晨会纪要（2025/08/26） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.26） 基金研究 科创板表现突出，通信、电子领涨行业——公募基金周报 公司研究 半年度业绩增长良好，产品差异化助力巩固市场地位——爱玛科技（603529） 2025 年半年报点评 战略转型持续推进，期待公司业绩拐点——拓斯达（300607）2025 年中报点 评 行业研究 证 包装纸价走强，以旧换新受益领域中报业绩向好——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/08/26） 基金研究 科创板表现突出，通信、电子领涨行业——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周，权益市场主要指数延续上涨，其中，涨幅最大的是科创 50，上涨 13.31%，创业板指涨幅超过 5%。 行 ...

Report Date - The report is dated August 12, 2025 [1] Industry News - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension this year as the international oil price rose first and then fell during the current pricing cycle, with the estimated increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 20 yuan/ton, below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [3] - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3] - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. announced that it will no longer require overseas central bank institutions to provide a commitment letter for agreement signing to simplify the investment process for overseas central bank institutions in the market [3] - From August 4 - 10, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3] - Recently, the "anti - involution" trend in the paper industry has led to four price increases by packaging paper manufacturers within a month. Hebei Chensong will increase the price of its original shafts and reel paper by 100 yuan/ton starting from August 11, cancel oral orders, require orders to be accompanied by payment, and will not accept prepayments [4] Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PP, and PVC [5] - Night - time performance: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.95%, precious metals by 27.12%, oilseeds by 12.60%, non - ferrous metals by 20.90%, soft commodities by 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 15.08%, energy by 3.44%, chemicals by 11.39%, grains by 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products by 2.89% [5] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [7] Large - Class Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% daily, 2.08% monthly, and 8.82% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% daily, rose 0.79% monthly, and 8.63% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19% daily, 0.35% monthly, and 23.92% year - to - date, etc. [8] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.01% monthly, and fell 0.39% year - to - date; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 0.66% year - to - date [8] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.55% daily, fell 1.90% monthly, and 0.89% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.17% daily, fell 8.47% monthly, and 11.90% year - to - date [8] - Other: The US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, fell 1.78% monthly, and 9.42% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.39% monthly, and 12.68% year - to - date [8]

Market Overview - US stock indices rebounded, influenced positively by Trump's market support, leading to a 0.68% rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with expectations for two 25 basis point cuts this year [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [1] Domestic Market Sentiment - A-share new account openings in July reached 1.96 million, a 71% year-on-year increase, indicating rising domestic confidence [2] - The stock of Upwind New Materials surged 20% after resuming trading, reigniting market enthusiasm [2] - The steel sector saw a significant rise, with Maanshan Iron & Steel's stock increasing over 15% due to improved loss forecasts and supportive policies [2] Industry Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes [2] - The eleventh batch of centralized drug procurement in China saw a record 45 companies applying for the same drug, intensifying competition in the generic drug market [3] - Investment is shifting towards innovative drugs, with companies like Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of nearly 34% due to promising clinical trials [3] Financial Support for Key Industries - A joint guideline from the central bank and seven departments aims to support financing for key manufacturing sectors, including integrated circuits and medical equipment [4] - AI-related companies like Longi Green Energy and Lenovo's server business are seeing stock increases due to new orders and market interest [4] Gaming Industry Performance - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach RMB 168 billion in sales by the first half of 2025, a 14.08% year-on-year increase [4] - Heartbeat Games anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 37% for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance from self-developed games [4] Individual Company Highlights - Tencent's mobile game "Valorant: Source Action" is set to launch on August 19, with projected annual revenue exceeding RMB 6 billion [5] - Oriental Selection's stock surged nearly 17% ahead of its upcoming financial report, reflecting strong market performance [6] - The Macau gaming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with Morgan Stanley raising its revenue growth forecast for the year from 5% to 10% [6] Technological Advancements - Apple's breakthrough in brain-computer interface (BCI) technology allows users to control devices through thought, indicating a significant market opportunity [7] - The Chinese BCI market is expected to exceed RMB 3.8 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 20% [7] Investment Opportunities - Kelun-Bio has become a top holding in a major fund, indicating strong market confidence in its innovative drug pipeline [8] - The company has established multiple technology platforms and is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2025 [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter revenue met expectations, with a goal of achieving $6 billion in EBITDA by 2027 [6][7] - Adjusted operating earnings per share for the second quarter was $0.20, down from $0.23 in the first quarter [27] - Free cash flow for the second quarter was $54 million, with expectations for the full year ranging from $100 million to $300 million [25][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Packaging Solutions North America, on-time delivery improved from 92% to 97% [15] - Volume in Packaging Solutions North America was seasonally higher, while EMEA experienced lower volumes due to market softness [23][36] - The company expects to achieve a run rate of approximately $650 million in commercial excellence benefits by the end of the year [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industry demand in North America remained stable but softer than the previous year, with expectations for stable box demand in the third quarter [11][12] - EMEA box shipments slowed by approximately 1% in the second quarter, but June showed signs of recovery [13] - The company anticipates a moderate increase in demand in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal growth in fast-moving consumer goods [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformational journey, deploying the "eightytwenty" strategy to drive improvements and synergies [7][8] - Strategic decisions include closing and selling facilities to reduce complexity and minimize costs [18][20] - The company aims to build a pure play packaging business, emphasizing stability and predictability [67] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing mill reliability issues, attributing them to years of underinvestment and emphasizing the need for consistent capital reinvestment [48][90] - The outlook for North America is positive, with expectations of closing the gap to industry standards by the fourth quarter [12][56] - In Europe, the company is experiencing variability due to market conditions, but remains committed to achieving its EBITDA targets [66][68] Other Important Information - The company has proposed to close five UK plants, which is expected to yield approximately $25 million in savings [19] - The strategic review of the global Southern Fibers business is ongoing, with no changes to the expected timeline [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about mill reliability issues - Management acknowledged that mill reliability issues have been building for years due to underinvestment and emphasized the need for consistent capital reinvestment [48][49] Question: Outlook for North America and EMEA - Management expressed confidence in North America, citing improvements in commercial operations and the potential for growth, while acknowledging the challenges in Europe due to market conditions [56][62] Question: July box volumes and customer inventories - Management indicated that the market remains relatively flat, with cautious customer behavior and no significant evidence of restocking anticipated [72][74] Question: Opportunities for accelerating reinvestment in mills - Management stated that while there is a focus on mill reliability, the ability to accelerate reinvestment is constrained by the need to prioritize strategic assets [90][92] Question: Update on exiting non-strategic export markets - Management confirmed progress in exiting non-strategic export markets, emphasizing that not all export is detrimental [94]

Core Viewpoint - The handling of used cardboard boxes after unpacking is crucial for the green transformation of the express delivery industry, with initiatives like recycling programs being implemented in universities and supported by new regulations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Development - The express delivery industry in China has seen rapid growth, with the volume expected to reach 175 billion packages in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for 11 consecutive years [1]. - The revised "Express Delivery Temporary Regulations" effective from June 1 aims to address packaging issues by clarifying responsibilities across various stakeholders, including businesses and government [1][3]. Group 2: Recycling Initiatives - Zhejiang University has implemented a "green box" program for nearly a decade, recycling cardboard boxes and significantly reducing carbon emissions [1][4]. - The university's postal service stations handle over 820 million packages annually, with a daily recycling capacity of over 200 boxes at a single station [4][11]. Group 3: Policy and Regulation - The "Zhejiang Province Express Industry Promotion Regulations," effective from March 1, 2022, encourages the use of recyclable packaging and aims to reduce excessive packaging [3][4]. - Future policies will promote the establishment of recycling facilities in various locations and incentivize users to reuse packaging through rewards [5][12]. Group 4: Corporate Practices - Companies like Jingxing Packaging Materials focus on recycling waste cardboard, with a closed-loop system that transforms waste into new packaging materials, significantly reducing resource waste [8][9]. - Jingxing Paper has achieved a recycling rate of over 200 million tons of waste paper annually, contributing to a green and low-carbon development model [9][11]. Group 5: Market Impact - In 2024, Zhejiang's express delivery business volume surpassed 30 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, and a significant increase in the reuse of old cardboard boxes [11][12]. - The proportion of e-commerce packages without secondary packaging reached 95.83%, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices [11].