Core Insights - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The rise in foreign exchange reserves in August is attributed to expectations regarding monetary policies of major economies, macroeconomic data, and a decline in the US dollar index, leading to an overall increase in global financial asset prices [1] - The foreign exchange reserves have reached a new high since January 2016, indicating China's enhanced capability to mitigate various shocks [1] Group 2: Economic Stability and Outlook - Despite increasing external uncertainties, China's economy remains solid, with significant advantages and potential [1] - The country possesses ample macroeconomic tools and policy space to support domestic demand, contributing to the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] - Factors such as diversified trade regional layout, optimized trade structure, and the growing attractiveness of RMB assets to international capital are expected to help maintain a basic balance in international payments and stabilize foreign exchange reserves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall asset quality of the banking industry has remained stable and improved, with a focus on risk management and control in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Quality Overview - As of mid-year, the overall asset quality of the banking industry is stable and has further improved, with 20 A-share listed banks showing a decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios compared to the beginning of the year [2][3]. - Among the listed banks, Xian Bank, Qilu Bank, and Chongqing Bank reported the most significant reductions in NPL ratios, with decreases of 12, 10, and 8 basis points, respectively [4][5]. - Conversely, some banks, including Guizhou Bank and Minsheng Bank, experienced increases in their NPL ratios compared to the beginning of the year [6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Risks - There is a notable upward trend in NPL ratios in specific sectors, particularly in corporate real estate and retail personal loans [7][8]. - Qingnong Bank reported a significant increase in its real estate NPL ratio, rising by 14.15 percentage points to 21.32%, with real estate NPLs now comprising 61.54% of its total NPLs [8]. - Guizhou Bank also saw a rise in its real estate NPL ratio, which increased by 70 basis points to 1.75% [8]. Group 3: Retail Credit Concerns - In the retail credit sector, there has been an increase in NPL ratios for personal consumption loans and credit cards, with 8 out of 14 banks reporting higher NPL ratios for credit card receivables compared to the beginning of the year [9][10]. - Chongqing Bank's credit card NPL ratio increased by 1.15 percentage points to 4.19%, while Lanzhou Bank's rose by 1.06 percentage points to 2.85% [9]. - Among 12 banks disclosing personal consumption loan NPL ratios, 7 reported increases, with notable rises from China Merchants Bank and Lanzhou Bank [10]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Banks are increasingly prioritizing risk management, with several executives emphasizing the need for enhanced risk control measures and digital risk management capabilities [11][12]. - Beijing Bank plans to strengthen its provisioning efforts and improve the management of new NPLs, while ICBC expects a slowdown in the deterioration of personal consumption loans due to supportive economic policies [11]. - Industry leaders, including those from Industrial Bank and China Merchants Bank, are focusing on risk mitigation in real estate and credit card sectors, indicating a shift from high incidence to a more controlled environment [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Currently, the report has a phased and clear bullish view on the bond market [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the return on 10-year Treasury bonds are relatively consistent, and the economy may have stabilized at a low level in the first half of 2025, but there is still downward pressure [1][4]. - The loan growth rate continues to decline, the proportion of loans on the asset side of banks tends to decrease, and the financial investment proportion of large banks has increased since early 2023 [1]. - The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities of listed banks has declined quarter by quarter, and it is expected to further decline in the next few years [1]. - The decline in bank liability costs will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of government bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 From the Semi-annual Report of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economic and Bank Operating Pressures - **From the Performance of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economy** - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market can reflect the nominal GDP growth rate to a certain extent, and it is more consistent with the return on 10-year Treasury bonds than the nominal GDP growth rate [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market was 0.0%, and the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent was 2.4%. The growth rate of the entire A-share market excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals was under pressure, reflecting the large pressure on real - economy growth [4][10]. - **From the Performance of the Bank Sector to See the Economy** - The performance of the banking industry is closely related to the economy. In the past two years, the performance growth of the banking industry has been significantly under pressure, and the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline [13][16]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.42%, a record low, and the average net interest margin of various types of listed banks has also decreased significantly [16][18]. - **From the Liabilities of the Entire A-share Market to See the Financing Demand** - Since the first quarter of 2024, the long - term borrowing of the entire A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals) has stagnated, reflecting the weak financing demand of market - oriented enterprises [20]. - The social financing growth rate generally leads the nominal GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 quarters, and the social financing growth rate may decline in the next few months [23]. 3.2 What Changes Have Occurred in the Bank's Assets and Liabilities? - **The Loan Growth Rates of Large and Small and Medium - Sized Banks Have Both Declined** - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2011 [25]. - The growth rate of personal housing loans is under pressure of negative growth, and the loan growth rates of large and small and medium - sized banks have both declined. The proportion of loans of listed banks has tended to decline since the second quarter of 2024 [25][29]. - **The Proportion of Deposits on the Liability Side of Large Banks Has Decreased, and the Proportion of Deposits of Small and Medium - Sized Banks Has Remained Stable** - Since early 2023, the proportion of deposits of the six major banks has decreased from 81.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 76.0% in the second quarter of 2025, while the average proportion of deposits of listed joint - stock banks has increased [25]. - The large - scale banks' corporate deposit growth has slowed down, and the large - scale banks' dependence on non - bank inter - bank deposits has increased [39][45]. 3.3 Which Banks Had More Financial Investment Growth in the First Half of 2025? - Since early 2023, the proportion of financial investment of large banks has rebounded. As of the end of June 2025, the overall financial investment of A - share listed banks reached 97.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of assets [51]. - In the first half of 2025, ICBC and CCB had more financial investment growth, while a small number of joint - stock banks' financial investment decreased. The financial investment increments of large banks, joint - stock banks, and city and rural commercial banks were all significant [55][59]. - As of the end of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the bond investment of the four major banks reached 21.2%, the highest since 2017, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 18.3% [60]. 3.4 How Much Has the Cost of Interest - Bearing Liabilities of Banks Decreased? - In 2025, the decline of the current deposit ratio has slowed down. Since early 2018, the current deposit ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to further decline in the future, but the decline rate may slow down [61]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the deposit interest - payment rate has decreased significantly. The overall deposit interest - payment rate of A - share listed banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 32BP [65]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities has declined quarter by quarter. It is expected to further decline in the next few years, and may drop below 1.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [67]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - It is expected that the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next five years, which will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and the return on 10 - year Treasury bonds will follow the decline of bank interest - bearing liabilities [69]. - In the low - interest - rate era, it is recommended to reduce the return expectation of bond investment, and commercial bank self - operation should increase the allocation of government bonds [72][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the contribution of financial asset disposal gains from AC and OCI accounts to revenue reached 5.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The investment income growth rate for 42 listed banks was 23.6%, with AC, OCI, and TPL gains showing year-on-year growth rates of 134.7%, 79.0%, and -8.4% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the increase in disposal gains does not necessarily indicate a significant increase in asset disposal scale, as market conditions and strategies vary among banks [2]. Financial Asset Disposal Gains - The contribution of AC and OCI financial asset disposal gains to revenue was 5.2%, up 2.9 percentage points from 2024, with AC asset disposal gains contributing 2.6% [2]. - Among different types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest contribution from AC and OCI disposal gains, reaching 11.0%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Specific banks such as Jiangyin Bank, Sunong Bank, and Zijin Bank had high disposal gain ratios relative to their revenue, at 28.9%, 26.7%, and 22.7% respectively [2]. OCI Floating Profit Situation - The overall OCI floating profit decreased compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for 12.6% of the estimated profit for 2025 [3]. - Major state-owned banks like CCB and ABC reported significant OCI floating profits, with balances exceeding 30 billion [3]. - The average contribution of OCI floating profits to profits for city and rural commercial banks was notably high, with Ningbo Bank's ratio reaching 35% [3][6]. Sector Trends - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate and consumer spending [7]. - The report suggests a focus on banks with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank, and those with dividend strategies like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [7]. - Attention is also drawn to banks with potential convertible bond conversion expectations, including Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank [7].

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is under pressure, with declining revenue and profit, while retail credit risks are on the rise. Banks are exploring new retail transformation paths, focusing on expanding retail AUM (Assets Under Management) to enhance non-interest income and reshape their business models towards wealth management [1][3][12]. Retail Banking Performance - In the first half of 2025, three banks (Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank) reported retail revenue contributions exceeding 50%, while most banks with a focus on corporate banking had contributions below 40% [3]. - Among the 12 sample banks, 10 reported a decline in retail revenue, and 7 saw a decrease in total profit. However, three banks (Industrial and Commercial Bank, China CITIC Bank, and China Everbright Bank) showed positive changes in retail profit [3][5]. - The retail revenue and profit statistics for major banks indicate a mixed performance, with some banks like ICBC showing a profit increase of 46.05% [5]. Retail AUM Insights - Retail AUM has become a key indicator for banks, with the top three banks (ICBC, CCB, ABC) exceeding 20 trillion yuan in AUM. ICBC leads with 24 trillion yuan [7]. - All 13 banks reported positive growth in retail AUM compared to the beginning of the year, with notable increases from banks like SPD Bank [7][8]. - Retail AUM is defined as a measure of a bank's comprehensive retail financial capabilities, including personal deposits, wealth management, and insurance [7][8]. Wealth Management Transition - The shift towards retail AUM signifies a transition from traditional deposit-based models to wealth management-focused strategies, enhancing non-interest income [8][12]. - Banks are emphasizing the importance of retail AUM in their earnings reports, with many highlighting their strategies to grow this metric [9][12]. - The growth of retail AUM is expected to support the increase in intermediary business income, as banks focus on expanding their customer base [12][14]. Strategic Focus of Banks - Different banks are adopting varied strategies for wealth management. For instance, China Merchants Bank emphasizes retaining customers over merely selling products, while Ping An Bank aims to enhance its insurance business as a growth engine [14][15]. - ICBC highlights its extensive customer base and wealth management coverage, while China Bank focuses on its infrastructure advantages [15][16]. - The overall trend indicates a move away from high-risk retail asset strategies towards building a sustainable wealth management framework [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the quarterly review changes of the FTSE China A50 index announced by FTSE Russell, highlighting the inclusion and exclusion of specific stocks and the implications for investment funds tracking the index [5][6]. Group 1: Index Changes - Four stocks, including BeiGene, NewEase, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Xuchuang, will be added to the FTSE China A50 index, while China Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical will be removed [5]. - The newly added stocks belong to the innovative drug and CPO sectors, while the removed stocks are from traditional industries such as utilities and telecommunications [5]. - The newly included stocks have shown significant price increases this year, with NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 200%, and BeiGene and WuXi AppTec around 90% [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The estimated size of passive funds tracking the FTSE China A50 index exceeds $10 billion, indicating that changes in constituent stocks can lead to substantial capital flows, potentially in the hundreds of millions to billions [5]. - Investors have raised concerns about the inclusion of stocks perceived as overvalued and whether this adjustment is a strategy for foreign capital to take over high-priced stocks [6]. - The adjustment is based on market capitalization and liquidity criteria, with the review conducted quarterly, using data from the third Friday of February, May, August, and November [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector's allocation value, suggesting continued investment interest in the sector [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of listed banks in the first half of 2025 shows a marginal improvement in revenue and profit margins, with year-on-year growth of 1.0% in revenue and 0.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5]. - The recovery in the bond market during the second quarter has alleviated some of the pressures on bond investment returns, contributing to the overall performance improvement [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector's revenue and net profit growth will remain around 1% year-on-year for 2025, despite ongoing pressures on the banking fundamentals [4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, listed banks experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.0% and a net profit growth of 0.8%, with quarter-on-quarter improvements of 2.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively [4][5]. - The growth in interest-earning assets was 9.7% year-on-year, with a stable credit growth of 8% and a significant increase in financial investments by 14.9% [4][11]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.33%, showing a year-on-year decline of 13 basis points, which is less than the decline seen in the same period last year [4][5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in other non-interest income and a 3.1% increase in fee income [4][5][10]. - The report highlights that the recovery in the capital market has contributed to the improvement in non-interest income [4][10]. Asset Quality - The report notes that while the non-performing loan ratio remains stable, there is an increase in the generation rate of overdue and non-performing loans, particularly in retail banking [4][10]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable, with an increase in provisioning efforts during the first half of 2025 [4][10]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, but signs of a potential turning point are emerging, with improved net interest margins and non-interest income [4][10]. - The report suggests that the demand for bank stocks will increase from long-term funds, driven by favorable policies encouraging investment in the banking sector [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The high-net-worth client segment is a key focus for retail banking, with significant potential for value extraction. The private banking business is seen as a cornerstone for wealth management transformation, showcasing structural differentiation among banks [2][8]. Group 1: Private Banking Growth and Client Statistics - As of June 2025, 15 banks reported private banking data, with a total client base exceeding 1.63 million, an increase of nearly 150,000 clients, representing a growth rate of over 10% [2]. - The four major state-owned banks have crossed the 3 trillion yuan mark in Assets Under Management (AUM), with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 3.5 trillion yuan, followed by China Bank at 3.4 trillion yuan, and Construction Bank at 3.18 trillion yuan, which saw a 14.39% growth [4][5]. - Postal Savings Bank reported a client growth of over 21%, adding 7,200 clients to reach 41,400, marking the highest growth rate among state-owned banks [4]. Group 2: Performance of Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks displayed a mixed performance, with China Merchants Bank leading in client numbers at 182,700, an increase of 13,600 clients, representing an 8% growth [5]. - Ping An Bank was the only bank to report a decline in AUM, with a slight decrease of 0.5% to 1.97 trillion yuan, although it added 3,100 clients [5][9]. - CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank maintained steady growth, with AUMs of 1.28 trillion yuan and 1.05 trillion yuan, respectively, showing growth rates of 9.33% and 9.59% [6]. Group 3: Regional Banks and Competitive Landscape - Regional banks like Ningbo Bank and Beijing Bank exhibited strong growth, with AUM growth rates of 17.62% and 17.06%, respectively [7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of top-tier banks and differentiated competition, with smaller banks focusing on niche markets or specific industries [7][10]. Group 4: Changing Client Demographics and Service Models - The profile of private banking clients is shifting, with a growing emphasis on new wealth groups such as scientists and entrepreneurs, diverging from the traditional client base of business owners [9][10]. - Banks are redefining their private banking client categories based on their strengths, with a focus on family wealth transfer, pension finance, and enhanced offline services [10][11]. Group 5: Strategic Importance of Private Banking - Private banking is becoming a critical component of retail banking transformation, providing stability in asset scale and high value-added services, essential for optimizing client structures and stabilizing short-term performance [10][11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of listed commercial banks remained stable in a complex external environment during the first half of 2025, with total operating income of 777.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2%, and net profit of 278.125 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [1][2] Financial Performance - Among the 10 listed banks, only Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bohai Bank achieved both revenue and profit growth, indicating a polarized performance trend [2] - The highest operating income was recorded by China Merchants Bank at 169.969 billion yuan, with a net profit of 74.93 billion yuan, followed by Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank with net profits of 43.141 billion yuan and 36.478 billion yuan respectively [2] - Seven banks experienced a decline in operating income, while three banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, achieved positive growth rates of 2.62%, 7.83%, and 8.14% respectively [2] Interest Income and Fee-Based Income - In the context of declining market interest rates and intensified competition, seven banks reported a year-on-year decrease in net interest income, with only China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Minsheng Bank showing growth [3] - The net interest margin for listed banks ranged from 1.32% to 1.88%, with Minsheng Bank being the only bank to see an increase in net interest margin, reaching 1.39% [3] - Four banks, including Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank, reported growth in fee and commission income, while Bohai Bank and Zhejiang Commercial Bank saw significant declines [3] Investment Income - Despite challenges in traditional business revenue growth, investment income showed a positive trend, with eight banks reporting increases, particularly Everbright Bank with a 33.41% year-on-year growth [4] Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of the 10 listed banks reached 73.38 trillion yuan, with most banks achieving steady asset expansion [5] - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for the listed banks was approximately 1.3%, with four banks showing a decrease compared to the end of 2024 [6] - The NPL ratios for major banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank improved slightly, while others like Minsheng Bank and Bohai Bank saw slight increases [6] Provision Coverage - Only China Merchants Bank had a provision coverage ratio exceeding 400%, at 410.93%, while several other banks maintained coverage ratios above 200% [7] - Plans for mid-year dividends have been announced by several banks, including China Merchants Bank and Minsheng Bank, with specific cash dividend amounts and payout ratios detailed [7]

Core Insights - The private banking sector is identified as a key area for value extraction within retail banking, reflecting the strength of banks' wealth management capabilities [1] - As of mid-2023, most banks reported growth in both the number of private banking clients and assets under management (AUM), indicating a continuous expansion of the high-net-worth wealth management market [1][2] Client Growth - Among the 13 listed banks that disclosed private banking client data, Agricultural Bank, China Bank, and Construction Bank lead with over 200,000 clients each, with respective figures of 279,000, 265,500, and 216,900 [2] - Construction Bank saw a 14.69% increase in private banking clients compared to the end of 2022, while China Bank surpassed the 200,000 client mark [2] - Among national joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank leads with 182,700 clients, followed by Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, both exceeding 90,000 clients [2] AUM Performance - Of the 13 banks analyzed, 11 disclosed AUM data, with Agricultural Bank, China Bank, and Construction Bank each exceeding 3 trillion yuan in AUM, at 3.5 trillion, 3.4 trillion, and 3.18 trillion yuan respectively [3] - Traffic Bank's AUM reached 1.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.20% growth since the end of 2022 [3] - Among national joint-stock banks, Ping An Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank are part of the "trillion yuan club," with AUM figures of 1.97 trillion, 1.28 trillion, and 1.05 trillion yuan respectively [3] Service Optimization - Private banking has become a significant profit growth point for banks, especially as traditional retail banking growth slows [4] - The sector is evolving from a single financial advisory model to a comprehensive service ecosystem, incorporating diverse products such as family trusts and cross-border asset allocation [4] - Major banks are enhancing their private banking services through product optimization and resource integration, aiming to build a robust service ecosystem [4] Future Directions - The future of private banking is expected to focus on three main areas: deepening digitalization, creating service ecosystems, and expanding global investment options [6] - Digital transformation will leverage technologies like AI and blockchain to enhance client service processes and risk management [6] - The integration of external resources such as legal and tax services will be crucial in developing a comprehensive service framework, particularly for family office and legacy planning services [6]