石化ETF（159731）当前管理费率为0.50%（每年），托管费率为0.10%（每年），投资者还可以通过石 化ETF（159731）发起式联接基金A/C（017855/017856）布局板块投资机遇。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 消息面上，石化行业正处于四年下行周期底部，2026 年有望迎来周期反转。从行业周期看，资本开支 自 2023 年四季度以来已连续 7 个季度负增长，当前供给侧坚持去产能和 "反内卷"，叠加扩大内需政策 发力，周期反转逻辑持续强化；产业链呈现结构性分化，芳烃产业链受装置检修叠加春节前补库需求拉 动强势上涨，油品类因炼厂高负荷生产而物流、基建进入传统淡季表现偏弱，烯烃板块则受新增产能释 放与下游塑编、包装需求复苏缓慢影响短期承压。同时，PTA 行业联合减产有效提振盈利，新增产能 将于 2026 年底投放结束且未来暂无明确新增装置规划，聚酯产业链成本传导机制顺畅，主流涤纶长丝 减产保价推动成本向终端有效传导，近期化工类企业 2025 年业绩预告亮眼，钾肥、氟化工等细分赛道 龙头盈利修复，进一步传递行业景气度回升信号。 平安证券指出，中国石化化工业正处于上一轮价格周期底部向新一轮周期起 ...

国金证券分析称，周期板块多个细分领域涨价机会涌现，锂电产业链中的六氟磷酸锂、碳酸锂等掀起涨价潮，周期板块的钾肥、聚氨酯、氟化工等在供需错 配的催化下价格持续向好。在基本面有所改善的背景下，化工板块的配置占比在4 季度出现触底回升，考虑到当前板块扩产周期基本结束且盈利仍然处于周 期底部，同时从估值和仓位角度来看也存在一定的切换优势，因而继续看好大化工板块投资机会。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证石化产业指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、中国石油、中国石化、 盐湖股份、中国海油、藏格矿业、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比56.73%。 截至2026年1月26日9:59，中证石化产业指数上涨0.02%，成分股中国海油上涨3.15%，盐湖股份上涨2.3%，云天化上涨2.2%，中国石化上涨1.95%，中国石 油上涨1.83%。石化ETF(159731)上涨0.1%，最新价报1.03元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手8.41%。拉长时间看，截至1月23日，石化ETF近1周日均成交 1.3亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.73% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 7.29% this week [13][16]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, chlor-alkali, and dyeing chemicals have experienced significant price increases, with soda ash rising by 13.3% [16]. - The report highlights the competitive strength of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests focusing on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire as potential growth opportunities [4]. - The polyurethane project by Huide Technology, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, has commenced, indicating strategic growth in the new materials sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the phosphate chemical sector due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [13]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector is positive, with notable gains in various sub-industries [16]. Key Sub-Industry Developments - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI in East China is reported at 17,600 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 1.12% [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong is at 62.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices are at 1,757.45 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [63]. - **Vitamins**: The price of Vitamin A is reported at 61.5 RMB/kg, down 1.6% week-on-week [79]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are positioned strongly, with a focus on growth stocks [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies are expected to tighten the market [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in Vitamin A and E are noted, creating potential investment opportunities [4].

山东凯盛新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"凯盛新材"）1月20日发布业绩预告称，2025年，公司持续加 大国内外市场的开拓力度，主要产品的出货量增加，盈利能力增强，全年预计归属于上市公司股东的净 利润为1.1亿元至1.4亿元，同比增长96.47%至150.06%。 "去年，化工行业供给端产能扩张周期接近尾声，需求端迎来修复，叠加原料成本上涨以及部分化工产 品价格反弹，一定程度上推动了行业景气度回暖。"陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问朱华 雷对《证券日报》记者表示。 2026年，部分化工产品涨价态势有望延续。以DOP（邻苯二甲酸二辛酯）为例，受原料端价格持续坚 挺、市场现货流通较少等因素影响，国内DOP市场在2025年第四季度延续缓步上行走势。 本报记者 张文湘 贺王娟 2025年，受市场需求增长、部分化工产品涨价影响，多家化工企业业绩预增。同花顺数据显示，截至1 月22日记者发稿，已有近60家化工行业上市公司披露业绩预告，超六成业绩有所改善。 例如，广州天赐高新材料股份有限公司发布业绩预告称，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为11 亿元至16亿元，同比增长127.31%至230.63%。业绩预增主 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投 产后首车交付，SABIC 出售两大资产 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 0.45%，创业板指数上涨 1%， 沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.27%，申万化工指数上涨 0.9%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为电 子化学品(5.16%)、橡胶助剂(4.66%)、钾肥(4.23%)、合成树脂(3.67%)、磷肥及 磷化工(2.85%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为改性塑料(-4.01%)、钛白 粉(-2.84%)、橡胶制品(-1.43%)、轮胎(-1.18%)、纯碱(-0.85%)。 本周行业主要动态： 巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投产后首车交付。巴斯夫湛江一体化 基地再度迎来重要里程碑全新聚乙烯(PE)装置正式投产，并顺利完成首车 产品交付。2026 年 1 月 8 日，首批巴聚赋聚乙烯产品由专业运输车辆从湛 江基地发出，准时抵达客户仓库。这一成果不仅彰显了巴斯夫"以客户为 中心"的服 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the market's upward momentum has slowed, with trading funds remaining active, leading to a significant increase in turnover rates, surpassing the high point from August 2025 [3][9] - The report suggests that the spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation following excessive short-term trading is normal, with policies indicating a temporary cooling but maintaining an overall loose tone [9][10] - The report emphasizes that in the liquidity bull market phase, price increases may be a significant theme, driven by the narrative of re-pricing key resources under the backdrop of de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [4][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the long-term view remains optimistic about the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices, despite short-term fluctuations [4][24] - It identifies that the current price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security, with geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts enhancing the strategic value of resource commodities [10][24] - The report notes that both supply and demand sides benefit from the expansion of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and other emerging sectors, while traditional demand is recovering [24][25] Group 3 - The report outlines that the main drivers of the current price increase are supply constraints combined with demand shifts, with a focus on the elasticity of supply [24][32] - It mentions that the supply constraints include capacity limitations in key resources like copper and rare earths, as well as policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [24][32] - The report also points out that the demand side should focus on the expansion opportunities in new energy sectors, which are expected to drive growth [24][32] Group 4 - The report indicates that the market may continue to show strength in the near term, with potential volatility in January, but the overall downward risk is manageable [32][35] - It suggests that the liquidity environment is likely to remain favorable leading up to the Spring Festival, with the possibility of further capital inflows supporting market stability [32][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and the speed of supply release as potential sources of market volatility [32][35]

Group 1 - The core theme of 2025 is "resilience," reflecting the challenges faced throughout the year, including overseas liquidity shocks and supply-demand imbalances in various sectors [3] - The chemical and photovoltaic industries have undergone significant structural changes, moving from harmful competition to a focus on high-value product development and industry self-discipline [4] - The robotics sector has shifted from mere showcase to practical return on investment (ROI), indicating a more mature market with real orders rather than just concepts [4] - The automotive industry has demonstrated strong resilience, with leading companies expanding their presence globally despite intense price competition domestically [4] Group 2 - Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a key variable for growth, transitioning from a concept to a tangible productivity driver, enhancing China's technological capabilities [5] - Investment strategies have evolved from focusing on growth rates to emphasizing the quality of growth, particularly in the context of the electric vehicle (EV) industry [6] - The shift in the EV sector's investment logic reflects a move from market share competition to efficiency and resource allocation, with a focus on upstream supply-demand dynamics [7] - The importance of AI in defining smart vehicles has increased, with a focus on companies that possess core advantages in smart driving and cockpit technologies [7] Group 3 - The investment approach emphasizes the importance of maintaining composure during market fluctuations, recognizing that structural recoveries often occur in challenging times [8] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to enter a phase of fundamental improvement, driven by AI advancements and a commitment to avoiding internal competition [9] - Traditional industries like photovoltaics and chemicals are anticipated to achieve better supply-demand balance, leading to profit recovery for quality leaders [9] - The robotics sector is poised for significant growth, with key product launches expected to create market momentum [9]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic glass, energy metals, memory storage, gold, and fluorochemical concept stocks are performing strongly [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector has been rising for several consecutive days, with silver and non-ferrous metals increasing over 4%, and individual stocks such as Shengda Resources and Northern Copper Industries also seeing gains [1] - SMIC's A-shares and H-shares have both risen over 2%, with reports indicating a price increase of approximately 10% on some of its production capacity [1][4] Group 2 - The A-shares opened with all three major indices rising slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index also up 0.07% [2][3] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.07%, with notable gains in stocks like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [4][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 260 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while 468 billion yuan of reverse repos are set to mature today [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Shenhua (601088.SH) announced a significant acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, for a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, aimed at resolving long-standing industry competition issues and marking a significant event in the reform of state-owned enterprises [1][5] - The transaction involves 12 target companies across various sectors including coal, coal power, coal chemical, shipping, and ports, with a payment structure of 30% in shares and 70% in cash [2][3] - The acquisition is expected to enhance China Shenhua's resource and production capacity significantly, with coal reserves increasing by 64.72% to 68.49 billion tons and coal production rising by 56.57% to 512 million tons [3][4] Group 2 - The financial metrics post-transaction indicate a projected increase in operating revenue by 27.27%, net profit by 11.56%, and total assets by 40.99% compared to pre-restructuring figures [4] - The restructuring aligns with broader state-owned enterprise reforms initiated in 2023, which emphasize market-driven consolidation to improve asset allocation efficiency [5][6] - The article highlights several other significant mergers and acquisitions in the state-owned sector in 2023, indicating a trend towards large-scale consolidations aimed at enhancing competitiveness and operational efficiency [6][7]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]