Group 1: Company Performance - The stock price of Lao Pu Huang Jin (06181) has shown strong performance, closing at 803.5 HKD, surpassing the upper Bollinger Band around 770 HKD, with some investors optimistic about a potential rise to 900 HKD [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055) has also demonstrated robust stock movement, closing at 4.4 HKD, with a peak at 4.52 HKD, and some investors speculating it could reach 6 HKD [5] - Geely Automobile (00175) has seen its stock price rise to 19.25 HKD, but there are concerns about a potential pullback due to resistance at 20 HKD [8] - New Oriental (09901) has experienced a significant surge, closing at 45.7 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong momentum [12] - Pop Mart (09992) has shown impressive growth, closing at 288.2 HKD, with a notable increase in trading volume and an RSI indicator above 80 [14] Group 2: Derivative Products Analysis - For Lao Pu Huang Jin, there is limited choice in call options, with only one product available at an exercise price of around 838 HKD, which has a leverage of 3.5 times and an implied volatility of 73% [3] - In the case of China Southern Airlines, there is only one call option available expiring in January 2026, making it difficult to assess its terms, thus suggesting investors should monitor the stock's performance before making decisions [5] - Geely Automobile has two in-the-money products with exercise prices of 18.8 HKD and 18.9 HKD, both expiring in December 2025, with one showing better terms than the other [9] - For Pop Mart, there are six call options with exercise prices around 300 HKD, with significant differences in terms such as leverage and implied volatility, highlighting the importance of comparing products [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline in new consumption concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Wei Long Mei Wei (卫龙美味) fell by 6.72%, with a latest price of 12.220 and a market capitalization of 29.709 billion [2]. - Bluestone (布鲁可) decreased by 5.91%, priced at 97.950, with a total market value of 24.37 billion [2]. - Naixue's Tea (奈雪的茶) dropped by 5.65%, trading at 1.170, and has a market cap of 1.995 billion [2]. - Hu Shang A Yi (沪上阿姨) saw a decline of 5.57%, with a price of 111.900 and a market capitalization of 11.772 billion [2]. - Miniso (名创优品) decreased by 5.51%, priced at 41.880, with a total market value of 51.164 billion [2]. - Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) fell by 5.14%, trading at 273.400, with a market cap of 367.161 billion [2]. - XPeng Motors (小鹏汽车-W) decreased by 4.77%, with a latest price of 78.850 and a market capitalization of 150.328 billion [2]. - Mixue Group (密雪集团) dropped by 4.68%, priced at 423.400, with a market cap of 160.731 billion [2]. - Gu Ming (古茗) saw a decline of 4.66%, trading at 24.120, with a total market value of 57.362 billion [2]. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) decreased by 4.74%, with a price of 95.550 and a market capitalization of 38.039 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of second-hand market prices for the Labubu series after an initial supply-driven price drop [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The third quarter sales data update, Christmas-themed product releases, and new animation releases are expected to act as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is anticipated to enhance stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 432 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of second-hand market prices for the Labubu series after an initial supply-driven price drop [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The third quarter sales data update, Christmas-themed product releases, and the upcoming animation will serve as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is expected to enhance stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 432 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of the second-hand market prices for the Labubu series [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The bank anticipates that upcoming third-quarter sales data updates, the release of Christmas-themed products, and new animated works will act as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is expected to enhance the accuracy of market insights and drive stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Ratings and Price Targets - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, setting a target price of HKD 432 [1] - Following UBS's report, Pop Mart's stock rose nearly 7%, with JPMorgan raising its rating to "Overweight" and increasing its target price to HKD 320 [1]

Summary of Pop Mart Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: IP Merchandise Market in China Key Points and Arguments Rating Upgrade - **Upgrade to Overweight (OW)**: Rating upgraded from Neutral to Overweight with a new price target (PT) of HK$320, up from HK$300 [1][4][18] - **Recent Share Price Movement**: Share price declined 24% from HK$335.40 (August 26) to HK$254 (October 2), while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) gained 7% during the same period, indicating a conservative investor sentiment [1][19] Financial Forecasts - **Earnings Growth**: Forecasted sales and adjusted earnings growth of 165% and 276% year-over-year (yoy) in 2025, with 204% and 372% growth in 1H25 and 144% and 234% in 2H25, respectively [1][17] - **2026 Projections**: Expected growth of 28% in sales and 29% in adjusted earnings in 2026 [1] - **Valuation**: Trading at 20x 2026 P/E, considered attractive compared to other consumer names [1][22] Upcoming Catalysts - **Operational Results**: 3Q25 operational results expected in late October [1][11] - **Seasonal Sales**: Anticipated strong sales for Halloween and Christmas [1][11] - **New Releases**: Launch of "Labubu & Friends" animation in December and Labubu 4.0 in March/April 2026 [1][11] Sales Momentum - **Strong Demand for IPs**: Continued strong sales momentum for Labubu and Twinkle Twinkle, with Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu sold out despite a 10x increase in production capacity [1][8][22] - **Twinkle Twinkle's Performance**: New plush series "Why So Serious" sold out within minutes, indicating a growing fan base [1][8] Global Market Considerations - **US Market Importance**: Sales contribution from the Americas expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027 [1][29] - **Tariff Impact Preparedness**: Pop Mart has prepared inventory for the US shopping season and can adjust retail prices to offset potential tariff impacts [1][29][30] Supply Chain Strategy - **Global Supply Chain Expansion**: Plans to establish six manufacturing centers globally, with four in China and two elsewhere, to mitigate tariff risks [1][29] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Estimates**: Revised revenue estimates for 2025E at Rmb34.5 billion, 2026E at Rmb44.1 billion, and 2027E at Rmb53.5 billion, reflecting a 5-8% increase [1][26] - **Adjusted EPS Growth**: Adjusted EPS for 2025E raised to Rmb9.09 from Rmb8.66 [1][6] Investment Thesis - **Market Leadership**: Pop Mart is a leader in China's fast-growing IP merchandise market with a strong portfolio of over 100 IPs and a significant global presence [1][11][28] - **Diversified IP Portfolio**: Labubu expected to contribute 35% of 2027 sales, with a diversified portfolio minimizing business disruption risks [1][31] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Pop Mart's strong IP sourcing and monetization capabilities, along with its global expansion strategy, position it favorably for long-term growth in the consumer market [1][28]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - The conference call discusses the new consumption sector, focusing on leading companies **Lao Feng Xiang** and **Pop Mart** [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance and Valuation**: Lao Feng Xiang and Pop Mart are expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating that if Pop Mart's profit reaches **16 to 18 billion CNY** in 2026, its market capitalization could reach **500 billion HKD**. Similarly, Lao Feng Xiang's profit is projected to be around **6.5 billion CNY**, leading to a market cap of at least **200 billion HKD**. Both companies have over **50% upside potential** from current valuation levels [1][3]. - **Market Sentiment**: The new consumption sector has been active recently, driven by the strong performance of Lao Feng Xiang and Pop Mart, both achieving approximately **150% growth** in the third quarter. However, there is uncertainty regarding growth expectations for 2026 due to the influence of fashion trends on the sector [2][3]. - **Growth Projections**: If market sentiment improves and these companies can achieve a growth rate of **30% to 40%** in 2026, their valuations may be considered undervalued [2][3]. - **Other Beneficiaries**: Other new consumption companies such as **Mi Xue**, **Gu Ming**, and **Da Hang Ke Gong** are expected to benefit from the overall positive sentiment in the industry. Da Hang Ke Gong has shown growth rates exceeding **50%** for two consecutive years, with a projected valuation of just over **10 times** earnings for 2026 [4]. Additional Important Points - **Investor Outlook**: The new consumption market is expected to maintain a **50% upside potential** at least until 2026. Unlike many other sectors, the confidence in new consumption companies increases as their stock prices rise, due to strong fundamentals and their connection to consumer tastes [5]. - **Valuation Challenges**: The market's uncertainty regarding growth expectations for new consumption companies makes valuation difficult, as these companies are heavily influenced by changing fashion trends [2][5]. - **Overall Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards the new consumption sector is optimistic, with expectations of a positive impact on related companies in the A-share market, such as **Ruo Yu Chen**, **Zhong Chong Shares**, and **Chang Hong Ji** [4].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has found new growth momentum as its stock price rebounds, closing at 288.2 HKD with a market capitalization of 387.036 billion HKD, reflecting a significant increase of 20.4 billion HKD from the previous day [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 16, Pop Mart opened at 278.6 HKD and closed at 288.2 HKD, marking a rise of 5.57% [2][3]. - The trading volume was 23.7073 million shares, with a turnover rate of 1.77% [3]. Group 2: Celebrity Engagements - David Beckham was spotted at a Pop Mart store in Shanghai, generating significant media attention [4]. - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, visited Pop Mart during his trip to China, participating in the 10th anniversary exhibition of THE MONSTERS series [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion CNY, up 362.8% [6]. - The gross profit margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3% [6]. Group 4: Product and Market Strategy - Pop Mart has seen significant success with its LABUBU series, contributing to high sales figures, with 13 artist IPs generating over 1 billion CNY each [6]. - The company is focusing on "lean production automation" to enhance production capacity, which has increased to ten times the previous year's levels for plush toys [8].

| 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 48.16 亿元 | +5.75 亿元 | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 39.95 亿元 | +10.20 亿元 | | 中芯国际(00981) | 35.00 亿元 | +5390.90 万元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 30.20 亿元 | -2.35 亿元 | | 华虹半导体(01347) | 21.48 亿元 | -1195.71 万元 | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 20.81 亿元 | +2.85 亿元 | | 紫金黄金国际(02259) | 19.49 亿元 | +17.38 亿元 | | 中兴通讯(00763) | 16.86 亿元 | +1.56 亿元 | | 药捷安康-B(02617) | 16.79 亿元 | +3899.32 万元 | | 巨子生物(02367) | 16.39 亿元 | +4.24 亿元 | 深港通（南向）十大活跃成交公司 | 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 小米集团-W(0 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 15.822 billion HKD from northbound trading on October 16, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 8.672 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 7.15 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most net bought stocks included Zijin Mining International (02259), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Alibaba-W (09988) [1] - The most net sold stocks included SMIC (00981), GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367), and Tencent (00700) [1] Group 2: Detailed Stock Transactions - Alibaba-W had a net inflow of 2.696 billion HKD, with total transactions amounting to 4.816 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi Group-W recorded a net inflow of 2.508 billion HKD, with total transactions of 3.995 billion HKD [2] - SMIC had a net outflow of 539.09 million HKD, with total transactions of 3.5 billion HKD [2] - Tencent experienced a net outflow of 235 million HKD, with total transactions of 3.02 billion HKD [2] - Zijin Mining International received a net inflow of 1.738 billion HKD, following its inclusion in the Stock Connect list [4] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Zijin Mining International is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% in production from 2025 to 2027, increasing total output from 45 tons to 65 tons, leading to a 30% compound annual growth rate in profits [4] - Xiaomi Group's stock price has been volatile due to various news events, with expectations of a decline in gross profit margin in the second half of the year [5] - Alibaba's stock received a boost from the launch of the Tmall Double 11 shopping festival and an upgrade in capital expenditure forecasts by Goldman Sachs [5] - Kangfang Biopharma (09926) received a net inflow of 6.02 billion HKD following the acceptance of its clinical research results for a new drug in a top medical journal [6] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net inflow of 4.7 billion HKD, with expectations of strong sales growth from new IPs [7]