证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 煤炭开采 俄煤：25Q1 海运出口同比-2.9%，库兹巴斯煤企亏损面至 57% 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 66.87 美元/桶，较上周下跌 1.09 美元/桶（-1.60%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 63.02 美元/桶，较上周下跌 1.66 美元/桶（- 2.57%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 10.98 美元/百万 英热，较上周下跌 0.91 美元/百万英热（-7.7%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货 结算价 32.32 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周下跌 3.26 欧元/兆瓦时（-9.2%）；美 国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 2.94 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.31 美元/ 百万英热（-9.5%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸 价 92.3 美元/吨，较上周下跌 7.6 美元/吨（-7.6%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭 （6000K）FOB 价 93.8 美元/吨，较上周下跌 1.3/吨（-1.4%）；IP ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) [4][7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 23.53% year-on-year to 30.312 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.89% to 2.71 billion yuan [1] - Coal sales volume declined by 8.1% year-on-year, while production increased by 6.3% to 36.8 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal dropped by 24.19% year-on-year to 551.2 yuan per ton, impacting overall profitability [2] - The chemical business showed improvement with a 39.08% increase in gross profit to 1.459 billion yuan, despite a 6.18% decline in selling price [3] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Northwest Mining for 14.066 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 30.312 billion yuan, down 23.53% year-on-year; net profit was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.89% [1] - Coal production increased to 36.8 million tons, while sales volume decreased to 31.43 million tons [2] - The gross profit from coal business fell by 32.77% to 5.937 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 34.27% [2] - Chemical business gross profit rose by 39.08% to 1.459 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.16% [3] - Power generation decreased to 1.793 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 51 million yuan [3] Strategic Developments - The company is acquiring a 51% stake in Northwest Mining, which has a total production capacity of 61.05 million tons per year [4] - This acquisition is a step towards achieving the company's goal of 300 million tons of raw coal production [4] Earnings Forecast - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.618 billion yuan, 11.626 billion yuan, and 12.098 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has implemented significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, leading to a steady increase in coal production. In Q1 2025, the company produced 36.8 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The target for 2025 is to achieve a commercial coal production of 155-160 million tons [3][4] - The coal chemical business has seen a notable increase in profitability due to the decline in coal prices. In Q1 2025, the chemical product output was 2.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The gross profit for the coal chemical business reached 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [3][4] - The company is pursuing both organic and external growth strategies, with significant future growth potential. The company plans to acquire a 26% stake in Northwest Mining for 4.748 billion yuan and invest 9.318 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance profitability and support the goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal production [3][4] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 30.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.86% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 3.662 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.04% year-on-year [1][3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 13.3 billion, 13.9 billion, and 14.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.32, 1.39, and 1.41 yuan per share [4][5] - The company's debt ratio is 62.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.06 percentage points, indicating improved financial stability [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in coal production, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in place. In Q1 2025, the company produced 36.8 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The target for 2025 is to achieve a commercial coal production of 155-160 million tons [3] - The coal chemical business has seen a notable increase in profitability due to the decline in coal prices. In Q1 2025, the chemical product output was 2.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The gross profit for the coal chemical business reached 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [3] - The company is pursuing both organic and external growth strategies, with significant future growth potential. The company plans to acquire a 26% stake in Northwest Mining for 4.748 billion yuan and increase its capital by 9.318 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance profitability and support the goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal production [3][4] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 30.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.86% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 3.662 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.04% year-on-year [1][3] - The company's financial forecasts for 2025-2027 predict net profits attributable to shareholders of 13.3 billion, 13.9 billion, and 14.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.32, 1.39, and 1.41 yuan per share [4][5] - The company's debt ratio stands at 62.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.06 percentage points, indicating improved financial stability [1]

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 30.31 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year and down 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The coal business is on track to reach a production capacity target of 300 million tons [4] - The chemical business is experiencing a recovery in gross profit, with ongoing advancements in high-end chemical new materials [3] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company reported a coal production of 36.8 million tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year and a slight increase of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The self-produced coal sales volume was 30.49 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year and down 9.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The average selling price of coal (excluding trade) was 545 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14.4% quarter-on-quarter and 18.5% year-on-year [9] - The comprehensive cost of coal was 318 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [9] - The company is progressing with several projects to increase coal production capacity, including the Shandong Wanfeng coal mine and the Xinjiang Wucaiwan open-pit mine [9] Chemical Business - The company produced 2.41 million tons of chemical products in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year and an increase of 8.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The sales volume of chemical products was 2.02 million tons, up 7.3% year-on-year and up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The comprehensive selling price of chemical products was 3,122 yuan per ton, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The gross profit margin for chemical products increased by 29.4% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 723 yuan per ton [9] Financial Projections - The company plans to produce 155-160 million tons of commercial coal and 8.6-9 million tons of chemical products in 2025 [10] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 9.9 billion, 11.9 billion, and 13.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.6X, 10.5X, and 9.1X [10] - The company aims to reduce the sales cost per ton of coal by 3% year-on-year and to lower the debt-to-asset ratio to below 60% [10]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 26 年 月 日 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 化工业务毛利回升，煤炭业务向"3 亿吨"产能目标继续迈进 公司发布 2025 年 Q1 业绩公告。2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 303.1 亿元， 同比-23.5%，环比-6.7%；归母净利润 27.1 亿元，同比-27.9%，环比- 10.3%。 煤炭业务：产量增长、毛利下行，成长可期。 化工：产销增长，毛利回升，高端化工新材料持续推进。 向"3 亿吨"产能目标继续迈进。 多元矿业发展，夯实"资源为王"。公司积极布局多矿种领域，在加拿大 拥有 6 个钾盐采矿权，探明优质氯化钾资源量 17 亿吨；拟建设内蒙古曹 | 买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 股票信息 | | | 行业 | 煤炭开采 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 04 月 25 日收盘价（元） | 12.43 | | 总市值（百万元） | 124,795.46 | | 总股本（百万股） | 10,039.86 | | 其中自由流通股（%） | 99.60 | | 30 日日均成交量（百万股） | 25.27 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Energy reported a steady performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 30.3 billion and a net profit of 2.71 billion, despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and coal market fluctuations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company accelerated the release of its advantageous production capacity, resulting in a coal output of 36.8 million tons, an increase of 2.17 million tons year-on-year [1] - The chemical segment produced 2.41 million tons of chemical products, contributing an additional profit of 440 million year-on-year [1] - The cost of self-produced coal sales decreased to 318 yuan per ton, a reduction of 13.8% year-on-year, while the unit sales costs for methanol and acetic acid decreased by 16.4% and 14.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Yancoal Energy announced the acquisition of high-quality coal assets from its controlling shareholder, Shandong Energy Group, which is expected to contribute over 1.1 billion in net profit in 2025 and increase coal resources by 7.305 billion tons [2] - The acquisition will also add approximately 30 million tons to the company's coal output, bringing the total annual output to between 180 million and 190 million tons [2] - The company anticipates improved coal supply and demand dynamics in Q2 2025, driven by macroeconomic policy effects and seasonal demand increases [2]