行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 基建投资景气上行，顺周期煤化工有望贯穿全年主线 核心观点 本周 CS 建筑上涨 1.54%，沪深 300 上涨 1.67%，建筑跑输大盘 0.12%。中小 市值转型的相关标的涨幅居前，传统基建央企仍表现偏弱。传统基建层面， 25 年 1-3 月专项债密集发行，基建投资延续发力，且水泥、沥青等建材高 频数据进一步验证景气上行。顺周期方面，Q1 较多煤化工项目进入前期密 集开工阶段，随着招投标工作的深入推进，建议继续关注相关企业的订单 及业绩弹性，重点推荐硫磺回收领域拿单优势凸显的三维化学。新兴业务 板块，建议继续关注与算力、IDC 等相关的投资机会，以及部分中小市值建 筑公司的转型机遇，主题层面建议继续关注西南水电及国际工程相关品种。 多维度验证 Q1 基建景气上行，煤化工项目进入密集开工阶段 1）从投资数据来看：25 年 1-3 月狭义基建、广义基建投资同比分别+5.8%、 +11.5%，3 月单月同比分别+5.9%、+12.6%（增速环比+0.3、+2.6pct），细 分项中，传统交通运输类投资强度增长仍较为有限，而水电燃热、水利投 资保持高增长态势，1- ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in municipal and water conservancy investments, which grew by 26.0% and 36.8% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2] - New signed orders for construction companies indicate a recovery in infrastructure sentiment, with notable increases in orders for major companies such as China Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report suggests focusing on the conversion rhythm of physical workload in infrastructure and investment opportunities in high-sentiment provinces like Sichuan [1] - The report highlights the potential for cyclical recovery driven by warming physical volumes in infrastructure and real estate, alongside expectations for policy support amid tariff impacts [1] - The report recommends monitoring the recovery of international engineering projects along the Belt and Road, particularly in Europe and ASEAN [1] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first three months of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a monthly increase of 12.6% in March [1] - New special bonds issued in Q1 amounted to 960.2 billion, an increase of 326.1 billion year-on-year, providing strong support for infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly decline of 1.6% in March [2] - New construction area saw a significant drop of 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area decreased by 14.3% [2] Cement and Glass Industry - Cement production in the first quarter was 331 million tons, a decline of 1.4% year-on-year, but March saw a recovery with a 2.5% increase [3] - The average cement price remained stable at 402 yuan per ton as of April 13, with expectations for price increases in early April [3] - Flat glass production fell by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, but market trading conditions are gradually improving [4] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Construction, and China Electric Power, all rated as "Buy" [15]

Summary of Sichuan Road and Bridge Group Conference Call Industry Overview - Sichuan is a key area for the Western Development strategy, with significant improvements in infrastructure investment intensity and strategic positioning. The urbanization rate is below the national average, indicating substantial growth potential in highway infrastructure, which presents development opportunities for Sichuan Road and Bridge [2][3][12]. Company Insights - Sichuan Road and Bridge adopts an integrated investment and construction model, achieving operational capabilities 2-3 percentage points higher than typical construction firms. The controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, has increased its stake to nearly 80%, reflecting strong confidence from industrial capital and providing robust support [2][4][5]. - The company transferred loss-making businesses to Shudao Group for 650 million yuan, resulting in a loss reduction of approximately 500 million yuan, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 60% by 2025, with an expected annual dividend yield of 7% [2][5][13]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Sichuan Road and Bridge signed new projects worth 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with infrastructure orders accounting for 88% of this total, up 28% year-on-year. This indicates a significant improvement in order recovery [2][6]. - The company’s stock has shown excess returns since the controlling shareholder's stake increase, with a cumulative rise of 265% over five years, while the Shanghai Construction Index fell by 35% during the same period. However, there has been a pullback since late 2023 due to revenue and performance declines [2][8]. Market Dynamics - The investment amount for key projects in Sichuan Province is substantial, providing a stable development outlook for Sichuan Road and Bridge. The company is currently in a favorable upward cycle due to personnel adjustments and continuous order improvements [2][12]. - The company’s overseas business, although small, is accelerating, with 2023 overseas revenue at 2.211 billion yuan, accounting for 2% of total revenue. Key markets are in Central Asia and Africa, with new projects expected to generate additional business [2][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue and performance in 2025, following a challenging 2024. The projected revenue growth is modest, with a PE ratio expected to decline from 9 times in 2024 to 8 times in 2025, and further to 7 times in 2026, aligning with industry benchmarks [2][9]. - Sichuan Road and Bridge's advantages include its strategic location in a high-demand infrastructure market, a high dividend strategy, and a return to stable management and operations, all of which support a positive outlook for future growth [2][10][11].

公告编号：2025-034证券代码：600039证券简称：四川路桥 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 关于董事长提议回购公司部分股份的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称本公司或公司）于2025年4月8日收到公司董事长孙立成先生 （以下简称提议人）《关于提议四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司回购公司部分股份的函》，具体内容如 下： 一、提议人的基本情况及提议时间 1、提议人：公司董事长孙立成先生 2、提议时间：2025年4月8日 二、提议回购股份的原因和目的 为维护公司全体股东利益，增强投资者信心，稳定及提升公司价值，基于对公司未来发展的信心，公司 董事长孙立成先生提议公司通过集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司股份，回购的股份将用于股权激励或用 于转换公司发行的可转债。 三、提议内容 1、回购股份的种类：公司发行的人民币普通股（A股）。 2、回购股份的用途：本次回购的股份用于股权激励或用于转换公司发行的可转债；若公司未能在本次 回购 ...

- The "CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index" was launched by the China Securities Index Company in 2024 to optimize traditional dividend stock selection logic through dynamic screening mechanisms and volatility control rules[2][32] - The index selects 50 stocks with continuous dividends and high expected dividend yields, using a "expected dividend yield" selection method combined with a dividend yield and volatility weighting mechanism to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][32][39] - The index's construction process includes selecting stocks with continuous dividends over the past three years, calculating the expected dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans, and weighting by the ratio of dividend yield to volatility[39][41] - The index has shown superior performance with higher annualized returns, lower volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns compared to other dividend indices, demonstrating its value in long-term asset allocation[2][33][37] Model Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, annualized return: 19.66%, annualized volatility: 24.60%, Sharpe ratio: 0.88, maximum drawdown: 64.82%[37] - Dividend Low Volatility 100 Total Return Index, annualized return: 17.87%, annualized volatility: 24.47%, Sharpe ratio: 0.81, maximum drawdown: 64.02%[15][37] - CSI Dividend Total Return Index, annualized return: 14.14%, annualized volatility: 25.86%, Sharpe ratio: 0.75, maximum drawdown: 72.13%[15][37] - CSI All Share Total Return Index, annualized return: 11.00%, annualized volatility: 26.29%, Sharpe ratio: 0.50, maximum drawdown: 71.48%[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - The "expected dividend yield" factor is constructed by calculating the dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans and adjusting for stock price at the end of April[39][41] - The factor is evaluated positively for its ability to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][39] - The index's weighting method, which uses the ratio of dividend yield to volatility, effectively controls annualized volatility and enhances risk-adjusted returns[39][41] Factor Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, dividend yield: consistently higher than other dividend indices during the period from September 30, 2024, to March 31, 2025[38] - The index's constituent stocks have a net asset return rate of approximately 10.5% and the lowest asset-liability ratio among compared dividend indices, indicating high profitability and low debt risk[54][56]

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-035 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东非公开发行可交换公司债券 办理股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）控股股东蜀道投资集团 有限责任公司（以下简称蜀道集团）因发行可交换公司债券业务需要，将其持 有的500,000,000股无限售流通股质押给本次债券的受托管理人。本次股份质押 前，蜀道集团及其一致行动人持有公司股份6,932,169,419股，占公司总股本的 79.59%；蜀道集团及其一致行动人持有公司股份累计质押数量405,803,310股， 占其持有公司股份总数的5.85%，占公司总股本的4.66%。本次股份质押完成后， 蜀道集团及其一致行动人持有公司股份累计质押数量（含本次）905,803,310股， 占其持有公司股份总数的13.07%，占公司总股本的10.40%。 公司于2025年4月8日收到控股股东蜀道集团《关于非公开发行可交换公司 债券办理股份质押的函》 ...

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-034 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 关于董事长提议回购公司部分股份的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称本公司或公司）于2025年4月8 日收到公司董事长孙立成先生（以下简称提议人）《关于提议四川路桥建设集 团股份有限公司回购公司部分股份的函》，具体内容如下： 一、提议人的基本情况及提议时间 1、提议人：公司董事长孙立成先生 2、提议时间：2025年4月8日 二、提议回购股份的原因和目的 1、回购股份的种类：公司发行的人民币普通股（A股）。 2、回购股份的用途：本次回购的股份用于股权激励或用于转换公司发行的 可转债；若公司未能在本次回购完成之后36个月内将回购股份用于上述用途， 则公司回购的股份将依法予以注销。 3、回购股份的方式：通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式进 行股份回购。 4、回购股份的价格：回购价格上限不高于公司董事会审议通过回购股份方 案决议前30个交易日公司股票交易均价的15 ...

Summary of Sichuan Road and Bridge Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sichuan Road and Bridge Group - **Industry**: Infrastructure and Construction Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance - The stock price of Sichuan Road and Bridge has experienced three main phases from January 2019 to the present: - **Phase 1 (2019-2023)**: Significant increase in stock price, rising five to six times due to doubled revenue and profit, along with multiple stock buybacks and acquisitions by the major shareholder, Shudao Group [3] - **Phase 2 (April 2023 - October 2024)**: Stock price adjustment due to natural disasters affecting projects, management turmoil, and a slowdown in infrastructure investment [3] - **Phase 3 (Post-October 2024)**: Recovery in operations and recognition from capital markets, entering a new development phase [3] Business Strategy and Growth - The company benefits from Shudao Group's infrastructure investments, increasing market share in the province, and a comprehensive investment-construction model that ensures funding and orders, effectively responding to market changes [4][5] - Focus on the Sichuan-Chongqing economic circle while diversifying into mining, new materials, wind power, and solar operations, aiming for steady growth [4][7] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 60% by 2025, enhancing investor confidence and positively impacting stock valuation [4][6] Infrastructure Investment in Sichuan - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicates substantial infrastructure investment in Sichuan, with total project investments reaching 2.15 trillion yuan, of which 60% is allocated to infrastructure, providing new growth opportunities for Sichuan Road and Bridge [4][9] Competitive Advantages - The integrated investment-construction model enhances competitiveness by ensuring liquidity and efficiency, avoiding common issues in traditional construction such as payment delays [10][11] - The model allows for direct profit confirmation through project orders, with dividends benefiting both the company and its major shareholder [11][12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant improvements in revenue and profit in 2025, with a strong order backlog and a projected stable growth rate [13][15] - The restructuring of business segments and asset divestiture has optimized resource allocation and improved profitability, focusing on core construction operations [14] Investment Value - Sichuan Road and Bridge is currently viewed as having high investment value due to its robust order book, projected stable growth, and attractive dividend yield of at least 60% [15] Additional Important Insights - The company’s strategic focus on core competencies and divestment of loss-making assets positions it well for future growth [8][14] - The anticipated stability and performance growth are supported by recent financial reports, making it a compelling investment opportunity [15]

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号： 2025-033 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）根据《上海证券交易所 上市公司行业信息披露指引第八号——建筑》的相关规定，现将 2025 年第一 季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： | 序号 | 分行 | 第一季度 中标项目 | 第一季度 中标项目 | 本年累计 中标项目 | 本年累计 中标项目 | 上年同期 累计中标 项目合计 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 业 | 数量 （个） | 金额 （万元人 民币） | 数量 （个） | 合计金额 （万元人 民币） | 金额 （万元人 民币） | 同比增减 | | 1 | 基建 | 35 | 3,045,564 | 35 | 3,045,564 | 2,380,250 | +27.95% | | 2 | 房建 | ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the logic of domestic demand recovery. The focus is on infrastructure and key strategic industries like coal chemical investments, which are expected to receive policy support [2][21] - The construction index rose by 0.13% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.57 percentage points, with significant gains in small and mid-cap transformation stocks [1][31] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in local government bond issuance, indicating potential for local investment release despite external demand pressures [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Domestic Demand - Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for major trade deficit countries, are expected to suppress overseas and manufacturing investments while boosting domestic demand [2][14] - The previous trade friction period saw a decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with real estate becoming a key contributor to economic stability [3][21] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week was driven by sectors such as professional engineering and building design, with notable stock gains from companies like Shanshui Bide and Zhongyan Dadi [1][31] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related stocks, particularly in high-growth regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [21][28] - Coal chemical projects are expected to see significant investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [28] - Companies with production layouts in North America or Mexico are likely to benefit, with recommendations including China Jushi and Puyang Refractories [28] Section 4: Fiscal Policy and Investment Opportunities - The first quarter of 2025 saw local government bond issuance reach approximately 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 80%, indicating a strong fiscal push for infrastructure investment [4][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural and regional characteristics in infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy and transportation sectors [38]