Price Trends - The price of waste paper has increased from 0.3 yuan per jin to 0.4-0.5 yuan per jin, leading to a rise in the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper by 30-50 yuan per ton due to increased costs [1][3] - Despite the price increases in packaging paper, prices for paper types made from pulp, such as white card paper and cultural paper, have been declining due to excess capacity and insufficient demand [1][7] Industry Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a negative cycle where expanding production does not lead to profitability, as companies feel pressured to expand to maintain market share [2] - The domestic paper industry is projected to add over 10 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2024, while demand growth is expected to be only 1.5% in 2024, leading to significant supply-demand imbalances [8] Cost Pressures - Rising operational costs have prompted multiple price increase notices from companies like Nine Dragons Paper, with the latest being the sixth notice in July alone [3][4] - The increase in waste paper prices due to heavy rainfall has contributed to the cost pressures faced by paper manufacturers [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs to the packaging sector remains uncertain due to weak terminal demand, leading to competitive pricing among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, with some companies reporting losses while others are barely breaking even [12] Future Outlook - The paper prices are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year, with companies focusing on cost management to maintain profit margins [14] - The industry is likely to see further consolidation as smaller companies may struggle to survive in the current environment, leading to a potential increase in market share for larger firms [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of the first "anti-involution" initiative, aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing structural overcapacity issues in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, emphasizing the need to resist low-price competition and maintain market order [1][6]. - The initiative encourages companies to set prices based on actual costs, reasonable profits, and market demand, aiming to protect the overall value of the industry [1][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite steady growth in consumption for certain paper types like corrugated paper and household paper, overall capacity expansion has outpaced demand growth, leading to low utilization rates, with some types below 55% [4]. - The industry is facing a prolonged supply-demand imbalance, characterized by declining operating rates and slow inventory reduction, indicating a typical cyclical bottom phase [6][9]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - Several paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price increases due to rising costs, marking the fourth round of price hikes in July alone [7]. - The overall paper industry has been under significant pricing pressure, with major paper types experiencing price declines since 2021, reflecting weak market demand and overcapacity [7][9]. Group 4: Institutional Focus - Institutions are focusing on companies like Sun Paper, which has integrated pulp and paper production, and others in the sector that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative and potential market restructuring [10][13]. - Analysts suggest monitoring companies that are diversifying product lines and those with integrated operations, as the industry may see improvements in profitability due to reduced competition and optimized capacity [10][13].

Group 1 - As of August 1, 2023, Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689.HK) closed at HKD 4.480, a 3.7% increase from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of HKD 4.660, marking a nearly one-year high [1] - On that day, the net inflow of funds was HKD 18.74 million, with no specific data on the amount of funds flowing in and out [1] Group 2 - Nine Dragons Paper was established in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006 and is currently the world's largest paper manufacturing group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [2] - The company has a designed annual production capacity of over 20 million tons and employs more than 20,000 people [2] - Nine Dragons Paper has production bases in various locations across China, including Dongguan, Taicang, Chongqing, Tianjin, Leshan, Quanzhou, Shenyang, Hebei, and Hubei, and is constructing a pulp and paper base in Beihai, Guangxi [2] - The company actively responds to the "Belt and Road" initiative, promoting international development and enhancing its industrial chain [2] - In 2008, Nine Dragons acquired and took control of the Zhengyang Paper Mill in Vietnam, entering the ASEAN market, and expanded its Vietnam base in 2017 [2] - To further enhance international resource allocation, the company acquired four pulp mills in the United States in 2018 and a pulp mill in Malaysia in 2019, with plans for a new intelligent paper manufacturing base in Selangor [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02689 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

据悉，江津作为重庆工业强区，聚集5000余家企业，产业聚集度高达98.4%。区内已形成废纸回收、造 纸到包装成品的完整产业链——仅本地废纸年供应量即超百万吨，配套企业集群使运输成本降低20%； 枢纽优势赋能：坐拥西部陆海新通道主枢纽地位，江津"水公铁"多式联运体系将企业辐射半径几何级放 大。 玖龙纸业(02689)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.63%，报4.52港元，成交额4299.04万港元。 消息面上，据纸引未来网报道，近日，玖龙纸业60亿元林浆纸一体化智能工厂项目正式签约重庆枢纽港 产业园。据介绍，西南地区纸包装需求旺盛，却长期受制于原料短板。高昂的进口纸浆物流成本与本地 规模化绿色浆源的缺失，成为区域造纸业发展的紧箍咒。玖龙纸业此次落子，以"浆纸一体化"模式直击 行业痛点：一期建设70万吨绿色制浆生产线，实现原料自主；二期规划100万吨高档纸生产线，完善产 业链闭环；智能物流加持：项目紧邻长江货运码头(直线距离)。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，玖龙纸业(02689)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.63%，报4.52港元，成交额4299.04万港 元。 消息面上，据纸引未来网报道，近日，玖龙纸业60亿元林浆纸一体化智能工厂项目正式签约重庆枢纽港 产业园。据介绍，西南地区纸包装需求旺盛，却长期受制于原料短板。高昂的进口纸浆物流成本与本地 规模化绿色浆源的缺失，成为区域造纸业发展的紧箍咒。玖龙纸业此次落子，以"浆纸一体化"模式直击 行业痛点：一期建设70万吨绿色制浆生产线，实现原料自主；二期规划100万吨高档纸生产线，完善产 业链闭环；智能物流加持：项目紧邻长江货运码头(直线距离)。 据悉，江津作为重庆工业强区，聚集5000余家企业，产业聚集度高达98.4%。区内已形成废纸回收、造 纸到包装成品的完整产业链——仅本地废纸年供应量即超百万吨，配套企业集群使运输成本降低20%； 枢纽优势赋能：坐拥西部陆海新通道主枢纽地位，江津"水公铁"多式联运体系将企业辐射半径几何级放 大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase driven by rising raw material costs, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper and others adjusting their prices in response to market conditions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Nine Dragons Paper has raised the price of corrugated paper multiple times since July, with a recent increase of 30 yuan/ton effective August 1 [1][3]. - Other companies, including Shanying International and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have also announced similar price hikes of 30 yuan/ton starting August 1 [4]. - The average price of recycled old corrugated paper in China reached 1482 yuan/ton as of July 23, marking a 2.75% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The paper industry is facing an imbalance between supply and demand, with new production capacity exceeding 10 million tons from 2023 to 2024, while consumption growth is projected at only 1.5% [5]. - Companies have previously engaged in price competition to capture limited market share, leading to "involution" within the industry [2][5]. Group 3: Anti-Involution Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued a proposal to combat low-price competition and promote high-quality development in the industry [2][5][6]. - The initiative calls for companies to avoid below-cost dumping, adhere to fair pricing based on actual costs, and comply with relevant laws to maintain market order [6][7]. - Companies are encouraged to shift their focus from price competition to quality, service, and innovation, aiming to enhance product performance and develop high-value-added products [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while raw material prices may continue to rise due to tight supply, there could be a potential easing in August as high temperatures subside, possibly leading to a recovery in profit margins for the corrugated paper industry [4][7]. - The ongoing price increases and the anti-involution initiative represent a strategic response by companies to navigate cost pressures and seek sustainable growth [7].

Industry Overview - Guangdong Province is the second-largest paper-producing province in China, with a projected paper and board output of 26.48 million tons in 2024, marking an 8.1% year-on-year increase and accounting for 16.7% of the national total [1] - The production of packaging paper constitutes 72.3% of the total output, with key products including boxboard and corrugated paper [1] Market Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes of 30 yuan per ton for products such as corrugated paper and recycled cardboard starting August 1 [1][3] - The frequency of price adjustments has notably increased this year, with multiple announcements made in March-April, May, and July [1] Cost Factors - Rising raw material costs are a primary driver of the recent price increases, with the market price for waste yellow board paper reaching 1,475 yuan per ton as of July 21, reflecting a 15 yuan increase since June 30 [2] - The packaging paper sector, particularly the corrugated and boxboard markets, has faced a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a downward price trend earlier this year [2] Profitability and Performance - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper and boxboard sectors have declined, with the corrugated paper industry reporting a gross margin of 9.97%, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, and the boxboard industry at 18.96%, down 1.24 percentage points [2] Strategic Initiatives - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued a "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative aimed at promoting high-quality development in the industry, advocating for fair market practices, capacity optimization, quality enhancement, and industry self-regulation [4] Company Insights - Morning Paper (晨鸣纸业) anticipates a significant loss of 3.5 to 4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to production halts, impacting revenue and profit [6] - Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) is expected to see a 58% year-on-year increase in core profit to 811 million yuan, with a stable revenue forecast of approximately 28.78 billion yuan [6] - Lee & Man Paper (理文造纸) is a global leader in paper production with an annual capacity exceeding 9 million tons, reporting total revenue of 24.073 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.216 billion yuan as of 2024 [7]

Industry Overview - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, aiming to promote high-quality development by resisting low-price competition, optimizing capacity structure, enhancing quality and innovation, and establishing self-regulatory mechanisms [1] - Guangdong is the second-largest paper-producing province in China, with a projected paper and board output of 26.48 million tons in 2024, an 8.1% year-on-year increase, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [1] - The packaging paper segment constitutes 72.3% of the total output, with main products including boxboard and corrugated paper [1] Price Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes of 30 yuan per ton for products such as corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1 [2] - The frequency of price adjustments has increased significantly this year, with multiple price hikes occurring in March-April, May, and July [2] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for waste cardboard, have been a primary driver of these price increases, with the market price for waste yellow cardboard reaching 1,475 yuan per ton as of July 21, a 15 yuan increase from June 30 [2] Market Dynamics - The packaging paper market, particularly for corrugated and boxboard paper, has faced a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a downward price trend in the first half of the year [3] - The average price for corrugated paper was 2,682 yuan per ton, down 2.44% year-on-year, while boxboard paper averaged 3,616 yuan per ton, down 3.42% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries have declined, with margins at 9.97% and 18.96% respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [3] Company Performance - Chenming Paper has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2025, expecting a net loss of 3.5 to 4 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 28.65 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to production halts for maintenance [4] - Nine Dragons Paper has received an upgrade from Citigroup, which anticipates a 58% year-on-year increase in core profit to 811 million yuan, with revenue expected to remain stable at approximately 28.782 billion yuan [4] - Lee & Man Paper is a global leader in the paper industry, with an annual production capacity exceeding 9 million tons, including 7 million tons of packaging paper [5]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a series of price increases driven by rising costs, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard starting August 1, 2023 [2][4][5] Group 1: Price Increases - Multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, marking the fourth round of price hikes this year, with Nine Dragons Paper leading the charge [3][4] - The price increase for corrugated and recycled cardboard is set at 30 yuan per ton, following previous hikes earlier in July [3][4] - The overall trend shows that paper companies have raised prices in March-April, May, and July, indicating a pattern of frequent adjustments in response to cost pressures [4][5] Group 2: Cost Pressures - The primary reason for the price hikes is the tightening supply of raw materials, particularly waste paper, which has significantly increased operational costs for paper manufacturers [2][4] - The average market price for waste yellow board paper as of July 23, 2023, was 1482 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs through the supply chain remains uncertain due to weak demand and excess supply, leading to competitive pricing pressures among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected consumption growth rate of only 1.5% for paper products in 2024, while new production capacity is expected to exceed 10 million tons [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Leading paper companies are focusing on enhancing their core competitiveness through increased R&D investment, full industry chain layout, and collaboration with downstream partners [7] - Companies like Xianhe Co. and Sun Paper are investing heavily in raw material sourcing and production capacity to strengthen their market position and reduce operational costs [7]