machinery from Taiwan's Yuli and a pulp box from Finland's Valmet, has a width of 7250mm and a design speed of 1000m/min, capable of producing 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper annually [1]. - Additionally, Nine Dragons is constructing another cultural paper production line, PM55, which is expected to commence production by the end of this year [1]. Industry Summary - On August 1, Nine Dragons raised the price of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper by HKD 30 per ton, following multiple price increases in July [1]. - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry, characterized by an imbalance in supply and demand and at a profit bottoming phase, is likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1]. - Guotai Junan pointed out that the new national standards have strengthened energy consumption restrictions, particularly impacting existing production capacity, which may favor leading paper companies over smaller ones, potentially catalyzing a new supply-side clearing cycle in the industry [1].

Group 1 - The paper industry in Hong Kong is experiencing a strong upward trend, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Chenming Paper seeing increases of over 7%, reaching new highs [1] - A price increase wave has begun in the paper industry since August, with leading companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Shanying International announcing price hikes effective from August 1 [1] - This marks the fourth round of price increases in the packaging paper sector since July, indicating a significant acceleration in the frequency of industry price adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has issued a proposal to promote high-quality development in the paper industry, advocating for a "de-involution" approach [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry, characterized by an imbalance in supply and demand and operating at a profit bottom, is expected to benefit from the "de-involution" initiative [1]

Group 1 - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 6%, reaching HKD 4.98 with a trading volume of HKD 45.85 million [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (Beihai) successfully launched the PM56 production line, which has a design speed of 1000m/min and an annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper [1] - The company is also constructing another cultural paper production line, PM55, expected to commence production by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - On August 1, Nine Dragons Paper raised the price of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper by HKD 30 per ton, following multiple price increases in July [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the "anti-involution" trend [1] - Guotai Junan noted that the new national standards have strengthened energy consumption restrictions, favoring leading paper companies over smaller competitors, potentially initiating a new supply-side clearing cycle in the industry [1]

Group 1 - Nine Dragons Paper Industries (02689) saw a stock increase of over 6%, reaching HKD 4.98 with a trading volume of HKD 45.85 million [1] - The PM56 production line of Nine Dragons Paper (Beihai) has successfully commenced operations, with a design capacity of 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper annually [1] - The company is also constructing another cultural paper production line, PM55, which is expected to be operational by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - On August 1, Nine Dragons Paper raised the prices of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper by HKD 30 per ton, following multiple price increases in July [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend due to supply-demand imbalances and profitability at the bottom of the cycle [1] - Guotai Junan pointed out that the new national standards have strengthened energy consumption restrictions, favoring leading paper companies with new and old capacity advantages over smaller firms, potentially catalyzing a new supply-side clearing cycle in the industry [1]

Market Overview - US stock indices rebounded, influenced positively by Trump's market support, leading to a 0.68% rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with expectations for two 25 basis point cuts this year [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [1] Domestic Market Sentiment - A-share new account openings in July reached 1.96 million, a 71% year-on-year increase, indicating rising domestic confidence [2] - The stock of Upwind New Materials surged 20% after resuming trading, reigniting market enthusiasm [2] - The steel sector saw a significant rise, with Maanshan Iron & Steel's stock increasing over 15% due to improved loss forecasts and supportive policies [2] Industry Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes [2] - The eleventh batch of centralized drug procurement in China saw a record 45 companies applying for the same drug, intensifying competition in the generic drug market [3] - Investment is shifting towards innovative drugs, with companies like Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of nearly 34% due to promising clinical trials [3] Financial Support for Key Industries - A joint guideline from the central bank and seven departments aims to support financing for key manufacturing sectors, including integrated circuits and medical equipment [4] - AI-related companies like Longi Green Energy and Lenovo's server business are seeing stock increases due to new orders and market interest [4] Gaming Industry Performance - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach RMB 168 billion in sales by the first half of 2025, a 14.08% year-on-year increase [4] - Heartbeat Games anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 37% for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance from self-developed games [4] Individual Company Highlights - Tencent's mobile game "Valorant: Source Action" is set to launch on August 19, with projected annual revenue exceeding RMB 6 billion [5] - Oriental Selection's stock surged nearly 17% ahead of its upcoming financial report, reflecting strong market performance [6] - The Macau gaming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with Morgan Stanley raising its revenue growth forecast for the year from 5% to 10% [6] Technological Advancements - Apple's breakthrough in brain-computer interface (BCI) technology allows users to control devices through thought, indicating a significant market opportunity [7] - The Chinese BCI market is expected to exceed RMB 3.8 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 20% [7] Investment Opportunities - Kelun-Bio has become a top holding in a major fund, indicating strong market confidence in its innovative drug pipeline [8] - The company has established multiple technology platforms and is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with major companies like Lee & Man Paper (02314) and Nine Dragons Paper (02689) raising prices for multiple products starting August 1, indicating a significant acceleration in price adjustments within the sector [1] Industry Summary - The paper industry has initiated its fourth round of price increases since July, primarily affecting packaging paper prices, driven by rising costs of raw materials, energy, and logistics [1] - Year-to-date, the industry has seen two rounds of price hikes in January-March and May, reflecting a pattern of increasing pricing pressure [1] - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has issued a proposal to promote high-quality development in the industry, aiming to counteract excessive competition [1] Company Summary - Major players such as Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper have reported significant stock price increases, with Nine Dragons Paper up 4.06% to HKD 4.61 and Lee & Man Paper up 5.06% to HKD 2.70 [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry, characterized by supply-demand imbalances and profitability at a low point, is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative, which may help stabilize paper prices and improve profitability for leading companies [1] - The current operational status of the paper industry shows a solid bottom, with limited new capacity expected in 2025-2026 and many paper types and operating rates at cyclical lows, suggesting potential for significant valuation elasticity for leading firms if prices return to reasonable levels [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00731 建发新胜 | | 0.208 | 6.67% | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 4.620 4.29% | | | 02314 理文造纸 | | 2.680 | 4.28% | 今年以来，造纸企业已在1月—3月和5月进行过两轮提价，而本轮主要是包装纸价格上涨。原材料、能 源及物流等成本上升成为此轮涨价的主要推动因素。业界认为，纸企近期连番发涨价函拉涨纸品出厂价 格，可看作是包装纸行业对今年以来不断下探的市场行情的一次"反攻"。 此次涨价潮对造纸行业上市公司而言，短期内有助于缓解成本压力，但长期的行业健康发展仍需解决产 能过剩、需求提振以及规范市场竞争等多方面问题。(格隆汇) 消息上，刚进入8月，造纸行业便迎来一轮涨价潮。玖龙纸业、理文造纸、山鹰国际等龙头企业近日相 继发布涨价函，宣布自8月1日起上调多款产品价格。这已是7月以来包装纸行业发起的第四轮涨价，显 示出行业调价频率明显加快。 港股纸业股盘初拉升上涨，其中，建发新胜涨近7%，玖龙纸业、理文造纸涨4.3%。 ...

Group 1: Price Increases in the Paper Industry - The price of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper has been raised by 30 yuan/ton, with all weights of recycled paper, corrugated paper, and tube paper uniformly increased by 50 yuan/ton starting from August [1] - Since early July, major paper companies like Nine Dragons Paper have announced multiple price hikes due to supply constraints caused by unusual weather affecting waste paper collection [1][4] - The average price of waste yellow board paper reached 1482 yuan/ton in late July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The paper industry is facing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with new production capacity expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024, while consumption growth is only projected at 1.5% [5][6] - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has issued a "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative to combat low-price competition and promote rational business practices [2][8] - The industry is experiencing historical low profit margins, with an overall profit of only 520 billion yuan projected for 2024, translating to a profit margin of 3%-5% [6] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - Major companies are focusing on strategic transformations, such as Sun Paper's integrated "forest-pulp-paper" model and Xianhe's significant investments in raw materials [10] - The industry is encouraged to shift from price competition to quality, service, and innovation competition to enhance competitiveness [10] - There is a need for clearer policy frameworks to address overcapacity and promote sustainable practices within the industry [10]

Price Trends - The price of waste paper has increased from 0.3 yuan per jin to 0.4-0.5 yuan per jin, leading to a rise in the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper by 30-50 yuan per ton due to increased costs [1][3] - Despite the price increases in packaging paper, prices for paper types made from pulp, such as white card paper and cultural paper, have been declining due to excess capacity and insufficient demand [1][7] Industry Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a negative cycle where expanding production does not lead to profitability, as companies feel pressured to expand to maintain market share [2] - The domestic paper industry is projected to add over 10 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2024, while demand growth is expected to be only 1.5% in 2024, leading to significant supply-demand imbalances [8] Cost Pressures - Rising operational costs have prompted multiple price increase notices from companies like Nine Dragons Paper, with the latest being the sixth notice in July alone [3][4] - The increase in waste paper prices due to heavy rainfall has contributed to the cost pressures faced by paper manufacturers [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs to the packaging sector remains uncertain due to weak terminal demand, leading to competitive pricing among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, with some companies reporting losses while others are barely breaking even [12] Future Outlook - The paper prices are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year, with companies focusing on cost management to maintain profit margins [14] - The industry is likely to see further consolidation as smaller companies may struggle to survive in the current environment, leading to a potential increase in market share for larger firms [12][13]