专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。中信证券 A股首席策略分析师裘翔表示，2025年A股最重大的转变在于市场视角的重构。数据显示，今年上半年 A股前30大制造企业的海外收入占比达45%，却贡献了70%的利润。 他表示，A股不再是中国的A股，而是全球的A股。A股已不再单纯依赖本国经济周期，而是涌现出一批 在电车、锂电、光伏、新能源等领域具备全球领先地位的企业，投资者买入这些公司的核心逻辑是其全 球竞争力，而非单纯的"中国故事"。 他强调，这种"全球A股"的特征，是市场估值中枢持续上抬的核心驱动力。A股正逐步脱离新兴市场的 估值逻辑，向基本面与全球布局挂钩的成熟市场靠拢。 他表示，当前AI应用仍面临两大核心问题。 一，用户黏性缺失。2024年初至今，他已更换过五个主流AI模型，选择完全基于"即时好用度"，毫无品 牌黏性，这导致用户付费意愿有限。缺乏黏性的前提下，难以产生支付溢价。 二，AI难以处理模糊问题。分析师需先对复杂问题进行拆解、形成系统性认知，才能向AI给出精准提 示词，进而获得可 ...

Market Overview - The US CPI annual rate decline has led to a rise in US stocks, boosting risk market sentiment [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened higher and closed up 0.75%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.68% and 1.12% respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Tencent up 1.49%, Kuaishou up 1.45%, and Meituan up 1.28% [4] - Pharmaceutical stocks were active, with WuXi AppTec and other related stocks rising [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China leading with a 6.6% increase [2][5] - AI-driven demand boosted optical fiber and cable stocks, with Yangtze Optical Fiber rising 12% [2] - Automotive, wind power, education, photovoltaic, insurance, and Apple-related stocks also experienced gains [2] Notable Stock Movements - Xpeng Motors rose 7.65%, Horizon Robotics up 7.04%, and Li Auto up 3.81% [4][10] - Electronic cigarette stocks saw significant increases, with China Tobacco Hong Kong up 6.68% [5] - Chinese brokerage stocks rose, with China International Capital Corporation up over 4% [7] - Intelligent driving concept stocks surged, with Youjia Innovation up 31.22% [8] Weak Performers - Heavy machinery stocks faced declines, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group down over 6% [13] - Gold and precious metal stocks were weak, with several companies experiencing declines of over 2% [16] - Oil stocks also fell, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation down 1.52% [15] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 3.371 billion, with net selling from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and net buying from Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [18] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that after a strong performance in September, Hong Kong stocks are undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with quality assets entering a high-value zone [18]

12月19日盘中，A股股指再度上扬，软件开发板块高开高走，创业板软件ETF华夏（159256）涨 0.85%，其持仓股四方精创、彩讯股份、航天智装涨超4%，中科创达、荣科科技、银之杰、每日互动等 股领涨。 消息方面，字节发布通用agent模型豆包1.8，豆包1.8可以直接操作手机、电脑和浏览器。它能看懂屏幕 上的按钮和界面，然后像人一样点击、滑动，完成各种任务。在多模态理解方面，豆包1.8的表现具有 竞争力。模型能够处理图像和视频内容，单次视频理解的帧数从前代的640帧提升至1280帧。该项提升 并非仅体现在数值层面，在实际应用场景中，模型能够以低帧率理解长视频的整体内容，在遇到关键片 段时调用工具进行高帧率分析。 在AI产业链中，软件行业主要处于中游技术层和下游应用层，扮演着核心技术支撑和应用落地的关键 角色。具体来看，软件行业在中游技术层主要提供AI框架、开发平台和算法模型，这些技术是AI应用 开发的基础。在下游应用层，软件行业通过将AI技术与各行业结合，推动AI应用的落地。 中信证券分析指出，当前软件产业正迎来AI融合与国产化替代的双重机遇。随着海外云计算厂商资本 开支保持高增长，AI算力需求持续旺盛， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36% to close at 3890.45 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.66% to 13140.21 points. The ChiNext Index gained 0.49% to 3122.24 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 0.2% to 1308.59 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17,259.15 billion yuan, with nearly 4500 stocks rising across the market [1]. Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks saw significant gains, with Hainan Haiyao and Hainan Ruize hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Hainan Mining and Hainan High-speed also experiencing notable increases [1]. - The dairy sector continued to strengthen, with stocks like Huanlejia reaching a 20% limit up and other companies such as Yuantong Dairy and Qishi Dairy also rising [1]. - The Fujian sector rebounded, with Sanmu Group hitting the daily limit and several other stocks like Xinhua Dou and Dongbai Group also performing well [1]. Industry Insights - The optical communication sector showed strong performance, with companies like LIGONG Optical Technology hitting the daily limit. Major fiber optic manufacturers reported a 15% price increase for bulk fiber, indicating positive signals for the industry [2]. - According to Guosheng Securities, the overseas special optical fiber market is entering a high-growth phase driven by breakthroughs in AI computing power and application scenarios [2]. Investment Recommendations - CITIC Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the semiconductor equipment industry, predicting a steady growth in the global wafer fabrication equipment market in 2025 and 2026, driven by demand from major clients like Intel [3]. - CICC forecasts that coal prices will exhibit a low-to-high trend in 2026, with demand being a primary drag but supply constraints remaining strong [4]. - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of optimizing public fund performance assessments, suggesting a focus on high-quality financial stocks as the capital market trends upward [5].

中国经济网北京12月19日讯 海思科(002653.SZ)向特定对象发行证券事项昨日获得深交所审核通过。 | 已受理 | 已问询 | 已回复 | 审核 | 提交注册 | 注册结果 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-18 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 审核通过 | | | | 上市公司 | 002653海思科 | 预计融资金额(亿元) | 12.4526 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发行对象 | 向特定对象发行证券 | 融资类型 | 股票 | 公司9月26日披露的《2025年度向特定对象发行A股股票募集说明书(修订稿) 》显示，本次向特定对象发行股票的发行对象为不超过35名（含）特定投 资者。本次发行对象为符合中国证监会规定的证券投资基金管理公司、证券公司、信托投资公司、财务公司、资产管理公司、保险机构投资者、合格境外机 构投资者、人民币合格境外机构投资者、其他境内外机构投资者和自然人等合法投资者。证券投资基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangha Communication (300711.SZ) has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its issuance of securities to specific investors, aiming to raise up to 750 million RMB [1][4]. Financing Details - The company plans to issue shares to no more than 35 specific investors, including qualified institutional investors and individuals [4]. - The total amount expected to be raised is up to 75 million RMB, with the issuance price set at no less than 80% of the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days [4][5]. Project Allocation - The funds raised will be allocated to three main projects: 1. New Generation Intelligent Dispatch System Construction Project: Total investment of 346.38 million RMB, with 308.85 million RMB from the raised funds [6]. 2. Smart Command System Upgrade Project: Total investment of 280.18 million RMB, with 244.63 million RMB from the raised funds [6]. 3. Intelligent Core Technology Research for Dispatch Command System: Total investment of 277.82 million RMB, with 196.51 million RMB from the raised funds [6]. - The total investment for these projects amounts to 904.37 million RMB, with the raised funds covering 75 million RMB [6]. Shareholding Structure - As of the date of the fundraising document, Guangzhou Shuke Group holds 66.33% of the company's shares and will remain the controlling shareholder after the issuance, with a reduced stake of 55.28% post-issuance [6].

Group 1: Brokerage Firms Dividend Trends - Nearly 80% of brokerage firms have adopted a new norm of multiple dividends within a year, with 35 firms distributing dividends two or more times, representing 79.55% of the total [1] - Leading firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan have significantly increased their dividend payouts, with CITIC Securities distributing 29 yuan per share in the mid-year report and total annual dividends exceeding 4 billion yuan for several top firms [1] - The trend of increased dividend frequency is expected to enhance investor return expectations and attract long-term capital, potentially stabilizing market sentiment [2] Group 2: ETF Market Activity - There has been a notable increase in trading volume for broad-based ETFs, with significant net inflows observed in products like the CSI A500 ETF and others, indicating a shift in capital towards capturing structural growth opportunities [3] - The active performance of broad-based ETFs is likely to provide liquidity support for the A-share market, particularly benefiting sectors with strong earnings and valuation alignment, such as technology and consumer [3] Group 3: Public Fund Participation in Private Placements - Public funds have actively participated in the A-share private placement market, with 39 institutions involved in 85 stocks, collectively acquiring over 34 billion yuan, marking a 14.24% increase from the previous year [4] - This heightened activity reflects institutional optimism regarding market prospects and may provide liquidity support for related stocks, especially in popular sectors like new energy and technology [4]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the supernode solution is expected to scale rapidly, serving as a fundamental computing unit for future AI infrastructure, with advantages such as efficient communication bandwidth and native memory semantics [1][2] Group 1: Supernode Development - The MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture imposes new hardware requirements, leading to the emergence of scale-up supernodes [2] - Supernodes face complex systemic challenges compared to traditional eight-card servers, including heat dissipation, stability issues from mixed optical and copper interconnects, and long-term reliability concerns [2][3] - The current phase of supernode solutions is characterized by a variety of competing technologies, with domestic solutions like Huawei's CloudMatrix384 and Alibaba's Panjiu emerging [3] Group 2: Technical Challenges and Solutions - As computing density increases, liquid cooling solutions with a PUE closer to 1, such as phase change immersion cooling, may see greater development opportunities if stability issues can be resolved [4] - The complexity of supernode servers has significantly increased, requiring deep consideration of chip integration, heat dissipation, and interconnects, transforming server manufacturers into core system integrators [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The supernode technology is in its early stages, with the MoE architecture likely to become mainstream, presenting new adaptive requirements for hardware development [7] - The report suggests that companies with customization capabilities and supply chain management skills in the server manufacturing sector are likely to see significant growth opportunities [7]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese securities industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards more frequent and substantial dividend distributions, reflecting a shift from a focus on financing to prioritizing shareholder returns [1][3][11]. Group 1: Dividend Frequency and Trends - In 2025, a notable change in the dividend practices of listed securities firms has emerged, with "multiple dividends per year" becoming the new norm [3][4]. - As of December 18, 2025, 35 securities firms have implemented or planned to distribute dividends two times or more, accounting for 79.55% of all listed firms [4][6]. - The trend of mid-term dividends (including interim and quarterly reports) has gained momentum, with 29 firms distributing mid-term dividends in 2025, a significant increase from previous years [3][4]. Group 2: Leading Firms and Dividend Quality - Leading firms are setting high benchmarks for dividend payouts, with CITIC Securities distributing 29 yuan per hand (100 shares), followed by CITIC Jiantou at 16.5 yuan, and Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan at 15 yuan each [6][7]. - The total dividend amounts for major firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan have exceeded 40 billion yuan in 2025, with CITIC Securities alone reaching 84.48 billion yuan [7][9]. Group 3: Diversification of Shareholder Return Tools - In addition to cash dividends, share buybacks are becoming a key tool for securities firms to return value to shareholders and manage capital structure [9][10]. - As of December 18, 2025, several firms have initiated share buybacks, with Guotai Junan leading with over 1.2 billion yuan in buyback amounts [9][10]. - The combination of cash dividends and share buybacks is being increasingly adopted by firms to provide a more flexible capital operation space and diverse value realization paths for investors [9][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Influence and Market Environment - The ongoing regulatory emphasis on shareholder returns and the improved market environment are driving firms to enhance their dividend frequency and amounts [7][11]. - Policies such as the new "National Nine Articles" encourage multiple dividends per year, prompting firms to internalize dividend distribution as a rigid responsibility rather than a flexible option [7][11]. - The transformation reflects a broader cultural shift in the securities industry towards maturity, focusing on quality and sustainable shareholder returns [11].

券商资深人士指出，这一系列变化不仅是对监管的回应，更深层次反映了 证券行业从"重融 资"向"重回报"的价值转型， 致力于构建投资者与公司共赢的良性生态。 记者丨崔文静 编辑丨巫燕玲 12月19日，长城证券实施2025年中期派息，每手派发现金红利7.6元，合计派发现金红利约 3.07亿元。 这只是近期上市券商加大分红力度的一个缩影。在政策持续引导下，A股券商的分红实践在 2025年发生了重要变化，"一年多次分红"成为鲜明的新常态。 这场变化最直观的体现是分红频次的"井喷"。截至12月18日，叠加三季报分红与中报分红，全 年有35家券商分红达两次及以上，占比高达79.55%，意味着 近八成券商已进入"多次分红、及 时分享"的常态化阶段。 与此同时，分红的"含金量"在中报季尤为突出。头部券商引领风潮，中信证券2025中报每手分 红29元，中信建投、华泰证券、国泰海通等也力度可观。 从年度总额看， 中信证券、国泰海通等多家头部机构年内分红均超40亿元。 而近期推出的三 季报分红，则显示出行业在尝试提高分红频次上的新探索。 除了真金白银的分红，建立长期规划、探索"分红+回购"等多元化工具，正成为券商完善回报 体系的新方 ...