Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (70.56%), COSCO Shipping Energy (69.91%), and GCL-Poly Energy (69.65%) [1][2] - Xiaomi Group-W, Meituan-W, and Pop Mart have seen the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +1.967 billion, +1.692 billion, and +1.514 billion respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the same period include Innovent Biologics (-2.053 billion), SMIC (-1.978 billion), and Alibaba-W (-1.651 billion) [1][2] Hong Kong Stock Connect Latest Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728): 9.793 billion shares, 70.56% holding ratio [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138): 906 million shares, 69.91% holding ratio [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330): 282 million shares, 69.65% holding ratio [1] - China Shenhua (01088): 2.284 billion shares, 67.62% holding ratio [1] - Kaisa Group (01108): 168 million shares, 67.37% holding ratio [1] Recent Increases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): +1.967 billion, +42.788 million shares [1] - Meituan-W (03690): +1.692 billion, +17.904 million shares [1] - Pop Mart (09992): +1.514 billion, +5.498 million shares [1] - China Mobile (00941): +1.438 billion, +16.863 million shares [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): +1.434 billion, +18.918 million shares [1] Recent Decreases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Innovent Biologics (01801): -2.053 billion, -23.641 million shares [2] - SMIC (00981): -1.978 billion, -28.625 million shares [2] - Alibaba-W (09988): -1.651 billion, -10.691 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): -1.475 billion, -2.426 million shares [2] - Yingfu Fund (02800): -1.259 billion, -48.701 million shares [2]

Summary of Pop Mart International Limited Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD $49 billion - **Core Business**: Specializes in blind box collectibles and IP-driven toys, primarily through direct-to-consumer retail channels Key Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Underperform - **Price Target**: HKD 225, implying an 18% potential downside as of October 15, 2025 [1][13][17] - **Growth Concerns**: Anticipated growth deceleration due to single IP fatigue, particularly with the Labubu franchise, which constitutes about 35% of the company's revenue mix [3][15][24] - **Market Dynamics**: Warning signs include declining secondary market volumes, price deterioration (40% drop in select Labubu models), and reduced digital engagement metrics [2][10][30] Financial Performance - **2024 Performance**: 350% return; 222% year-to-date [1][16] - **Revenue Projections**: Expected to peak in 2025 with a forecasted 145% YoY growth, followed by a projected 20% CAGR from RMB 32 billion in FY2025 to RMB 66 billion by FY2029 [21][41] - **Profit Margins**: Current high margins (32%+) are expected to decline as marketing expenses rise and competition increases [22][48] Risks and Concerns - **Single-IP Dependency**: Heavy reliance on Labubu creates vulnerabilities; potential consumer fatigue could lead to a significant decline in overall revenue and margins [15][24][26] - **Market Saturation**: Blind box penetration in China is nearing maturity, limiting growth potential [48] - **Unrealistic Consensus Expectations**: Current forecasts suggest a market cap of USD $63 billion by 2027, which is deemed overly optimistic given the company's challenges [10][47][44] Valuation Insights - **Current Valuation**: Trading at 21.8x P/E and 0.6x PEG [23][40] - **Valuation Methodology**: Target price reflects a cautious approach, applying an 18x NTM+1 P/E multiple, accounting for single-IP concentration and secondary market risks [15][23] - **Scenario Analysis**: - Base Case: 18% downside to HKD 225 - Bear Case: 58% downside to HKD 114 - Bull Case: 11% upside to HKD 303 [11][30] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Investors are advised to take profits at current price levels due to the unbalanced risk-reward profile, with substantial downside risks not reflected in the current stock price [12][19][28]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Baijiu Industry - The Baijiu industry experienced a seasonal sales decline of approximately 20% during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with high-end brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performing relatively well. Inventory levels have not significantly decreased, and a slight upward trend is expected in the future [1][3][4] - Strong brand power and good sales performance are crucial for companies in this sector, with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining advantages. Companies with flexible operations, such as Zhenjiu and Laojiao, are also worth monitoring [5] 2. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector saw a slowdown in growth during Q3 2025, with beverage and dairy products showing improvement from a low base, while condiments maintained steady growth. Leading companies like Dongpeng, Nongfu Spring, and Yanjing Beer performed well and are recommended for investment [1][6] 3. Beauty Industry - The beauty industry showed overall good performance with no significant slowdown in growth. Some companies even exceeded their Q2 growth rates. High-growth companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa are recommended for investment [1][7] 4. Gold and Jewelry Sector - Leading companies in the gold and jewelry sector continued to grow rapidly, benefiting from rising gold prices and price increase strategies. Companies like Laofengxiang and Zhouliufu reported impressive growth, with Laofengxiang's single-store revenue reaching up to 200% growth in September [1][8] 5. Trendy Toys and Supermarket Reform - In the trendy toy sector, Pop Mart remains in a high growth phase, while Miniso's Q3 report showed promising data. In the supermarket reform sector, companies like Bubugao and Huijia Times are experiencing performance releases, and ATO's rapid growth in bedding products is noteworthy [1][9] 6. Pork Industry - Pork prices saw a slight decline this week, but demand for secondary fattening is increasing, stabilizing prices at the bottom. Companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan, are expected to seize more opportunities as breeding sow capacity continues to decrease [1][18][17] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector faced challenges in Q3 due to the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, leading to a less optimistic outlook for domestic demand. However, white goods showed stable performance, with leading companies like Haier and Midea expected to achieve near double-digit revenue growth [2][13] Other Notable Trends - The light industry, particularly the paper industry, is expected to see a turning point in Q4, with potential price increases in packaging and cultural paper [14] - The agricultural sector is focusing on the pork industry, with ongoing capacity reduction impacting future supply and price trends [17] - The pet sector is showing strong growth, with companies like Zhongchong and Guibao Pet expected to perform well [20] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends across various industries as discussed in the conference call records, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery in the paper industry and light consumer goods [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic demand, with a year-on-year decrease in transaction area narrowing to -22.46% as of October 17. The external sales are boosted by strong performances on platforms like Amazon, with notable growth in GMV for several companies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for regulatory enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S., which may benefit established brands. The HNB product line is expanding globally, with significant market entry planned in Italy [10][19]. - The paper and packaging industries are experiencing price adjustments due to supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for price increases in corrugated and boxboard paper. The metal packaging sector is also anticipated to see improvements in profitability due to upcoming price hikes [11][12]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are stabilizing, with transaction areas showing a reduced decline. External sales are recovering, particularly in the U.S. market, aided by a favorable exchange rate and potential interest rate cuts [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are expected to have high earnings growth and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - Regulatory support for legal brands is strengthening in the U.S., with 80% of voters favoring stricter enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes. The HNB product line is set to expand in major markets [10][19]. - Recommended companies include 思摩尔国际 and 中烟香港, which are positioned well for growth [10]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand. The metal packaging sector is also poised for profitability improvements with anticipated price hikes [11][12]. - Key players include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The light consumer goods sector is gearing up for a busy Q4 with the Double Eleven shopping festival, focusing on brand penetration and product innovation [15][16]. - The trendy toy market is seeing strong performance from leading brands, with new product launches and collaborations enhancing market presence [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative collaboration between Jingdezhen ceramics and global pop culture, showcasing how traditional craftsmanship is being revitalized through modern trends and partnerships with well-known anime IPs. Group 1: Collaboration with Pop Culture - Jingdezhen ceramics has partnered with international trendy toy brand Pop Mart to create a ceramic figurine of Molly, blending traditional craftsmanship with contemporary design [3][5] - The collaboration with the anime IP Miffy has resulted in products like the "Miffy Garden Blue and White Cup Gift Box," which combines Miffy's character with traditional blue and white porcelain techniques, appealing to younger consumers [5][7] Group 2: Revitalization of Traditional Craft - The Changnanli World Ceramic Trendy Town serves as a platform where traditional ceramics meet modern trends, showcasing the vibrant fusion of ancient craftsmanship with contemporary aesthetics [7][9] - Jingdezhen ceramics is adopting a younger and trendier approach by engaging in design competitions and forming industry alliances, thereby integrating into various aspects of modern life [9][11] Group 3: Cultural Significance - The ancient city of Jingdezhen is positioning itself as a hub of trendsetting, using a language that resonates globally to narrate new stories rooted in deep cultural confidence [11]

Group 1: Investment and Financing Activities - Elbi Catering completed a Series A financing round of 50 million RMB, focusing on operational management services in coffee, tea, desserts, and light meals [3][4] - Velotric announced the completion of a Series B financing round, led by Shunwei Capital, to enhance its electric bike product lines for daily commuting and outdoor adventures [5] - Twelve Yao secured 10 million RMB in angel financing, aimed at upgrading non-heritage food research and expanding its smart production base and market channels [6] - Zunyan Supermarket completed a Series C financing round of several billion RMB, focusing on digital technology applications in supermarket operations [7] - Zhenhua Capital invested over 100 million RMB in Shuaike Pet Products, a comprehensive supplier in the pet food industry [8] - Zhefu Customization completed an angel financing round of 3 million RMB to enhance technology development and market expansion in the custom clothing sector [9] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Insights - The cycling economy is emerging as a significant market opportunity, with the number of bicycle-related enterprises in China reaching approximately 4.68 million, showing a continuous growth trend over the past decade [23] - Dong Yuhui's live streaming event during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival generated sales of 300 million RMB in just three days, attracting nearly 70 million viewers [24] - Japan's rice prices are nearing historical highs, with the retail price of 5 kg of rice reaching 4,205 yen (approximately 196 RMB), impacting household consumption and restaurant operations [25] - China's express delivery business volume has surpassed 1.5 billion packages this year, indicating a robust growth in the logistics sector and supporting online consumption [26] Group 3: Company Developments - Laopuyuan announced its third price adjustment of the year, with gold prices reaching approximately 1,290 RMB per gram, reflecting the ongoing increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [10] - Guangzhou Yujian Xiaomian submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting a revenue of 703 million RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [11] - Fat Donglai's founder revealed that the company has 4.1 billion RMB in cash with no loans, emphasizing a focus on social responsibility and employee well-being [12]

Market Overview - On October 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.48%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 153.005 billion, comprising HKD 79.654 billion in buying and HKD 73.351 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 6.303 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - Southbound trading through the Stock Connect (Shenzhen) recorded a total transaction amount of HKD 58.715 billion, with buying at HKD 29.681 billion and selling at HKD 29.034 billion, leading to a net buying of HKD 0.647 billion [1] - Southbound trading through the Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total transaction amount of HKD 94.290 billion, with buying at HKD 49.973 billion and selling at HKD 44.317 billion, resulting in a net buying of HKD 5.656 billion [1] Active Stocks - Alibaba-W had the highest transaction amount among southbound stocks at HKD 137.12 billion, with a net selling of HKD 21.53 billion and a closing price drop of 4.22% [1] - Other notable stocks included SMIC with a transaction amount of HKD 98.39 billion and a net selling of HKD 15.78 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W with a transaction amount of HKD 58.48 billion and a net buying of HKD 4.14 billion [2] Continuous Net Buying - Two stocks, Xiaomi Group-W and Pop Mart, have seen continuous net buying for over three days, with Xiaomi Group-W leading at a total net buying of HKD 74.03 billion over 10 days, followed by Pop Mart with HKD 14.68 billion over 4 days [2]

Market Overview - On October 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.48%, closing at 25,247.10 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net purchase of 6.303 billion HKD [1][3] - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on the same day was 153.005 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 6.303 billion HKD [1][3] Trading Activity - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the trading volume was 94.290 billion HKD with a net purchase of 5.656 billion HKD; in the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the trading volume was 58.715 billion HKD with a net purchase of 0.647 billion HKD [1][3] - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai Stock Connect was Alibaba-W, with a trading amount of 8.411 billion HKD, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W, with trading amounts of 5.454 billion HKD and 3.257 billion HKD, respectively [1][2] Stock Performance - In terms of net buying, Meituan-W led with a net purchase of 648 million HKD, despite its closing price dropping by 4.30% [1][2] - Alibaba-W experienced the highest net selling amount of 1.112 billion HKD, with a closing price decline of 4.22% [1][2] - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W also topped the trading volume with 5.302 billion HKD, while SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W followed with 4.385 billion HKD and 2.591 billion HKD, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has seen a continuous net buying from southbound funds for four consecutive days, with a total net buying amount of 1.468 billion HKD and a cumulative stock price increase of 5.52% [2] Group 1: Trading Activity - On October 17, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 53.476 billion HKD, with a net selling amount of 1.678 billion HKD [2] - Pop Mart's trading volume through the Hong Kong Stock Connect on October 17 was 2.695 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 394 million HKD [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Pop Mart has experienced a cumulative net buying amount of 1.468 billion HKD over the past four days, during which its stock price has risen by 5.52% [2]

Core Insights - The stock price of Pop Mart has been declining since reaching a peak market value of HKD 440 billion two months ago, currently stabilizing around HKD 350 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of the blind box business [1][11][13] Company Performance - Pop Mart reported its best half-year performance since inception in August 2023, with revenue of HKD 13.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of HKD 4.574 billion, up 396.5% [11] - The LABUBU series, part of THE MONSTERS franchise, contributed HKD 4.814 billion in revenue, increasing its share of total revenue from 13.7% in 2024 to 34.7% [11] - Following the strong performance, Pop Mart's stock price surged to approximately HKD 340, pushing its market value above HKD 440 billion [11] Market Dynamics - Despite the initial success, Pop Mart's stock price experienced a significant correction, dropping over 25% from its peak by mid-September 2023 [11][13] - The company faced challenges with its jewelry brand popop, which saw lackluster sales compared to its toy products, and a decline in the secondary market prices for LABUBU collectibles [13] Brand and IP Development - The LABUBU character gained global popularity after being featured by BLACKPINK member Lisa on social media in April 2024, leading to a surge in demand [9] - The company has expanded its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, where LABUBU has garnered a substantial fan base [7][9] Future Outlook - The current stock price adjustment may be a minor setback in the broader context of industry development, with potential for future growth if Pop Mart continues to innovate and develop strong IP [15]