机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：訾猛/刘佳昆/李美仪 本报告导读： 据国家烟草专卖局近期文件，中烟国际为具备烟草进出口国营贸易资格的唯一企业，经公司沟通，双方 已就保持中烟香港独家经营中国境内免税卷烟出口业务达成共识。 投资要点： 投资建议：公 司公告回应上级部门相关管理办法，经积极沟通境内卷烟出口免税业务有望仍由中烟香 港经营，暂无实质变化，维持2025-2027 年EPS 预测值1.40、1.58、1.75 港元，维持增持评级。 公司发布公告回应上级单位有关文件。2025 年7 月25 日国家烟草专卖局发布《境内免税市场烟草制品 管理办法（征求意见稿）》，其中提到，根据法规草案及中国现行法律法规，具备烟草进出口国营贸易 资格的唯一企业为中国烟草国际有限公司（中烟国际）。此前根据中烟香港招股书及年报，中烟国际是 中国唯一具备进口烟叶类产品资格的实体，中烟香港从事烟叶进口时需先销售给中烟国际（加价比例 6%、小部分3%），再由中烟国际销售给烟叶公司，因此这并非中烟国际首次出现相关业务的"唯一 性"表述。 征求意见稿旨在强化免税市场监管。根据征求意见稿，当前境内免税市场烟草制品经营仍存在诸多问 题，国家烟草专卖局按 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][17]. Core Views - The report indicates that China Tobacco Hong Kong has reached a consensus with the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration to maintain its exclusive operation of duty-free cigarette exports within China, suggesting limited impact from recent policy changes [2][10]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from HKD 11.836 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.690 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 599 million in 2023 to HKD 1.208 billion in 2027, with a notable increase of 59.7% in 2023 and a steady growth trajectory thereafter [4][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: HKD 11,836 million - 2024: HKD 13,074 million (+10.5%) - 2025: HKD 14,378 million (+10.0%) - 2026: HKD 15,545 million (+8.1%) - 2027: HKD 16,690 million (+7.4%) [4]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: HKD 599 million - 2024: HKD 854 million (+42.6%) - 2025: HKD 969 million (+13.5%) - 2026: HKD 1,092 million (+12.7%) - 2027: HKD 1,208 million (+10.6%) [4]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.40, HKD 1.58, and HKD 1.75 respectively [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 22,583 million and a total share count of 692 million [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of HKD 13.82 to HKD 37.30 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the release of the draft management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products, indicating a regulatory shift aimed at improving market order and protecting tax revenues [8] - The company is positioned as the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a significant portion of revenue expected from the domestic duty-free market [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in revenue and profit, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections (in million HKD) are as follows: 2023A: 11,836, 2024A: 13,074, 2025E: 13,432, 2026E: 14,656, 2027E: 15,718, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.19%, 10.46%, 2.74%, 9.11%, and 7.25% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS forecasts are: 2023A: 0.87, 2024A: 1.23, 2025E: 1.26, 2026E: 1.46, 2027E: 1.63, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37.72, 26.45, 25.95, 22.32, and 20.07 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 11.00% by 2027 [9] Market Context - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the duty-free tobacco market, emphasizing the need for compliance with new management measures to enhance operational integrity [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the consolidation of resources within the international tobacco supply chain, which may lead to increased market share and profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a stable growth outlook for its main business [8] - The newly proposed management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products are expected to enhance regulatory oversight and could lead to further development of the company's cigarette import and export business [8] - The company's revenue from domestic duty-free cigarette business is projected to contribute 10% in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity [8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 22, and 20 [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 11,836 million in 2023 to HKD 15,718 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.25% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from HKD 598.77 million in 2023 to HKD 1,125.43 million in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.87 in 2023 to HKD 1.63 in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22,583.35 million [5] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 7.51, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.53%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [6]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - New China Life Insurance (01336) rose over 5%, reaching a historical high, while China Life (2628.HK) increased by 4.4%, AIA (1299.HK) by 3.5%, and China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) by nearly 2% following the release of the 2Q25 predetermined interest rate of 1.99% by the insurance industry association [1] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (1276.HK) opened up 10.65% after announcing a global exclusive licensing agreement with GSK for the HRS-9821 project, excluding mainland China and certain regions [1] - Guangshen Railway (00525.HK) saw a peak increase of over 9% after signing a cooperation agreement for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project, with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stock Movements - MicroPort Medical (00853.HK) surged over 8% as major shareholders agreed to sell a total of 291 million shares to various buyers, including funds under Shanghai Industrial Capital [2] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) rose over 5% following the release of a draft management regulation for domestic duty-free tobacco products by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [2] - Shenghua Land (08106) saw its stock price soar over 200% after a share acquisition agreement was reached [2] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings (09636) increased over 10% after announcing a profit forecast for the first half of the year, expecting a net profit of 830 to 870 million yuan, a turnaround from a net loss of 174 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Lianlian Digital (02598) rose over 7% as a report highlighted the significant role of third-party payment institutions in cross-border and multi-currency settlement services [2] Group 3: Macau Gaming Sector Performance - Gaming stocks saw a general increase, with Amax Holdings (00880) up 10.39%, Melco International Development (00200) up 5.64%, and Sands China (01928) up 3.25%. UBS reported that the average daily gaming revenue in Macau for the past week was 657 million patacas, a slight decline due to typhoon impacts, but still showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 14% [3] Group 4: US Stock Market Highlights - AMD (AMD.US) rose 2.68% as it achieved a 50% market share in the server CPU market, matching Intel for the first time [4] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) increased by 6.89%, reporting a second-quarter earnings per share of $1.85, up from 73 cents year-on-year [5] - Berkshire Hathaway's holding Verisign (VRSN.US) rose 6.67% despite Q2 revenue falling short of market expectations, as the company raised its full-year revenue guidance [5] - Tesla (TSLA.US) increased by 3.52% with plans to launch Robotaxi services in San Francisco [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.40%, gaining 102 points to close at 25,490 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59% [1] - Hong Kong's stock market saw a morning trading volume of HKD 149.7 billion [1] Group 2: Brokerage Performance - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society has led to positive performance reports from listed brokerages, with notable gains in shares such as Guotai Junan (up 3%), Everbright Securities (up 0.54%), and CITIC Securities (up 1%) [1] Group 3: Gaming Sector - UBS reported that Macau's July gaming revenue exceeded market expectations, while Thailand recently withdrew its casino legalization bill, leading to a rise in gaming stocks. Notable increases include Suncity Holdings (up 7.79%), Melco International Development (up 3.89%), and Sands China (up 1.62%) [1] Group 4: Financial Technology and Digital Currency - Yunfeng Financial rose by 5.68% as the company plans to enter the Web 3.0 space and expand investments in stablecoins and other digital currencies [1] - OSL Group announced the completion of a USD 300 million equity financing, which will be used for license application preparations and other core areas, resulting in a 2.68% increase in its stock [1] Group 5: Innovative Products and Earnings - Guichuang Tongqiao saw a nearly 6% increase, with expected net profit growth of nearly 67% year-on-year for the first half, and several innovative products anticipated to receive approval [1] - China Tobacco Hong Kong surged over 13%, indicating that its exclusive cigarette export business is unaffected by related regulatory draft [1] Group 6: Optical Technology - Conant Optical experienced a rise of over 6%, driven by the upward trend in smart glasses and the potential growth of its XR business [2] Group 7: Gold and Coal Sectors - Laopu Gold's stock fell nearly 4% after a profit warning, despite a projected net profit increase of up to 288% year-on-year for the first half [3] - The main contracts for coking coal saw significant declines, with companies like Mongolian Coking Coal and Yancoal Australia dropping by 5% and 3.39% respectively, indicating a need to monitor policy developments [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) opened up 70 points and peaked at nearly 300 points before retracting gains, closing up 0.40% at 25,490.45 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59%, closing at 5,644.52 points [1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 149.725 billion [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, including Chinese securities firms and insurance companies, showed strong performance [1] - Innovative drug concepts also performed well, contributing to the overall market gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [1] Notable Stocks - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) surged by 13.78% after reaching an agreement with China Tobacco International to maintain its position in the domestic duty-free cigarette business [1] - China Ping An (02318.HK) increased by 3.21% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) rose by 15.43% [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) saw a decline of 1.85% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration regarding the management of tobacco products in the domestic duty-free market has positively impacted the stock price of China Tobacco Hong Kong, which rose over 13% [1] Company Summary - China Tobacco Hong Kong stated that its exclusive cigarette export business will not be affected by the draft regulations released by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on various sectors, indicating a stable recovery in the home furnishing and paper packaging sectors, while new tobacco and packaging sectors show robust growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to see marginal improvement in domestic demand due to government support for consumption upgrades, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields and growth certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products (HTP), with significant sales increases reported in Europe and a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The paper packaging sector is facing a gradual recovery in pulp prices, with a focus on companies that maintain strong market positions and high dividends [12]. - The light consumer goods and pet food sectors are under pressure, but there are opportunities in innovative product launches and channel expansion [15]. - The two-wheeler sector is poised for a rebound with government subsidies and new standards expected to drive demand [16][17]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are expected to improve due to government initiatives, with a focus on companies with strong growth prospects and high dividends [5][10]. - Export figures show a slight increase in June, but a cumulative decline for the first half of the year [10]. New Tobacco - HNB sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The regulatory environment in the U.S. is tightening, which may benefit compliant market players [11]. Paper Packaging - Pulp prices have shown slight increases, but overall market conditions remain challenging [12]. - Companies with strong market positions and dividend policies are recommended for investment [12]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Food - The sector is facing challenges, but there are opportunities in new product launches and expanding distribution channels [15]. - Online sales data indicates mixed performance across different product categories [23]. Two-Wheeler - The sector is expected to benefit from government subsidies and new regulations, with a focus on companies that can leverage these changes for growth [16][17]. - Recent data shows a significant number of electric bikes being replaced under the subsidy program [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - 中烟香港's exclusive cigarette export business will not be affected by the draft regulations released by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The draft regulations titled "Management Measures for Tobacco Products in the Duty-Free Market" were published on July 25, 2025 [1] - The only enterprise qualified for tobacco import and export state-owned trade is China Tobacco International Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Business Operations - 中烟香港 engages in the procurement of cigarettes from China National Tobacco Corporation and exclusively sells them in duty-free markets in Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macau [1] - Approximately 10% of 中烟香港's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is derived from the domestic duty-free cigarette business in China [1] - The draft regulations do not impact 中烟香港's exclusive cigarette export business outside of the domestic duty-free market [1]