[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary [Table_Title] ] 春节前后，港股如何反应？ ——港股市场策略展望 报告摘要： （4）港股天量 IPO 对市场影响不大，影响主要在于 IPO 过后 6 个月 的解禁高峰。典型的例如 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、21 年 二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮都与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属（紫金黄金国际、南山铝业国际）+茶饮（蜜雪冰城） 的解禁潮，中大型规模公司的解禁规模 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的 解禁小高峰。由于港股通账户并不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的 上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资 金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation of returns stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - Strong demand for computing power driven by AI applications is expected to continue, with significant investments from major cloud providers [8]. - The hardware supply-demand imbalance is spreading across various sectors, leading to price increases [8]. - New technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) are anticipated to create additional demand [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include: - Semiconductor manufacturing: SMIC (688981, Buy), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347, Buy) - Testing and packaging: Changdian Technology (600584, Buy), Tongfu Microelectronics (002156, Buy), and others [9]. - Server storage: Lianqi Technology (688008, Buy) - CPUs: Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Longxin Technology (688047, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Passive components: Sanhua Group (300408, Buy), Fenghua Advanced Technology (000636, Not Rated) [9]. - Server manufacturing: Industrial Fulian (601138, Buy), Huaqin Technology (603296, Buy) [9]. - Analog and power chips: Naxin Micro (688052, Buy), Sierui Technology (688536, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Semiconductor equipment: Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy), Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy), and others [9]. - Optical devices/chips: Zhishang Technology (301486, Not Rated), Tianfu Communication (300394, Not Rated), and others [9]. AI Applications and Edge Computing - Key targets in edge AI applications include: - AI main control chips: Amlogic (688099, Buy), Hengxuan Technology (688608, Buy) - Edge storage: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986, Buy), Bawei Storage (688525, Buy) [10]. - Terminal manufacturers: Hikvision (002415, Buy), Luxshare Precision (002475, Buy), BYD Electronics (00285, Not Rated), and others [10]. - Core components for AI edge: Huanxu Electronics (601231, Buy), Sunny Optical Technology (02382, Buy), and others [10].

Group 1 - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) has applied for a patent titled "Mask Layout and Its Graphic Addition Method," with publication number CN121454857A, and the application date is July 2024 [1] - The patent describes a mask layout that includes effective graphics aligned with the optimal resolution direction and virtual graphics positioned in blank areas, allowing for improved resolution management during photolithography processes [1] - The method aims to maximize the allowable width of virtual graphics without imaging on the wafer, thereby enhancing the yield and reliability of mask layouts while minimizing the risk of collapse or detachment of virtual graphics [1] Group 2 - SMIC, established in 2000 and located in Shanghai, primarily engages in the manufacturing of computers, communications, and other electronic devices, with a registered capital of 244 million USD [2] - The company has made investments in four enterprises, participated in 129 bidding projects, and holds 150 trademark records along with 5,000 patent records, in addition to 446 administrative licenses [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip Leader ETF (516640), which opened down by 1.75% at 1.122 yuan on February 6 [1] - Major holdings in the Chip Leader ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including Cambrian (down 1.49%), SMIC (down 1.48%), and GigaDevice (down 2.43%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, managed by Fortune Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 14.35% since its inception on August 19, 2021, and a return of 2.83% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - On February 5, SMIC's stock fell by 2.65% with a trading volume of 4.983 billion yuan, while the financing buy-in amounted to 628 million yuan and the net financing purchase was 180 million yuan [1] - As of February 5, the total financing and securities lending balance for SMIC was 13.318 billion yuan, with financing balance at 13.302 billion yuan, representing 5.95% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - In terms of securities lending, SMIC had a securities lending repayment of 12,700 shares and a securities lending sell-out of 15,800 shares, with a sell-out amount of 1.7674 million yuan, while the securities lending balance was 16.8648 million yuan, which is low compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, SMIC had 336,200 shareholders, an increase of 33.27% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 25.41% to 6,134 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, SMIC reported operating revenue of 49.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.818 billion yuan, up 41.09% year-on-year [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders as of September 30, 2025, notable changes included a decrease in holdings by several ETFs, while new shareholders included the Jiashi Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip ETF and the E Fund CSI 300 ETF [2]

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF (159813) opened down 1.34% at 1.182 yuan on February 6 [1] - Major holdings in the semiconductor ETF experienced declines, including SMIC down 1.48%, Haiguang Information down 1.00%, and Cambrian down 1.49% [1] - The performance benchmark for the semiconductor ETF is the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index return rate, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Since its establishment on April 17, 2020, the semiconductor ETF has returned 79.62%, with a return of 3.35% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced a significant decline, entering a technical bear market, while A-shares have shown a contrasting upward trend, raising questions about the performance of the tech sector in Hong Kong compared to mainland China [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index peaked at 6715 points on October 3, 2025, but has since fallen to 5366 points by February 4, 2026, marking a decline of over 20% [1]. - In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from a low of 3815 points on December 16, 2025, to 4102 points, achieving a gain of over 6% [1]. - The tech-focused indices in mainland China, such as the Sci-Tech 200 and Sci-Tech 100, have shown impressive gains of 19.30% and 18.49%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Fund Flows - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased from 24.56 times on September 30, 2025, to 22.87 times, indicating a valuation at the 27.27% percentile over the past decade [3]. - Despite the decline in the index, net inflows from southbound funds have remained positive, with inflows of 925 billion, 1219 billion, 229 billion, and 690 billion yuan over the last four months [3]. Group 3: Component Stock Performance - Among the 30 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index, only 5 stocks have risen, while 25 have declined, with significant drops in companies like Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi, all experiencing declines exceeding 30% [3]. - Major holdings such as Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent have also seen substantial declines, with Alibaba down 9.89% and Tencent down 15.84% [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Allocation - Recent rumors regarding increased taxes on internet value-added services have negatively impacted market sentiment, despite being refuted by credible sources [6]. - Some funds have adjusted their regional allocations, reducing exposure to Hong Kong stocks like Alibaba while increasing positions in U.S. stocks such as Google, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [6][9]. - The latest quarterly reports indicate a trend of reallocating assets from Hong Kong to U.S. markets, particularly in sectors like AI and technology, which have shown better performance [9][13].

Core Viewpoint - The total margin financing and securities lending balance in A-shares decreased to 26,808.60 billion yuan, a reduction of 120.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Financing and Securities Lending - The margin financing and securities lending balance is 26,808.60 billion yuan, down by 120.12 billion yuan (-0.45%) from the previous day [2] - The trading volume for margin financing and securities lending was 1,993.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.13 billion yuan, accounting for 9.08% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2: Industry and Stock Performance - Among the 31 primary industries, 9 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the public utilities sector leading with a net inflow of 3.86 billion yuan [2] - The coal, construction decoration, and basic chemicals industries also saw significant net financing inflows [2] - A total of 20 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 9.44 billion yuan [2][3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Hikvision, SMIC, Shiyun Circuit, Bosheng New Materials, China Railway, Shanxi Black Cat, Pingtan Development, China Satellite, and Dongshan Precision [2][3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down by 1.97%, closing at 26,354.34, a decrease of 530.90 points with a trading volume of 6.6 billion [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42%, closing at 5,275.12, down by 131.01 points with a trading volume of 3.3 billion [2] - The Hang Seng Biotech Index decreased by 1.55%, closing at 15,006.22, with a trading volume of 0.08 billion [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.88%, closing at 8,922.14, with a trading volume of 3.7 billion [2] - The Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 1.92%, closing at 4,032.33, with a trading volume of 5.4 billion [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with Baidu Group falling over 4%, and Alibaba, Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, and Hua Hong Semiconductor all dropping over 3% [2] - Other notable declines included SenseTime, JD Group, Tencent Holdings, and SMIC, each down by more than 2% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Baidu Group-SW decreased by 4.33%, closing at 134.80 [3] - Kingdee International fell by 4.30%, closing at 10.90 [3] - JD Health dropped by 3.96%, closing at 58.25 [3] - Alibaba-W declined by 3.82%, closing at 153.50 [3] - Kuaishou-W decreased by 3.70%, closing at 70.30 [3] - Bilibili-W fell by 3.29%, closing at 234.80 [3] - NetEase-S dropped by 3.06%, closing at 186.70 [3] - Other notable declines included Xpeng Motors, SenseTime, JD Group-SW, Tencent Holdings, and SMIC, all experiencing declines between 2.15% and 2.90% [3] Commodity Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to show weakness, with China Gold International, Jiangxi Copper, Lingbao Gold, and Shandong Gold all dropping over 5% [4] - China Gold International fell by 5.36%, closing at 180.00 [4] - Jiangxi Copper decreased by 5.34%, closing at 41.10 [4] - Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold both fell by 5.11%, closing at 20.78 and 36.74 respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) opened with a decline of 1.60%, indicating a negative market sentiment towards the semiconductor sector on February 6 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) opened at 2.525 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.60% [1] - Since its establishment on September 30, 2022, the ETF has achieved a return of 157.22% [1] - The ETF has recorded a return of 4.60% over the past month [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Key holdings in the ETF include: - SMIC (中芯国际) down 1.48% [1] - Haiguang Information (海光信息) down 1.00% [1] - Cambricon (寒武纪) down 1.49% [1] - Lattice Semiconductor (澜起科技) down 1.87% [1] - Zhongwei Company (中微公司) down 1.23% [1] - Tuojing Technology (拓荆科技) down 0.37% [1] - Chipone (芯原股份) down 3.69% [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹公司) down 1.90% [1] - Hu Silicon Industry (沪硅产业) unchanged [1] - Dongxin Co. (东芯股份) down 1.37% [1]