Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to $20.00 from the previous $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current price of $16.71 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.135 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by new game releases exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms" has been strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual game revenue forecast to RMB 54 billion for 2024 and RMB 67 billion for 2025, with expected growth rates of 34% and 23% respectively [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its advertising capabilities and expanding its e-commerce initiatives, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of RMB 21.899 billion in 2022, with projections of RMB 22.528 billion in 2023, RMB 26.585 billion in 2024, and RMB 30.207 billion in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][10]. - The net loss is expected to narrow from RMB 6.692 billion in 2022 to RMB 3.425 billion in 2023, and further to RMB 478 million in 2024, with a projected return to profitability in 2025 [4][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.6% in 2022 to 30.8% in 2024, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased revenue from advertising [10][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games is projected to grow from RMB 4.021 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.405 billion in 2024, while value-added services (VAS) and advertising revenues are also expected to see significant increases [7][10]. - The report highlights that advertising revenue is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year in Q2 2024, driven by improved ad distribution strategies and product enhancements [2][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.37 billion and a 52-week price range between $8.94 and $19.07 [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for further growth in the gaming and advertising sectors, particularly with the upcoming launch of new games and enhancements in advertising technology [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of **$20.50**, implying a potential upside of **22.7%** from the current price of **$16.71** [1][3] Core Views - Bilibili's **community ecosystem** and **commercialization** are showing healthy growth, with **user stickiness** and **commercial value** improving due to the expansion of diversified content categories such as knowledge and consumer-related content [1] - The company's **commercial infrastructure** has been enhanced, leading to a **50% YoY increase** in the number of advertisers and a **100% YoY growth** in GMV from live-streaming e-commerce in 1H24 [1] - The **gaming business** has entered its third "five-year plan," focusing on both self-developed and agency games, with plans to launch at least two new long-term vertical games in the next five years [1] - The short-term catalyst for the stock is the **better-than-expected performance** of the mobile game *San Mou*, while the long-term outlook is positive due to the company's improving **commercialization capabilities** and **profitability** [1] Content Ecosystem - Bilibili has expanded its content categories beyond traditional strengths, with **knowledge and consumer-related content** growing rapidly, contributing to a **5 percentage point increase** in the share of diversified content video views [1][7] - In 1H24, video views (VV) for **automotive/travel/home improvement** categories grew by **48%/40%/43% YoY**, respectively, driving higher **creator revenue** and **user spending** on the platform [1][7] - **Creator revenue** increased by **32% YoY** in 1H24, with income from **Hua Huo orders/charging/classroom projects** growing by **31%/371%/52% YoY**, respectively [7] - The number of users with **spending behavior** on the platform grew by **71% YoY** in 1H24 [7] Commercialization Infrastructure - Bilibili has improved its **advertising infrastructure** through: 1) enhanced ad distribution by optimizing user experience and ad load rates, 2) better ad creatives using AIGC technology, 3) integrated ad tools like *Bi Huo Mobile*, which saw **300% YoY growth** in ad revenue in 1H24, and 4) improved data insights for advertisers via *B-Data* and *Z-Index* [1][8] - The number of advertisers on the platform increased by **50% YoY** in 1H24, with **game industry ad revenue** growing over **30% YoY** and **internet services/education/finance ad revenue** growing over **100% YoY** [8] - During the **618 shopping festival**, platform GMV grew by **146% YoY**, and ad revenue increased by over **30% YoY**, with new customer acquisition rates exceeding **50%** for e-commerce platforms [8] Gaming Business - The success of *San Mou* is attributed to its **differentiated positioning**, **reduced user burden** (shorter playtime and lower in-game item prices), and **innovative content** tailored for young users [9] - Bilibili's gaming strategy focuses on: 1) developing games that appeal to young users, 2) a dual approach of **self-development and agency**, 3) maintaining leadership in content-driven games, and 4) launching at least two new **long-term vertical games** in the next five years [1][9] - The company expects the gaming business to become a **major profit driver** in the long term, supported by the **long lifecycle** of SLG games and the team's commitment to **user experience** and **content quality** [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 25.5 billion in FY24E** to **RMB 29.3 billion in FY26E**, with **gross margins** improving from **30.0% in FY24E** to **34.3% in FY26E** [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in **FY25E** at **RMB 1.16 billion**, increasing to **RMB 1.44 billion in FY26E** [2] - The company's **P/S ratio** is expected to decline from **2.0x in FY24E** to **1.7x in FY26E**, reflecting improving profitability [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown strong performance, with **1-month/3-month/6-month absolute returns** of **16.1%/45.6%/56.9%**, outperforming the market in relative terms [5] - The company's **market cap** stands at **$6.91 billion**, with **52-week high/low prices** of **$19.07/$8.94** [4]

哔哩哔哩-SW (09626.HK) 2024 年 07 月 04 日 投资评级:买入(首次) | 日期 | 2024/7/4 | |-------------------------|---------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 125.50 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 151.30/67.800 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 528.68 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 518.31 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 4.21 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 4.13 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 71.1 | | 股价走势图 | | 哔哩哔哩-W 恒生指数 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 数据来源:聚源 传媒/数字媒体 游戏、会员、广告、IP 变现全面发力,商业化提速 ——港股公司首次覆盖报告 方光照(分析师) 田鹏(分析师) fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520030004 tianpeng@kysec.cn 证书编号:S07 ...

Core Points - Bilibili Inc. held its annual general meeting in Shanghai, where all proposed resolutions were adopted [1] - Key resolutions included the re-election of directors, granting of mandates for share issuance and repurchase, and approval of a share incentive plan [2] Group 1: Corporate Governance - Mr. Rui Chen was re-elected as a director, along with Mr. JP Gan and Mr. Eric He as independent directors [2] - Directors were granted a general mandate to allot and issue additional Class Z ordinary shares and to repurchase Bilibili's own shares [2] Group 2: Share Incentive Plan - The second amended and restated 2018 share incentive plan was approved, allowing for the issuance of shares not exceeding 10% of Bilibili's total issued and outstanding shares [2] - Of the total shares, a maximum of 0.5% may be issued to service provider participants as defined in the plan [2] Group 3: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, focusing on enriching the lives of young generations through diverse video content [3] - The company is known for its "bullet chatting" feature, enhancing user engagement by displaying real-time comments during video viewing [3]

Core Points - Bilibili Inc. held its annual general meeting in Shanghai, where all proposed resolutions were adopted [1][2] - Mr. Rui Chen was re-elected as a director, along with Mr. JP Gan and Mr. Eric He as independent directors [2] - The company received a general mandate to allot and issue additional Class Z ordinary shares and to repurchase its own shares [2] - The second amended and restated 2018 share incentive plan was approved, allowing for the issuance of shares not exceeding 10% of the total issued and outstanding shares, with a limit of 0.5% for service provider participants [2] Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, targeting young generations with a mission to enrich their everyday lives [3] - The platform offers a diverse range of video content and is known for its "bullet chatting" feature, enhancing user engagement [3] - Bilibili aims to promote Chinese culture globally while fostering a strong community among content creators and users [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [3][8]. Core Views - The company has seen significant growth in its gaming revenue, particularly from the newly launched mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World," which reached the third position on the iOS bestseller list shortly after its release. This is expected to contribute substantially to the company's game revenue for the year 2024 [3]. - The company's performance during the 618 shopping festival showed a remarkable increase in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume), with a year-on-year growth of 146%. This indicates a strong improvement in the platform's monetization capabilities [3]. - The report projects an increase in revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with expected revenues of RMB 26.18 billion, RMB 29.59 billion, and RMB 32.74 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected sales revenue for 2024 is RMB 26,181 million, with a growth rate of 16% compared to 2023. The non-GAAP net profit is expected to be a loss of RMB 465 million, improving to a profit of RMB 1,250 million in 2025 and RMB 1,959 million in 2026 [4][6]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's operating income, with expectations of reaching RMB 29,588 million in 2025 and RMB 32,737 million in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance of 40.3% over the past months compared to the Hang Seng Index, indicating strong market interest and potential [2]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is reported at HKD 539.77 million, reflecting active trading and investor engagement [2]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Chen Rui, holds a 12.1% stake in the company, indicating a significant level of insider investment [2]. Game Revenue Contribution - The newly launched mobile game is expected to significantly boost the company's game revenue, with projections of RMB 8.91 million, RMB 9.92 million, and RMB 10.07 million for Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2023 respectively [3]. E-commerce Growth - The report highlights a 93% increase in advertising revenue during the 618 shopping festival, with the number of advertisers on the platform increasing by 313% year-on-year [3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 50.6 and 32.3 respectively, indicating a potential for growth in earnings relative to the stock price [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [4][18]. Core Views - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World," exclusively represented by the company, performed better than expected during its public testing phase, ranking 3rd in the sales chart shortly after launch [1]. - The game's total revenue reached approximately 102 million yuan within the first week, with stable daily revenue around 18 million yuan after the initial launch [2]. - The company has reduced its advertising spending significantly after the initial launch, with a peak in ad placements on the day of the game's public testing [3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to generate revenues of 24.73 billion yuan, 28.02 billion yuan, and 30.93 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to improve from a loss of 1.85 billion yuan in 2024 to a profit of 663 million yuan in 2026 [4][10]. - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit growth rates, projecting a 61.6% increase in 2024 and a staggering 372.5% increase in 2026 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 8.2% from the current closing price of $15.71 [8]. Core Insights - Bilibili's first SLG mobile game, "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World," has exceeded revenue expectations since its public launch on June 13, 2024, with projected first-month revenue between 500-800 million RMB [1][2]. - The game has achieved a high ranking on the iOS game download and sales charts, indicating strong user acceptance with an App Store rating of 4.4, slightly above competitors [1]. - The report highlights the long-term operational potential of SLG mobile games, suggesting that effective content updates and event operations could sustain revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Game Performance - "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" has maintained a top position in the iOS game download rankings and sales charts, with a projected first-month revenue exceeding previous expectations [1]. - Comparatively, other SLG games like Alibaba's "Three Kingdoms Strategy Edition" have achieved a maximum monthly revenue of 1.2 billion RMB, showcasing the competitive landscape [1][3]. Market Strategy - The game differentiates itself by reducing time-consuming operations and enhancing player experience through lower spending requirements, which may attract a broader user base [1]. - Marketing strategies include multi-channel promotions and collaborations with content creators to engage core SLG players [1]. Future Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the new game could open up opportunities in overseas markets, referencing the international success of similar titles [1]. - Revenue contributions from "Three Kingdoms" are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially increasing overall game revenue by 12-20% in 2024, surpassing market expectations [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.665 billion yuan for Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.74%. Gross profit reached 1.605 billion yuan, up 45.42% year-on-year, while net profit was -0.765 billion yuan, compared to -0.630 billion yuan in the same period last year. Adjusted net profit was -0.456 billion yuan, an improvement from -1.031 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. - The user ecosystem is steadily improving, with daily active users reaching 102 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. Monthly active users were approximately 342 million, up 8.34% year-on-year. The average user engagement time reached 105 minutes, a historical high [2]. - The advertising business is experiencing rapid growth, with Q1 2024 advertising revenue of 1.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.20%. The revenue from performance-based advertising grew by over 50% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.34%, an increase of 6.56 percentage points year-on-year, marking seven consecutive quarters of positive growth. The overall operating expense ratio decreased to 42.79%, down 6.10 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [3]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 25.067 billion yuan, 28.273 billion yuan, and 30.134 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be -1.554 billion yuan, 0.418 billion yuan, and 1.397 billion yuan [8]. User Engagement - The platform's daily average video views exceeded 5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and monthly interactions surpassed 16.4 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Over 1.5 million creators earned income, with a more than 50% increase in the number of creators earning through advertising [2]. Business Segments - The value-added services segment generated 2.529 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 17.28%. The advertising segment continues to optimize its products and expand advertising scenarios. The mobile gaming segment saw a revenue decline of 13.15% to 0.983 billion yuan due to the natural decline in older games, but new game launches are expected to boost future revenues [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI:US) [1][4] Core Views - Bilibili's Q1 2024 revenue reached 5.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations, marking a return to double-digit growth since Q4 2022 [2][5] - The adjusted net loss for Q1 2024 was 440 million RMB, better than the expected 500 million RMB, with the loss rate narrowing to 8% [2][3] - User metrics show healthy growth, with MAU reaching 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and DAU at 102 million, up 9% year-on-year [3] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected as follows: - 2024E: 25,253 - 2025E: 28,139 - 2026E: 31,439 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 12.1% in 2024, 11.4% in 2025, and 11.7% in 2026 [2][4] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million RMB) forecasts are: - 2024E: -415 - 2025E: 1,028 - 2026E: 1,882 - Non-GAAP EPS (in RMB) is expected to improve from -0.98 in 2024 to 4.47 in 2026 [2][4] Business Segments - Advertising revenue for Q1 2024 was 1.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by product optimization and efficiency improvements [3] - Value-added services revenue reached 2.5 billion RMB, a 17% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by live streaming [3] - Gaming revenue for Q1 2024 was 1 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 13%, with new product launches expected to boost performance in Q2 [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - Gross margin improved to 28% in Q1 2024, marking seven consecutive quarters of sequential improvement [3] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was 640 million RMB, achieving positive cash flow for three consecutive quarters [3]