Group 1 - Fitch has adjusted the rating outlook of five Chinese state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank to stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is tightening control over cashless transactions, leading to a significant reduction in cardless cash services across multiple banks [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Policy Changes - China Merchants Bank announced it will stop ATM QR code deposit services starting April 9, 2025, to enhance customer safety and convenience [2]. - Over 30 banks, including major state-owned and joint-stock banks, have adjusted or closed cardless cash services in the past year, indicating a broader trend in the industry [3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Cost Considerations - The tightening of cardless cash services is primarily driven by financial risk concerns, as these services can lead to potential financial risks for banks [3]. - The operational costs associated with maintaining ATM systems and managing cardless cash services are also a factor in the decision to scale back these offerings [3]. Group 3: Customer Reactions and Usage Patterns - Customer responses to the cancellation of cardless services are mixed; while some prefer the convenience of QR code transactions, many still opt for traditional card usage [4]. - The demographic using ATM services tends to be older individuals who are more accustomed to using physical cards, indicating a potential gap in service adaptation among different age groups [6]. Group 4: Security Concerns - Experts highlight that the security of QR code deposits is relatively low, contributing to the decision to discontinue cardless cash services [4][5]. - The potential for identity verification issues and the risk of money laundering are significant concerns that banks must address in their cash handling processes [6].

近期，招商银行公布了2024年财报，本文结合2024年财报及近五年数据对招商银行分析如下： 一、增速放慢，同业相比依然优异 截至 2024 年末，招商银行总资产达到 12.15 万亿元 ，同比增长 10.19% ；当年实现营业收入 3374.88 亿元 ， 同比下降 0.48% ；实现净利润 1495.59 亿元 ，同比增加 1.05% 。在营业收入下降的情 况下，净利润保持增长，盈利能力较好。 受银行业整体增速放缓的大环境影响，纵向看招商银行自身规模类指标近年来增速有所慢。 营业 收入连续两年负增长；净利润增速五年来最低 。 但与同业相比招商银行 2024 年成绩依然优异。 与 六大行 相比，招商银行 2024 年末总资产同比增长 10.19% ，远高于 六大行 。且在总资产远小 于邮储银行和 交通银行 的情况下，实现净利润则远高于这两家大行。 2024 年招商银行的年化平均总资 产收益率（ ROA ）基本 是 交通银行 和邮储银行的 2 倍甚至以上 ， 且也远高于" 四大行 " ，展现了其 极强的获利能力 。 招商银行无论是不良率还是拨备覆盖率在同业中均 仍处优异水平 。不良率远低于除邮储银行外的 六大行 ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 你有多久没用过ATM扫码存款了？ 日前，招商银行发布公告称， 该行将于4月9日起停止ATM扫码存款服务 ，后续，客户可持银行卡，通过招商银行ATM或前往该行营业网点办理存款业 务。 近年来， 多家银行都在收紧无卡存取款业务 。谈及调整此类业务的原因，多家银行表示，是基于优化金融服务、风险管理以及成本效率等方面的考量。 01 近一年来，超50家银行暂停各类无卡业务 据不完全统计，近一年来已经有超过50家银行机构宣布，停止无卡存款、无卡取款、扫描取款等各类业务。 去年三、四月份 多家国有大行率先作出调整 比如， 工商银行 率先表示，其个人手机银行无卡取现功能已于去年4月17日起暂停服务，客户可通过ATM机手机银行扫码取现功能提取现金，或在ATM机 上插卡提现。 交通银行 随后发布公告称，于2024年5月24日起停止个人手机银行无卡取款功能中的预约取款服务。客户仍可通过交通银行智能机具办理有卡取款、扫码 取款或前往银行营业网点办理取款业务。 去年下半年 多家股份行、头部城商行持续跟进 去年6月4日， 民生银行 发布公告称，将于2024年6月7日起停止个人手机银行"ATM无卡取现"功能，现金机 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the banking industry, specifically focusing on the 23 listed banks in the United States and their financial metrics for the year 2024 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The listed banks achieved an average revenue growth of 1.8% year-on-year for 2024, which is an improvement of 0.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2023. However, the net interest income for the year decreased by 2.3% [1][2]. 2. **Commission Income Recovery**: The banks experienced a 9.3% year-on-year recovery in commission net income, although retail financial demand remains weak, impacting overall income [2][3]. 3. **Debt Market Contribution**: The trading segment of banks contributed significantly to revenue, with a 28% increase in related income for the year, partially offsetting revenue pressures [2][3]. 4. **Asset Growth and Loan Performance**: By the end of 2024, the asset growth rate for listed banks decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 7.2%, while loan growth fell by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7% [4][5]. 5. **Interest Margin Pressure**: The pricing of assets is expected to continue influencing the interest margin levels, with ongoing negative impacts likely to keep margins under pressure [5][6]. 6. **Asset Quality Stability**: The overall asset quality of the banking sector remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a coverage ratio of 236%, although specific sectors like retail and real estate are under scrutiny for potential risks [5][6][8]. 7. **Real Estate Loan Performance**: Among the 16 banks, 11 reported a decrease in the non-performing loan ratio for real estate loans, with notable exceptions like Zhengzhou Bank, which saw an increase to 9.55% [8][9]. 8. **Dividend Policies**: Citic Bank reported the largest increase in dividend payout ratio, rising by 30.5% in 2024. The overall stability of dividend rates is expected to be maintained, providing a focus on shareholder value [10][11]. 9. **Investment Opportunities**: Recommendations include focusing on regional banks benefiting from policy effectiveness and economic recovery, as well as high-dividend stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China [11]. Other Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and consumer financial demand, which are critical for future growth and risk assessment in the banking sector [7][9]. - The potential for policy changes affecting the real estate market and overall economic recovery was emphasized as a key factor for future performance [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on China's banking industry is profound, leading to additional pressure on loan demand and net interest margins, while asset quality remains stable. The investment value of bank stocks is highlighted, particularly for large banks, China Merchants Bank, and quality city commercial banks [7][12][14] Summary by Sections 1. Impact Mechanism of "Reciprocal Tariffs" on Bank Stocks - The economic impact includes weakened external demand, pressuring the credit demand and asset quality of banks [12][14] - Policy measures may boost retail credit demand through increased monetary easing [12][14] - Investment sentiment shifts towards banks due to enhanced dividend value amidst rising risk aversion [12][14] 2. Credit Demand: Pressure Points and Support - Economic growth pressure leads to declining credit growth, with a potential credit increment shortfall of CNY 2.139 billion in 2025 [15][19] - Export-related customer demand is expected to decline, while consumption-related customers may receive support from policy measures [27][28] 3. Net Interest Margin: Pressure Points and Support - A decline in credit growth could lead to a 14 basis points drop in net interest margins [33] - Monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, may exert additional pressure on margins [33][34] - The long-term outlook suggests that net interest margins are nearing their bottom, estimated at 1.24% [39][46] 4. Asset Quality: Pressure Points and Support - The impact on asset quality is manageable, with export-related sectors facing direct effects from tariffs [48] - The real estate sector's pressure is expected to ease, while retail sector non-performing loans may improve under supportive policies [48] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the dividend characteristics of bank stocks, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [7][12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Several banks in China are discontinuing cardless deposit and withdrawal services, indicating a shift towards more secure and efficient banking methods as technology evolves [1][3][5]. Group 1: Bank Actions - China Merchants Bank announced it will stop ATM QR code deposit services starting April 9, 2025 [1]. - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications, have already suspended various cardless withdrawal services since 2023 [3]. - Smaller banks, such as Qixia Rural Commercial Bank and Laizhou Rural Commercial Bank, have also begun to phase out cardless withdrawal functionalities as of December 1, 2023 [4]. Group 2: Technology and User Behavior - The rise of mobile banking and QR code payments has led to a decline in the usage of ATM QR code deposit functions, which are now seen as less convenient compared to newer technologies like facial recognition [5][7]. - Analysts suggest that the majority of ATM users are older individuals who prefer traditional card-based transactions, indicating a potential gap in user adoption for newer technologies [7]. Group 3: Security Concerns - Experts highlight security risks associated with cardless transactions, such as the inability to verify the identity of depositors and potential vulnerabilities in confirming the relationship between the payer and payee [7]. - The discontinuation of cardless services is viewed as a necessary step to enhance the security of banking operations and to comply with regulations aimed at preventing money laundering [7].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is revising the "Securities Investment Fund Custody Business Management Measures" to address industry issues and promote the standardized and professional development of the custody industry, thereby supporting the high-quality development of the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Issues - The current custody industry is highly concentrated, with national commercial banks and a few securities companies holding approximately 80% to 90% of public and private securities investment funds [2]. - Some institutions are engaging in activities outside the core business of "securities investment fund" custody, necessitating a clarification of business boundaries [3]. - Certain custody institutions are failing to fulfill their responsibilities adequately, as evidenced by private fund default incidents, highlighting the need for enhanced regulatory requirements [3]. - The existing market exit mechanism is inadequate, lacking clear standards for "non-business" activities, which leads to risks of unauthorized operations [4]. - The current regulations do not fully align with the needs of industry innovation, indicating a need for specific policies for specialized custody subsidiaries [5]. Group 2: Key Measures for Development - The revised measures will enhance entry thresholds by strengthening requirements for substantial operational capabilities and compliance risk management [6]. - There will be a focus on substantial operations and risk isolation, requiring applicants to commit to core responsibilities and ensuring the separation of fund assets from other custody assets [7]. - Custodians will be held accountable for verifying information provided by fund managers and must disclose risks adequately, with clear responsibilities for reporting and settlement [7]. - The exit mechanism will be improved by adding conditions for license cancellation, ensuring an orderly market mechanism [7]. - High-quality custody institutions will be allowed to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries dedicated to custody business, subject to relevant financial regulatory requirements [8]. Group 3: Industry Context and Growth - As of the end of the first quarter of this year, there are 73 institutions with custody qualifications, and the total assets under custody for public funds exceed 33 trillion yuan [9]. - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with a custody scale of 4.48 trillion yuan, holding a market share of 13.78% [9]. - The overall principle of the revision is to ensure stringent entry, focus on core business, enforce responsibilities, and promote innovation, aiming to enhance the custody industry's standardization and professionalism [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated changes in industry prosperity by 2025, emphasizing the need for proactive measures in response to economic challenges and the evolving global landscape [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The monetary policy report for Q4 2024 indicates a balanced approach to internal and external factors, suggesting adjustments as necessary [3]. - Economic data from early 2025 shows a stable start supported by policy measures, with seasonal price declines noted in February [3]. - The impact of tariffs is still unfolding, with import and export data from January to February 2025 reflecting this uncertainty [3]. Capital Market Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve may resume easing policies, as indicated by CPI inflation data from early 2025, which shows persistent low inflation [4]. - The overall trend in A-shares is neutral to slightly bullish, with a focus on the long-term value of technology stocks [8]. Industry Commentary - The market reform for new energy grid prices is expected to stabilize revenue expectations, with operational strategies becoming a key competitive factor [11]. - The real estate market shows a weak rebound in new housing, while second-hand housing remains strong in key cities [11]. - The economic transformation driven by AI innovations, such as those from DeepSeek, is highlighted as a significant growth area [11]. - Consumer spending during the Spring Festival indicates a steady recovery, particularly in the film industry [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 annual reports of listed banks reveal significant performance salary clawbacks, with a total amount exceeding 113 million yuan across nine banks, indicating a growing trend in enforcing accountability in executive compensation [1][4]. Summary by Category Performance Salary Clawbacks - Nine listed banks have disclosed their performance salary clawback situations in their 2024 annual reports, including major banks like Bank of China, Zhejiang Commercial Bank, and Bohai Bank [1][4]. - The total amount of clawbacks reported by these banks exceeds 113 million yuan, with Bank of China leading at 32.5 million yuan [1][4]. - The average clawback amount per person was highest at Bohai Bank, reaching 39,264.71 yuan, while Bank of China and Harbin Bank also reported significant average clawbacks exceeding 10,000 yuan [2][4]. Year-on-Year Comparison - Compared to 2023, several banks, including China Merchants Bank and Weihai Bank, did not disclose specific clawback amounts for 2024, despite having reported significant figures in the previous year [6]. - In 2023, China Merchants Bank had the highest clawback amount at 43.29 million yuan, affecting 4,415 employees with an average clawback of approximately 9,805 yuan [6]. Disclosure Trends - Zhejiang Commercial Bank and Zhongyuan Bank disclosed specific clawback amounts for the first time in 2024, indicating an improvement in transparency [7]. - Bohai Bank and Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank have consistently disclosed their clawback amounts for three consecutive years, showing a commitment to accountability [5][6]. Regulatory Context - The regulatory framework for performance salary clawbacks has been strengthened over the years, with guidelines established by the former China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [10][11]. - As of 2023, over 95% of banking institutions have implemented performance salary clawback mechanisms, reflecting a significant shift towards more robust governance in the banking sector [11].