晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 "十五五"规划部署在即，市场延续节前活跃状态——A 股市场投资策略周 报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 长假消费平稳增长，维持对包装纸行业乐观判断——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业 10 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 （2）9 月非制造业商务活动指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 50.0%，位于分界点。分行业来看，9 月建筑业商务活 动景气度小幅回升了 0.2 个百分点至 49.3%，继续位于收缩区间。服务业商务活动指数则受暑期效应消退影 ...

Industry Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR year-on-year for September. Mid-range and high-end hotels are outperforming economy hotels, and business demand is showing a clear upward trend. The upcoming holiday period is expected to see an increase in both volume and pricing, with RevPAR projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year [2] - In the real estate sector, the top 100 companies have a total land acquisition amount of 727.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. The growth rate has expanded by 8.7 percentage points compared to the previous months. In September, some real estate companies acquired large-scale land through purchases, with state-owned enterprises dominating the land acquisition [2] - Several packaging paper companies have announced a new round of price increases, with some companies issuing price increase notices for corrugated paper and other types of packaging paper ten times since August, with each increase ranging from 300 to 500 yuan per ton. The demand surge during the holiday season, combined with rising raw material prices, is driving up the cost of paper [2] Company Developments - BYD reported September sales of 396,300 new energy vehicles, a decrease from 419,400 units in the same month last year [3] - Xpeng Motors delivered 41,581 new vehicles in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10%, achieving a record monthly delivery of over 40,000 units [3] - Leap Motor achieved a new delivery record of 66,657 units, with a year-on-year growth of over 97%, marking the first time monthly sales exceeded 60,000 units [3] - Li Auto delivered 33,951 new vehicles, while Lantu delivered 15,224 units. NIO delivered 34,749 new vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64% [3] - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 40,000 units, and Zeekr delivered 51,159 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3] Regulatory Updates - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has received applications for stablecoin licenses from 36 institutions, including banks, tech companies, and payment agencies. The authority aims to review these applications and announce the first batch of stablecoin issuers by early next year, with a high threshold for license issuance [4]

晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益 数据点评 固定收益研究 初看 REITs 的投资机会（系列四）：收益视角——固定收益专题报告 基金研究 主动偏股基金经理市场状态"能力圈"研究——基金专题报告 金融工程研究 证 支持向量机在量化金融中的应用——金融工程专题报告 券 公司研究 研 内修主业稳健发展，优质资产注入可期——中国稀土（000831）深度报告 究 行业研究 报 包装纸提价向下游扩散，美国关税政策再生变化——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - In Q2 2025, the A-share market exhibited a "revenue growth without profit growth" characteristic, with a revenue growth rate of 0.5% and a net profit growth rate of 1.4% compared to Q1 2025, indicating a decline in profit margins [3][4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board showed relative strength, with improvements in both revenue and net profit growth rates, while large-cap stocks represented by the CSI 300 index demonstrated significant profit growth challenges [4][5] - The TMT sector maintained a relatively high level of net profit growth despite some marginal declines, reflecting the ongoing prosperity of the AI industry chain [4][5] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating ongoing policy support for A-share liquidity [6][7] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a shift of household deposits towards the A-share market, which is expected to continue driving market performance [7][8] - Institutional investor participation has increased significantly, with insurance funds accelerating their investments in the stock market, contributing to the overall liquidity [7][8] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Insights - In August, the issuance rates for high-grade bonds increased while mid-to-low-grade bonds saw a decline, with overall changes ranging from -5 basis points to +3 basis points [9][11] - The credit bond market experienced a decrease in net financing, with various types of bonds showing mixed performance, but high-grade long-term bonds are highlighted for their investment value [9][11] - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market expected to positively influence bond valuations [11][12] Group 4: Fund Market Dynamics - In August, the public fund market saw a significant increase in new fund issuance, with 80 new funds launched, raising a total of 454.70 billion yuan [13][15] - The performance of large-cap growth funds outperformed value funds, with the large-cap growth style rising by 15.45% [15] - The ETF market experienced substantial inflows, particularly in cross-border ETFs, indicating strong investor interest [19] Group 5: Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The Chinese traditional medicine market is projected to exceed 480 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6%, supported by favorable policies and increasing international recognition [20][21] - Tianjin's traditional medicine industry has shown significant growth, with an industrial output value of 14.225 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 12.5% year-on-year increase [21][23] - Key companies in Tianjin's traditional medicine sector, such as Tianjin Tasly Pharmaceutical and others, are actively expanding their market presence and innovation capabilities [21][23] Group 6: Light Industry and Textile Sector - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of leading companies in the sector [24][25] - The packaging paper prices are anticipated to continue rising, benefiting companies in the sector and improving their profitability [25][26] - The light industry and textile sectors have faced challenges, with performance lagging behind the broader market indices [24][25]

Group 1: Fund Research - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board performed outstandingly, with the Communication and Electronics sectors leading the industry [3] - The major indices in the equity market continued to rise, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 13.31% and the ChiNext Index rising over 5% [3] - All 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Comprehensive, Computer, and Beauty Care [3] Group 2: Company Research - Aima Technology (603529) - Aima Technology reported a revenue of 13.031 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.04%, and a net profit of 1.213 billion yuan, up 27.56% [9] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 19.25% and 9.49%, respectively, with significant growth in operating cash flow, which increased by 123.03% to 2.586 billion yuan [9][12] - Aima's product development strategy focuses on differentiation by addressing market demand and consumption scenarios, leading to a diverse product portfolio [12] Group 3: Company Research - Tuosida (300607) - Tuosida's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.086 billion yuan, a decline of 36.98%, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, down 19.75% [16] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product business growth, with industrial robot revenue increasing by 22.55% and CNC machine tool revenue rising by 83.74% [16] - The company anticipates a turnaround in profitability as it continues to divest from low-margin project-based businesses [17] Group 4: Industry Research - Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The price of packaging paper has strengthened, with corrugated paper and boxboard prices rising by 180 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton, respectively, since the end of July [6][8] - The performance of companies benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, such as soft home furnishings and electric two-wheelers, showed significant growth in their mid-year reports [8] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.36 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 1.67 percentage points [7][8]

Report Date - The report is dated August 12, 2025 [1] Industry News - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension this year as the international oil price rose first and then fell during the current pricing cycle, with the estimated increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 20 yuan/ton, below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [3] - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3] - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. announced that it will no longer require overseas central bank institutions to provide a commitment letter for agreement signing to simplify the investment process for overseas central bank institutions in the market [3] - From August 4 - 10, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3] - Recently, the "anti - involution" trend in the paper industry has led to four price increases by packaging paper manufacturers within a month. Hebei Chensong will increase the price of its original shafts and reel paper by 100 yuan/ton starting from August 11, cancel oral orders, require orders to be accompanied by payment, and will not accept prepayments [4] Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PP, and PVC [5] - Night - time performance: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.95%, precious metals by 27.12%, oilseeds by 12.60%, non - ferrous metals by 20.90%, soft commodities by 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 15.08%, energy by 3.44%, chemicals by 11.39%, grains by 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products by 2.89% [5] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [7] Large - Class Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% daily, 2.08% monthly, and 8.82% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% daily, rose 0.79% monthly, and 8.63% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19% daily, 0.35% monthly, and 23.92% year - to - date, etc. [8] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.01% monthly, and fell 0.39% year - to - date; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 0.66% year - to - date [8] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.55% daily, fell 1.90% monthly, and 0.89% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.17% daily, fell 8.47% monthly, and 11.90% year - to - date [8] - Other: The US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, fell 1.78% monthly, and 9.42% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.39% monthly, and 12.68% year - to - date [8]

Market Overview - US stock indices rebounded, influenced positively by Trump's market support, leading to a 0.68% rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with expectations for two 25 basis point cuts this year [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [1] Domestic Market Sentiment - A-share new account openings in July reached 1.96 million, a 71% year-on-year increase, indicating rising domestic confidence [2] - The stock of Upwind New Materials surged 20% after resuming trading, reigniting market enthusiasm [2] - The steel sector saw a significant rise, with Maanshan Iron & Steel's stock increasing over 15% due to improved loss forecasts and supportive policies [2] Industry Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes [2] - The eleventh batch of centralized drug procurement in China saw a record 45 companies applying for the same drug, intensifying competition in the generic drug market [3] - Investment is shifting towards innovative drugs, with companies like Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of nearly 34% due to promising clinical trials [3] Financial Support for Key Industries - A joint guideline from the central bank and seven departments aims to support financing for key manufacturing sectors, including integrated circuits and medical equipment [4] - AI-related companies like Longi Green Energy and Lenovo's server business are seeing stock increases due to new orders and market interest [4] Gaming Industry Performance - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach RMB 168 billion in sales by the first half of 2025, a 14.08% year-on-year increase [4] - Heartbeat Games anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 37% for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance from self-developed games [4] Individual Company Highlights - Tencent's mobile game "Valorant: Source Action" is set to launch on August 19, with projected annual revenue exceeding RMB 6 billion [5] - Oriental Selection's stock surged nearly 17% ahead of its upcoming financial report, reflecting strong market performance [6] - The Macau gaming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with Morgan Stanley raising its revenue growth forecast for the year from 5% to 10% [6] Technological Advancements - Apple's breakthrough in brain-computer interface (BCI) technology allows users to control devices through thought, indicating a significant market opportunity [7] - The Chinese BCI market is expected to exceed RMB 3.8 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 20% [7] Investment Opportunities - Kelun-Bio has become a top holding in a major fund, indicating strong market confidence in its innovative drug pipeline [8] - The company has established multiple technology platforms and is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2025 [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter revenue met expectations, with a goal of achieving $6 billion in EBITDA by 2027 [6][7] - Adjusted operating earnings per share for the second quarter was $0.20, down from $0.23 in the first quarter [27] - Free cash flow for the second quarter was $54 million, with expectations for the full year ranging from $100 million to $300 million [25][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Packaging Solutions North America, on-time delivery improved from 92% to 97% [15] - Volume in Packaging Solutions North America was seasonally higher, while EMEA experienced lower volumes due to market softness [23][36] - The company expects to achieve a run rate of approximately $650 million in commercial excellence benefits by the end of the year [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industry demand in North America remained stable but softer than the previous year, with expectations for stable box demand in the third quarter [11][12] - EMEA box shipments slowed by approximately 1% in the second quarter, but June showed signs of recovery [13] - The company anticipates a moderate increase in demand in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal growth in fast-moving consumer goods [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformational journey, deploying the "eightytwenty" strategy to drive improvements and synergies [7][8] - Strategic decisions include closing and selling facilities to reduce complexity and minimize costs [18][20] - The company aims to build a pure play packaging business, emphasizing stability and predictability [67] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing mill reliability issues, attributing them to years of underinvestment and emphasizing the need for consistent capital reinvestment [48][90] - The outlook for North America is positive, with expectations of closing the gap to industry standards by the fourth quarter [12][56] - In Europe, the company is experiencing variability due to market conditions, but remains committed to achieving its EBITDA targets [66][68] Other Important Information - The company has proposed to close five UK plants, which is expected to yield approximately $25 million in savings [19] - The strategic review of the global Southern Fibers business is ongoing, with no changes to the expected timeline [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about mill reliability issues - Management acknowledged that mill reliability issues have been building for years due to underinvestment and emphasized the need for consistent capital reinvestment [48][49] Question: Outlook for North America and EMEA - Management expressed confidence in North America, citing improvements in commercial operations and the potential for growth, while acknowledging the challenges in Europe due to market conditions [56][62] Question: July box volumes and customer inventories - Management indicated that the market remains relatively flat, with cautious customer behavior and no significant evidence of restocking anticipated [72][74] Question: Opportunities for accelerating reinvestment in mills - Management stated that while there is a focus on mill reliability, the ability to accelerate reinvestment is constrained by the need to prioritize strategic assets [90][92] Question: Update on exiting non-strategic export markets - Management confirmed progress in exiting non-strategic export markets, emphasizing that not all export is detrimental [94]

Core Viewpoint - The handling of used cardboard boxes after unpacking is crucial for the green transformation of the express delivery industry, with initiatives like recycling programs being implemented in universities and supported by new regulations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Development - The express delivery industry in China has seen rapid growth, with the volume expected to reach 175 billion packages in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for 11 consecutive years [1]. - The revised "Express Delivery Temporary Regulations" effective from June 1 aims to address packaging issues by clarifying responsibilities across various stakeholders, including businesses and government [1][3]. Group 2: Recycling Initiatives - Zhejiang University has implemented a "green box" program for nearly a decade, recycling cardboard boxes and significantly reducing carbon emissions [1][4]. - The university's postal service stations handle over 820 million packages annually, with a daily recycling capacity of over 200 boxes at a single station [4][11]. Group 3: Policy and Regulation - The "Zhejiang Province Express Industry Promotion Regulations," effective from March 1, 2022, encourages the use of recyclable packaging and aims to reduce excessive packaging [3][4]. - Future policies will promote the establishment of recycling facilities in various locations and incentivize users to reuse packaging through rewards [5][12]. Group 4: Corporate Practices - Companies like Jingxing Packaging Materials focus on recycling waste cardboard, with a closed-loop system that transforms waste into new packaging materials, significantly reducing resource waste [8][9]. - Jingxing Paper has achieved a recycling rate of over 200 million tons of waste paper annually, contributing to a green and low-carbon development model [9][11]. Group 5: Market Impact - In 2024, Zhejiang's express delivery business volume surpassed 30 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, and a significant increase in the reuse of old cardboard boxes [11][12]. - The proportion of e-commerce packages without secondary packaging reached 95.83%, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices [11].