农用化工 分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 ——云天化(600096)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(维持) 市场数据(2025-03-26) | 收盘价(元) | 23.52 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 24.00/18.49 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,919.36 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.93 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 431.43 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 12.19 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 5.86 | | 毛利率(%) | 17.50 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 23.85 | | 资产负债率(%) | 52.26 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 183,432.87/183,432.8 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -11% -5% 1% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 2024.03 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.33 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year [6][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6][10]. - The company has a strong position in the phosphate resource and fertilizer industry, with significant production capacities and a focus on internal reforms and capacity expansion [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company’s sales volume for various products showed mixed results, with phosphate fertilizer sales down by 5.6% and compound fertilizer sales up by 16.9% [12]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased, and it has been actively optimizing its cost structure [12]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 5.31 billion, 5.39 billion, and 5.50 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 61.537 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 10.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.93% to 5.333 billion yuan [4]. - The recovery in the phosphate chemical industry has driven the company's performance growth, with the company being a leading player in the phosphate chemical sector in China [4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan for every 10 shares, amounting to a total of 2.552 billion yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 61.537 billion yuan, down 10.89% year-on-year, while the net profit was 5.333 billion yuan, up 17.93% [4]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the year was 2.91 yuan [4]. - The gross profit margin for the year was 17.50%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.82%, up 1.87 percentage points [4]. Product Performance - The company sold 4.6425 million tons of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, a decrease of 3.15% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 3,388 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.28% [4]. - The sales volumes and average prices for other products such as compound fertilizer, urea, and polyoxymethylene showed varied changes, with compound fertilizer sales increasing by 16.91% [4]. Industry Outlook - The phosphate chemical industry is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by high phosphate rock prices and the company's strong resource advantages [5][6]. - The company has a phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and reserves of nearly 800 million tons, making it the largest phosphate mining enterprise in China [6]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to 25.52 billion yuan over the next three years, with a commitment to distribute at least 45% of the cumulative distributable profits during this period [7].

Core Insights - BYD reported a net profit of 40.254 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 34% year-on-year increase, with R&D investment reaching 54.2 billion yuan [1][2] - Guangzhou Development plans to invest 5.612 billion yuan in the construction of the Guangzhou Pearl River Power Plant, a 2×600MW coal power environmental replacement project [1][2] - Cloud Tianhua's net profit for 2024 is 5.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.93%, with a proposed dividend of 1.4 yuan per share [1][2] Company Announcements - Ocean King currently has no business or products related to "deep-sea technology" [1] - Youfu Co., Ltd. reported that sales revenue from seawater polyester industrial yarn accounts for approximately 1% of the company's total revenue, indicating a low proportion [1] - Yida Co., Ltd. achieved production and sales of epoxy propylene products but did not achieve profitability [1] Project Investments - Chuangwei Digital plans to invest no more than 932 million yuan in the second phase of the Huizhou Industrial Park project [2] - Oriental Electric plans to establish a subsidiary and build a production base in Thailand [2] Contract Awards - Yonggui Electric's subsidiary won a project worth 23.218 million yuan [2] - Jinpu Garden signed a construction project general contracting contract worth approximately 215 million yuan [2] - Huaxi Energy signed a contract for a 1,800MW clean energy project in southern Laos, with a corresponding contract amount of 10.385 billion yuan [2] Share Buybacks and Transfers - Jian Sheng Group plans to repurchase shares with an investment of 50 to 100 million yuan [3] - Longshen Rongfa intends to purchase 70% equity of a research institute for 8.58494 million yuan [3] Other Developments - Rui Ge Mould plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 880 million yuan for investment in intelligent manufacturing projects for new energy vehicles [1][3] - Yiwei Lithium Energy's subsidiary received a supplier designation notification from Changan Automobile [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion RMB, primarily due to an improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.4 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 48.15%, which is an increase from 40.56% in 2023, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7][13]. - The company is focusing on its core chemical business, reducing the proportion of low-margin trading activities, which has positively impacted its gross margin [8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.50%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-over-year, supported by stable prices for phosphate products and a decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The revenue from the phosphate fertilizer segment was 15.73 billion RMB, with a slight decrease in sales volume but an increase in average selling price [8]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 5.57 billion RMB for 2025 and 5.94 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.60% and 6.56% respectively [11][13]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate and fertilizer industry, benefiting from its integrated operations and resource advantages [7]. - The report anticipates that fertilizer prices may rise during the spring planting season, which could further enhance the company's profitability [8]. - The company’s focus on optimizing its business structure and reducing debt levels is expected to improve its financial health and operational efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion RMB, benefiting from an improved gross margin [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.4 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 48.15%, which is an increase from 40.56% in 2023, highlighting a commitment to shareholder returns [7][13]. - The company is focusing on its core chemical business, reducing the proportion of low-margin trading activities, which has positively impacted its gross margin [8]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.50%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-over-year, supported by stable prices for phosphate products and a decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.91 RMB, with a forecasted net profit of 5.33 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17.93% [11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 8.09 for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation [11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that fertilizer prices will rise in Q1 2025 due to the spring planting season, which could further enhance the company's profitability [8]. - The average price of phosphate rock is expected to remain stable, supporting the pricing of phosphate chemical products [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the phosphate and fertilizer industry, leveraging its integrated operations and resource advantages [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable and improving operations, with a focus on active dividend distribution [1] - The company has demonstrated a continuous improvement in financial data, with a significant increase in net profit year-on-year [5][9] - The company maintains a strong position in the market due to its integrated operations and resource advantages [9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 61,537 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5,333 million yuan, an increase of 17.93% [5][8] - The gross profit margin improved to 17.5%, up by 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company plans to produce and sell 4.92 million tons of phosphate fertilizer, 2.67 million tons of urea, and 1.64 million tons of compound fertilizer in 2025 [5] Operational Strategy - The company leverages its "mining integration" and full industry chain operational advantages, adhering to a strategy of "full load, fast turnover, low inventory, and risk prevention" [5] - The company has completed the buyback of an 18.6% minority stake in its subsidiary, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, which has contributed to an increase in net profit [5] - The company is actively pursuing the development of its resources, including phosphate mining and coal resources, to strengthen its long-term industrial planning [6][9] Financial Management - The company has significantly improved its financial management, with a reduction in the asset-liability ratio from 89.13% in 2019 to 52.26% in 2024 [9] - The company has established a cash dividend plan for the next three years, aiming to distribute no less than 45% of the cumulative distributable profits [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.7x [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown improvements in gross profit margins for both phosphate and non-fertilizer businesses, with a continued decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio and an increase in the dividend payout ratio [4][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18% to 5.33 billion yuan [6]. - The report highlights the company's integrated advantages in the phosphate chemical industry and ongoing optimization of its debt structure [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 69.06 billion yuan in 2023, 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, and a slight decline to 61.34 billion yuan in 2025 [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.52 billion yuan in 2025, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 3.01 yuan [5][6]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2023 to 18.2% by 2025, reflecting operational efficiency [5][6]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 47.86%, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 6.1% based on the current market capitalization [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market performance [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown improvements in gross profit margins for phosphate and non-fertilizer businesses, with a continued decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio and an increase in the dividend payout ratio [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18% year-on-year to 5.33 billion yuan [6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 2.55 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 47.86% [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 61.34 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.52 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.5% [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 18.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [5][8]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio has decreased to 52.26%, down by 5.87 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continued optimization of the debt structure [6].

摘要 Q&A 云天化 2024 年度的财务表现如何？ 2024 年度，云天化实现营业收入 615 亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 53.33 亿元，同比增长 17.93%。经营性净现金流达到 107.52 亿元，同比增加 13 亿元。公司披露了年度现金分红方案，每 10 股派发 14 元现金分红，并计划 注销回购账户内的 1,134 万股股份。全年三项费用同比减少 1.32 亿元，带息负 债同比降低 40 亿元，财务费用减少 2.14 亿元，但管理费用增加 1.2 亿元，主 云天化 20250325 在生产端，公司大宗装置综合能力提升显著，中间产品如合成氨、磷酸、硫酸 产量有所提升，主要化肥产品如磷肥、尿素、复合肥产量同比显著增长。此外， 其他化工产品如聚甲醛、饲料级磷酸钙盐也有产量上升。在销售端，公司国内 市场以保供稳价为主，在国际市场则精准判断并有效协同国内外两个市场。主 要产品尿素、复合肥、聚甲醛销量同比上升，其中尿素和复合肥销量增幅较大。 云天化在磷矿石产量方面的情况如何？ 2024 年云天化披露的磷矿石产量为 1,150 万吨，与设计产能 1,450 万吨存在差 距。这是因为原矿需要通过辅选或擦 ...