Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

Group 1 - UBS reports that industrial metal prices are supported by positive macroeconomic factors, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in AI trade, and China's anti-involution policies along with potential additional stimulus measures from China [1] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with the risk of a significant short-term demand slowdown diminishing, while the medium-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remain attractive [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for this year and next by 3%, from $4.24 and $4.68 per pound to $4.37 and $4.80 respectively, due to limited supply growth and recovering traditional demand [1] Group 2 - UBS has increased its earnings estimates for Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) by 4%, 5%, and 5% respectively for this year, and by 9%, 6%, and 5% for next year [2] - The firm has also raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao, Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) by 5% to 8% for next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently trading at 12.85 HKD with a transaction volume of 574 million HKD, driven by strong resource assets and positive market outlook [1] Group 1: Company Assets and Resources - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The acquisition of the Ecuador Cangrejos gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource portfolio and is projected to start production before 2029, with an annual gold output of 11.5 tons [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has issued a report indicating that Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price is expected to rise in the next 30 days, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 11.7 HKD [1] - The DRC has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply, as the DRC accounts for 70% of the world's cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, attributed to its ownership of high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with expectations for further price appreciation in the next 30 days according to Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1: Company Assets - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The company is diversifying its portfolio with assets in Brazil (niobium and phosphate) and China (molybdenum and tungsten), creating a counter-cyclical resource combination [1] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - The acquisition of the Ecuador KGH gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource base, with production anticipated to start before 2029, yielding an annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended to October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could reach approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

该行指，刚果民主共和国宣布将钴出口禁令延长至10月15日，随后将实施出口配额，2026至2027年配额 将为正常产量的40%。大摩表示，假设洛阳钼业能获得与国家层面相似的配额比例，其潜在销售量可能 在2025年第四季为约8,600吨，在2026至2027年为约4.36万吨，预期钴供应将受到重大影响，因为刚果民 主共和国占全球供应的70%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，相信洛阳钼业(03993)未来30日内股价将绝对上涨，估计此 情境有约70%至80%(或非常可能)的概率，维持"增持"评级及目标价11.7港元，此按现金流折现率作估 值。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993) will see an absolute increase in stock price within the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, its potential sales volume could reach approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027, with significant impacts expected on cobalt supply due to the DRC accounting for 70% of global supply [1]

大摩：相信洛阳钼业未来30日内股价将上涨，目标价11.7港元。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum will rise in the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] Group 2 - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, potential sales volume could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027 [1] - The expected cobalt supply will be significantly impacted, as the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 70% of global supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) and its major holdings, highlighting the fund's recent gains and overall returns since its inception [1]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) opened with a gain of 0.79%, priced at 1.522 yuan [1]. - Since its establishment on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 50.99% [1]. - Over the past month, the fund's return has been 12.17% [1]. Major Holdings - Key stocks in the Nonferrous ETF Fund include: - Zijin Mining: up 1.92% - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 3.76% - Northern Rare Earth: down 0.53% - China Aluminum: up 0.52% - Shandong Gold: up 3.84% - Huayou Cobalt: up 4.69% - Zhongjin Gold: up 3.50% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 0.34% - Chifeng Jilong Gold: up 2.90% - Yun Aluminum: unchanged [1]. Management Information - The fund is managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Yan Dong as the fund manager [1].

刚果战略矿产监管机构周日表示，该国将于10月16日解除钴出口禁令，并实施年度出口配额。 钴是关键电池原材料，对电动汽车产业至关重要。 根据公告，矿企将在2025年剩余时间内被允许出口至多18,125吨钴，2026年和2027年的年度上限则为 96,600吨。 配额制政策下，行业或将紧平衡甚至短缺。刚果金再度延长出口禁令，挺价态度坚决，未来刚果金大概 率实行配额制，供给收缩幅度大概率朝行业紧平衡甚至短缺演绎，机构看好钴价长期中枢上移。 钴业相关港股： 洛阳钼业（03993）：洛阳钼业是全球头部"矿业+贸易"公司，其钨、钴、铌、钼产量居前，亦是重要的 铜和磷肥生产商，基本金属贸易全球前三。公司当前持股80%的TFM是全球范储量最大、品位最高的在 产铜钴矿之一；持股71.25%的KFM是世界级绿地铜钴矿。 刚果去年占全球钴产量约70%，该国自2月起因钴价跌至九年低点而暂停出口，并在6月延长禁令。 智通财经APP获悉，刚果钴出口禁令已进入倒计时，记者与业内多位人士沟通了解到，多数钴中间品主 要生产商已暂停报价，部分厂商因为原料紧缺等因素已停产。 若刚果钴出口禁令延长，预计短期钴价或将迎来大幅上涨。记者采访了解到，洛阳 ...