Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to gradually recover by 2025, leading to significant improvements in the IPO business for securities firms, although a profound industry shift is underway with a reshuffling among leading firms and a rational return to underwriting fee models [1][4]. Group 1: IPO Underwriting Performance - In 2025, the total IPO underwriting amount by 34 securities firms reached 1250.44 billion, nearly doubling compared to 2024's 673.53 billion, although it remains about one-third of 2023's total of 3556.37 billion [5][6]. - The top ten securities firms in IPO underwriting saw significant growth, with the lowest increase being 78.36%, while firms ranked seventh to tenth did not achieve the same growth [6][7]. - CITIC Securities led the underwriting amount in 2025 with 234.69 billion, followed by Guotai Haitong at 190.30 billion, indicating a substantial gap between the top two firms [11][12]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Dynamics - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities created a "giant" that surpassed CITIC Securities in the number of underwritings but still lags in underwriting amount and income [2][9]. - CICC's IPO underwriting amount surged nearly threefold to 138.05 billion, marking a significant return to the top five, reflecting a competitive landscape among leading firms [3][8]. - The high-profit era for investment banks is over, with a more rational fee structure and a balanced business layout emerging in the industry [4][15]. Group 3: Underwriting Fees and Revenue - The underwriting fees have significantly decreased, with a large project raising over 3 billion potentially yielding only 50 million in fees, contrasting sharply with previous standards [3][15]. - CITIC Securities reported an underwriting and sponsorship income of 11.36 billion, exceeding Guotai Haitong's 9.76 billion by 1.6 billion, highlighting the income disparity between the two firms [13][14]. - The trend of lower fees is attributed to various factors, including reduced project numbers, lower fundraising scales, and regulatory guidance aimed at lowering costs for companies [17].

【大河财立方消息】12月26日，中信证券研报认为，2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济 温和修复的特征，推荐商品>股票>债券。 汇率方面，人民币或进入温和升值周期，美元兑人民币汇率中枢有望逐步向6.8靠拢。 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 债券方面，预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率或维 持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。 商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性 宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击5000美元/盎司；铜则在供给约束与电力需求驱 动下具备强支撑，预计均价有望上涨至12000美元/吨。 权益方面，中信证券研报预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: Equity Market - The report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A index for 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery, leading to a "Davis Double" market scenario [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the midterm election year [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% for the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 3: Commodity Market - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an expected average price increase to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 4: Currency Market - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

中信证券研报称，中国人民 银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会对于国内经济提及"供强需弱矛盾 突出"，供给端调控或是后续政策发力点；政策目标层面新增跨周期调节表述，未来政策重心或落在长 期制度性改革；降成本表述提及"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，降成本状态大于操作；此外，例会 删去资金防空转与引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度表述，央行对数量目标淡化趋势延续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts a marginally loose liquidity environment and moderate economic recovery in 2026, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: A-shares - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is between 5% and 10% [2] - The net profit growth for listed companies in 2026 is projected at 4.8%, with price pressures on profits expected to ease gradually [2] - Structural opportunities may become the norm, with a "low volatility, slow bull" market anticipated, driven by absolute return funds [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks - A rebound in performance and a second round of valuation recovery are expected for Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic PE is currently at 11.3 times, indicating a valuation gap [3] - Estimated net profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech in 2026 is 6.7% and 24.3%, respectively [3] Group 3: US Stocks - The dual easing of fiscal and monetary policy in the midterm election year is expected to sustain growth momentum [4] - Projected net profit growth for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MAG 8 is 15.6%, 20.0%, and 24.5%, respectively [4] - The potential for a significant increase in stock buybacks due to lower interest rates and tax cuts is noted [5] Group 4: Bonds - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to range from 1.5% to 1.8% in 2026, with a downward trend initially [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate between 3.9% and 4.3% [7] Group 5: Commodities - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, transitioning from oversupply to balance [11] - Gold prices may reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [12] - Copper prices are projected to rise to $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and demand from the power sector [13] Group 6: Currency - The RMB is expected to enter a mild appreciation cycle, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the new energy sector is expected to see significant improvement in fundamentals by 2026, driven by domestic systematic upgrades and increased overseas demand, with a focus on energy storage, wind power, high-quality development in photovoltaics, and new growth opportunities in green fuels [1] Group 1: New Energy Development - New energy development is transitioning from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay of energy supply [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is crucial for achieving carbon peak by 2030 and building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, with structural optimization expected in various aspects [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by market-driven demand and improved commercial models [3] - The domestic energy storage industry is well-positioned with a complete supply chain, and Chinese manufacturers are likely to benefit from rising standards and profitability [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power is anticipated to grow steadily due to high returns and favorable grid integration, while international support for wind energy is expected to align growth trends [4] - The wind turbine sector is projected to recover prices and profit margins, with opportunities for global market expansion [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector may face pressure in domestic installations by 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, although emerging markets remain vibrant [5] - New technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials are expected to drive long-term growth in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 5: Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [7] - The domestic green fuel industry benefits from abundant renewable energy resources and a complete supply chain, facilitating the transition from demonstration to commercial operation [7]

【中信证券：流动性宽松预期下金价有望延续涨势 2026年或冲击5000美元/盎司】智通财经12月26日 电，中信证券研报指出，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球黄金ETF 流入将作为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金价，去美元 化、央行购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，我们预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到2025年 金价涨幅显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，我们预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年价 格或冲击5000美元/盎司。 ...

从运行节奏看，利率或呈现"两阶段"特征：年初至上半年，降准降息前置落地有望推动利率下行；年中 以后，随着通胀回升对名义增速形成支撑，以及地方化债逐步收尾、信用扩张条件改善，利率存在阶段 性上行压力。 一方面，中央经济工作会议延续适度宽松的货币政策定调，我们预计政策利率仍有10bps左右的调降空 间。结合央行在2025年三季度货政报告中提出保持合理的利率比价关系，判断2026年10年期国债收益率 中枢下移幅度与政策利率调整幅度大体一致。 另一方面，利率债仍将维持"低利率+高波动"格局，震荡幅度预计与2025年相当。2025年央行国债操作 变化、股债跷跷板效应及监管不确定性显著放大了利率波动，展望2026年，尽管政策基调延续宽松，但 降准降息的落地节奏仍存在分歧，扰动因素尚未完全消退，预计10年期国债收益率仍将保持约30bps的 波动区间。 中信证券指出，相较于2025年中国10年国债收益率1.6%-1.9%的运行区间，我们判断2026年收益率中枢 或下移10bps，同时维持30bps左右的震荡空间。 ...

中信证券指出，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球黄金ETF流入将作 为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金价，去美元化、央行 购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，我们预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到2025年金价涨幅 显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，我们预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年价格或冲击 5000美元/盎司。 ...

中信证券指出，11月中旬以来，超长债利率波动加大，长久期负债缺口、流动性季节性考核等因素压制 银行超长债的配置意愿。考虑到明年财政发力节奏预计较为均衡，商业银行资产端超长债实际收益率仍 相对丰厚，负债端在央行货币政策框架改革长期影响下压力减轻，长远看超长债仍具备一定配置性价 比。 ...