基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 寻找景气复苏的周期行业之十三：乙二醇 2025-01-23 站在新秩序的起点：化工行业 2025 年度投 资策略 2024-12-18 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 本周化肥产品持续涨价 ⚫ 我们监测的 188 种化工产品中，本周价格涨幅前 3 名的产品分别为硫酸（上涨 16.6%）、硫磺（上涨 13.4%）、氯化钾（上涨 11.2%）；跌幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leading companies in the chemical industry at this time [1] Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the real estate market is significantly supporting the demand for chemical materials, particularly in new and second-hand home renovations, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in major cities [3][4] - Anticipated policy measures from the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to benefit the chemical industry, particularly in refining and ethylene sectors, by optimizing industrial layout and increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4] - The cost pressures on chemical companies have substantially eased due to a significant decline in coal prices and oil prices, which enhances profitability [4] - The valuation of leading chemical stocks is at historical lows, with the price-to-book ratio of CITIC's segmented chemical leaders at only 2.03 times, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [5] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the petrochemical industry, with capital expenditures declining and new capacity releases concluding, leading to a gradual improvement in industry conditions [6] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume across 30 major cities and a 45% increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, which supports chemical demand [3][4] Policy Expectations - The upcoming Two Sessions may introduce favorable policies for the chemical industry, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing high-end production [3][4] Cost Pressure Relief - Recent declines in coal prices (down 200-300 RMB/ton) and oil prices (around $70/barrel) have significantly reduced cost pressures for major chemical companies, improving their profitability [4] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-book ratio for leading chemical stocks is at a low historical level, suggesting a disconnect between stock prices and fundamental improvements, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5] Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase post-2025, following a three-year down cycle, with capital expenditures decreasing and new capacity reaching its peak [6] Company-Specific Developments - Wanhua Chemical is facing challenges but has strong fundamentals in its MBIA business, with prices for key products at high levels, indicating potential for profit growth [7][8] - Hualu Hengsheng's urea business is performing well with over 3 million tons of capacity and improving profitability despite price fluctuations [12] - Longbai Group is expected to see improved profitability due to limited global titanium ore supply and increased production capacity [21] - Baofeng Energy is benefiting from lower coal prices, leading to significant profit growth in its coal-to-olefins projects [22]

宁德时代在安徽成立新公司 近日，时代骐骥新能源科技（宣城）有限公司成立，法定代表人为熊洪瑞，注册资本500万人民币，经营范围含新兴能源技术研发、新能源汽 车换电设施销售、在线能源计量技术研发、合同能源管理、电池销售、信息系统运行维护服务、充电桩销售、机动车充电销售等。 3月1日，福鼎时代锂离子电池生产基地5号超级工厂项目正式封顶。 福鼎时代5号超级工厂项目厂房单体建筑面积达23万平方米，布局了4条国际领先的新能源电池超级生产线及智能制造设备，年产能力将达到 25GWh新能源动力电池。项目于2024年10月21日正式开工，预计2025年8月投产。 亿纬锂能增资锂电材料头部企业 天眼查App显示，近日，贝特瑞新材料科技有限公司发生工商变更，新增亿纬锂能为股东，注册资本由5亿人民币增至6亿人民币，同时，法定 代表人及多位高管均发生变更。 资料显示，贝特瑞（四川）新材料科技有限公司成立于2020年5月，法定代表人为田立斌，经营范围含合成材料制造、合成材料销售、石墨及 碳素制品制造、石墨及碳素制品销售、电池制造、塑料制品制造、电子专用材料制造等。 亿纬锂能与三一重卡合作升级 近日，三一重卡与亿纬锂能2025年战略研讨会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of chemical prices, driven by seasonal demand and cost opportunities, recommending resilient companies with long-term growth potential and new material leaders [2][5] - The overall market performance shows a notable recovery in chemical prices, with 32 products increasing in price and 38 decreasing, indicating a general improvement in industry sentiment [5][11] - The report highlights the potential for supply-demand dynamics to improve from 2025 onwards, with policies aimed at addressing overcapacity and enhancing market conditions [5][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.97%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.99% during the week of February 17-21, with the basic chemical index up by 1.76%, ranking 9th among 30 sectors [7] - Key chemical products such as liquid chlorine and sulfur saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine in East China rising by 19.67% [5][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand [5][12] - New material leaders such as Ruifeng New Materials and Blue Sky Technology are also highlighted for their growth potential [5][12] Key Company Tracking - Wanhu Chemical's MDI prices remained stable, with a slight decrease in certain product prices, indicating a cautious market outlook [16] - Yaxiang Co. is noted for its strategic overseas expansion to mitigate high tariff pressures from the U.S. [21][22] - Juhua Co. is projected to benefit from a favorable refrigerant market cycle, with significant expected profit growth in 2024 [24][25]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2025-02 号 公司股东 Prime Partner International Limited 持有万华化学股份 172,993,229 股， 占公司总股本比例 5.51%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，Prime Partner International Limited 累计质押股份 116,655,045 股，占其持股数量比例 67.43%。 万华化学集团股份有限公司于 2025 年 2 月 17 日获悉股东 Prime Partner International Limited（中文名称"合成国际控股有限公司"，以下简称"合成 国际"）所持有本公司的部分股份被质押，具体情况如下。 2.本次质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他 保障用途。 3.股东累计质押股份情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东累计质押股份情况如下： 1 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream industries, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [1] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1] - The report highlights the high prosperity of leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin industries [1] - It notes an overall improvement in macroeconomic expectations, suggesting attention to undervalued leading companies and those in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of February 10-16, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 43 saw price increases, 26 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [7] - The average price of WTI crude oil was $70.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while Brent crude oil was $74.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [31] - The report indicates a tightening supply of potassium chloride due to reduced production and limited import availability, with prices rising to 2797 CNY/ton, up 4.19% week-on-week [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the rapidly developing electronic materials and new energy materials sectors [8] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will continue to see high prosperity, with energy state-owned enterprises improving quality and efficiency [8] - The report identifies specific companies to recommend, including China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the new materials and chemical sectors [8] Price Changes - The average price of DMF increased to 4300 CNY/ton, up 4.24% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [33] - The report notes that the overall market for chemical products is experiencing a mixed trend, with some products seeing significant price increases while others decline [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Recent trade frictions have raised concerns about economic growth, leading to downward pressure on oil prices, while leading stocks remain weak. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices for bottom-fishing opportunities. Additionally, the importance of food security has increased due to global instability, making agricultural and food supply chains more resilient. The report anticipates sustained economic improvement and upward elasticity from supply-side adjustments [11] Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of February 14, Brent oil price increased by 0.1% to $74.74 per barrel. Concerns over U.S. sanctions on certain oil-producing countries initially pushed prices up, but an increase in U.S. commercial oil inventories and easing geopolitical tensions led to a price retraction. As of February 7, U.S. commercial oil inventories stood at 427.9 million barrels, a weekly increase of 4.1 million barrels [12] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were petroleum coke (up 24.0%), natural gas (up 12.5%), and acetone (up 7.6%). The top three price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 26.9%), threonine (down 14.0%), and vitamin B2 (down 6.3%) [13] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects expected to launch [11] - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again after addressing previous macro demand pressures [11] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in core product conditions [11] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustained demand for phosphate rock [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][16] Core Views - The global MDI manufacturers have raised prices due to rising raw material, energy, and logistics costs, which supports the industry's upward trend [2][3][4] - Demand is bolstered by policies promoting home renovation and automotive upgrades, indicating strong support for the MDI market [3][9] - Wanhua Chemical is a leading player in the polyurethane industry, with stable profit guarantees and ongoing project advancements [3][16] Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Major polyurethane companies have increased MDI and TDI prices across various regions, with Wanhua Chemical raising prices by $200/ton in the ASEAN region [2][4] - MDI market prices have increased since the beginning of the year, with prices for polymer MDI and pure MDI reaching 18,875 and 19,550 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 750 and 1,150 CNY/ton [2][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side benefits from policies supporting home appliance upgrades and automotive replacements, with significant production increases in refrigerators and freezers [9] - The MDI market is experiencing strong export levels, with polymer MDI exports reaching 100,500 tons in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 87% [5][9] Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is set to contribute significantly to global MDI capacity expansion, with plans to add 130,000 tons of new capacity [12][13] - The company has multiple ongoing projects, including a 600,000-ton MDI capacity expansion project expected to be completed in 2025 [12][16] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Wanhua Chemical from 2024 to 2026 are 14.708 billion, 17.272 billion, and 18.944 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.68, 5.50, and 6.03 CNY [3][16] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.7, 12.5, and 11.4 for the years 2024 to 2026 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable growth in its polyurethane business, with MDI capacity projected to increase from 3.5 million tons to 4.9 million tons over the next 3-4 years, raising its market share from 32.62% to 38.72% [1] - The petrochemical segment's profitability is expected to improve with the commissioning of the ethylene phase II project in 2025, increasing C2 capacity to 2.2 million tons [1] - The new materials segment continues to launch new products, with ongoing investments in battery materials and other products [1] Company Financials - The company's projected revenue for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024: 189.48 billion RMB, 2025: 216.82 billion RMB, 2026: 229.35 billion RMB, with growth rates of 8.05%, 14.43%, and 5.78% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 15.38 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 19.49 billion RMB by 2026 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.90 RMB, 5.75 RMB, and 6.21 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Price Tracking - The price of pure MDI is projected to be 18,611 RMB per ton in January 2025, a decrease of 145 RMB from December 2024, reflecting a -0.77% change [1] - The TDI price is expected to be 13,458 RMB per ton in January 2025, an increase of 494 RMB from December 2024, showing a 3.81% change [2] Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a polyurethane production volume of 1.38 million tons, a decrease of 6.12% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 15.97% year-on-year [18] - The sales volume for the same period was 1.41 million tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 13.71% [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Wanhua Chemical with a target price of **100.47 yuan**, based on a 17x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting a 15% premium due to its superior long-term ROE and historical growth [4][7] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical is expected to reach a significant inflection point in 2025, driven by improved profitability in its polyurethane business and enhanced dividend potential [2][9] - The polyurethane business, particularly MDI, is anticipated to benefit from a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited new global capacity additions and steady demand growth [9][12] - The company's dividend capacity is expected to improve as capital expenditures on heavy-asset projects decrease, shifting focus from upstream bulk chemicals to downstream new materials and fine chemicals [9][13] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **175.36 billion yuan** in 2023 to **229.48 billion yuan** in 2026, with a CAGR of **6.1%** [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from **16.82 billion yuan** in 2023 to **21.45 billion yuan** in 2026, with a CAGR of **15.6%** [6] - EPS is adjusted to **4.76 yuan**, **5.91 yuan**, and **6.83 yuan** for 2024-2026, down from previous estimates of **5.82 yuan**, **6.89 yuan**, and **8.00 yuan** [4] Polyurethane Business Outlook - MDI industry is expected to see improved profitability due to limited new capacity and rising demand, with Wanhua's MDI business entering a prolonged upcycle [9][12] - Global MDI demand is projected to reach **917-991 million tons** by 2027, with supply growth potentially lagging behind demand, creating a tight market [20][21] - Wanhua's cost advantage and strategic capacity expansions position it well to capitalize on the industry's recovery [33][36] Dividend Potential - Wanhua's dividend capacity is expected to improve significantly from 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditures and higher EBITDA [51][53] - The company's dividend payout ratio could reach **40% or higher**, translating to over **8 billion yuan** in dividends, making it attractive to income-focused investors [53][55] Industry and Competitive Landscape - Wanhua's integrated production base, comparable in scale to BASF's, supports its competitive advantage in cost and efficiency [46][48] - The company's shift towards downstream new materials and fine chemicals is expected to reduce cyclicality and improve investment returns [47][49] - Competitors like Covestro and Huntsman face financial challenges, potentially limiting their ability to expand capacity and compete effectively [25][29]