AI 创业最怕的，不是技术落后，而是把"噪音"当信号。 什么是噪音？ 2025 年 12 月 19 日，旧金山。 硅谷创业社区 South Park Commons 的一场对话中，微软 CTO Kevin Scott 聊职业拐点、与 OpenAI 合 作、AI 时代更值钱的问题为什么总被忽视。整场对话 56 分钟，话题从创业试错，一路聊到开源与闭 源。 他最关键的一句话是： 第二，今天的创业者面对什么样的环境。 第三， ChatGPT 为什么成功。 第四， 如何识别被忽视的真实信号。 第一节｜放弃有趣的技术，选择值得做的事 Kevin Scott 原本想当一名大学教授。博士期间他研究动态二进制翻译，技术含量极高，但他后来放弃 了。 原因很简单：这事除了我，几乎没人在意。 看起来像积极信号，但对你做的东西没有价值，而且没有关系的信息。 媒体热度、投资人兴趣、技术 热词，这些信号容易获取、容易量化，但可能正在把你引向错误的方向。 这篇文章讲四件事： 第一， Kevin 如何学会识别正确的信号。 他说：我花了大量时间研究这些优化方法，能提升系统几个百分点性能。写论文、被引用、继续写论 文……然后呢？ 在学术界，这就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 蘅东光, is focusing on the development, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication sector, with a public offering price set at 31.59 yuan per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.99 times [1]. Company Overview - 蘅东光 specializes in three main business segments: passive optical fiber cabling, passive internal connection devices, and related supporting businesses. Key products include optical fiber connectors, flexible optical fiber products, and passive internal connection devices such as multi-fiber parallel connectors and PON optical modules [1]. - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with notable clients including AFL, Coherent, Jabil, Telamon, CCI, Cloud Light, and others, with applications in major brands like AT&T, Verizon, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, IBM, Cadence, and NVIDIA [1]. Industry Insights - The data center sector, a crucial application area for the optical communication industry, is experiencing rapid growth driven by digital transformation in major countries and large enterprises. According to Dell'Oro Group, global capital expenditure for data centers is expected to increase by 51% in 2024, reaching $455 billion, with a further growth of over 30% anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The demand for optical communication products is significantly boosted by the increasing computational requirements driven by generative AI technologies like ChatGPT, with major companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA investing heavily in AI infrastructure [2]. - Lightcounting predicts that the market size for optical modules, a core product in the global optical communication supply chain, will exceed $20 billion by 2027, with data centers becoming the largest application market [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 475 million yuan, 613 million yuan, and 1.315 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Net profits for the same years were approximately 55.33 million yuan, 65.08 million yuan, and 148 million yuan [4]. - As of the end of 2022, total assets were approximately 532.73 million yuan, with total equity of about 306.07 million yuan. By the end of 2024, total assets are projected to reach approximately 1.39 billion yuan, with total equity of around 520.09 million yuan [5].

Group 1 - Microsoft, Salesforce, and Oracle are identified as top software stocks for 2026 [1][2]

Core Insights - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been actively engaging with a core team of about 100 technical personnel in a Teams channel, expressing dissatisfaction whenever AI product performance is deemed unsatisfactory [1][3] - Nadella holds weekly meetings with these technical staff to inquire about project progress and issue specific adjustment directives, such as integrating different teams' work during the post-training phase of AI models [1] - Recently, Nadella criticized Microsoft's Copilot functionality in comparison to Google's Gemini, stating that Microsoft's integration with Gmail and Outlook often fails to work properly and lacks intelligence [3] Group 1 - Nadella has become the most influential product leader within Microsoft, having shifted some management responsibilities to focus more on AI product development [3] - The pressure on tech CEOs is increasing due to fierce market competition and concerns that AI product revenues may not cover the costs of investment [3] - Nadella emphasizes that this is a critical phase for the company's success or failure in the AI sector [3] Group 2 - Nadella has intensified his involvement in AI talent recruitment, personally reaching out to candidates and approving competitive compensation packages to attract top researchers from organizations like OpenAI and Google DeepMind [3]

Group 1 - Microsoft announced a new Ask Copilot experience for Windows 11 preview members, integrating Copilot as a natural part of user interaction with their computers [1][3] - The new experience allows users to access Copilot Vision and Copilot Voice with a single click, facilitating more natural interactions within their workflow [3] - Users can enable the Ask Copilot feature by navigating to "Settings" > "Personalization" > "Taskbar" > "Ask Copilot," complementing the familiar Windows search experience [3]

他对AI市场潜在问题的看法并非呼吁做空整个产业，而是提醒投资人做好功课，找到能在市场成长中 获益的优质标的。他建议投资者应聚焦于科技领域中最具主导地位的公司，这些公司拥有持续扩张的资 源，且不受中小企业限制，最佳例子包括亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软。 来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月22日｜"大空头"交易员Danny Moses认为，AI市场确实存在泡沫迹象。他强调，虽然AI投资 是真实的长期增长故事，但与过去的互联网科技狂潮相比有相似处，因此投资人仍需谨慎。他指出，增 长是真实存在的，但数学模型不再成立，我们正在到达一个数学开始不再成立的临界点。 Moses并非对所有大型科技公司的领导者都持乐观态度。以甲骨文为例，公司负债高且需要大量现金来 履行AI相关订单。同时，他也提到超微与CoreWeave等波动性高的科技股，是AI投资中较具风险的标 的。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights that layoffs in the U.S. are significantly influenced by the adoption of AI technologies, with approximately 55,000 layoffs attributed to AI in 2023 alone [1] - By 2025, total layoffs in the U.S. are projected to reach 1.17 million, marking the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Major companies like Amazon and Microsoft have announced significant layoffs, with Amazon cutting 14,000 jobs and Microsoft laying off around 15,000 employees [1] Group 2 - IBM announced a global layoff affecting about 3,000 employees, with its CEO indicating that AI chatbots have taken over many HR roles [2] - Salesforce confirmed a reduction of 4,000 customer service positions due to the implementation of AI technology [2] - Some experts argue that AI may be used as an excuse for layoffs, suggesting that companies are correcting overstaffing from the pandemic rather than solely relying on AI as the cause [3]

Group 1 - Blizzard Entertainment has announced a content release plan to launch one to two major digital products annually, including new games, significant expansions, or major updates, aiming to establish a stable and predictable content rhythm [1][4] - The company's strategy will leverage classic IPs such as Diablo and World of Warcraft to continuously attract players and drive business growth in an increasingly competitive gaming market [1][4] - Blizzard's content release model is becoming more systematic post-Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, moving away from years-long gaps between major releases to a more regular schedule [4] Group 2 - Blizzard's president, Johanna Faries, emphasized that the annual release plan includes not only full new titles or sequels but also expansions like "King of Hatred" and new content for World of Warcraft, such as the upcoming expansion "Midnight" [4] - Faries mentioned that the company is currently in the second phase of a five-year plan, focusing on maximizing the potential of existing core resources while not ruling out exploration of new areas [4] - The strategy aims to create a product portfolio that ensures at least one to two major releases each year, leveraging the synergy of multiple brand series to maintain industry leadership [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the debt pressure faced by major AI companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, the company has secured two orders exceeding $100 million for gas turbine generator sets, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - The company plans to reasonably allocate production capacity to ensure timely delivery of these orders while closely monitoring market conditions for further opportunities [1] - The company acknowledges the potential impact of project delays on future orders but remains focused on achieving breakthroughs in its operations [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft has launched a new feature called Copilot Actions for real-time text editing in the latest version of Copilot [1][3] Group 1: Feature Overview - The Copilot Actions feature allows users to edit, rewrite, enhance, or simplify text during Copilot Vision sessions [3] - To activate this feature, users must open the Copilot application and click on the glasses icon in the chat bar [3] - Users can share their window to display documents or applications and simply speak to make edits [3] Group 2: Functionality and User Experience - Commands such as "make it clearer" or "rewrite it more formally" will immediately trigger modification suggestions from Copilot [3] - Users can preview suggestions before applying them, ensuring a smooth workflow without needing to switch windows [3] - Text editing requires enabling the Copilot Actions toggle in the application settings to access the feature for long-running tasks [3]