Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]

2025 年 6 月公司实现签约面积 26.2 万平方米，同比下降 41.39%；实现签约 金额 31.0 亿元，同比下降 53.24%。 股票代码：600383 股票简称：金地集团 公告编号：2025-027 金地（集团）股份有限公司 科 学 筑 家 关于公司2025年6月份销售情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 2025 年 1-6 月公司累计实现签约面积 125.4 万平方米，同比下降 47.84%； 累计实现签约金额 171.5 亿元，同比下降 52.52%。 特此公告。 金地（集团）股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 12 日 ...

金地集团（600383）公告，2025年6月公司实现签约面积26.2万平方米，同比下降41.39%；实现签约金 额31亿元，同比下降53.24%。2025年1-6月公司累计实现签约面积125.4万平方米，同比下降47.84%；累 计实现签约金额171.5亿元，同比下降52.52%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector experienced a significant increase of 3.19% on July 10, with a net inflow of 2.228 billion yuan in capital, indicating strong investor interest in this industry [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% on July 10, with 18 out of 28 sectors showing gains. The leading sectors were real estate and oil & petrochemicals, with increases of 3.19% and 1.54% respectively [1]. - Conversely, the automotive and media sectors faced declines of 0.62% and 0.54% respectively [1]. Capital Flow Analysis - The non-bank financial sector led the net capital inflow with 3.470 billion yuan, followed by the real estate sector with 2.228 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 21 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the electronics sector seeing the largest outflow of 4.899 billion yuan, followed by the automotive sector with an outflow of 2.812 billion yuan [1]. Real Estate Sector Details - Within the real estate sector, 98 out of 102 stocks rose, with 7 hitting the daily limit up. The top stocks by net capital inflow included Vanke A (2.8574 billion yuan), Quzhou Development (2.0580 billion yuan), and Poly Development (1.8826 billion yuan) [2][3]. - The stocks with the highest net capital outflows included *ST Nanzhi (-23.9877 million yuan), Hainan Airport (-19.1944 million yuan), and Waigaoqiao (-18.9742 million yuan) [2][4]. Top Gainers in Real Estate - The top gainers in the real estate sector included: - Vanke A: +3.36%, 285.747 million yuan net inflow [3] - Quzhou Development: +6.11%, 205.806 million yuan net inflow [3] - Poly Development: +2.33%, 188.262 million yuan net inflow [3] Top Losers in Real Estate - The top losers in the real estate sector included: - *ST Nanzhi: -1.95%, -23.9877 million yuan net outflow [4] - Hainan Airport: +1.10%, -19.1944 million yuan net outflow [4] - Waigaoqiao: +1.18%, -18.9742 million yuan net outflow [4]

Group 1 - The real estate sector is experiencing strong performance, with multiple stocks showing significant gains, including Nanshan Holdings achieving a continuous rise for 7 days [1] - Policy measures are being implemented to support the real estate market, with over 150 measures introduced nationwide to optimize housing provident fund policies [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting healthy development [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on targeted and precise policy implementation is crucial for maintaining market stability, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of these policies [2] - There is a notable inflow of funds into the real estate sector, with a net inflow of 9.17 billion yuan on July 7, contributing to a 1.68% increase in the sector [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21% respectively, with over 3200 stocks rising overall [1][3] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding, electric power, real estate, and internet e-commerce sectors performed strongly, while the biopharmaceuticals, weight loss drugs, and AI mobile phone sectors saw significant declines [1][3] Notable Stocks - Real estate stocks surged, with companies like Yucheng Development, Shahe Shares, and Nanshan Holdings hitting the daily limit, while others like Haitai Development and JinDi Group also saw gains [3] - Electric power stocks experienced a notable rally, with nearly 10 stocks including Shaoneng Shares and Huayin Electric reaching the daily limit [3] Stock Price Movements - Significant stock price increases included: - Disen Shares (+18.56% to 7.09) - Nanguang Technology (+14.72% to 35.46) - Shaoneng Shares (+10.07% to 6.12) - Huayin Electric (+10.02% to 6.70) - Shimao Energy (+10.01% to 21.00) [4] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the real estate and banking sectors, while education and engineering machinery sectors experienced net outflows [5] - Individual stocks with notable net inflows included Qingdao Kingking, Tianyu Digital Science, and Hailian Jinhui, attracting 642 million, 611 million, and 514 million respectively [6] - Stocks facing significant net outflows included Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Dongfang Caifu, with outflows of 692 million, 496 million, and 378 million respectively [7] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities highlighted the mid-year reporting period as a critical window for identifying structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of performance-driven investments in sectors like solid-state batteries, copper, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [8] - Guo Cheng Investment noted that small-cap stocks are under pressure due to new regulations on algorithmic trading, which may lead to decreased liquidity in this segment [8] - Zhongxin Jian Investment pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since 2025, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and positive mid-year earnings forecasts [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 21% compared to the previous year. The total sales area was 16.8 million square meters, down 30% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to May [2] - The cumulative sales for the first half of the year for the top 100 companies decreased by 11% to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline in the second quarter after a temporary stabilization in the first quarter due to policy effects [2] - The report anticipates that the launch of more "good housing" in core cities will lead to a hot market in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to experience low transaction volumes [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a significant decline, with the top 10 companies experiencing a 26% drop in sales, while the second and third tiers saw declines of 13% and 18% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the sales decline is expected to narrow in 2025 due to improved housing quality and stability in new home prices in high-energy cities [2] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive pressure of high-value new homes on the second-hand market, emphasizing that the advantages of new homes stem from local government concessions on land prices and planning [3] - It notes that the second-hand housing market has seen a significant drop in transaction volume since April, with new residential prices in 70 cities declining by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year as of May [3] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that there is a high likelihood of new supportive policies being introduced in the third quarter, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where there is still room for relaxation of purchase restrictions [3] - Potential policy measures include easing of provident fund withdrawal policies and monetary policy support, which could stimulate short-term market recovery [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong price elasticity, including Beike-W (02423, Buy), Jindi Group (600383, Increase), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), Poly Development (600048, Buy), and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [7]

Group 1 - The company provides a guarantee for a loan of 1.6 billion RMB to its subsidiary, Nanjing Weipan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., which is developing a project in Nanjing [1][3] - The loan application is made to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with a maximum financing term of 15 years [1][3] - The guarantee covers the principal amount, interest, penalties, and other related costs, with a guarantee period of three years from the contract's effective date [3][5] Group 2 - The company has authorized a total guarantee limit of 25 billion RMB for the year 2025, which includes guarantees for its subsidiaries [2] - The current guarantee falls within the authorized limit and does not require additional board or shareholder meetings for approval [2][5] - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance is 17.735 billion RMB, representing 30.04% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders [5]