此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for several listed companies from January 26 to February 1, with notable mentions including Baili Tianheng, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and Great Wall Motors, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market for these stocks [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Baili Tianheng (688506) has a target price increase of 375.97%, with a highest target price set at 1322.00 yuan [2]. - Zexing Pharmaceutical (688266) shows a target price increase of 88.56%, with a highest target price of 166.16 yuan [2]. - Great Wall Motors (601633) has a target price increase of 83.66%, with a highest target price of 38.00 yuan [2]. - Other companies with notable target price increases include Industrial Fulian (601138) at 73.31% and CATL (300750) at 71.71% [2][3]. Broker Recommendations - A total of 265 listed companies received broker recommendations during the period, with Qingdao Bank receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8 [3][4]. - Other companies with multiple recommendations include Xian Dao Intelligent and Wancheng Group, each receiving 5 recommendations [3][4]. Rating Adjustments - Eight companies had their ratings upgraded, including Shanghai Jahwa (600315) from "Hold" to "Buy" and ZTE Corporation (000063) from "Cautious Buy" to "Buy" [5][6]. - Two companies had their ratings downgraded, including Jincheng Shares (603396) from "Buy" to "Hold" and Huasheng Group (603018) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6]. First-Time Coverage - During the same period, 75 instances of first-time coverage were reported, with notable ratings including Shaanxi Tourism (603402) receiving a "Outperform Industry" rating and Bichu Electronics (688188) receiving a "Buy" rating [7].

Key Points - China Southern Airlines (600029) reported a closing price of 7.21 yuan on January 30, 2026, with a slight increase of 0.14% and a trading volume of 610,800 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 441 million yuan [1] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, marking a turnaround from a net loss of 1.696 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - The company plans to optimize capacity deployment, cargo operations, and cost control to improve operational efficiency amid challenges in the civil aviation industry [1] - On January 29, 2026, the company held its 12th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors, approving the appointment of Xinyong Zhonghe Accounting Firm as the domestic auditor for the 2026 financial year, with an audit fee of 10.98 million yuan, a decrease of 2.02 million yuan from the previous year [2] - The company also announced the resignation of Deputy General Manager Qu Guangji effective January 29, 2026, due to work changes, with the board expressing gratitude for his contributions during his tenure [3]

Group 1: Company Announcements - The controlling shareholder of Jihua Group is planning a change in control, and the stock will be suspended from trading starting February 2, 2026 [1][2] - Fusheng Holdings' actual controller, chairman, and general manager have been detained, but the company states that operations remain normal [3] - Gree Electric has increased its share repurchase amount to between 1 billion and 1.5 billion yuan [14] Group 2: Performance Forecasts - Guizhou Airlines expects a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - Aobi Zhongguang forecasts a net profit of approximately 123 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant increase from the previous year [6] - Sinopharm Group anticipates a net profit increase of 2767% to 3233% for 2025 [8] - Bojie Co. expects a net profit of 130 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 484.16% to 618.97% [9] - Taiji Group forecasts a net profit of approximately 110 million yuan for 2025, an increase of about 313% [10] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [11] Group 3: Significant Contracts and Investments - Jerry Holdings' subsidiary signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets worth approximately 1.265 billion yuan [15] - Wanhu Chemical plans to invest 19.086 billion yuan in its subsidiary Wanhu Olefin Company to enhance operational control [17] - Funi Holdings intends to use up to 1.85 billion yuan of idle funds for cash management [17]

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou Airport has upgraded its "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service, expanding it from the existing China Southern Airlines "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" express route to include the "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" express route, providing more efficient travel options for passengers between Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces [1]. Group 1 - The "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service has already facilitated over 100,000 passengers since its launch on the "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route, helping more than 1,000 late-arriving passengers board their flights [9]. - The service allows passengers without checked luggage to arrive at the boarding gate up to 15 minutes before flight departure, alleviating the anxiety of last-minute travel [9]. - Passengers who miss their flights can directly reschedule and check in through the China Southern Airlines official app at the boarding gate, eliminating the need to return to service counters [9]. Group 2 - The "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route serves as a crucial air passage connecting Zhejiang to the Greater Bay Area, with a concentration of business and travel passenger flow [9]. - The upgraded service includes dedicated check-in counters, clear directional signage, expedited security checks, and priority shuttle services, significantly reducing travel time and enhancing passenger experience [9]. - Future plans for Hangzhou Airport include deepening cooperation with airlines and continuously innovating service products to meet diverse travel needs and improve convenience and satisfaction [9].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The logistics sector is experiencing significant growth, with Jiushi Intelligent achieving a hundredfold increase from 200 to 20,000 autonomous delivery vehicles over three years, in collaboration with Cainiao [3][15] - Global air freight demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines projected to return to profitability [3][16] - The low-altitude economy is advancing from concept to reality, with eVTOL vertical take-off and landing points being established at landmarks like Guangzhou Tower and Baiyun Mountain [3][25] - The Chinese ship leasing market is developing multidimensionally, with steady growth in scale and efficiency, despite a slowdown in asset growth rate [3][26] - The Ministry of Transport held its first routine press conference for 2026, forecasting a total of 9.5 billion cross-regional passenger flows during the Spring Festival [3][28] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a decline in air freight prices [4][30] - The domestic express delivery volume increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, while express delivery revenue rose by 0.70% [4][33] - The shipping and port sector shows mixed trends, with the domestic container shipping price index declining while dry bulk freight rates are rising [4][38] Investment Recommendations - Opportunities in the express logistics sector for international market expansion are recommended, with a focus on companies like SF Holding and Jitu Express [4] - The aviation sector is highlighted for investment opportunities driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4] - The low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors are identified as trend-driven investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Heli and suggesting attention to Cao Cao Travel [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].

Core Insights - China Southern Airlines' Hunan branch plans to operate approximately 6,000 flights during the Spring Festival travel season, with an average of 26,000 round-trip seats available daily to meet passenger demand for returning home, tourism, and business travel [1] - The airline has enhanced its domestic and international route network, including new flights and increased frequencies on popular routes [1][2] Domestic Route Enhancements - New daily flight from Changsha to Tengchong starting February 3, with additional flights to popular destinations such as Sanya, Harbin, and increased frequencies to Xi'an, Changchun, and Urumqi [1] - A total of over 240 flights to Sanya and Haikou, and 460 flights to Harbin and Shenyang during the Spring Festival [1] International Route Developments - New weekly flights from Changsha to Singapore and Ho Chi Minh City, alongside existing routes to Nairobi and Seoul [1] C919 Aircraft Deployment - Three C919 aircraft will be deployed during the Spring Festival, servicing key routes including Changsha to Beijing Daxing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai Pudong [2] - Specific flight schedules include four daily round trips to Beijing Daxing and two to Guangzhou [2] Service Upgrades - China Southern Airlines has introduced several service enhancements, including support for unaccompanied minors and elderly passengers, as well as a new "one-minute boarding" service for passengers without checked luggage [2] - Increased check-in counters and mobile check-in options have been implemented to improve passenger experience [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [3]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are driving up oil shipping rates, while the dry bulk shipping market shows signs of improvement. The report suggests focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks for 2026, including companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][11][16]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a decline in air freight prices, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2][29]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the infrastructure sector, recommending investments in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [18]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [27][28]. - The express delivery industry is projected to see a slowdown in growth rates, with a forecasted return to mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is facing a mixed outlook, with container shipping rates under pressure due to seasonal declines in shipping volumes. The SCFI index for the East America route dropped by 10% this week [11][35]. - Oil tanker rates are influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, with VLCC rates showing a year-on-year increase of 29% [13][16]. - The dry bulk index (BDI) has risen by 21.9% this week, indicating a recovery in the dry bulk market driven by improved demand for iron ore and grain shipments [16][51]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows a decrease in truck traffic by 3.3% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 38.4%. Rail freight volumes also showed a slight year-on-year growth of 1.2% despite a week-on-week decline [17][18]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality infrastructure stocks, particularly in the port sector, which is seen as a stable investment opportunity [18]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery market saw a total volume of 1.99 billion packages in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%. However, growth is expected to slow in 2026 [19][20]. - The competitive landscape is gradually improving, with major players like SF Express expected to benefit from operational adjustments and profit growth in 2026 [20]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently experiencing a temporary decline in passenger volumes due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in passenger numbers [27]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the aviation industry, with potential profitability improvements driven by better supply-demand conditions and lower fuel costs [28].