Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several key companies in the power equipment sector, including Guodian Nanrui, Siyuan Electric, and TBEA, while recommending an increase in holdings for others like Sifang Co. and China XD Electric [2][3]. Core Insights - The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period represents a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [1][9]. - The focus of this investment will be on green transformation, ultra-high voltage, distribution networks, energy storage, and digitalization, which is expected to significantly support the performance of related companies [1][9]. - The report highlights the increasing pressure on power consumption and the need for a new power system, emphasizing ultra-high voltage and energy storage as critical solutions to address this challenge [1][13][21]. Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the power equipment sector is 308, with a total market capitalization of 7,728.9 billion yuan [3]. - The absolute performance of the power equipment and new energy sector has shown significant growth, with a 63.1% increase over 12 months [5]. Key Company Analysis - Guodian Nanrui is recognized as a leader in secondary equipment with strong technology barriers and stable operations, expected to see significant growth in high-voltage and system stability businesses [26]. - Siyuan Electric has established a comprehensive product system and service network in overseas markets, with a notable increase in overseas revenue [26]. - China XD Electric benefits from increased capital expenditure in domestic main networks and ultra-high voltage projects, with a growing presence in international markets [27]. - TBEA is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, and is expected to benefit from ongoing power construction projects [28]. - Other notable companies include XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and Igor, each with unique strengths and growth prospects in the evolving power equipment landscape [29][30][31].

Core Insights - China's transformer exports are projected to reach a record high of 64.6 billion RMB in 2025, marking a nearly 36% increase from the previous year, driven by global shortages and rising prices in the power equipment market [1] - The average export price per transformer has risen to 205,000 RMB, reflecting a one-third increase year-on-year, amidst significant global demand for transformer infrastructure [1] - The global investment in power grids is expected to exceed 480 billion USD in 2024, with strong growth momentum anticipated in the coming years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand surge for transformers is primarily driven by the modernization of aging power grids and a global boom in data center construction, with the global data center market projected to grow from 242.72 billion USD in 2024 to 584.86 billion USD by 2032 [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the delivery cycle for power transformers will remain high through 2025, with the U.S. expected to face a 30% supply shortfall in transformer demand [5][6] - The price index for global power transformers has increased 1.5 times since 2020, with some complex models reaching prices 2.6 times higher than pre-pandemic levels [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain and Investment - China's transformer exports account for one-quarter of the global market, with significant reliance from Europe and the U.S. on imports due to severe shortages [10] - The State Grid of China has announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at building a new power system [10] - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh by 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, which will further support domestic demand for transformers [10]

Market Overview - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year by 2025, with A-shares showing mixed performance today; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to 4114 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3500 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The State Grid announced that fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, leading to a surge in the electric grid equipment sector, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit [2][6] - Precious metals stocks performed strongly, with Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Mining both hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also seeing significant gains [4][5] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks surged, with Hainan Development hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Shen Nong Agriculture and Jinpan Technology also showing strong performance [8][9] - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with stocks like Oke Yi and Can Neng Electric hitting the daily limit, driven by successful tests of a manned spacecraft by Beijing Chuan Yue Technology [10][11] Notable Declines - The Kimi concept and AI corpus sectors saw declines, with stocks like People's Daily and Vision China hitting the daily limit down [2] - Communication equipment stocks faced significant losses, with Ruijie Networks dropping over 12% and other stocks like Cambridge Technology and Oriental Communication hitting the daily limit down [12][14] - Baogang Co. experienced a sharp decline of 5.2% following an explosion at its plate factory, resulting in casualties and production disruptions [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition to a volatile trend after reaching previous highs, with increased focus on earnings disclosures as January progresses. Companies with better-than-expected earnings or those that stabilize post-disclosure are likely to attract attention [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of sectors such as chemicals, steel, energy storage, and power grid equipment, with the National Free Cash Flow Index rising by 1.4% as of 14:35 on January 19 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Pinggao Electric reached the daily limit, Weichai Power increased by over 7%, and both Chint Electric and Inner Mongolia Erdos rose by over 5% [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF, E Fund (159222), saw a net subscription of 3 million units during the trading session, achieving net subscriptions on 9 out of the last 10 trading days [1] Group 2 - The National Free Cash Flow Index selects stocks based on free cash flow rate and adjusts quarterly, with the top three industries being automotive, oil and petrochemicals, and home appliances, focusing on high-quality "cash cow" companies that offer strong defensive attributes [1] - The E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF aims to achieve excess returns through refined management while closely tracking the National Free Cash Flow Index, reporting an excess return of 2.43% relative to the index over the past six months, ranking first among peers, with a tracking error of only 0.06% [1] - The management fee rate for the ETF is set at 0.15% per year, providing investors with a low-cost tool for core allocation in a volatile market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for smart grid stocks has shown significant strength, with multiple companies experiencing substantial gains following the announcement of a major investment plan by the State Grid Corporation of China [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Smart grid stocks collectively surged, with notable gains including: - Shuangjie Electric up over 17% - Electric Power Research Institute up over 15% - Hongxiang Co., Huasu Technology up over 10% - Several other companies including Hanlan Co., Dalian Electric Porcelain, and others hitting the daily limit up [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by strong investment forecasts and demand in the sector [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - The State Grid Corporation has projected a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with an average annual investment of 800 billion yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) approaching double digits [1] - Investment will focus on the construction of a new power system, aiming to enhance cross-regional and cross-provincial transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the previous plan [1] Group 3: Export Growth - The North American market is experiencing a surge in demand for power equipment driven by aging infrastructure and increased electricity needs from AI data centers, leading to a significant rise in delivery times for transformers and high-voltage cables [1] - From January to November 2025, China's exports of transformers, high-voltage switches, and wires and cables are expected to grow by 35.3%, 29.4%, and 22.9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong international market presence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The high-voltage power equipment sector is experiencing significant activity, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up due to increased investment and demand in the domestic power grid sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - Six stocks in the high-voltage equipment sector hit the daily limit up, including Electric Power Research Institute, Han Cable, Senyuan Electric, Dalian Electric Porcelain, Jicheng Electronics, and Fengfan [1]. - Electric Power Research Institute saw a rise of over 14%, while other companies like Han Cable and Senyuan Electric increased by over 10% [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The core logic behind the market speculation is the overall improvement in the high-voltage industry, driven by a significant expansion in domestic power grid investment and breakthroughs in domestic core technologies [2][3]. - The State Grid Corporation of China has projected fixed asset investments to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on building a smarter and greener power grid [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Recent developments include the successful trial operation of a domestically developed series of AC filter protection and converter protection devices by XJ Electric, marking a significant technological breakthrough in the high-voltage sector [3]. - The global transformer market is facing a notable supply shortage, with North America experiencing a 30% gap, which presents growth opportunities for domestic companies in the export market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Citic Securities recommends focusing on leading domestic power equipment companies closely related to the investment climate in the domestic power grid and major projects like high-voltage and flexible DC [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share power grid equipment sector has experienced a significant rally, driven by multiple factors including policy support, expanding demand, and technological advancements [1][2]. Policy Support - The National Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, equating to an average annual investment of 800 billion yuan [2]. - The investment from the Southern Power Grid is expected to push the national average annual fixed asset investment to over 1 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Market Demand - The increasing share of renewable energy installations necessitates upgrades to the power grid to address issues like "abandoning wind and solar" and ensure stable electricity delivery [2]. - The explosion in AI computing power is creating new electricity consumption demands, with the International Energy Agency predicting that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030, benefiting the power grid equipment sector [2]. Technological Advancements - Innovations such as solid-state transformers and flexible DC transmission are accelerating the industry's transition from traditional manufacturing to high-end intelligent manufacturing, with a critical validation phase expected by 2026 [2]. - The industry is projected to exceed a market size of 2 trillion yuan by 2025, characterized by steady overall growth and increasing structural differentiation [2]. Industry Outlook - Leading companies with technological expertise and strong order reserves are expected to maintain stable performance and competitive advantages, with stocks like TBEA and China XD Electric likely to reach new highs by 2025 [2]. - Key growth areas include ultra-high voltage, digitalization of the power grid, and equipment exports, with companies such as Sifang Co., TBEA, and China XD Electric poised to benefit from these trends [3].

Group 1 - Sanbian Technology has achieved a four-day consecutive increase in stock price [1] - Baobian Electric has seen a two-day consecutive increase in stock price [1] - Pinggao Electric, Xinlian Electronics, and Siyuan Electric have reached the daily limit increase [1] Group 2 - Shuangjie Electric, Guodian Nanzi, China West Electric, and Ankao Intelligent Electric have also experienced price increases [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Greater China Electrical Equipment Sector Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Greater China Electrical Equipment sector, focusing on the State Grid's capital expenditure (capex) plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030E) [1][2]. Key Points State Grid Capex Plans - State Grid has budgeted its capex to reach Rmb4 trillion in the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is approximately 40% higher than the Rmb2.8 trillion allocated in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) [1][2][9]. - This increase in capex is expected to facilitate the development of a new power grid platform aimed at enhancing clean energy usage [1][3]. Growth Projections - The projected capex translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the next five years, which is higher than the 5.9% year-on-year growth of PRC power grid capex reported in the first eleven months of 2025 [1][9]. - The capex increase is anticipated to boost non-fossil energy consumption in China to 25% by 2030, up from 16% in 2020 and 20% in 2025 [3]. Infrastructure Development - The capex will be allocated towards building a new power grid platform that integrates main, distribution, and micro-grids, along with enhancing ultra-high voltage (UHV) DC transmission lines to improve inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the 14th FYP [4]. - There will also be a focus on accelerating the construction of distribution networks and off-grid micro-grid models, as well as developing digital and intelligent infrastructure [4]. Company Feedback - NARI Technology Co. and Pinggao Electric expressed that the Rmb4 trillion capex exceeds their previous estimates, indicating a positive outlook for new orders from State Grid [7][8]. - Both companies expect increased demand for high voltage and power distribution equipment over the next five years due to the capex increase [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PRC power grid equipment sector, identifying it as a preferred sub-sector within the renewable, utility, and power grid equipment space in PRC/HK [1]. - Buy ratings are reiterated for companies including Sieyuan, Pinggao, XJ Electric, and NARI, based on their expected benefits from the increased capex [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for Pinggao include potential delays in the approval process for UHV transmission line projects, lower-than-expected raw material cost reductions, and lower-than-expected PRC grid capex [12]. - For NARI, risks include lower-than-expected market demand and delays in project schedules [14]. - Sieyuan faces similar risks, including lower-than-expected PRC grid capex and higher raw material costs [16]. Conclusion - The significant increase in State Grid's capex is expected to drive growth in the electrical equipment sector, particularly benefiting companies closely tied to State Grid. The focus on clean energy and infrastructure development aligns with China's broader energy transition goals.