证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 新宙邦（300037） 2025 半年报点评：业绩符合市场预期，氟化 工稳中有升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,484 | 7,847 | 10,963 | 13,928 | 17,779 | | 同比（%） | (22.53) | 4.85 | 39.71 | 27.05 | 27.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,011.07 | 942.05 | 1,194.03 | 1,632.17 | 2,025.46 | | 同比（%） | (42.50) | (6.83) | 26.75 | 36.69 | 24.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.35 | 1.26 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 2.71 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.04 | 37.61 | 29.67 | 21.71 | 17.49 | 证券分析师 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Duofuduo is reported at 12.49 yuan as of August 7, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day reached 277 million yuan, with a fluctuation of 2.13% [1] - Duofuduo's main business includes industrial and other sectors, with industrial activities accounting for 76.31% of its operations [1] Group 2 - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of fluorochemical products, which are widely used in new energy and electronic materials [1] - On August 7, the board of directors approved a proposal to permanently supplement working capital with 8.7139 million yuan of surplus raised funds [1] - The company also discussed temporary replenishment of idle raised funds and the establishment of special accounts [1] Group 3 - On August 7, there was a net outflow of main funds amounting to 31.0651 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 15.0040 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Baotou's GDP reached 232.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, outperforming the national growth rate of 5.3% and the regional rate of 5.4% by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The contribution rates to economic growth from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 0.8%, 60.7%, and 38.5% respectively, with the secondary industry showing a significant increase of 9.6% [1] Industrial Development - Baotou has four trillion-yuan industries: rare earth, crystalline silicon photovoltaic, steel, and aluminum, with significant growth in rare earth (16.7%), crystalline silicon photovoltaic (14.1%), and onshore wind power equipment (32.6%) [2] - The industrial added value of Baotou's new industries, including fluorochemical, carbon fiber, and hydrogen energy storage, grew by 12.5%, slightly above the overall industrial growth rate [2] Investment Trends - Investment in the wind power industry increased by 300% year-on-year, contributing 12.0 percentage points to total investment growth, while investment in the rare earth industry surged by 93.4%, adding 2.9 percentage points [3] - Baotou aims to achieve a total GDP of around 500 billion yuan by the end of the year, marking a significant step towards reaching its historical peak [2]

Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

Group 1: Industry Recovery Insights - Certain industries are expected to show signs of recovery by 2025 after facing difficulties in recent times, impacting the overall economic landscape [1] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a turning point in the second half of 2024, with increased cold repair furnace numbers, capacity contraction, and gradual inventory reduction leading to price stabilization and recovery [3] - The lithium battery equipment sector is witnessing a shift as major companies like CATL and BYD restart capacity expansion in Q3 2024, indicating a turning point for the industry [5] Group 2: Financial and Real Estate Sector Dynamics - The financial and real estate sectors are currently at historical low PB valuations, with banks and real estate at 0.5 times PB, suggesting that stock prices may have bottomed out ahead of fundamentals [7] - Policy measures such as real estate storage and replacement initiatives are expected to boost market demand, while supply-side adjustments are reshaping the market landscape [7] Group 3: Resource and Traditional Industry Trends - Upstream resources for new energy, such as lithium and silicon materials, are facing severe market sentiment and low valuations due to overcapacity and price drops in 2024, but long-term demand is expected to rise with increased penetration of electric vehicles and energy storage [9] - Traditional cyclical industries like chemicals and building materials are under pressure from a sluggish real estate market, but increased infrastructure investment and inventory cycle bottoming may lead to price rebounds [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting the recovery at the bottom of the cycle and the focus on undervalued high-growth stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic assessment of the chemical industry indicates a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term. Natural gas prices are fluctuating at the bottom [3][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability for the chemical sector in Q1 2025, driven by terminal inventory replenishment and improved demand, despite ongoing construction projects peaking and declining [3]. - The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 is projected to reach 2.0601 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 3% to 109.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil prices are influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff policies, with Brent crude averaging $80.93 per barrel in 2024, down 2% year-on-year. NYMEX natural gas futures are expected to average $2.41 per million British thermal units, down 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a "V"-shaped recovery in market conditions, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 9% year-on-year to 32.8 billion yuan [3]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical, as well as growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies [3]. - The tire industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and cost reductions, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire highlighted for potential investment [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential in the chemical sector, particularly in segments like agricultural chemicals and specialty chemicals [3]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in price differentials, with PPI data showing a slow recovery from negative values towards zero [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements in key chemical products, as these factors will influence future profitability and investment opportunities [3][4].

Summary of the Conference Call for Xinjubang Company Overview - **Company**: Xinjubang - **Industry**: Lithium battery materials, fluorochemical products, capacitor chemicals Key Points and Arguments 1. Sales and Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, Xinjubang achieved revenue of 2.002 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.14% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year [3] - Lithium battery business saw a significant sales increase of approximately 70-80% year-on-year, although overall revenue was pressured by price declines [2][5] 2. Growth Drivers - The main growth drivers were fluorochemical products and capacitor chemicals, both achieving double-digit growth in sales and profit contributions [2][6] - The semiconductor and cosmetics sectors performed well, albeit from a smaller base [2][6] 3. International Sales and Market Strategy - Overseas sales accounted for approximately 20-30% of electrolyte sales, with significant contributions from fluorochemical and capacitor chemicals [10][12] - The company exports primarily through its European factory in Poland, mitigating short-term tariff impacts [5][10] - The Malaysian factory is in the planning stage, with a construction period of about two years, and will adjust its pace based on market demand [10] 4. Product Development and Market Position - Following 3M's exit from the market, there may be inventory accumulation among downstream customers for organic fluorine products [7] - The company is expanding its product range, including cooling and cleaning products, to drive business growth [7][8] 5. Price Stability and Market Outlook - Current prices for fluorinated liquids are stable, with short-term price declines unlikely due to the slowdown in wafer factory growth [12] - Long-term trends suggest gradual price decreases as production increases [12] 6. Future Performance Expectations - The company aims for a profit target of 1.1 billion yuan for 2025, with expectations for better performance in the second half of the year [4][15] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the fluorochemical sector, which is less affected by tariff policies [4][15] 7. Challenges and Risks - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on electrolyte exports remains uncertain, although currently manageable [13][20] - The company is closely monitoring the evolving market conditions and regulatory environment, particularly regarding environmental regulations affecting competitors like 3M [11][16] 8. Strategic Collaborations and Innovations - The capacitor chemicals business is expected to remain a core growth pillar, supported by leading technology and stable quality [3][21] - Ongoing R&D collaborations, such as with Jianghai for MLCC conductive polymer materials, are still in the development phase [21] 9. Stock Incentive Plans - The company confirmed stock incentive expenses for 2023 and plans to allocate approximately 60 million yuan for the new incentive plan starting in May 2025 [19] 10. Overall Market Position - Xinjubang's performance shows resilience compared to peers, with stable growth in fluorochemical and capacitor businesses despite challenges in electrolyte profitability [22] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, growth strategies, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.5% [8] - The report anticipates a turning point in fluorochemical and electrolyte segments in 2025, driven by high growth in electrolyte shipments and increasing overseas orders [8] - The company has acquired a 42% stake in Shilei, which is expected to enable self-supply of hexafluoropropylene, meeting 40-50% of its electrolyte demand [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,484 million yuan in 2023 to 16,678 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.95% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,011.07 million yuan in 2023 to 2,005.03 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 23.97% [1] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 1.34 yuan in 2023 to 2.66 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25x for 2025 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.847 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.83% to 942 million yuan [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with significant projects underway in Nantong, Chongqing, and the United States, aiming for a total designed capacity of 455,400 tons [3]. - The electrolyte business faced pressure on profitability due to declining product prices, despite a substantial increase in sales volume of 66.8% year-on-year, reaching approximately 350,000 tons [3]. - The fluorochemical segment reported a revenue of 1.529 billion yuan, growing by 7.25% year-on-year, benefiting from a focus on high-end fine chemicals and fluoropolymer applications [3]. - The company’s capacitor and semiconductor chemical segments showed strong growth, with revenues of 766 million yuan and 368 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 21.91% and 18.35%, respectively [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.613 billion yuan, 11.690 billion yuan, and 13.655 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 21.6%, and 16.8% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.097 billion yuan, 1.318 billion yuan, and 1.460 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 16.5%, 20.2%, and 10.8% respectively [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 24, 20, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit, with ongoing global capacity expansion in its electrolyte and fluorochemical businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 942 million yuan, a decrease of 6.83% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.180 billion yuan, up 14.68% year-on-year and 4.56% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 241 million yuan, an increase of 12.62% year-on-year but a decrease of 15.73% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.95%, down 1.14 percentage points year-on-year and 0.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The battery chemicals segment shipped approximately 350,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%, although product prices continued to decline, leading to only a slight increase in sales revenue [2]. - The fluorochemical business generated revenue of 1.529 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%, with a gross margin of 9.34% [2]. - The company’s capacitor chemicals revenue reached 766 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.91%, while semiconductor chemicals revenue was 368 million yuan, up 18.35% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing several projects, including the Nantong battery chemicals project and the Chongqing battery materials project, with a total designed capacity of 455,400 tons and 212,200 tons under construction, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 83.16% [2]. - In the fluorochemical sector, projects such as the Haidefu high-performance fluoromaterials project and the Sanming Haisefu fluorochemical project are under construction, with a focus on high-end fine chemicals [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 9.613 billion yuan, 11.690 billion yuan, and 13.655 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 21.6%, and 16.8% respectively [3]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.097 billion yuan, 1.318 billion yuan, and 1.460 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.5%, 20.2%, and 10.8% respectively [3].