Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report is "Overweight" [3][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the technology and leadership position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL) in the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) battery markets, emphasizing its ability to maintain resilient profits despite pricing pressures in the supply chain [11][16]. - The price target for CATL is set at Rmb370.00 for June 2026, based on a projected P/E ratio of 20x for 2026E-27E, which is at the lower end of the company's historical trading range due to slower industry growth compared to earlier stages [12][17]. Financial Estimates - For FY25E, net sales are projected at Rmb404,942 million with a year-over-year growth of 12% [5]. - The gross profit for FY25E is estimated at Rmb99,220 million, maintaining a gross margin of 25% [5]. - The adjusted net income for FY25E is forecasted to be Rmb61,861 million, reflecting a net profit growth of 22% year-over-year [5][20]. Performance Drivers - The report identifies various performance drivers, including market factors contributing 27%, regional factors at 23%, and macroeconomic factors at 13% [13]. - The correlation of CATL's performance with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is noted at 0.62 over six months and 0.53 over one year [13]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating an expected revenue growth of 19.7% for FY26E and an EBITDA margin of 25.5% for the same year [14]. - The adjusted P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.8 in FY24A to 12.4 in FY27E, reflecting a more favorable valuation over time [14][20].

Group 1 - The number of IPOs in Hong Kong has significantly increased in the first half of 2025, with A-share companies also increasingly announcing plans to list in Hong Kong [1] - In Q2 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) surpassed NASDAQ in terms of fundraising scale, achieving a net fundraising amount of HKD 1,067.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 688.56% [2][3] - Despite having fewer IPOs than NASDAQ in Q2 (27 vs. 83), the fundraising amount from Hong Kong IPOs reached HKD 880.44 billion, exceeding NASDAQ's USD 9.5 billion (approximately HKD 744.94 billion) [3] Group 2 - The number of Chinese companies listing in the US has increased, with 40 companies going public in the first half of 2025, up from 25 in the same period last year. However, the total fundraising amount decreased by 59.73% to USD 7.45 billion [4] - The largest fundraising in A-shares during the first half of 2025 was from Zhongce Rubber, which raised RMB 39.33 billion, followed by Tianyouwei and Yingshi Innovation [5] - The largest IPO in the US was from Venture Global, raising USD 1.67 billion, while the largest in Hong Kong was CATL, raising HKD 353.31 billion (approximately USD 45.01 billion) [7] Group 3 - The best-performing new stocks in A-shares this year include Jiangnan New Materials with a cumulative increase of 419.29%, followed by Haibosichuang and Tianhe Magnetic Materials [8] - In the US market, the top-performing new stocks include Diginex with a cumulative increase of 584.00%, followed by Anbio and CoreWeave [8] - In Hong Kong, the best-performing new stock is Gu Ming, with a cumulative increase of 158.06% [8] Group 4 - The number of companies queued for IPOs in Hong Kong for the second half of 2025 has significantly increased, with at least 8 companies confirmed to list in July and August [9] - From June 27 to June 30, 23 companies submitted applications for the first time on the HKEX, including several A-share companies [9] - The influx of new listings may lead to differentiated performance based on the flow of funds and the quality of the companies, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis over speculative trading [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL A/H shares, with a 12-month price target of Rmb323.00 for CATL A shares and HK$343.00 for CATL H shares, indicating an upside potential of 27.8% and 5.7% respectively [1][4][20]. Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7, equipped with CATL batteries, is expected to bolster CATL's product mix improvement and drive growth in Qilin battery penetration starting in the second half of 2025 [2][26]. - Xiaomi has become CATL's largest high-end battery customer, contributing approximately 50% of Qilin and Shenxing installations in Q1 2025, with projections indicating significant growth in battery supply to Xiaomi in the coming years [3][31]. - The report emphasizes that product mix improvement is crucial for CATL's unit profit expansion, which has been undervalued by the market [4][38]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - CATL's market capitalization is Rmb1.2 trillion (approximately $160.7 billion), with an enterprise value of Rmb881.8 billion (approximately $123.0 billion) [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb362 billion in 2024 to Rmb588 billion by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from Rmb77.5 billion to Rmb143 billion over the same period [5][18]. - EPS is expected to rise from Rmb11.58 in 2024 to Rmb22.49 in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][18]. Growth and Margins - Total revenue growth is forecasted at -9.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 20.4% growth in 2025 and 22.1% in 2026 [13]. - EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 21.4% in 2024 to 24.3% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]. Competitive Position - CATL is projected to maintain a significant market share in the EV battery sector, with Xiaomi closing the gap with top competitors like Tesla and Geely [28][30]. - The report highlights that CATL's high-end NCM battery, Qilin, is expected to see a resurgence in penetration, alleviating pressures from lower-priced LFP battery competition [2][24].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that CATL will benefit from the launch of Xiaomi's YU7, which will improve its product mix and maintain a buy rating [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Impact - Xiaomi officially launched the YU7 on June 26, featuring CATL's flagship high-end NCM battery (Kirin battery) in the YU7 Max version, while the standard and Pro versions are equipped with CATL's high-end LFP battery (Shenxing battery) [1] - The penetration rate of CATL's Kirin battery is expected to recover in the second half of the year with the introduction of new electric vehicle models like the Xiaomi YU7, alleviating the negative impact from the low-priced LFP battery penetration [1] Group 2: Sales Projections and Financial Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of HKD 343 for CATL, estimating that CATL will supply approximately 31 GWh and 56 GWh of batteries to Xiaomi in 2025 and 2026, respectively, accounting for 5% and 7% of CATL's total sales [1] - The year-on-year growth for these sales is projected to be around 200% and 80%, with approximately 40% of the supplied batteries being Kirin batteries [1]

大摩周期会议：金融、快递、汽车行业更新，宁德时代重新覆盖 20250625 摘要 中国金融监管已从严监管转向促发展阶段，人民币国际化和金融开放将 对金融体系产生积极影响，例如取消 5 万美元从内地回香港的审查，增 加香港流动性，稳定币政策支持香港试点地位。 金融防风险告一段落，贷款、存款及其他金融资产利率理性化，减少过 度低利率对市场的不利影响，利好金融和保险板块，但长期投资收益率 仍需关注，利率企稳和市场化定价将产生正面反馈。 资本市场鼓励消费企业上市，简化注册流程，香港 IPO 市场显著改善， 国内可能回归鼓励资本市场发展的新常态，消费金融领域合理定价有助 于解决过度追求低利率导致的发展放缓问题，金融资产收益水平逐渐筑 底。 看好金融板块，尤其是保险板块和港交所，奇富科技（QFIN）受益于消 费金融发展的支持，合理定价将打消投资者对监管及定价担忧，贸易战 缓和有望恢复贷款增速。 三花智控 2025 年收入增速预计达到 15%，受益于家电以旧换新补贴及 出口提单，但 2026 年增速将放缓至低个位数，长期来看，全球电动车 渗透率上升仍能实现 10%到 20%的收入增速。 随着金融防风险告一段落，大风险可控情 ...

25 June 2025 | 2:27AM HKT CATL (300750.SZ) Unlocking value through unit GP expansion; reinstate on A-share and initiate H-share at Buy | 300750.SZ | 12m Price Target: Rmb323.00 | Price: Rmb245.92 | Upside: 31.3% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3750.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$343.00 | Price: HK$303.00 | Upside: 13.2% | 3. Robust earnings growth: We project a robust 25% EPS CAGR from 2024-2030E, driven by a combination of volume growth and unit GP expansion. Catalysts: 1) Positive quarterly earnings that indicat ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market, driven by multiple factors including interest rate cuts, policy support, and improved investor sentiment [1][2][10] - As of June 18, 2025, there are over 160 companies queued for IPOs in Hong Kong, with more than 90% of these companies coming from mainland China [1][2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has seen a significant increase in IPO activities, with a projected 40 companies expected to go public in the first half of 2025, raising approximately $14 billion, which accounts for 24% of the global total [2][3] Group 2 - The average fundraising amount for IPOs in Hong Kong has increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of over 500%, marking the second-highest level in the past decade [2][3] - The report indicates that the biotechnology and health sectors are particularly active, with 11 IPOs each in these sectors, tying with retail and consumer industries for the highest number [2][3] - The trend of A-share listed companies seeking dual listings in Hong Kong is notable, with an average fundraising amount close to 10 billion HKD for these IPOs [3][4] Group 3 - The HKEX has implemented several policy measures to facilitate mainland companies' listings, including optimizing listing criteria for technology companies and expediting the approval process for eligible A-share companies [6][7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced five measures to support leading mainland enterprises in listing in Hong Kong, enhancing the financing channels for these companies [7][8] - The influx of mainland companies into the Hong Kong market is expected to improve the overall quality and diversity of listed companies, particularly in technology and innovation sectors [5][9] Group 4 - International investors are increasingly recognizing the value of Chinese assets, with a growing trend of foreign capital flowing into the Hong Kong market [9][10] - The HKEX is enhancing its trading mechanisms and product offerings to attract international capital, including establishing offices in major global financial centers [10][11] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, with expectations of continued activity in the second half of 2025, particularly from large enterprises and technology-related sectors [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Huizhou EVE Energy Co., Ltd. is planning to launch an H-share issuance to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to break the "duopoly" in the lithium battery industry and enhance its global presence [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - EVE Energy ranks ninth globally in power battery installation volume and second in energy storage cell shipments [2] - The company has expanded its business into three major areas: consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage batteries, with production capacities established in Hungary, Malaysia, and the United States [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, EVE Energy reported a 37.34% year-on-year increase in revenue to 12.796 billion yuan, while net profit only grew by 3.32%, indicating pressure on profitability due to price wars and heavy asset expansion [3] - The company's operating costs increased by 37.45%, surpassing revenue growth, leading to a significant decline in core business profitability [3] - Total liabilities rose from 59.891 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 67.249 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 12.28% increase, with accounts receivable reaching 12.808 billion yuan, representing 314.26% of net profit [3] Group 3: Market Context and Strategic Implications - The upcoming H-share fundraising could potentially raise around 30 billion HKD, which would support the production of new facilities and help manage increased costs from EU regulations [4] - EVE Energy's A-share price-to-earnings ratio of 21.56 times may face pressure due to the lower average P/E ratios in the Hong Kong battery sector, raising concerns about valuation adjustments [4][5] - The company's strategy to diversify into multiple technology routes may lead to resource dilution, which will require time to evaluate its effectiveness [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with EVE Energy's energy storage battery shipments increasing by 80.54% and power battery shipments by 57.58% [3] - The trend of dual-platform financing (A+H shares) is becoming common among lithium battery companies, with several peers already listed in Hong Kong [4][5] - The global narrative surrounding the industry reflects collective anxiety among Chinese new energy companies, as they face challenges from international competitors and regulatory pressures [6][7]

以下文章来源于阿尔法工场Green ，作者芊芊 阿尔法工场Green . 聚焦清洁能源行业，提供最新的绿色能源公司资讯、技术创新和ESG行业趋势。 作 者 | 芊芊 来源 | 阿尔法工场Green 导 语： 亿纬锂能要维持"二线龙头"命定地位并有效抵御"黑天鹅"冲击，未雨绸缪、广集资金水源已是当务之急。 " A+H"第二股亿纬锂能（300014.SZ）港股IPO消息发布后，资本市场并未如对待宁德时代（300750.SZ/03750.HK） 那般反响热烈。 与宁德时代港股IPO盛况相比，其"不缺钱也要上港股"的逻辑，并不适用于同为电池巨头的亿纬锂能。 业内人士认为，市场之所以反应平淡，一方面与目前锂电行业增长放缓有关，另一方面也凸显投资者对公司潜在资金 压力的深度关切。 对亿纬锂能而言，此次港股募资行动至关重要，说是"续命"也不为过。 所谓"续命"，并非指公司已面临生死存亡。亿纬锂能账上现金134亿元，维持正常经营尚无近忧。 然而，着眼于增长布局、核心客户稳定性与下一代技术迭代激烈竞争，亿纬锂能想要维持"二线龙头"命定地位并有效 抵御"黑天鹅"冲击，未雨绸缪、广集资金水源已是当务之急。 6月9日晚，亿纬锂能公告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of leading A-share companies listing on H-shares is gaining momentum, with several companies successfully completing their listings in Hong Kong, enhancing their international market presence and brand recognition [1][2]. Group 1: H-share Listing Trend - Leading companies like Midea Group, CATL, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical have recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a growing trend among A-share companies to seek H-share listings [1]. - Stone Technology announced its intention to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, further contributing to the ongoing "H-share boom" [2]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors face a dilemma regarding whether to invest in A-shares or H-shares of companies listed on both exchanges, as each market has distinct advantages and disadvantages [2]. - Analysts highlight that H-shares generally trade at a discount compared to A-shares due to differences in investor structure, liquidity, and refinancing mechanisms [3][5]. Group 3: Price Discrepancies - The long-term price discrepancy between A-shares and H-shares is attributed to the lack of free convertibility and arbitrage mechanisms between the two markets [3]. - Currently, only 155 companies are listed on both A and H-shares, representing a small fraction of the total number of companies on the Hong Kong main board [5][6]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - The majority of companies listed on both exchanges are state-owned enterprises and belong to traditional economic sectors, such as finance and energy, which tend to attract dividend-focused investors [6]. - The analysis suggests that the price differences between A and H-shares can be better understood through a dividend perspective rather than purely market sentiment [6]. Group 5: Recent Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "A-H share price inversion" has been observed, particularly with companies like CATL, where H-shares traded at a premium to A-shares, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7][9]. - The current macroeconomic environment and differing investor preferences contribute to the observed price behaviors between A and H-shares [9][10]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Companies like Stone Technology, which have a significant portion of their revenue from overseas markets, are expected to attract foreign investment and may experience similar price dynamics as seen with CATL [12][13]. - The ongoing trend of high dividend yields in the Hong Kong market, coupled with structural opportunities in sectors like new consumption and technology, positions H-shares favorably for investors [16][17].