Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.89% at 26,622.88 points and a total trading volume of HKD 309.1 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%, closing at 6,324.25 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.62% to 9,454.12 points [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Alibaba (09988) saw a notable increase of 4.14%, closing at HKD 173.4, contributing 104.49 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditure for FY2026-2028 from RMB 100-108 billion to RMB 130-135 billion, citing growth in Alibaba Cloud [2] - Other blue-chip stocks like New Oriental (09901) and Zijin Mining (02899) also performed well, with increases of 7.86% and 5.86% respectively [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally rose, with Kuaishou and Alibaba both up over 4%, while Xiaomi saw a decline of 2.01% [3] - The financial sector showed strong performance, with Huatai Securities (06886) up 12.55% and other major brokerages also experiencing significant gains [3] - The metals sector performed well, with stocks like Zhaojin Mining (01818) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rising by 6.68% and 6.55% respectively [4][5] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to boost credit and investment in the financial sector [4] - The A-share margin trading balance reached a historical high, indicating increased trading activity and potential for growth in brokerage earnings [4] Emerging Trends - The demand for energy storage is strong, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity and orders extending into next year [7] - The new energy storage installation target for 2027 is set at 180 million kilowatts, which is expected to drive an investment of approximately RMB 250 billion [7] - The gaming and tourism sectors are anticipated to benefit from the upcoming National Day holiday, with hotel occupancy rates nearing 90% [8] Notable Stock Movements - Ubiquitous Robotics (09880) reported a significant contract worth RMB 30 million for its humanoid robots, indicating strong demand in the robotics sector [6] - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical (02105) saw an increase of 11.16% after positive results from its obesity treatment trials [10] - Xiaomi (01810) faced a decline of 2.01% due to a downward revision in expected shipments for its 17 series smartphones [11]

今日（9月29日），港股市场迎来强劲反弹。截至收盘，恒生指数报收于26622.88点，上涨494.86点，涨幅1.89%；恒生科技指数大涨129.14点，收盘报 6324.25点，涨幅2.08%。 资金方面，尽管港股表现强劲，但南向资金态度明显谨慎。截至收盘，南向资金累计净卖出超16亿港元。而在上周，南向资金累计净买入港股约440亿港 元。分析人士认为，尽管净卖出金额不算太多，但短期南向资金出现净卖出，可能与国庆中秋长假有关。由于A股将要休市8天，这期间港股通服务也将随 之关闭，直到10月9日A股恢复交易，港股通才会重新开启。因此，部分南向资金可能会在节前选择暂时离场，避免节日期间港股可能出现的波动。 焦点板块方面，中资券商股全线爆发。其中，华泰证券（06886.HK）、广发证券（01776.HK）、申万宏源香港（00218.HK）涨超12%，中信证券 （06030.HK）、东方证券（03958.HK）涨超11%，中州证券（01375.HK）、中国银河（06881.HK）、中金公司（03908.HK）涨超9%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股普涨，阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）、快手-W（01024.HK）涨超4 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH premium rates for various stocks as of September 29, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading with a premium rate of 918.87% [1] - The article also provides a detailed ranking of stocks based on their deviation values, indicating significant discrepancies between H-shares and A-shares [1] AH Premium Rate Rankings - Northeast Electric (00042) has the highest AH premium rate at 918.87%, followed by Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 229.34% and Hongye Futures (03678) at 225.06% [1] - The lowest AH premium rates are recorded for Ningde Times (03750) at -12.99%, followed by Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -3.55% and China Merchants Bank (03968) at 4.26% [1] Deviation Value Rankings - The top three stocks with the highest deviation values are Northeast Electric (00042) at 116.65%, Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) at 40.35%, and Jihong Co. (02603) at 33.97% [1] - Conversely, the stocks with the lowest deviation values include Qin Port Co. (03369) at -25.11%, Longyuan Power (00916) at -23.75%, and Beijing Machinery (00187) at -17.02% [1] Additional Insights - The article includes a detailed table of the top ten and bottom ten AH stocks based on premium rates and deviation values, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market situation [1][2] - The data is generated based on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and reflects the current market dynamics, indicating potential investment opportunities and market inefficiencies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong lithium battery concept stocks have shown significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Company Performance - Zhongxin Innovation (03931.HK) increased by 10.67%, reaching HKD 34.24 [1] - Tianneng Power (00819.HK) rose by 7.27%, trading at HKD 8.85 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) saw a rise of 4.19%, with a price of HKD 38.86 [1] - CATL (03750.HK) experienced a 3.3% increase, priced at HKD 548 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，锂电池概念股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中创新航(03931)涨10.67%，报34.24港元；天 能动力(00819)涨7.27%，报8.85港元；赣锋锂业(01772)涨4.19%，报38.86港元；宁德时代(03750)涨 3.3%，报548港元。 中信建投证券表示，继续看好储能、锂电板块景气度抬升。当前核心矛盾为储能需求持续性是否能够带 动2026年需求预期在20%的增速上继续上修，关注四季度储能招标、11月底电池企业要货预期以及2026 年电动车以旧换新政策及锂电排产情况。 消息面上，据央视财经报道，目前国内储能电芯的需求十分强劲。头部电池企业均表示工厂已处于满产 状态，一些订单已经排到明年年初。此外，根据《专项行动方案》提出的目标，到2027年，中国新型储 能装机规模将达到1.8亿千瓦以上，这将拉动新增项目投资约2500亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand for domestic energy storage cells, leading to significant stock price increases for lithium battery concept stocks [1] - Major battery companies are operating at full capacity, with some orders already scheduled into early next year [1] - According to the "Special Action Plan," China's new energy storage installation capacity is expected to exceed 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving an additional investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, emphasizing the importance of sustained energy storage demand [1] - The current key concern is whether the sustained demand for energy storage can support an upward revision of the 20% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming energy storage bidding in the fourth quarter, the expected battery orders by the end of November, and the 2026 electric vehicle replacement policy along with lithium battery production plans [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium - **Key Players**: CATL, Rio Tinto, Sigma, Sinomine, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Lithium Price Adjustments**: - Lithium prices have been downgraded due to a shorter-than-expected outage at CATL, with spodumene prices reduced by 7-12% and lithium chemical prices by 4-10% for CY25-26E. However, a sequential increase of 17-32% in lithium prices is anticipated in CY26 [1][5][8]. 2. **Chinese Supply Disruption**: - Recent investigations into mining licenses in China indicate that the disruption risk is less severe than previously anticipated. The Jianxiawo mine, which contributes approximately 5% of supply, may reopen sooner than expected, potentially by the end of CY25 or March 2026 [2][5]. 3. **Global Supply Dynamics**: - Rio Tinto's Galaxy project has been delayed to 2030, while Sigma's Groto do Cirilo output estimates have been trimmed from 60/70kt to 40/70kt for 2025/26E. High-cost petalite supply from Zimbabwe could add 1-3% to global lithium supply [3]. 4. **Demand Trends**: - Global EV sales grew by 22% year-over-year in July, with China leading at 23% growth. North America saw a 15% increase, while Europe experienced a 48% rise in EV sales. The total battery energy storage system (BESS) project pipeline is projected to grow by 98% year-over-year [4][67]. 5. **Market Balance and Future Outlook**: - The lithium market is expected to be balanced or in slight deficit by 2028, with less severe supply disruptions in China leading to a more favorable supply-demand outlook [18]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Inventory Trends**: - Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) inventory in China has remained flat, while LiOH inventory is declining, indicating potential destocking as peak demand approaches [59][63][66]. 2. **BESS Project Pipeline**: - The global BESS project pipeline is substantial, with approximately 1.7TWh capacity expected from 2025 to 2030, highlighting the growing demand for energy storage solutions [67]. 3. **Investment Risks**: - The report emphasizes inherent risks in the resource sector, including commodity price fluctuations and political risks, which could significantly impact industry performance [77]. 4. **Analyst Ratings and Recommendations**: - The report includes various analyst certifications and disclosures, indicating the potential for conflicts of interest and the importance of considering multiple factors in investment decisions [78][79]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the lithium industry, price adjustments, supply dynamics, demand trends, and future outlook.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 September 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery & Materials CATL saw the highest sequential growth; October production outlook The Chinese battery value chain has rallied by 45-155% from August 1st ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions as of September 19 are ZTE Corporation (00763) at 15.35%, COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) at 14.10%, and CATL (03750) at 13.44% [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute increase in short positions are China Education Holdings (00839) with an increase of 2.61%, Dongfang Electric (01072) with an increase of 2.06%, and Xiexin Technology (03800) also with an increase of 2.06% [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute decrease in short positions are Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with a decrease of -2.52%, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) with a decrease of -1.77%, and Laikai Pharmaceutical-B (02105) with a decrease of -1.72% [1][2] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that ZTE Corporation maintained 116 million shares, COSCO Shipping Holdings had 406 million shares, and CATL had 20.95 million shares [2] - The companies with the largest increase in short positions include China Education Holdings, which rose from 3.73% to 6.33%, and Dongfang Electric, which rose from 7.34% to 9.40% [2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions include Hua Hong Semiconductor, which fell from 9.00% to 6.48%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, which fell from 3.30% to 1.53% [2][3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the top three and bottom three AH premium rates for various stocks, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at a premium rate of 900.00% [1] - The top three stocks with the highest deviation values are Northeast Electric (00042) at 102.08%, Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) at 43.54%, and Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 31.64% [1] - The bottom three stocks with the lowest deviation values include Qin Port Co. (03369) at -23.64%, Longyuan Power (00916) at -15.36%, and Goldwind Technology (02208) at -14.92% [1] Group 2 - The top ten AH stocks by premium rate include Northeast Electric (00042), Hongye Futures (03678), and Zhejiang Shibao (01057) [1] - The bottom ten AH stocks by premium rate include Ningde Times (03750) with a premium rate of -14.11%, followed by Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -0.86% [1] - The article provides detailed tables showing the premium rates and deviation values for both top and bottom AH stocks, indicating significant disparities in market valuation [1][2]