Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for mainland Chinese airlines [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a notable increase of 2.53% on January 20, with Southern Airlines leading the gains, while the overall stock market indices showed slight declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - Southern Airlines saw a closing price of 8.13, with a rise of 4.90%, and a trading volume of 936,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 750 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines closed at 6.36, up 3.75%, with a trading volume of 1,763,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.111 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation Holdings closed at 9.10, increasing by 3.29%, with a trading volume of 991,800 shares and a transaction value of 895 million yuan [1]. - Shenzhen Airport's closing price was 7.16, up 2.43%, with a trading volume of 294,900 shares and a transaction value of 209 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai Airport closed at 32.37, rising by 2.05%, with a trading volume of 206,900 shares and a transaction value of 666 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 137 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.22 billion yuan [2]. - Southern Airlines had a net outflow of 57.22 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 38.10 million yuan [3]. - Shanghai Airport recorded a net inflow of 45.37 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 34.33 million yuan [3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is recommended for continued investment, with expectations of significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point, driven by historical high passenger load factors and increasing international travel demand [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The 2026 National Civil Aviation Work Conference emphasizes "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," setting growth targets of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers for total transport turnover, 810 million passengers, and 1,070 thousand tons for cargo, representing year-on-year increases of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [2] - Measures to control inefficient route supply and improve airline profitability are expected to alleviate "involution" competition within the industry [2] Group 2: Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain remains unrepaired, with Airbus and Boeing projected to deliver 793 and 600 aircraft respectively in 2025, still below pre-pandemic levels, and a backlog of over 15,000 aircraft orders [3] - The delivery cycle for new aircraft has extended to 6.8 years, leading airlines to prolong the service life of older aircraft, with a peak in retirements expected by 2030 [3] - China's airline fleet is projected to grow by only 4.0% to 4,271 aircraft by 2025, with a significant number of aircraft reaching retirement age [3] Group 3: Demand Side - Visa exemption policies are driving an increase in inbound travelers, with foreign visitors to China surpassing pre-pandemic levels in key cities [4] - The international routes are expected to be the main growth engine for demand in 2026, with a forecasted 5.3% year-on-year increase in daily passenger volume during the Spring Festival [4] - The average ticket price for the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to be 20% higher than the previous year, indicating a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation industry, indicating it is entering a "golden era" with an investment rating of "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference emphasized "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with initial signs of reducing "involution" in the industry. The 2026 targets include a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, 810 million passenger transport, and 10.7 million tons of cargo, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The global aircraft supply chain remains unhealed, with an aging fleet exacerbating supply constraints. Airbus plans to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025, while Boeing aims for 600, both below pre-pandemic levels. The backlog exceeds 15,000 aircraft, and the delivery cycle has extended to 6.8 years, leading to prolonged service of older models [3]. - Demand is bolstered by visa exemption policies, driving an increase in inbound travelers. The proportion of foreign visitors entering China under visa exemptions has stabilized above 70%. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume, with ticket prices projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing, high passenger load factors, and the growth of inbound and outbound travel. Key companies recommended include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain is still recovering, with significant delivery delays and an aging fleet leading to supply constraints. The total number of passenger aircraft in China is projected to grow by only 4% in 2025, with a peak in retirements expected by 2030 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies is expected to significantly increase the number of inbound travelers, with international routes becoming the main driver of demand growth in 2026. The Spring Festival is anticipated to show a notable increase in both volume and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong investment in the aviation sector, citing the current supply constraints and the potential for significant improvements in airline profitability. Specific airlines and global aircraft leasing companies are highlighted as key investment opportunities [3][4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the prevalent practice of airlines locking certain economy class seats, which limits consumer choice and is seen as a method for airlines to increase revenue through service tier differentiation [1][2] Group 1: Airline Practices - A survey conducted by the Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee revealed that none of the 10 major airlines fully open all economy class seats for selection, indicating that seat locking has become a common practice in civil aviation services [1] - The airlines surveyed include Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Shandong Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [1] Group 2: Seat Locking Statistics - The proportion of locked seats during the purchasing phase varies significantly among the surveyed airlines, ranging from 19.9% to 62.1%, with an average of 38.7% [1] - Specific routes with high seat locking include Spring Airlines' "Nanjing-Lanzhou" route, which has over 60% of economy seats locked, and Shenzhen Airlines' "Shenzhen-Zhanjiang" route, with over 50% locked [1] Group 3: Consumer Concerns - Consumers have raised questions regarding the reasons for seat locking, the extent of locked seats, unlocking methods, and related rules, but airline customer service responses have been vague regarding these issues [2]

Group 1 - Major airlines in China continue to rise, with Eastern Airlines (00670) up by 4.74% to HKD 5.97 [1] - Southern Airlines (01055) increased by 3.72% to HKD 6.13 [1] - Air China (00753) saw a rise of 2.65% to HKD 7.36 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in civil aviation, with a projected increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel season [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration forecasts that the passenger volume for the Spring Festival will reach 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - Daily flights are expected to average 19,400, which is a 5% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust demand for air travel [1] Group 2 - The transportation ETF (159666) is the only fund tracking the CSI All-Transportation Index, covering logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the transportation sector [2] - The ETF and its linked funds (019405/019404) provide a comprehensive view of the A-share transportation industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China are experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increasing travel demand as universities close for holidays and commercial travel resumes, alongside a significant increase in ticket sales for the upcoming Spring Festival travel season [1] Group 1: Airline Stock Performance - China Southern Airlines (600029) shares rose by 3.21% to HKD 6.1 - China Eastern Airlines (00670) shares increased by 2.63% to HKD 5.85 - Air China (601111) shares climbed by 2.23% to HKD 7.33 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecast - Guotai Junan Securities notes that with the holiday season approaching and commercial travel recovering, there is a noticeable rebound in air travel volume and pricing [1] - The firm anticipates strong demand for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a significant increase in ticket sales [1] - The Chinese aviation supply has entered a low growth phase, and with market-driven ticket pricing, steady demand and improved revenue management by airlines are expected to drive sustainable profitability [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Zhongtai Securities highlights that favorable oil and exchange rates are likely to continue, coupled with the "anti-involution" initiative and the Spring Festival holiday, creating strong expectations for improved air travel volume and pricing [1] - The cyclical effect of civil aviation volume and pricing is gradually becoming evident, with high passenger load factors and industry initiatives expected to drive industry prosperity beyond expectations [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on investment opportunities in the aviation sector [1]

Group 1 - The core view of the report is a positive outlook for Asia-Pacific airlines by 2026, driven by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] - The report raises the average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines from 2025 to 2027 by 22%, reflecting improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlooks, with the largest upward adjustment for mainland Chinese airlines [1] Group 2 - The target price for China Eastern Airlines is raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining a "Underperform" rating [1] - The target price for China Southern Airlines is increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from "Underperform" to "Neutral" [1] - The target price for Air China is raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from "Underperform" to "Buy" [1]