Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Dubai Airshow, themed "The Future is Here," opened on November 17, showcasing significant advancements in the aviation industry, including the debut of China's C919 aircraft in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The Dubai Airshow will last for five days, from November 17 to 21, and is described as the largest and most comprehensive in its history [1] - Over 1,500 exhibitors are participating, with an expected attendance of 148,000 industry professionals [1] - More than 200 aircraft of various types will be displayed, including commercial, military, business, and unmanned aerial vehicles, featuring both static displays and flight demonstrations [1] Group 2: Chinese Participation - Nearly 100 aviation-related companies from mainland China are exhibiting at the event [1] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is showcasing one C919 and one C909 aircraft, while China Southern Airlines is also presenting a C919 [1] - The C919 aircraft is making its first appearance in the Middle East, with flight demonstrations conducted by China Commercial Aircraft Corporation [1] - Additionally, Chinese-developed drones and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles are also featured at the airshow [1]

Group 1 - Japan has been a significant destination for Chinese tourists, but recent warnings from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs advise against traveling to Japan due to safety concerns and rising incidents of crime against Chinese citizens [2] - Following the advisory, multiple Chinese airlines have announced free ticket change and refund policies for flights to Japan, indicating a response to the deteriorating travel conditions [3][4] - Major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines have implemented similar policies, allowing passengers to change or cancel their flights without fees [4] Group 2 - The number of flights between mainland China and Japan has been declining for four consecutive weeks, with flight numbers dropping from 1,223 to 1,189 during this period, representing a significant decrease compared to 2019 [5] - The inbound tourism market from mainland China to Japan may be adversely affected, as data shows a substantial increase in Chinese tourists visiting Japan in previous months, but the current trend suggests a potential downturn [5]

Core Insights - The overall passenger turnover volume of listed airlines has shown significant growth, indicating a potential improvement in industry conditions for the fourth quarter [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Airline Performance Data - Air China reported a 4.3% increase in passenger capacity and an 8.7% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with an average load factor of 85.3%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - China Eastern Airlines announced a 6.84% increase in passenger capacity and a 10.58% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, achieving a load factor of 87.52%, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2] - China Southern Airlines reported a 7.53% increase in passenger capacity and an 8.83% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with a load factor of 87.89%, up 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Hainan Airlines indicated a 6.81% increase in passenger capacity and a 7.33% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with cargo revenue ton-kilometers increasing by 25.37% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Outlook - The airline industry is experiencing high load factors and a recovery in ticket prices, with expectations for improved travel demand in the fourth quarter [4] - The implementation of measures to reduce aggressive pricing strategies is anticipated to support ticket price recovery, further enhancing airline revenue per seat [4] - A decline in oil prices is expected to lower operational costs for airlines, potentially leading to increased profitability [4]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.89% on November 17, with Spring Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a closing price of 18.14, with an increase of 3.66% and a trading volume of 207,300 shares, totaling a transaction value of 371 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.35, up 2.10%, with a trading volume of 1,842,700 shares, amounting to 966 million yuan [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.27, up 0.69%, with a trading volume of 776,900 shares [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) led the decline with a closing price of 56.20, down 5.04%, and a trading volume of 139,000 shares, totaling 787 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 178 million yuan from institutional investors and 131 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 309 million yuan [2] - Southern Airlines had a net inflow of 38.50 million yuan from institutional investors, while Spring Airlines experienced a net outflow of 78.21 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xiamen Airport had a net inflow of 17.88 million yuan from institutional investors, while China Eastern Airlines had a net inflow of 24.59 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a continuous digestion of existing supply, with aircraft utilization rates exceeding 2019 levels during peak season, indicating a potential slowdown in supply growth in the future. The significant increase in international routes and limited domestic capacity growth suggest an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely to improve ticket prices. Favorable oil prices and exchange rates are expected to lead to a "not-so-slow" trend in Q4, with a significant reduction in losses anticipated for the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and a release of profit elasticity in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Flight and Passenger Volume - Flight and passenger volume growth: In Q3 2025, overall, domestic, international, and regional flight volumes increased by 3%/2%/12%/7% year-on-year, while overall, domestic, international, and regional passenger volumes grew by 3.90%/2.84%/15.31%/-2.37% year-on-year [1]. - Airlines' capacity deployment: Except for Juneyao Airlines, overall capacity investment increased, focusing on international routes. In Q3 2025, ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines showed year-on-year growth of 1.9%/5.7%/6.0%/4.4%/14.1%/-1.4% [2]. - Passenger turnover growth outpaced available seat kilometers growth, with load factors remaining high. In Q3 2025, passenger turnover for major airlines increased by 3.6%/6.2%/8.9%/4.2%/14.0%/-0.4% year-on-year, with industry load factors for July to September averaging 84.5%/87.5%/86.3%, up 0.5/0.6/2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue growth driven by capacity increase and passenger volume: In Q3 2025, total operating revenue for major airlines grew by 0.9%/3.0%/3.1%/1.8%/6.0%/-1.9% year-on-year [3]. - Decrease in oil prices alleviated fuel costs, while capacity investment diluted fixed costs, although variable costs increased. In Q3 2025, operating costs for major airlines increased by 0.07%/1.63%/1.51%/-1.43%/8.74%/-0.46% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue per available seat kilometer decreased, but the decline in costs was generally greater than the decline in revenue. In Q3 2025, revenue per available seat kilometer for major airlines decreased by 1.03%/2.55%/2.72%/2.41%/7.09%/0.47%/5.28%, while costs decreased by 1.84%/3.86%/4.26%/5.54%/4.70%/8.21% [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Market Outlook - Favorable oil prices and exchange rates positively impacted net profits. In Q3 2025, the average price of aviation kerosene was 5593 RMB/ton, down 11.05% year-on-year, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.74%, affecting net profits of major airlines [4]. - Slightly better-than-expected net profits for China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines. In Q3 2025, net profits for major airlines were 36.76/38.40/35.34/27.88/11.67/5.84/3.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.31%/+20.26%/34.37%/-0.75%/-6.17%/-25.29%/+31.60% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment themes include performance elasticity from ticket price increases, recommending major airlines with larger fleets and strong cyclical attributes, as well as Hainan Airlines benefiting from policy advantages and Juneyao Airlines with optimal route networks among private carriers [5]. - Emphasis on the certainty of operational performance, recommending airlines with stable subsidies like China Express Airlines and those with clear cost advantages and neutral exchange rate exposure like Spring Airlines [5].

Core Points - China Southern Airlines (CSA) showcased its C919 aircraft for the first time at the Dubai Airshow 2025, marking its debut in the Middle East [1] - The new cabin interior design of the C919 emphasizes a blend of traditional Chinese aesthetics and modern simplicity, aimed at enhancing passenger comfort [2] - Since receiving its first C919 on August 28, 2024, CSA has operated the aircraft for over a year, with a current fleet of 7 units and over 10,000 flight hours [2] Group 1 - The C919 aircraft features a new generation cabin interior themed "National Style Elegance, Traveling in Light," combining bright and soft color tones with eco-friendly materials [2] - Business class seats are designed with light gray leather headrests and brown-gray leather bodies, showcasing exquisite stitching and a soft leather texture [2] - The economy class seats utilize sky blue wool fabric and light beige side decorations, creating a fresh and relaxing atmosphere for long flights [2] Group 2 - CSA aims to enhance its brand and operational efficiency while accumulating operational experience to promote large-scale commercial operations of Chinese civil aircraft [3]

Core Insights - China Southern Airlines has launched the "Little Pearl in Hand" aviation research and study program, providing a unique immersive experience for children to explore aviation [1][2] - The program includes hands-on activities led by current pilots and flight attendants, transforming complex aviation concepts into engaging learning experiences [2] Group 1: Program Overview - The program offers a deep aviation career experience chain, allowing children to learn about flight mechanics and aircraft operation in an interactive classroom setting [2] - Participants engage in safety training within a flight simulator, learning about cabin safety protocols and experiencing the use of oxygen masks and life vests [2] - Children simulate in-flight service processes, gaining insights into the intricacies of cabin service [2] Group 2: Educational Impact - The program includes a visit to the real-time operations control room, where children can observe live flight dynamics and understand factors affecting flight such as weather and traffic control [2] - Activities like assembling airplane models foster teamwork and engineering thinking among participants [2] - Each child receives an official research and study certificate upon completion, enhancing their educational experience [2] Group 3: Future Aspirations - The company aims to establish "Little Pearl in Hand" as a prominent aviation science brand in Shaanxi province, emphasizing the importance of practical education [2] - The program is open for group reservations, inviting more schools and families to participate in this unique aviation enlightenment journey [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Views - The transportation sector has shown a cumulative increase of 1.83% from November 10 to November 15, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.08% [14][15]. - The recovery rates for domestic and international passenger traffic in major airlines and airports have significantly improved compared to 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in the aviation sector [24][32]. - The shipping and logistics sectors are experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping indices showing a decline year-on-year, while oil and product tanker indices have increased significantly [36][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The transportation industry ranked 13th among 31 sectors with a cumulative increase of 1.83% during the week [14]. - Sub-sectors such as ports (+7.44%) and airports (+5.28%) performed particularly well, while cross-border logistics (-1.37%) and road freight (-0.68%) faced declines [15][23]. Aviation and Airports - Major airlines in China have seen recovery rates for domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) in September 2025 reach as high as 176.49% compared to the same month in 2019 [24]. - Key airports like Baiyun, Shanghai, and Capital have also shown strong recovery in passenger throughput, with rates of 125.22% and 115.87% for international traffic [32]. Shipping and Ports - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 35.55% year-on-year, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has shown a 23.97% decline [36]. - The CCFI for the East America route reported a decrease of 18.31% year-on-year, while the Mediterranean route saw a decline of 28.56% [36]. Road and Rail - Rail passenger turnover increased by 0.4% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 4.24% [61]. - Road passenger traffic decreased by 3.82%, but freight volume increased by 5.20% [67]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a 7.20% increase year-on-year [10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards smaller packages driven by e-commerce, with a notable increase in business volume [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and logistics companies like Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) for potential investment opportunities [9][10].

Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index opened with a significant drop, falling over 1% and breaching the 50,000 points mark before narrowing its losses by around 9:50 AM [1] - Several consumer stocks in Japan experienced substantial declines, with FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES down over 14%, Japanese electronics down over 11%, and Shiseido down over 9% [3] Economic Data - Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The actual GDP for the third quarter decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [3] Diplomatic Tensions - High-ranking Japanese officials made provocative statements regarding Taiwan, suggesting potential military involvement, which has drawn significant criticism from China and the international community [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued travel warnings for its citizens in Japan, citing a rise in crimes against Chinese nationals and a deteriorating security environment [5] Airline Industry Impact - Following the travel warnings, major Chinese airlines announced flexible ticket policies for flights to Japan, allowing free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before November 15 [7][8] - Chinese airlines account for approximately 80% of the flight volume on the China-Japan route, with a significant reduction in weekly flights observed [9] Tourism Statistics - In September 2025, foreign visitors to Japan reached 3.267 million, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with Chinese tourists being the largest group [9] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan increased by 42.7%, making China the largest source of inbound tourism for Japan [9] Trade Relations - China remains Japan's largest trading partner, with a total trade volume of $308.3 billion expected in 2024, including $156.25 billion in imports from China [10] - The deterioration of Japan-China relations is anticipated to have negative repercussions for the Japanese populace, as highlighted by Japanese officials [10]

Core Viewpoint - The airline stocks have collectively opened lower due to a significant decline in flight volumes to Japan following travel advisories from the Chinese government [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 3.47%, trading at HKD 4.45 [1] - Air China (601111) (00753) fell by 2.92%, trading at HKD 6.31 [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) decreased by 2.62%, trading at HKD 5.20 [1] Group 2: Travel Advisory Impact - On November 14, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese consulate in Japan advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan [1] - Following this advisory, several airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, announced free ticket refunds and changes for flights to Japan scheduled before December 31 [1] Group 3: Flight Volume Decline - According to data from Flight Manager, the weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has significantly decreased, with 1,189 flights recorded in the 45th week (November 3-9), representing an 82.9% recovery rate compared to the same period in 2019 [1] - This figure reflects a 14.5% decrease compared to the 40th week [1] - A market department representative from an airline indicated that further reductions in flights to Japan are likely, with capacity being adjusted to other routes [1]