Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Tianrun Dairy's short-term performance improvement is primarily reliant on non-recurring gains, while the core business still faces significant industry pressures [1][2] - In the first half of the year, Tianrun Dairy's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -18 million to -26 million yuan, showing a slight reduction in losses compared to -27.91 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The expected non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 46 million to 67 million yuan, representing a significant year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - The challenges faced by Tianrun Dairy reflect common issues within the domestic dairy industry, with national dairy product consumption growth at only 1.8% in the first half of 2025, marking one of the lowest levels in recent years [2] - Despite leveraging its milk source advantages in Xinjiang and launching innovative products, Tianrun Dairy still encounters fierce competition from leading companies like Yili and Mengniu in expanding markets [2] - Rising costs due to fluctuations in feed prices and increased environmental investments continue to pressure the company's profitability, despite a high self-sufficiency rate of over 90% in milk sources [2] Group 3 - In response to these challenges, the company aims to enhance sales, improve quality, and optimize costs through product structure upgrades, supply chain digitization, and refined management of dairy farming [3] - The effectiveness of these strategic initiatives will require time to validate [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co., Ltd. is forecasting a net loss for the first half of 2025, with expected losses between 26 million yuan and 18 million yuan, while also projecting a net profit (excluding non-recurring losses) between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -26 million yuan and -18 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after excluding non-recurring losses, is projected to be between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of -44.04 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at -27.91 million yuan, and a net profit of 2.39 million yuan after excluding non-recurring losses [3]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.0885 yuan [3]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The anticipated performance decline is attributed to several factors: increased disposal of low-yield dairy cows leading to higher losses, losses from the sale of bulk milk powder, accounting provisions for biological asset impairment, and increased market investment support [3].

[Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co., Ltd. H1 2025 Preliminary Loss Announcement](index=1&type=section&id=%E6%96%B0%E7%96%86%E5%A4%A9%E6%B6%A6%E4%B9%B3%E4%B8%9A%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%BD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B82025%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E4%BA%8F%E5%85%AC%E5%91%8A) [Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5) The company forecasts a narrowed net loss for H1 2025 while expecting growth in net profit after non-recurring items H1 2025 Performance Forecast vs H1 2024 Actuals | Financial Metric | H1 2025 Forecast (RMB) | H1 2024 Actual (RMB) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners** | -26 million to -18 million | -27.91 million | | **Net Profit After Non-recurring Items** | 46 million to 67 million | 23.95 million | - The company explicitly states an expected **"loss reduction"** in net profit attributable to parent company owners compared to the same period last year[5](index=5&type=chunk) - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Prior Year Period Operating Performance and Financial Status](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%90%8C%E6%9C%9F%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E5%92%8C%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E7%8A%B6%E5%86%B5) The company reported a net loss of 27.91 million RMB and earnings per share of -0.0885 RMB for the same period in 2024 H1 2024 Key Financial Data | Metric | Amount (RMB) | | :--- | :--- | | Total Profit | -44.05 million | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners | -27.91 million | | Net Profit After Non-recurring Items | 23.95 million | | Earnings Per Share (EPS) | -0.0885 | [Main Reasons for the Forecasted Loss](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E4%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0) The forecasted loss is attributed to the disposal of low-yield cows, losses from bulk milk powder sales, and increased market investments - Key operational factors contributing to the current period's forecasted loss include[11](index=11&type=chunk): - Increased losses from the accelerated disposal of low-yield dairy cows - Losses from the sale of bulk milk powder - Impairment provisions for biological assets - Increased investment and support for market expansion [Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E6%8F%90%E7%A4%BA) The company confirms no other significant uncertainties are expected to affect the accuracy of this performance forecast - The company states that there are no other uncertain factors that could materially affect the accuracy of this performance forecast[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Other Explanatory Notes](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%BA%94%E3%80%81%E5%85%B6%E4%BB%96%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E%E4%BA%8B%E9%A1%B9) The company advises that these figures are preliminary and the final data will be in the official H1 2025 report - Investors are advised that the forecast data is preliminary, and the final, accurate financial data will be disclosed in the company's official H1 2025 semi-annual report[13](index=13&type=chunk)

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a significant oversupply of raw milk, leading to a slowdown in the culling of dairy cows. The current contract milk price is 3.04 CNY/kg, while spot milk prices are below 2.5 CNY/kg, indicating financial strain on dairy farms [7] - The report suggests that the culling of dairy cows may accelerate in the near future due to increasing operational pressures on farms, with spot milk prices dropping to around 2.3 CNY/kg [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - For the farm sector, it is recommended to focus on Yuran Dairy (09858, Buy), which is the largest farm enterprise and is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and the recovery of dairy cow fair value. The report also suggests paying attention to leading farm Modern Dairy (01117, Not Rated) [2] - In the dairy enterprise sector, the report recommends Tianrun Dairy (600419, Not Rated), Yili Group (600887, Buy), and Mengniu Dairy (02319, Buy). The current low milk prices and intense competition in the dairy product market are expected to improve as milk prices recover, benefiting both Yili and Mengniu [2]

Industry Overview - Ice cream is a frozen food made primarily from drinking water, milk, cream, sugar, and food additives, produced through various processes [1][6] - The domestic ice cream industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with market size projected to increase from 83.9 billion yuan in 2015 to 183.5 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027 [1][6][8] Market Dynamics - The average per capita ice cream consumption in China is 2.9 kg, which is higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 2.1 kg but still below the global average of 4.5 kg, indicating significant growth potential for the market [8] - Consumer acceptance of ice cream prices generally falls between 3 to 10 yuan, with 70.9% of consumers preferring this price range, while higher-priced ice creams face lower acceptance [10] Consumer Preferences - In 2025, 64.29% of consumers expressed interest in fruit and herb flavors, while 47.61% preferred nut and spice flavors, indicating a trend towards innovative flavor combinations [12] - Health-conscious trends are driving demand for low-sugar, low-fat, and additive-free ice cream products, with functional ice creams like probiotic and collagen varieties gaining popularity [20] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in the Chinese ice cream market include Yili, Unilever (Wall's), Mengniu, and Nestlé, with market shares of 19%, 15%, 9%, and 8% respectively [14] - New brands and traditional companies are entering the market, intensifying competition [14] Development Trends - The ice cream industry is witnessing a diversification of flavors and forms, with companies innovating to meet changing consumer preferences [21] - The expansion of online sales channels, driven by e-commerce and cold chain logistics, is providing broader market access for ice cream products [23]

Core Viewpoint - The company has issued convertible bonds, which have entered the conversion period, with limited conversion activity observed so far [2][5]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance Overview - The company issued 9.9 million convertible bonds with a total value of 990 million yuan, with a maturity of 6 years and a tiered interest rate starting from 0.30% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [3]. - The bonds were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and began trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 15, 2024, under the name "Tianrun Convertible Bonds" [3]. Group 2: Conversion Status - As of June 30, 2025, a total of 115,000 yuan worth of "Tianrun Convertible Bonds" has been converted into 13,839 shares, representing 0.00432% of the company's total shares before conversion [2][5]. - The remaining unconverted amount of "Tianrun Convertible Bonds" is 989,885,000 yuan, accounting for 99.98838% of the total issuance [2][5]. Group 3: Conversion Price Adjustment - The initial conversion price was set at 8.30 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 8.28 yuan per share effective June 27, 2025, due to the company's annual equity distribution [4].

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：临 2025-033 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于 2025 年第二季度可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 累计转股情况："天润转债"自 2025 年 4 月 30 日起进入转股期，截至 2025 年6月30日，累计转股金额为115,000.00元，累计因转股形成的股份数量为13,839 股，占可转债转股前公司已发行股份总额的 0.00432%。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，尚未转股的"天润转债"金 额为 989,885,000.00 元，占"天润转债"发行总量的 99.98838%。 本季度转股情况：2025 年第二季度，"天润转债"转股的金额为 115,000.00 元，因转股形成的股份数量为 13,839 股。 一、可转债发行上市概况 经 ...

Group 1 - Xinjiang Terun Dairy Co., Ltd. issued 9.9 million convertible bonds with a total fundraising amount of RMB 990 million, net proceeds amounting to RMB 979.31 million after deducting issuance costs [2][4][12] - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 15, 2024, under the name "Terun Convertible Bonds" with the code "110097" [2][4] - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 8.30 per share, which will be adjusted to RMB 8.28 per share due to the company's profit distribution plan [5][15] Group 2 - The company reported a revenue of RMB 280.43 million for 2024, a 3.33% increase from RMB 271.40 million in 2023, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 69.26% to RMB 43.66 million [13][14] - The company operates in the dairy processing industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of dairy products and beverages, with a complete industry chain [13][14] - The company has 26 large-scale breeding farms with approximately 64,800 cattle, ensuring a stable supply of high-quality milk [13]

证券代码：600419 证券简称：天润乳业 债券代码：110097 债券简称：天润转债 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办 法》"）《新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2023 年向不特定对象发行可转换公司债 券之受托管理协议》（以下简称"《受托管理协议》"）《新疆天润乳业股份 有限公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集 说明书》"）《新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息 披露文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业意见等，由本期债券受托管理人中信建 投证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信建投证券"）编制。中信建投证券对本 报告中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证，也不就该等引 述内容和信息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相 关事宜做出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为中信建投证券所 作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下 ...