[Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=Item%20I.%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Forecast) The company forecasts a significant year-on-year decline in H1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to approximately 4.65 billion CNY, a 38% decrease H1 2025 Performance Forecast (vs. Prior Year) | Metric | H1 2025 (Estimated) | H1 2024 (Statutory Disclosure) | Year-on-Year Change (CNY) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | Approx. 4.65 billion | 7.6 billion | Decrease of approx. 2.9 billion | Decrease of approx. 38% | | Non-recurring Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | Approx. 4.4 billion | 7.3 billion | Decrease of approx. 2.9 billion | Decrease of approx. 39% | - The company consolidated Shandong Energy Group Northwest Mining Co., Ltd. ("Northwest Mining") in July 2025 and will retrospectively adjust financial data for prior years and from January 2025[3](index=3&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Prior Period Performance](index=2&type=section&id=Item%20II.%20Prior%20Period%20Performance) The company disclosed H1 2024 performance as a benchmark, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 7.6 billion CNY, and retrospectively adjusted prior period EPS due to stock dividends H1 2024 Performance Review | Metric | Amount/Value | | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | 7.6 billion CNY | | Non-recurring Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | 7.3 billion CNY | | Retrospectively Adjusted EPS | 0.79 CNY/share | [Analysis of Performance Change Reasons](index=2&type=section&id=Item%20III.%20Reasons%20for%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Change) The significant year-on-year performance decline is primarily due to loose coal market supply and demand, leading to a substantial drop in coal prices, partially offset by operational optimizations and cost controls - The performance decline is primarily attributed to overall loose coal supply and demand, resulting in a significant year-on-year decrease in coal prices[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The company partially mitigated the impact of falling coal prices through optimized production, precise efficiency improvements, enhanced cost control, and synergistic gains from chemical operations[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The company plans to actively respond to market changes in H2 by leveraging advantageous capacity, strengthening cost management, and expanding marketing channels to create shareholder value[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=Item%20IV.%20Risk%20Warning) The company confirms no material uncertainties exist that would affect the accuracy of this performance forecast as of the announcement date - The company confirms there are currently no material uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this performance forecast[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Other Explanations](index=3&type=section&id=Item%20V.%20Other%20Explanations) The company emphasizes that the forecast data is preliminary, with final figures subject to the official H1 2025 report, and confirms the July 2025 acquisition of Northwest Mining, requiring retrospective financial adjustments - The performance data disclosed is preliminary, with final results subject to the official semi-annual report[9](index=9&type=chunk) - The company completed the acquisition of **51% equity** in Northwest Mining on July 11, 2025, and will consolidate its financial statements from July, with retrospective adjustments in the Q3 report[9](index=9&type=chunk)

报告期内，兖矿能源优化生产组织扩能增量，主要产品产能高效释放，挖潜增效精准发力，成本管控取 得良好效果，化工业务实现较好协同增盈，一定程度上对冲了煤炭价格周期性下行影响。但由于煤炭供 需总体宽松，煤价较同期大幅下降，影响归母净利润同比减少。 智通财经APP讯，兖矿能源(600188.SH)发布公告，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净利润约46.5亿元，与上年同期(法定披露数据)相比，减少29亿元左右，同比减少38%左右。 ...

格隆汇8月13日丨据兖矿能源公告，按中国会计准则初步测算，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司预计2025年 半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约46.5亿元，与上年同期数据相比，减少约29亿元或38%；预 计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约44亿元，与上年同期数据相 比，减少约29亿元或39%。 ...

人民财讯8月13日电，兖矿能源（600188）8月13日晚间公告，预计2025年上半年实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润约46.5亿元，与上年同期相比，减少29亿元左右，同比减少38%左右。报告期内，煤炭供需 总体宽松，煤价较上年同期大幅下降。 ...

报告期内，兖矿能源优化生产组织扩能增量，主要产品产能高效释放，挖潜增效精准发力，成本管控取 得良好效果，化工业务实现较好协同增盈，一定程度上对冲了煤炭价格周期性下行影响。但由于煤炭供 需总体宽松，煤价较同期大幅下降，影响归母净利润同比减少。下半年，公司将积极应对市场变化，科 学合理优化生产组织，坚定不移释放优势产能；全面加强成本管理，最大限度挖潜降本增效；拓展营销 增值渠道，持续挖掘价值创造潜能，为广大投资者创造良好价值回报。 格隆汇8月13日丨兖矿能源(600188.SH)公布，1.经公司财务部门初步测算，本公司预计2025年半年度实 现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约46.5亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，减少29亿元左右，同 比减少38%左右；2.经公司财务部门初步测算，本公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣 除非经常性损益的净利润约44亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，减少29亿元左右，同比减少 39%左右。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report highlights that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is positioned to benefit from the recent stabilization of coal prices and the potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints in the coal market. The company exhibits both defensive and offensive characteristics, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Current Market Conditions - The report notes that the coal price has rebounded, with the port price for thermal coal reaching 688 RMB/ton as of August 12, an increase of 67 RMB/ton (+11%) since early July. This price recovery is attributed to ongoing supply tightening in the coal market [6]. Investment Logic - The investment logic for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is based on several factors: 1. High proportion of spot sales allows the company to benefit significantly from price increases. 2. The company has a unique growth profile characterized by both organic growth and external acquisitions. 3. The significant discount of H-shares compared to A-shares enhances the investment value, particularly with a high dividend yield [2]. Sales and Profitability - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has a high proportion of spot sales, with 52% of its self-produced coal sales being thermal coal, most of which is not under long-term contracts. This results in a higher earnings elasticity compared to other major coal producers. A 100 RMB/ton increase in thermal coal prices could potentially increase the company's earnings by approximately 5.3 billion RMB, representing a 56% increase in expected earnings for 2025 [12][14]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year within 5-10 years. In 2024, the company produced 142 million tons of commodity coal, with plans for significant capacity expansions through both internal projects and acquisitions. The expected increase in coal production capacity is projected to be around 49.8 million tons per year [12][14]. Dividend Policy - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% from 2023 to 2025, with a projected dividend yield of 5.7% for H-shares in 2025. This high dividend yield is a key attraction for investors [12][17]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.5 billion RMB in 2025, translating to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.2x based on the closing price on August 12. The estimated dividend yield based on the 2024 payout ratio is 3.8% [12][25].

煤炭股涨幅居前，截至发稿，蒙古焦煤(00975)涨3.69%，报8.42港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨 2.85%，报10.47港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨2.85%，报9.75港元；中国神华（601088）(01088) 涨2.78%，报37.6港元。 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭行业的供给侧收紧成为投资主题，煤炭供大于求的局面有望逐步扭转， 煤价也有望继续提升，随着各地气温逐步升高，火电发电量增长，火电厂日均煤耗迅速增加，伴随着煤 炭需求起量，煤炭供需格局或有所好转。本次反内卷虽名义上是"查超产"，但超产究其原因还是煤价过 低、煤企亏损带来的"以量换价"，因此煤价回到合理位置，才能使煤炭行业正常发展，未来也可展望对 于进口煤的限制。 国泰海通认为，2025Q1暖冬天气因素导致的总量需求不及预期已经过去，随着全社会用电总量的快速 恢复，5月开始电煤需求已经开始恢复1%以上的增长，同时结合新能源的"430、531"新政，在新能源装 机总量见顶背景下，2025H1或成为未来3-5年需求压力最大的时刻。而近期国家能源局发声煤炭行业"反 内卷"，同时650元/吨价格下给予市场的现实 ...

1月20日晚，兖矿能源、平煤股份两家煤炭开采行业上市公司对外披露2022年全年业绩预告，业绩均接 近翻倍。 兖矿能源预计，2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约308亿元。此前的陕西煤业发布业绩预告 称，预计2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润340亿元至362亿元。这两家公司每天净赚近亿元，成 为名副其实的"日进斗金"。 截至目前，A股共有9家煤炭开采行业上市公司对外披露2022年业绩预告，全部预喜，煤炭开采行业上 市公司整体表现不俗。 业绩大幅提升 兖矿能源1月20日晚间披露2022年业绩预增公告，公司预计2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约 308亿元，同比增长89%；预计2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约306亿 元，同比增长89%。 陕西煤业预计2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润340亿元至362亿元，同比增长58%至68%；扣除 非经常性损益后的净利润280亿元至302亿元，同比增长37%至47%。 平煤股份预计2022年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约57.2亿元，同比增长 95.76%；预计2022年度 实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净 ...

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to recover to the second target of 700 yuan, with a steady layout in the coal sector [5][13] - The current price of thermal coal has rebounded to above the first target price of 670 yuan, which is the annual long-term contract price for central enterprises [5][13] - The report highlights that the fundamentals of thermal coal remain favorable, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity [5][13] - The current price has surpassed the first target and is expected to reach the second target of around 700 yuan [5][13] - Future expectations include a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan and a fourth target price of around 860 yuan [5][13] Key Indicators Overview - The coal index increased by 3.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41 percentage points [8][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.12, and the PB ratio is 1.24, ranking low among all A-share industries [28] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 8, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 682 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 11.99% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][21] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas is at 80.1%, indicating a relatively low level for the year [4][21] - Port inventories have decreased by 25.6% from the highest level of 33.16 million tons earlier this year [4][21] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan [4][22] - Coking coal futures have seen a significant rebound, increasing by 70.65% from 719 yuan in early June to the current price [4][22] - The report notes a strong expectation for coking coal prices, driven by supply tightening measures and demand from the steel industry [4][22]